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Earlier this week, we used granular batted ball data to calculate true-talent team records for American League clubs as of the All Star break. Today, it’s the senior circuit’s turn in the barrel.

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The Nationals just exploded offensively against the Brewers, winning 15-2. It might be hard to believe, but it could have been worse as all 15 Nationals runs were scored in the first four innings. One inning in particular stands out as the Nationals hit five home runs in the third inning on their way to a seven-run inning. It might be hard to believe, but the inning didn’t appear to be a particularly promising one from the beginning as Max Scherzer and his .185/.215/.200 slash line led off. Here’s how the inning went down, per the FanGraphs play log.

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In this series of articles, I have analyzed the changes in the free agent market since I last did public analysis on the topic over three years ago. I have found that teams no longer are overpaying by as much for “Other People’s Players” or for relievers. In my 2013 Hardball Times Annual article, I found a number of other types of players for which teams over- or underpaid relative to value, and those are the players I will be reviewing in my next two articles. In today’s article, I will focus on hitters.

Teams were already pretty smart about spending relative to value on hitters when I looked at free agent spending for hitters back in that piece. However, the main discovery about position players that I found was that defense and baserunning tended to be under-compensated by the free-agent market. I had suspected at the time that I began researching that article that teams would overpay for power hitters, but I found that this was not true once I controlled for position group (which I lump roughly into defense-first positions of catcher, second base, third base, and shortstop, and offense-first positions of first base, outfield, and designated hitter).
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Earlier this week, I examined the Rafael Devers call up and the void that has been the Red Sox’ third base production for what seems like forever. But I also looked at the weakest position player units among the contenders such as the Rockies’ right field situation (and catcher, and first base and shortstop positions) and the Yankees’ first base production.

But another notable production void among contenders, particularly among division leaders with aspirations of playing deep into October, is the Nationals’ catching situation. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not supposed to embed pictures or videos above the fold. (We have a fold.) So I’m going to get right to it, inserting an early page break so I can show you a clip from last night. Turns out Wednesday was Brandon Morrow’s 33rd birthday! He was asked by the Dodgers to handle the seventh inning of what would turn into a dramatic come-from-behind victory. Morrow set the Twins down 1-2-3. Below, a pitch that he threw to Brian Dozier.

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Wednesday night, Justin Smoak hit another home run. It was a rather big home run, a dramatic ninth-inning home run, but as far as these purposes are concerned, all that matters is that a home run happened, nevermind the context. A couple months ago, it looked like Smoak could be breaking out, at last. He hasn’t slowed down even the tiniest bit. He’s been one of the more dangerous hitters in all of baseball, and for as much as the Blue Jays’ season has gone down the toilet, Smoak’s made for a great story. His career WAR is 3.4. His 2017 WAR is 3.1.

I’ve been thinking about Smoak a lot. But then, there are also other dots to connect. A story that’s similar to Smoak’s is that of Logan Morrison. In the AL West, Yonder Alonso has turned himself into an offensive weapon. There’s also been the unexpected breakout of Marwin Gonzalez, and while I don’t want to just go down a list name by name, there have been other big surges, and also a number of shocking collapses. Carlos Gonzalez has fallen apart. Jonathan Lucroy, too. Names and more names and more names.

It feels like hitters have been particularly unpredictable. But there could be a strong element of recency bias — I remember this year’s studies the best, and examinations tend to focus on the biggest surprises. So I tried to dig into the numbers. Turns out it’s more than just a hunch.

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Heading into last night’s start, the Rangers were reportedly still undecided on what to do with Yu Darvish at the trade deadline. At 49-51, they weren’t exactly playing like a postseason contender, but the mediocrity of the American League means they’re still in the Wild Card race, which would point towards keeping their ace to try and make a run. But in a market saturated with low-end arms, Darvish would be the rare premium starting pitcher available, and the team could potentially land a significant return for a player they might lose in free agency this winter.

So with a bunch of scouts on hand, the team had to hope Darvish would give them some clarity. Instead, his start only made things more confusing.

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Interviews are often meandering things that you have to corral in order to make sense of anything. Every once in a while, though, you get a player with a cadence that should remain unbroken and a subject that provides them with a runway — why stand in the way? I once did this with J.D. Martinez, who has taken to this game in a mechanical manner and told us how he came to his realizations about how he should best play baseball. Now let’s let Andrew McCutchen talk about how he got his mojo back, in only the way he can. It’s a very different approach, but there’s a beauty in that I’d rather not sully with my own words.

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