2020 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

Don’t look away in cringing horror; the pitching projections are worse!

ZiPS actually projects every position to be above replacement level, which is something. If you’re a skeptic, you might just say that’s only because Trey Mancini is projected to get playing time at first and in right field, and while that’s accurate, can’t you just be nice for a few minutes?

You could probably call the Austin Hays‘ forecast a pleasant one, though obviously it’s not quite on the level of his .309/.373/.574 line from his 21-game stint with the parent club. Hays was clearly overmatched in his initial cup of joe in the majors in 2017, but the Orioles also promoted him very aggressively that season and he was never the sort of prospect you’d expect to skip Triple-A without issues. There’s also the possibility that his adequate line is underrating him; injuries create a lot of uncertainty and his 2018 season and much of his 2019 were marred by ankle and thumb injuries.

Yes, José Iglesias is one of the best players on the team. The team’s official position is that he’s keeping the seat warm while they see how Richie Martin develops at Triple-A, but in truth, Iglesias is in Charm City because the O’s don’t really have anything there. Martin’s 25, not 22, and the next O’s starting shortstop to have positive value is either in the much lower levels of the minor leagues or not in the system yet.

I’m increasingly confused as to why Chris Davis is on the team. He has no offensive value, no defensive value, and tried to go after manager Brandon Hyde in the dugout (true to form, Davis didn’t get a hit here either). Even worse, Davis at first leaves Trey Mancini playing the outfield, which he does awkwardly, and blocks the most obvious play to place Ryan Mountcastle. And while I don’t think Mountcastle would actually be good, he’s better than Davis and actually has a future. Orioles, the money is gone; this is just sad.

Pitchers

There were a number of ways I could have gone about talking about the Oriole pitching. I could have left the section blank and hoped that my generous and understanding editor would take it as my normal amusitating schtick and let me slide. Or I could have compared their pitching to some battle or war because I’m a military history buff and nobody else is paying me to write about the Battle of Flodden. Or I could just filibuster the pitching projections, hoping that I could hit my word limit and shift right into the prospects without anybody noticing.

Let’s just pull off the Band-Aid.

The O’s are going to allow a lot of runs this year. They allowed a lot of runs last year, including the most homers allowed in the history of baseball, but there were brief respites of adequacy in the rotation. Dylan Bundy was effective in spurts, Andrew Cashner kept his ERA under four until another team was tricked into believing in him, and John Means did enough to finish second in the Rookie of the Year voting.

Bundy’s gone, Cashner’s gone, and while Means’ outlook is better than Jeff Ballard after the latter’s 18-8, 3.43 ERA season (62 strikeouts in 215.1 innings), some regression toward the mean is inevitable. ZiPS will need to see more 2019s from Means before it believes he’ll keep outperforming his peripherals; he didn’t outperform them in the minors, after all, where a junk-thrower ought to have an easier time doing so.

I wouldn’t be excited by Alex Cobb’s 2020 projection (5.15 ERA, 0.8 FIP), but as with Hays, Cobb has been injured so much that it’s hard to know exactly what the team has in him. I’m still a believer that he has something left and if he does, the O’s may be able to flip him this summer. But even if the O’s get nothing for Cobb, I’d really like to see him get his career back on track to where he was in 2014, when he was one of the best mid-20s pitchers in baseball.

The bullpen is less dire, where five pitchers are projected to have an ERA+ over 100 (average for a reliever is usually around 106-110). ZiPS remains optimistic about Tanner Scott, one of the two most prominent pitchers to have a bimodal projection (all highs and lows, with less in the middle). For those curious, the other is Michael Kopech.

If the pitching stays healthy and everyone matches their depth chart outlook, the O’s would actually see their pitching WAR improve by 0.5 wins compared to 2019!

Prospects

Adley Rutschman! I wouldn’t typically give an official projection for Rutschman given his lack of professional experience and the fact that he’s only played 12 games above short-season A-ball. But he’s already 22, the consensus best hitter in the draft, and it’s likely he’ll advance very quickly through the system if things work out. The error bars for this projection are massive, of course.

Hopefully, the Rutschman projection errors are on the good side because the O’s haven’t received much of that from their upper minors prospects. Mountcastle and Yusniel Díaz haven’t dropped completely out of prospect lists, but ZiPS is down on both. Hitting .312/.344/.527, Mountcastle’s line would have looked terrific in a normal year, especially when it’s in the International League rather than the Pacific Coast League. But the high minors got the juicy ball last year and offense exploded even in the IL, which tends to be the more pitcher-friendly league by a considerable margin.

Mountcastle’s Triple-A line only amounted to a wRC+ of 117, meaning he was essentially an average Triple-A first baseman. Average Triple-A first basemen don’t tend to crush it in the majors. Unless Mountcastle’s bat explodes this year, I’d be inclined to see if he can become halfway adequate at third base. As for Díaz, he needs to stay healthy and continue hitting at Triple-A because, at this point, he’s looking more like a fourth outfielder type long-term, at least from a projection standpoint.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Trey Mancini R 28 RF 644 582 83 159 30 3 31 92 51 149 1 0
Austin Hays R 24 CF 505 476 61 119 24 2 21 67 22 114 9 6
Jose Iglesias R 30 SS 515 485 56 129 27 2 8 51 21 61 8 5
Hanser Alberto R 27 2B 527 503 54 140 19 2 12 47 14 50 3 4
Adley Rutschman B 22 C 645 581 69 131 27 0 18 64 52 143 6 0
Rio Ruiz L 26 3B 512 461 54 109 21 3 14 57 47 116 1 2
Dilson Herrera R 26 2B 431 391 51 88 18 1 18 53 32 125 8 5
Renato Nunez R 26 DH 573 519 69 125 25 1 29 85 42 143 1 1
Cedric Mullins B 25 CF 600 547 67 128 26 5 14 55 39 113 22 6
Chance Sisco L 25 C 395 346 47 82 16 0 13 44 34 117 1 1
Jose Rondon R 26 SS 376 350 41 83 16 2 13 44 20 94 5 4
Pat Valaika R 27 2B 433 403 47 88 20 2 16 45 23 127 3 2
Martin Cervenka R 27 C 342 314 33 66 12 1 9 32 21 104 1 0
Austin Wynns R 29 C 337 308 36 74 10 0 7 28 22 65 0 0
Mason Williams L 28 CF 503 462 54 118 16 3 12 46 33 98 6 6
Anthony Santander B 25 RF 576 536 63 135 29 2 20 71 29 120 4 4
Ryan Mountcastle R 23 1B 532 505 63 132 23 2 20 70 20 121 2 1
Carlos Perez R 29 C 357 333 34 72 16 1 10 40 16 63 1 1
Rylan Bannon R 24 3B 513 459 55 102 21 3 14 50 44 120 5 4
DJ Stewart L 26 LF 491 430 60 99 21 2 17 60 49 113 8 5
Pedro Severino R 26 C 338 307 33 71 12 0 10 37 25 71 3 1
Brett Cumberland B 25 C 337 289 36 54 13 1 9 31 32 110 0 2
Dwight Smith Jr. L 27 LF 436 394 48 95 21 2 12 50 33 90 7 3
Richie Martin Jr. R 25 SS 412 375 40 81 14 4 7 31 24 102 12 5
Jesus Sucre R 32 C 235 218 17 51 9 0 2 18 10 37 1 0
Ryan McKenna R 23 CF 569 508 64 116 21 4 11 49 47 138 17 11
Mason McCoy R 25 SS 559 520 53 120 17 6 4 36 32 120 8 3
Steve Wilkerson B 28 2B 374 342 38 76 15 1 8 32 23 110 5 4
Mark Trumbo R 34 RF 420 390 51 92 17 0 23 58 28 110 1 0
Jesmuel Valentin B 26 SS 414 374 41 81 15 2 7 34 33 104 6 4
Jack Reinheimer R 27 SS 432 391 43 86 14 2 5 29 34 96 11 5
Yusniel Diaz R 23 RF 413 373 47 89 16 4 12 45 37 97 2 7
Chris Bostick R 27 2B 487 442 52 105 22 3 10 47 33 119 6 5
Angelo Mora B 27 3B 369 345 34 79 15 3 6 32 20 92 4 2
Engelb Vielma B 26 SS 308 277 25 55 9 2 0 13 21 77 2 4
Zach Vincej R 29 3B 413 383 38 88 16 2 6 36 21 71 2 4
Chris Davis L 34 1B 423 371 41 69 11 0 16 50 45 164 1 0
Malquin Canelo R 25 SS 485 444 43 90 18 3 5 31 30 150 9 7
Cole Billingsley L 26 CF 427 390 37 80 14 1 3 24 28 90 11 6
Ademar Rifaela L 25 LF 427 397 41 85 16 3 11 42 23 137 2 2
Jomar Reyes R 23 3B 472 452 40 102 21 0 9 42 13 101 1 1
Anderson Feliz B 28 3B 364 335 34 68 14 1 6 30 26 116 7 3
Preston Palmeiro L 25 1B 474 441 44 91 18 1 10 43 26 136 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Trey Mancini .273 .337 .495 121 .222 .318 6.2 -8 1.9 Harold Baines
Austin Hays .250 .289 .441 94 .191 .287 4.5 4 1.3 Frank Diaz
Jose Iglesias .266 .302 .379 83 .113 .291 4.2 6 1.2 Jerry Adair
Hanser Alberto .278 .300 .396 87 .117 .290 4.3 7 1.2 Luis Sojo
Adley Rutschman .225 .290 .365 76 .139 .269 3.8 3 1.0 Ramon Castro
Rio Ruiz .236 .307 .386 86 .150 .287 4.1 4 0.9 Rodney Nye
Dilson Herrera .225 .291 .414 88 .189 .282 4.1 3 0.9 Mike Bell
Renato Nunez .241 .304 .461 103 .220 .277 5.0 0 0.9 Nate Gold
Cedric Mullins .234 .287 .377 78 .143 .271 4.0 5 0.7 Cory Sullivan
Chance Sisco .237 .327 .396 95 .159 .319 4.5 -7 0.7 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jose Rondon .237 .281 .406 83 .169 .288 3.9 3 0.7 Jose Castro
Pat Valaika .218 .260 .397 75 .179 .277 3.5 7 0.5 Tim Hulett
Martin Cervenka .210 .261 .341 62 .131 .284 3.1 8 0.4 Jose Molina
Austin Wynns .240 .293 .341 72 .101 .284 3.6 3 0.4 Brian Loyd
Mason Williams .255 .305 .381 85 .126 .301 4.1 0 0.4 Skip Schumaker
Anthony Santander .252 .294 .425 92 .174 .290 4.4 1 0.3 Mark Ryal
Ryan Mountcastle .261 .291 .434 93 .172 .308 4.6 2 0.3 Domingo Martinez
Carlos Perez .216 .256 .360 65 .144 .238 3.2 5 0.2 Mike Ryan
Rylan Bannon .222 .295 .373 80 .150 .271 3.7 -1 0.1 Adam Fox
DJ Stewart .230 .316 .407 94 .177 .273 4.5 -4 0.1 Steve Goodell
Pedro Severino .231 .294 .368 78 .137 .270 3.8 -4 0.1 Alberto Castillo
Brett Cumberland .187 .297 .332 71 .145 .265 3.1 -2 0.0 Matt Treanor
Dwight Smith Jr. .241 .303 .396 88 .155 .284 4.3 -2 -0.1 Mike Dull
Richie Martin Jr. .216 .275 .331 63 .115 .278 3.2 1 -0.2 Andres Duncan
Jesus Sucre .234 .275 .303 57 .069 .274 3.0 1 -0.2 Chris Ashby
Ryan McKenna .228 .300 .350 76 .122 .292 3.6 -2 -0.2 Vince Phillips
Mason McCoy .231 .276 .310 59 .079 .293 3.0 5 -0.2 Blake Davis
Steve Wilkerson .222 .280 .342 68 .120 .304 3.2 1 -0.3 Alberto Castillo
Mark Trumbo .236 .288 .456 97 .221 .268 4.7 -9 -0.3 Alan Cockrell
Jesmuel Valentin .217 .284 .324 65 .107 .281 3.1 0 -0.3 Ricky Magdaleno
Jack Reinheimer .220 .283 .304 60 .084 .279 3.0 2 -0.3 Drew Meyer
Yusniel Diaz .239 .310 .399 91 .161 .292 4.0 -4 -0.4 Craig Cooper
Chris Bostick .238 .296 .369 79 .131 .304 3.8 -6 -0.4 Nick Green
Angelo Mora .229 .272 .342 65 .113 .296 3.3 1 -0.4 Javier Castillo
Engelb Vielma .199 .257 .245 38 .047 .275 1.9 3 -0.9 Les Dennis
Zach Vincej .230 .276 .329 63 .099 .268 3.0 -2 -0.9 Juan Castro
Chris Davis .186 .279 .345 68 .159 .277 3.2 0 -0.9 Ty Van Burkleo
Malquin Canelo .203 .256 .291 48 .088 .294 2.4 5 -1.0 Anderson Hernandez
Cole Billingsley .205 .262 .269 45 .064 .259 2.4 5 -1.0 Doug Livingston
Ademar Rifaela .214 .263 .353 65 .139 .297 3.1 0 -1.2 Jon Zeringue
Jomar Reyes .226 .256 .332 58 .106 .272 2.9 -2 -1.2 Jacob Blackwood
Anderson Feliz .203 .262 .304 53 .101 .291 2.7 -4 -1.3 Frank Kremblas
Preston Palmeiro .206 .252 .320 54 .113 .275 2.7 0 -2.0 Bernie Gonzalez

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
John Means L 27 10 10 4.78 30 27 152.7 162 81 27 37 116 4.69
Alex Cobb R 32 7 9 5.15 22 22 122.3 136 70 23 32 83 5.05
Michael Baumann R 24 7 8 5.12 25 23 114.3 116 65 16 61 97 4.90
Zac Lowther L 24 8 10 5.20 25 25 126.3 126 73 22 64 118 5.10
Tanner Scott L 25 5 4 3.78 61 0 69.0 58 29 6 39 86 3.51
Mychal Givens R 30 5 3 3.92 57 0 62.0 49 27 9 27 84 3.66
Chandler Shepherd R 27 6 8 5.22 25 22 122.3 139 71 22 40 95 4.95
Hunter Harvey R 25 5 5 4.83 32 12 78.3 79 42 14 31 75 4.78
Gabriel Ynoa R 27 6 7 5.24 36 18 127.0 147 74 22 32 79 4.94
Cole Sulser R 30 4 4 4.45 53 3 64.7 62 32 11 26 72 4.37
Paul Fry L 27 5 4 4.34 63 1 64.3 59 31 7 33 65 4.11
Richard Bleier L 33 2 2 4.06 48 0 51.0 57 23 5 8 26 3.91
Michael Rucker R 26 3 4 5.12 31 10 89.7 96 51 17 33 82 4.92
Tom Eshelman R 26 5 7 5.47 26 22 130.0 152 79 28 33 93 5.31
Bruce Zimmermann L 25 6 8 5.52 24 23 124.0 139 76 24 56 103 5.39
Shawn Armstrong R 29 2 2 4.38 58 0 61.7 56 30 8 31 67 4.20
Miguel Castro R 25 3 3 4.61 65 0 80.0 74 41 8 44 67 4.46
Dillon Tate R 26 4 5 5.40 29 11 78.3 87 47 12 31 56 4.93
Isaac Mattson R 24 5 5 4.64 46 0 75.7 73 39 9 36 65 4.44
Dean Kremer R 24 6 9 5.66 22 22 109.7 120 69 24 50 106 5.46
Rob Zastryzny L 28 4 6 5.62 24 16 97.7 109 61 20 42 82 5.45
Tim Naughton R 24 4 4 4.65 48 0 50.3 46 26 4 38 50 4.49
Tyler Erwin L 25 3 3 4.73 42 0 51.3 53 27 6 22 39 4.47
Ty Blach L 29 5 8 5.69 29 20 125.0 148 79 22 41 76 5.24
Ryan Eades R 28 3 4 5.50 27 9 70.3 75 43 13 31 57 5.28
Brandon Bailey R 25 4 6 5.73 24 18 92.7 98 59 17 54 81 5.56
Steve Wilkerson R 28 0 0 5.40 4 0 5.0 7 3 1 0 1 5.38
Kohl Stewart R 25 6 9 5.76 27 21 114.0 130 73 20 51 75 5.49
Zach Pop R 23 2 2 4.89 34 0 42.3 43 23 7 20 38 4.95
Cody Carroll R 27 3 4 5.10 40 2 65.3 62 37 9 44 68 4.91
Zach Muckenhirn L 25 4 4 4.88 46 0 59.0 58 32 8 34 56 4.77
Tanner Chleborad R 27 2 3 4.91 29 0 44.0 48 24 6 17 31 4.70
Hunter Cervenka L 30 2 2 4.96 45 0 45.3 41 25 7 28 52 4.75
Tayler Scott R 28 3 4 5.12 46 1 63.3 66 36 9 34 57 4.84
Nate Karns R 32 1 2 6.05 11 8 41.7 45 28 9 24 38 5.89
Asher Wojciechowski R 31 7 11 5.93 28 25 129.0 145 85 32 50 118 5.74
Cristian Alvarado R 25 5 8 5.78 33 13 104.3 124 67 24 25 72 5.51
Sean Gilmartin L 30 3 5 5.78 33 8 71.7 81 46 17 27 61 5.69
Eric Hanhold R 26 3 4 5.25 47 0 58.3 63 34 10 27 48 5.15
Branden Kline R 28 4 4 5.23 53 0 62.0 64 36 10 31 55 5.00
Marcos Diplan R 23 4 6 5.92 34 13 79.0 80 52 11 69 76 5.69
Evan Phillips R 25 3 3 5.26 51 0 65.0 63 38 12 40 75 5.12
Cody Sedlock R 25 3 5 6.16 21 16 80.3 89 55 15 51 63 5.94
David Hess R 26 6 10 6.05 31 21 122.0 137 82 28 47 99 5.70
Keegan Akin L 25 6 9 6.16 24 23 106.7 114 73 25 61 104 5.99
Pedro Araujo R 26 2 3 5.62 31 0 48.0 50 30 9 28 45 5.49
Brian Gonzalez L 24 4 6 6.13 25 11 83.7 95 57 18 40 63 5.91
Dan Straily R 31 6 9 6.18 25 22 119.3 137 82 32 45 100 6.12
Alex Wells L 23 5 9 6.24 24 24 122.7 151 85 32 32 76 6.11
Luis Ortiz R 24 4 7 6.46 19 16 78.0 95 56 18 36 52 6.23
Josh Rogers L 25 5 8 6.46 19 17 94.7 121 68 24 26 52 6.20
Steven Klimek R 26 3 5 6.39 34 1 56.3 63 40 11 37 42 6.20
Jay Flaa R 28 2 4 6.38 39 2 60.7 66 43 13 38 55 6.03
Francisco Jimenez R 25 4 5 5.99 35 0 73.7 84 49 16 32 56 5.79

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
John Means 6.8 2.2 1.6 5.7% 17.8% .290 95 105 1.6 Stubby Overmire
Alex Cobb 6.1 2.4 1.7 6.0% 15.7% .292 88 114 0.8 Jim Barr
Michael Baumann 7.6 4.8 1.3 11.8% 18.7% .296 89 113 0.8 Mike Torrez
Zac Lowther 8.4 4.6 1.6 11.3% 20.8% .292 87 115 0.8 Chris Pollack
Tanner Scott 11.2 5.1 0.8 12.9% 28.4% .308 120 84 0.8 Grant Jackson
Mychal Givens 12.2 3.9 1.3 10.3% 32.1% .288 116 87 0.7 Dwayne Henry
Chandler Shepherd 7.0 2.9 1.6 7.4% 17.5% .308 87 115 0.7 Lary Sorensen
Hunter Harvey 8.6 3.6 1.6 9.0% 21.8% .295 94 107 0.7 Joe Haynes
Gabriel Ynoa 5.6 2.3 1.6 5.8% 14.2% .300 86 116 0.5 Benny Frey
Cole Sulser 10.0 3.6 1.5 9.3% 25.6% .302 102 98 0.4 Sean Green
Paul Fry 9.1 4.6 1.0 11.5% 22.7% .295 104 96 0.4 Marcelino Lopez
Richard Bleier 4.6 1.4 0.9 3.7% 12.0% .297 112 90 0.4 Dick Coffman
Michael Rucker 8.2 3.3 1.7 8.3% 20.7% .304 88 113 0.4 Mike LaCoss
Tom Eshelman 6.4 2.3 1.9 5.8% 16.3% .302 83 121 0.4 Nick Blackburn
Bruce Zimmermann 7.5 4.1 1.7 9.9% 18.2% .307 82 122 0.3 Jake Chapman
Shawn Armstrong 9.8 4.5 1.2 11.4% 24.6% .296 103 97 0.3 George Smith
Miguel Castro 7.5 5.0 0.9 12.4% 18.9% .283 98 102 0.2 Doug Sisk
Dillon Tate 6.4 3.6 1.4 8.8% 15.9% .302 84 119 0.2 Bob Purkey
Isaac Mattson 7.7 4.3 1.1 10.8% 19.5% .291 98 102 0.1 Hal Reniff
Dean Kremer 8.7 4.1 2.0 10.1% 21.3% .309 80 125 0.1 Clemente Nunez
Rob Zastryzny 7.6 3.9 1.8 9.5% 18.5% .304 81 124 0.1 Jeff Musselman
Tim Naughton 8.9 6.8 0.7 16.2% 21.3% .300 97 103 0.1 Hal Reniff
Tyler Erwin 6.8 3.9 1.1 9.6% 17.1% .297 96 105 0.0 Mike Cosgrove
Ty Blach 5.5 3.0 1.6 7.4% 13.6% .304 80 126 0.0 Wade Blasingame
Ryan Eades 7.3 4.0 1.7 9.8% 18.0% .294 82 121 0.0 Jim McDonald
Brandon Bailey 7.9 5.2 1.7 12.6% 18.9% .299 79 127 0.0 Rick Berg
Steve Wilkerson 1.8 0.0 1.8 0.0% 4.5% .300 84 119 0.0 Chuck Hartenstein
Kohl Stewart 5.9 4.0 1.6 9.8% 14.4% .299 79 127 0.0 Mark Cahill
Zach Pop 8.1 4.3 1.5 10.5% 20.0% .295 93 108 0.0 Lloyd Allen
Cody Carroll 9.4 6.1 1.2 14.6% 22.6% .299 89 113 0.0 Hal Reniff
Zach Muckenhirn 8.5 5.2 1.2 12.6% 20.8% .299 93 108 0.0 Mike Cosgrove
Tanner Chleborad 6.3 3.5 1.2 8.7% 15.8% .300 92 108 0.0 Jim Hannan
Hunter Cervenka 10.3 5.6 1.4 13.7% 25.5% .296 91 110 -0.1 Mike Kinnunen
Tayler Scott 8.1 4.8 1.3 11.7% 19.7% .308 89 113 -0.1 Jose Segura
Nate Karns 8.2 5.2 1.9 12.5% 19.8% .300 75 134 -0.1 Russ Ortiz
Asher Wojciechowski 8.2 3.5 2.2 8.6% 20.3% .303 76 131 -0.2 Dennis Burtt
Cristian Alvarado 6.2 2.2 2.1 5.4% 15.7% .300 78 128 -0.2 Tim Kester
Sean Gilmartin 7.7 3.4 2.1 8.4% 18.9% .300 78 128 -0.3 Chris Key
Eric Hanhold 7.4 4.2 1.5 10.2% 18.2% .301 86 116 -0.3 Rosman Garcia
Branden Kline 8.0 4.5 1.5 11.1% 19.6% .298 87 115 -0.3 Horacio Pina
Marcos Diplan 8.7 7.9 1.3 17.9% 19.7% .307 76 131 -0.3 Walt Masterson
Evan Phillips 10.4 5.5 1.7 13.4% 25.1% .305 86 116 -0.3 Marc Pisciotta
Cody Sedlock 7.1 5.7 1.7 13.4% 16.6% .301 74 136 -0.4 Blue Moon Odom
David Hess 7.3 3.5 2.1 8.6% 18.1% .297 75 134 -0.4 Larry Shikles
Keegan Akin 8.8 5.1 2.1 12.3% 21.1% .299 74 136 -0.4 Matt Coenen
Pedro Araujo 8.4 5.3 1.7 12.6% 20.3% .299 81 124 -0.4 Ken Wright
Brian Gonzalez 6.8 4.3 1.9 10.4% 16.4% .297 74 135 -0.5 Derek Root
Dan Straily 7.5 3.4 2.4 8.4% 18.7% .297 73 137 -0.5 Dennis Burtt
Alex Wells 5.6 2.3 2.3 5.8% 13.9% .297 73 138 -0.6 Joe Rosselli
Luis Ortiz 6.0 4.2 2.1 9.9% 14.3% .304 70 143 -0.6 Dennis Springer
Josh Rogers 4.9 2.5 2.3 6.1% 12.1% .302 70 143 -0.7 Eric Knott
Steven Klimek 6.7 5.9 1.8 13.8% 15.6% .297 71 141 -0.9 Sean Green
Jay Flaa 8.2 5.6 1.9 13.3% 19.2% .301 71 141 -0.9 Marty McLeary
Francisco Jimenez 6.8 3.9 2.0 9.5% 16.7% .300 76 132 -1.0 Jeremy Blevins

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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marechal
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marechal

My eyes.

docgooden85
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docgooden85

The goggles do nothing!