2020 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.
Batters
Don’t look away in cringing horror; the pitching projections are worse!
ZiPS actually projects every position to be above replacement level, which is something. If you’re a skeptic, you might just say that’s only because Trey Mancini is projected to get playing time at first and in right field, and while that’s accurate, can’t you just be nice for a few minutes?
You could probably call the Austin Hays‘ forecast a pleasant one, though obviously it’s not quite on the level of his .309/.373/.574 line from his 21-game stint with the parent club. Hays was clearly overmatched in his initial cup of joe in the majors in 2017, but the Orioles also promoted him very aggressively that season and he was never the sort of prospect you’d expect to skip Triple-A without issues. There’s also the possibility that his adequate line is underrating him; injuries create a lot of uncertainty and his 2018 season and much of his 2019 were marred by ankle and thumb injuries.
Yes, José Iglesias is one of the best players on the team. The team’s official position is that he’s keeping the seat warm while they see how Richie Martin develops at Triple-A, but in truth, Iglesias is in Charm City because the O’s don’t really have anything there. Martin’s 25, not 22, and the next O’s starting shortstop to have positive value is either in the much lower levels of the minor leagues or not in the system yet.
I’m increasingly confused as to why Chris Davis is on the team. He has no offensive value, no defensive value, and tried to go after manager Brandon Hyde in the dugout (true to form, Davis didn’t get a hit here either). Even worse, Davis at first leaves Trey Mancini playing the outfield, which he does awkwardly, and blocks the most obvious play to place Ryan Mountcastle. And while I don’t think Mountcastle would actually be good, he’s better than Davis and actually has a future. Orioles, the money is gone; this is just sad.
Pitchers
There were a number of ways I could have gone about talking about the Oriole pitching. I could have left the section blank and hoped that my generous and understanding editor would take it as my normal amusitating schtick and let me slide. Or I could have compared their pitching to some battle or war because I’m a military history buff and nobody else is paying me to write about the Battle of Flodden. Or I could just filibuster the pitching projections, hoping that I could hit my word limit and shift right into the prospects without anybody noticing.
Let’s just pull off the Band-Aid.
The O’s are going to allow a lot of runs this year. They allowed a lot of runs last year, including the most homers allowed in the history of baseball, but there were brief respites of adequacy in the rotation. Dylan Bundy was effective in spurts, Andrew Cashner kept his ERA under four until another team was tricked into believing in him, and John Means did enough to finish second in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Bundy’s gone, Cashner’s gone, and while Means’ outlook is better than Jeff Ballard after the latter’s 18-8, 3.43 ERA season (62 strikeouts in 215.1 innings), some regression toward the mean is inevitable. ZiPS will need to see more 2019s from Means before it believes he’ll keep outperforming his peripherals; he didn’t outperform them in the minors, after all, where a junk-thrower ought to have an easier time doing so.
I wouldn’t be excited by Alex Cobb’s 2020 projection (5.15 ERA, 0.8 FIP), but as with Hays, Cobb has been injured so much that it’s hard to know exactly what the team has in him. I’m still a believer that he has something left and if he does, the O’s may be able to flip him this summer. But even if the O’s get nothing for Cobb, I’d really like to see him get his career back on track to where he was in 2014, when he was one of the best mid-20s pitchers in baseball.
The bullpen is less dire, where five pitchers are projected to have an ERA+ over 100 (average for a reliever is usually around 106-110). ZiPS remains optimistic about Tanner Scott, one of the two most prominent pitchers to have a bimodal projection (all highs and lows, with less in the middle). For those curious, the other is Michael Kopech.
If the pitching stays healthy and everyone matches their depth chart outlook, the O’s would actually see their pitching WAR improve by 0.5 wins compared to 2019!
Prospects
Adley Rutschman! I wouldn’t typically give an official projection for Rutschman given his lack of professional experience and the fact that he’s only played 12 games above short-season A-ball. But he’s already 22, the consensus best hitter in the draft, and it’s likely he’ll advance very quickly through the system if things work out. The error bars for this projection are massive, of course.
Hopefully, the Rutschman projection errors are on the good side because the O’s haven’t received much of that from their upper minors prospects. Mountcastle and Yusniel Díaz haven’t dropped completely out of prospect lists, but ZiPS is down on both. Hitting .312/.344/.527, Mountcastle’s line would have looked terrific in a normal year, especially when it’s in the International League rather than the Pacific Coast League. But the high minors got the juicy ball last year and offense exploded even in the IL, which tends to be the more pitcher-friendly league by a considerable margin.
Mountcastle’s Triple-A line only amounted to a wRC+ of 117, meaning he was essentially an average Triple-A first baseman. Average Triple-A first basemen don’t tend to crush it in the majors. Unless Mountcastle’s bat explodes this year, I’d be inclined to see if he can become halfway adequate at third base. As for Díaz, he needs to stay healthy and continue hitting at Triple-A because, at this point, he’s looking more like a fourth outfielder type long-term, at least from a projection standpoint.
One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trey Mancini | R | 28 | RF | 644 | 582 | 83 | 159 | 30 | 3 | 31 | 92 | 51 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Austin Hays | R | 24 | CF | 505 | 476 | 61 | 119 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 67 | 22 | 114 | 9 | 6 |
Jose Iglesias | R | 30 | SS | 515 | 485 | 56 | 129 | 27 | 2 | 8 | 51 | 21 | 61 | 8 | 5 |
Hanser Alberto | R | 27 | 2B | 527 | 503 | 54 | 140 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 47 | 14 | 50 | 3 | 4 |
Adley Rutschman | B | 22 | C | 645 | 581 | 69 | 131 | 27 | 0 | 18 | 64 | 52 | 143 | 6 | 0 |
Rio Ruiz | L | 26 | 3B | 512 | 461 | 54 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 47 | 116 | 1 | 2 |
Dilson Herrera | R | 26 | 2B | 431 | 391 | 51 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 53 | 32 | 125 | 8 | 5 |
Renato Nunez | R | 26 | DH | 573 | 519 | 69 | 125 | 25 | 1 | 29 | 85 | 42 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
Cedric Mullins | B | 25 | CF | 600 | 547 | 67 | 128 | 26 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 39 | 113 | 22 | 6 |
Chance Sisco | L | 25 | C | 395 | 346 | 47 | 82 | 16 | 0 | 13 | 44 | 34 | 117 | 1 | 1 |
Jose Rondon | R | 26 | SS | 376 | 350 | 41 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 44 | 20 | 94 | 5 | 4 |
Pat Valaika | R | 27 | 2B | 433 | 403 | 47 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 23 | 127 | 3 | 2 |
Martin Cervenka | R | 27 | C | 342 | 314 | 33 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 21 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
Austin Wynns | R | 29 | C | 337 | 308 | 36 | 74 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Mason Williams | L | 28 | CF | 503 | 462 | 54 | 118 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 33 | 98 | 6 | 6 |
Anthony Santander | B | 25 | RF | 576 | 536 | 63 | 135 | 29 | 2 | 20 | 71 | 29 | 120 | 4 | 4 |
Ryan Mountcastle | R | 23 | 1B | 532 | 505 | 63 | 132 | 23 | 2 | 20 | 70 | 20 | 121 | 2 | 1 |
Carlos Perez | R | 29 | C | 357 | 333 | 34 | 72 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 |
Rylan Bannon | R | 24 | 3B | 513 | 459 | 55 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 44 | 120 | 5 | 4 |
DJ Stewart | L | 26 | LF | 491 | 430 | 60 | 99 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 60 | 49 | 113 | 8 | 5 |
Pedro Severino | R | 26 | C | 338 | 307 | 33 | 71 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 25 | 71 | 3 | 1 |
Brett Cumberland | B | 25 | C | 337 | 289 | 36 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 110 | 0 | 2 |
Dwight Smith Jr. | L | 27 | LF | 436 | 394 | 48 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 33 | 90 | 7 | 3 |
Richie Martin Jr. | R | 25 | SS | 412 | 375 | 40 | 81 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 24 | 102 | 12 | 5 |
Jesus Sucre | R | 32 | C | 235 | 218 | 17 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
Ryan McKenna | R | 23 | CF | 569 | 508 | 64 | 116 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 49 | 47 | 138 | 17 | 11 |
Mason McCoy | R | 25 | SS | 559 | 520 | 53 | 120 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 32 | 120 | 8 | 3 |
Steve Wilkerson | B | 28 | 2B | 374 | 342 | 38 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 23 | 110 | 5 | 4 |
Mark Trumbo | R | 34 | RF | 420 | 390 | 51 | 92 | 17 | 0 | 23 | 58 | 28 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Jesmuel Valentin | B | 26 | SS | 414 | 374 | 41 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 104 | 6 | 4 |
Jack Reinheimer | R | 27 | SS | 432 | 391 | 43 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 34 | 96 | 11 | 5 |
Yusniel Diaz | R | 23 | RF | 413 | 373 | 47 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 45 | 37 | 97 | 2 | 7 |
Chris Bostick | R | 27 | 2B | 487 | 442 | 52 | 105 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 47 | 33 | 119 | 6 | 5 |
Angelo Mora | B | 27 | 3B | 369 | 345 | 34 | 79 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 20 | 92 | 4 | 2 |
Engelb Vielma | B | 26 | SS | 308 | 277 | 25 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 77 | 2 | 4 |
Zach Vincej | R | 29 | 3B | 413 | 383 | 38 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 21 | 71 | 2 | 4 |
Chris Davis | L | 34 | 1B | 423 | 371 | 41 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 16 | 50 | 45 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
Malquin Canelo | R | 25 | SS | 485 | 444 | 43 | 90 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 30 | 150 | 9 | 7 |
Cole Billingsley | L | 26 | CF | 427 | 390 | 37 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 28 | 90 | 11 | 6 |
Ademar Rifaela | L | 25 | LF | 427 | 397 | 41 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 23 | 137 | 2 | 2 |
Jomar Reyes | R | 23 | 3B | 472 | 452 | 40 | 102 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 42 | 13 | 101 | 1 | 1 |
Anderson Feliz | B | 28 | 3B | 364 | 335 | 34 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 116 | 7 | 3 |
Preston Palmeiro | L | 25 | 1B | 474 | 441 | 44 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 26 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trey Mancini | .273 | .337 | .495 | 121 | .222 | .318 | 6.2 | -8 | 1.9 | Harold Baines |
Austin Hays | .250 | .289 | .441 | 94 | .191 | .287 | 4.5 | 4 | 1.3 | Frank Diaz |
Jose Iglesias | .266 | .302 | .379 | 83 | .113 | .291 | 4.2 | 6 | 1.2 | Jerry Adair |
Hanser Alberto | .278 | .300 | .396 | 87 | .117 | .290 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.2 | Luis Sojo |
Adley Rutschman | .225 | .290 | .365 | 76 | .139 | .269 | 3.8 | 3 | 1.0 | Ramon Castro |
Rio Ruiz | .236 | .307 | .386 | 86 | .150 | .287 | 4.1 | 4 | 0.9 | Rodney Nye |
Dilson Herrera | .225 | .291 | .414 | 88 | .189 | .282 | 4.1 | 3 | 0.9 | Mike Bell |
Renato Nunez | .241 | .304 | .461 | 103 | .220 | .277 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.9 | Nate Gold |
Cedric Mullins | .234 | .287 | .377 | 78 | .143 | .271 | 4.0 | 5 | 0.7 | Cory Sullivan |
Chance Sisco | .237 | .327 | .396 | 95 | .159 | .319 | 4.5 | -7 | 0.7 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia |
Jose Rondon | .237 | .281 | .406 | 83 | .169 | .288 | 3.9 | 3 | 0.7 | Jose Castro |
Pat Valaika | .218 | .260 | .397 | 75 | .179 | .277 | 3.5 | 7 | 0.5 | Tim Hulett |
Martin Cervenka | .210 | .261 | .341 | 62 | .131 | .284 | 3.1 | 8 | 0.4 | Jose Molina |
Austin Wynns | .240 | .293 | .341 | 72 | .101 | .284 | 3.6 | 3 | 0.4 | Brian Loyd |
Mason Williams | .255 | .305 | .381 | 85 | .126 | .301 | 4.1 | 0 | 0.4 | Skip Schumaker |
Anthony Santander | .252 | .294 | .425 | 92 | .174 | .290 | 4.4 | 1 | 0.3 | Mark Ryal |
Ryan Mountcastle | .261 | .291 | .434 | 93 | .172 | .308 | 4.6 | 2 | 0.3 | Domingo Martinez |
Carlos Perez | .216 | .256 | .360 | 65 | .144 | .238 | 3.2 | 5 | 0.2 | Mike Ryan |
Rylan Bannon | .222 | .295 | .373 | 80 | .150 | .271 | 3.7 | -1 | 0.1 | Adam Fox |
DJ Stewart | .230 | .316 | .407 | 94 | .177 | .273 | 4.5 | -4 | 0.1 | Steve Goodell |
Pedro Severino | .231 | .294 | .368 | 78 | .137 | .270 | 3.8 | -4 | 0.1 | Alberto Castillo |
Brett Cumberland | .187 | .297 | .332 | 71 | .145 | .265 | 3.1 | -2 | 0.0 | Matt Treanor |
Dwight Smith Jr. | .241 | .303 | .396 | 88 | .155 | .284 | 4.3 | -2 | -0.1 | Mike Dull |
Richie Martin Jr. | .216 | .275 | .331 | 63 | .115 | .278 | 3.2 | 1 | -0.2 | Andres Duncan |
Jesus Sucre | .234 | .275 | .303 | 57 | .069 | .274 | 3.0 | 1 | -0.2 | Chris Ashby |
Ryan McKenna | .228 | .300 | .350 | 76 | .122 | .292 | 3.6 | -2 | -0.2 | Vince Phillips |
Mason McCoy | .231 | .276 | .310 | 59 | .079 | .293 | 3.0 | 5 | -0.2 | Blake Davis |
Steve Wilkerson | .222 | .280 | .342 | 68 | .120 | .304 | 3.2 | 1 | -0.3 | Alberto Castillo |
Mark Trumbo | .236 | .288 | .456 | 97 | .221 | .268 | 4.7 | -9 | -0.3 | Alan Cockrell |
Jesmuel Valentin | .217 | .284 | .324 | 65 | .107 | .281 | 3.1 | 0 | -0.3 | Ricky Magdaleno |
Jack Reinheimer | .220 | .283 | .304 | 60 | .084 | .279 | 3.0 | 2 | -0.3 | Drew Meyer |
Yusniel Diaz | .239 | .310 | .399 | 91 | .161 | .292 | 4.0 | -4 | -0.4 | Craig Cooper |
Chris Bostick | .238 | .296 | .369 | 79 | .131 | .304 | 3.8 | -6 | -0.4 | Nick Green |
Angelo Mora | .229 | .272 | .342 | 65 | .113 | .296 | 3.3 | 1 | -0.4 | Javier Castillo |
Engelb Vielma | .199 | .257 | .245 | 38 | .047 | .275 | 1.9 | 3 | -0.9 | Les Dennis |
Zach Vincej | .230 | .276 | .329 | 63 | .099 | .268 | 3.0 | -2 | -0.9 | Juan Castro |
Chris Davis | .186 | .279 | .345 | 68 | .159 | .277 | 3.2 | 0 | -0.9 | Ty Van Burkleo |
Malquin Canelo | .203 | .256 | .291 | 48 | .088 | .294 | 2.4 | 5 | -1.0 | Anderson Hernandez |
Cole Billingsley | .205 | .262 | .269 | 45 | .064 | .259 | 2.4 | 5 | -1.0 | Doug Livingston |
Ademar Rifaela | .214 | .263 | .353 | 65 | .139 | .297 | 3.1 | 0 | -1.2 | Jon Zeringue |
Jomar Reyes | .226 | .256 | .332 | 58 | .106 | .272 | 2.9 | -2 | -1.2 | Jacob Blackwood |
Anderson Feliz | .203 | .262 | .304 | 53 | .101 | .291 | 2.7 | -4 | -1.3 | Frank Kremblas |
Preston Palmeiro | .206 | .252 | .320 | 54 | .113 | .275 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.0 | Bernie Gonzalez |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Means | L | 27 | 10 | 10 | 4.78 | 30 | 27 | 152.7 | 162 | 81 | 27 | 37 | 116 | 4.69 |
Alex Cobb | R | 32 | 7 | 9 | 5.15 | 22 | 22 | 122.3 | 136 | 70 | 23 | 32 | 83 | 5.05 |
Michael Baumann | R | 24 | 7 | 8 | 5.12 | 25 | 23 | 114.3 | 116 | 65 | 16 | 61 | 97 | 4.90 |
Zac Lowther | L | 24 | 8 | 10 | 5.20 | 25 | 25 | 126.3 | 126 | 73 | 22 | 64 | 118 | 5.10 |
Tanner Scott | L | 25 | 5 | 4 | 3.78 | 61 | 0 | 69.0 | 58 | 29 | 6 | 39 | 86 | 3.51 |
Mychal Givens | R | 30 | 5 | 3 | 3.92 | 57 | 0 | 62.0 | 49 | 27 | 9 | 27 | 84 | 3.66 |
Chandler Shepherd | R | 27 | 6 | 8 | 5.22 | 25 | 22 | 122.3 | 139 | 71 | 22 | 40 | 95 | 4.95 |
Hunter Harvey | R | 25 | 5 | 5 | 4.83 | 32 | 12 | 78.3 | 79 | 42 | 14 | 31 | 75 | 4.78 |
Gabriel Ynoa | R | 27 | 6 | 7 | 5.24 | 36 | 18 | 127.0 | 147 | 74 | 22 | 32 | 79 | 4.94 |
Cole Sulser | R | 30 | 4 | 4 | 4.45 | 53 | 3 | 64.7 | 62 | 32 | 11 | 26 | 72 | 4.37 |
Paul Fry | L | 27 | 5 | 4 | 4.34 | 63 | 1 | 64.3 | 59 | 31 | 7 | 33 | 65 | 4.11 |
Richard Bleier | L | 33 | 2 | 2 | 4.06 | 48 | 0 | 51.0 | 57 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 3.91 |
Michael Rucker | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 5.12 | 31 | 10 | 89.7 | 96 | 51 | 17 | 33 | 82 | 4.92 |
Tom Eshelman | R | 26 | 5 | 7 | 5.47 | 26 | 22 | 130.0 | 152 | 79 | 28 | 33 | 93 | 5.31 |
Bruce Zimmermann | L | 25 | 6 | 8 | 5.52 | 24 | 23 | 124.0 | 139 | 76 | 24 | 56 | 103 | 5.39 |
Shawn Armstrong | R | 29 | 2 | 2 | 4.38 | 58 | 0 | 61.7 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 31 | 67 | 4.20 |
Miguel Castro | R | 25 | 3 | 3 | 4.61 | 65 | 0 | 80.0 | 74 | 41 | 8 | 44 | 67 | 4.46 |
Dillon Tate | R | 26 | 4 | 5 | 5.40 | 29 | 11 | 78.3 | 87 | 47 | 12 | 31 | 56 | 4.93 |
Isaac Mattson | R | 24 | 5 | 5 | 4.64 | 46 | 0 | 75.7 | 73 | 39 | 9 | 36 | 65 | 4.44 |
Dean Kremer | R | 24 | 6 | 9 | 5.66 | 22 | 22 | 109.7 | 120 | 69 | 24 | 50 | 106 | 5.46 |
Rob Zastryzny | L | 28 | 4 | 6 | 5.62 | 24 | 16 | 97.7 | 109 | 61 | 20 | 42 | 82 | 5.45 |
Tim Naughton | R | 24 | 4 | 4 | 4.65 | 48 | 0 | 50.3 | 46 | 26 | 4 | 38 | 50 | 4.49 |
Tyler Erwin | L | 25 | 3 | 3 | 4.73 | 42 | 0 | 51.3 | 53 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 39 | 4.47 |
Ty Blach | L | 29 | 5 | 8 | 5.69 | 29 | 20 | 125.0 | 148 | 79 | 22 | 41 | 76 | 5.24 |
Ryan Eades | R | 28 | 3 | 4 | 5.50 | 27 | 9 | 70.3 | 75 | 43 | 13 | 31 | 57 | 5.28 |
Brandon Bailey | R | 25 | 4 | 6 | 5.73 | 24 | 18 | 92.7 | 98 | 59 | 17 | 54 | 81 | 5.56 |
Steve Wilkerson | R | 28 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 4 | 0 | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.38 |
Kohl Stewart | R | 25 | 6 | 9 | 5.76 | 27 | 21 | 114.0 | 130 | 73 | 20 | 51 | 75 | 5.49 |
Zach Pop | R | 23 | 2 | 2 | 4.89 | 34 | 0 | 42.3 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 20 | 38 | 4.95 |
Cody Carroll | R | 27 | 3 | 4 | 5.10 | 40 | 2 | 65.3 | 62 | 37 | 9 | 44 | 68 | 4.91 |
Zach Muckenhirn | L | 25 | 4 | 4 | 4.88 | 46 | 0 | 59.0 | 58 | 32 | 8 | 34 | 56 | 4.77 |
Tanner Chleborad | R | 27 | 2 | 3 | 4.91 | 29 | 0 | 44.0 | 48 | 24 | 6 | 17 | 31 | 4.70 |
Hunter Cervenka | L | 30 | 2 | 2 | 4.96 | 45 | 0 | 45.3 | 41 | 25 | 7 | 28 | 52 | 4.75 |
Tayler Scott | R | 28 | 3 | 4 | 5.12 | 46 | 1 | 63.3 | 66 | 36 | 9 | 34 | 57 | 4.84 |
Nate Karns | R | 32 | 1 | 2 | 6.05 | 11 | 8 | 41.7 | 45 | 28 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 5.89 |
Asher Wojciechowski | R | 31 | 7 | 11 | 5.93 | 28 | 25 | 129.0 | 145 | 85 | 32 | 50 | 118 | 5.74 |
Cristian Alvarado | R | 25 | 5 | 8 | 5.78 | 33 | 13 | 104.3 | 124 | 67 | 24 | 25 | 72 | 5.51 |
Sean Gilmartin | L | 30 | 3 | 5 | 5.78 | 33 | 8 | 71.7 | 81 | 46 | 17 | 27 | 61 | 5.69 |
Eric Hanhold | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 5.25 | 47 | 0 | 58.3 | 63 | 34 | 10 | 27 | 48 | 5.15 |
Branden Kline | R | 28 | 4 | 4 | 5.23 | 53 | 0 | 62.0 | 64 | 36 | 10 | 31 | 55 | 5.00 |
Marcos Diplan | R | 23 | 4 | 6 | 5.92 | 34 | 13 | 79.0 | 80 | 52 | 11 | 69 | 76 | 5.69 |
Evan Phillips | R | 25 | 3 | 3 | 5.26 | 51 | 0 | 65.0 | 63 | 38 | 12 | 40 | 75 | 5.12 |
Cody Sedlock | R | 25 | 3 | 5 | 6.16 | 21 | 16 | 80.3 | 89 | 55 | 15 | 51 | 63 | 5.94 |
David Hess | R | 26 | 6 | 10 | 6.05 | 31 | 21 | 122.0 | 137 | 82 | 28 | 47 | 99 | 5.70 |
Keegan Akin | L | 25 | 6 | 9 | 6.16 | 24 | 23 | 106.7 | 114 | 73 | 25 | 61 | 104 | 5.99 |
Pedro Araujo | R | 26 | 2 | 3 | 5.62 | 31 | 0 | 48.0 | 50 | 30 | 9 | 28 | 45 | 5.49 |
Brian Gonzalez | L | 24 | 4 | 6 | 6.13 | 25 | 11 | 83.7 | 95 | 57 | 18 | 40 | 63 | 5.91 |
Dan Straily | R | 31 | 6 | 9 | 6.18 | 25 | 22 | 119.3 | 137 | 82 | 32 | 45 | 100 | 6.12 |
Alex Wells | L | 23 | 5 | 9 | 6.24 | 24 | 24 | 122.7 | 151 | 85 | 32 | 32 | 76 | 6.11 |
Luis Ortiz | R | 24 | 4 | 7 | 6.46 | 19 | 16 | 78.0 | 95 | 56 | 18 | 36 | 52 | 6.23 |
Josh Rogers | L | 25 | 5 | 8 | 6.46 | 19 | 17 | 94.7 | 121 | 68 | 24 | 26 | 52 | 6.20 |
Steven Klimek | R | 26 | 3 | 5 | 6.39 | 34 | 1 | 56.3 | 63 | 40 | 11 | 37 | 42 | 6.20 |
Jay Flaa | R | 28 | 2 | 4 | 6.38 | 39 | 2 | 60.7 | 66 | 43 | 13 | 38 | 55 | 6.03 |
Francisco Jimenez | R | 25 | 4 | 5 | 5.99 | 35 | 0 | 73.7 | 84 | 49 | 16 | 32 | 56 | 5.79 |
Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Means | 6.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 5.7% | 17.8% | .290 | 95 | 105 | 1.6 | Stubby Overmire |
Alex Cobb | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 6.0% | 15.7% | .292 | 88 | 114 | 0.8 | Jim Barr |
Michael Baumann | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 11.8% | 18.7% | .296 | 89 | 113 | 0.8 | Mike Torrez |
Zac Lowther | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 11.3% | 20.8% | .292 | 87 | 115 | 0.8 | Chris Pollack |
Tanner Scott | 11.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 12.9% | 28.4% | .308 | 120 | 84 | 0.8 | Grant Jackson |
Mychal Givens | 12.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 10.3% | 32.1% | .288 | 116 | 87 | 0.7 | Dwayne Henry |
Chandler Shepherd | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 7.4% | 17.5% | .308 | 87 | 115 | 0.7 | Lary Sorensen |
Hunter Harvey | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 9.0% | 21.8% | .295 | 94 | 107 | 0.7 | Joe Haynes |
Gabriel Ynoa | 5.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 5.8% | 14.2% | .300 | 86 | 116 | 0.5 | Benny Frey |
Cole Sulser | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 9.3% | 25.6% | .302 | 102 | 98 | 0.4 | Sean Green |
Paul Fry | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 11.5% | 22.7% | .295 | 104 | 96 | 0.4 | Marcelino Lopez |
Richard Bleier | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 3.7% | 12.0% | .297 | 112 | 90 | 0.4 | Dick Coffman |
Michael Rucker | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 8.3% | 20.7% | .304 | 88 | 113 | 0.4 | Mike LaCoss |
Tom Eshelman | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 5.8% | 16.3% | .302 | 83 | 121 | 0.4 | Nick Blackburn |
Bruce Zimmermann | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 9.9% | 18.2% | .307 | 82 | 122 | 0.3 | Jake Chapman |
Shawn Armstrong | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 11.4% | 24.6% | .296 | 103 | 97 | 0.3 | George Smith |
Miguel Castro | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 12.4% | 18.9% | .283 | 98 | 102 | 0.2 | Doug Sisk |
Dillon Tate | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 8.8% | 15.9% | .302 | 84 | 119 | 0.2 | Bob Purkey |
Isaac Mattson | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 10.8% | 19.5% | .291 | 98 | 102 | 0.1 | Hal Reniff |
Dean Kremer | 8.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 10.1% | 21.3% | .309 | 80 | 125 | 0.1 | Clemente Nunez |
Rob Zastryzny | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 9.5% | 18.5% | .304 | 81 | 124 | 0.1 | Jeff Musselman |
Tim Naughton | 8.9 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 16.2% | 21.3% | .300 | 97 | 103 | 0.1 | Hal Reniff |
Tyler Erwin | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 9.6% | 17.1% | .297 | 96 | 105 | 0.0 | Mike Cosgrove |
Ty Blach | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 7.4% | 13.6% | .304 | 80 | 126 | 0.0 | Wade Blasingame |
Ryan Eades | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 9.8% | 18.0% | .294 | 82 | 121 | 0.0 | Jim McDonald |
Brandon Bailey | 7.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 12.6% | 18.9% | .299 | 79 | 127 | 0.0 | Rick Berg |
Steve Wilkerson | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0% | 4.5% | .300 | 84 | 119 | 0.0 | Chuck Hartenstein |
Kohl Stewart | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 9.8% | 14.4% | .299 | 79 | 127 | 0.0 | Mark Cahill |
Zach Pop | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 10.5% | 20.0% | .295 | 93 | 108 | 0.0 | Lloyd Allen |
Cody Carroll | 9.4 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 14.6% | 22.6% | .299 | 89 | 113 | 0.0 | Hal Reniff |
Zach Muckenhirn | 8.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 12.6% | 20.8% | .299 | 93 | 108 | 0.0 | Mike Cosgrove |
Tanner Chleborad | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 8.7% | 15.8% | .300 | 92 | 108 | 0.0 | Jim Hannan |
Hunter Cervenka | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 13.7% | 25.5% | .296 | 91 | 110 | -0.1 | Mike Kinnunen |
Tayler Scott | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 11.7% | 19.7% | .308 | 89 | 113 | -0.1 | Jose Segura |
Nate Karns | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 12.5% | 19.8% | .300 | 75 | 134 | -0.1 | Russ Ortiz |
Asher Wojciechowski | 8.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 8.6% | 20.3% | .303 | 76 | 131 | -0.2 | Dennis Burtt |
Cristian Alvarado | 6.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 5.4% | 15.7% | .300 | 78 | 128 | -0.2 | Tim Kester |
Sean Gilmartin | 7.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 8.4% | 18.9% | .300 | 78 | 128 | -0.3 | Chris Key |
Eric Hanhold | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10.2% | 18.2% | .301 | 86 | 116 | -0.3 | Rosman Garcia |
Branden Kline | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 11.1% | 19.6% | .298 | 87 | 115 | -0.3 | Horacio Pina |
Marcos Diplan | 8.7 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 17.9% | 19.7% | .307 | 76 | 131 | -0.3 | Walt Masterson |
Evan Phillips | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 13.4% | 25.1% | .305 | 86 | 116 | -0.3 | Marc Pisciotta |
Cody Sedlock | 7.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 13.4% | 16.6% | .301 | 74 | 136 | -0.4 | Blue Moon Odom |
David Hess | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 8.6% | 18.1% | .297 | 75 | 134 | -0.4 | Larry Shikles |
Keegan Akin | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 12.3% | 21.1% | .299 | 74 | 136 | -0.4 | Matt Coenen |
Pedro Araujo | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 12.6% | 20.3% | .299 | 81 | 124 | -0.4 | Ken Wright |
Brian Gonzalez | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 10.4% | 16.4% | .297 | 74 | 135 | -0.5 | Derek Root |
Dan Straily | 7.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 8.4% | 18.7% | .297 | 73 | 137 | -0.5 | Dennis Burtt |
Alex Wells | 5.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 5.8% | 13.9% | .297 | 73 | 138 | -0.6 | Joe Rosselli |
Luis Ortiz | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 9.9% | 14.3% | .304 | 70 | 143 | -0.6 | Dennis Springer |
Josh Rogers | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 6.1% | 12.1% | .302 | 70 | 143 | -0.7 | Eric Knott |
Steven Klimek | 6.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 13.8% | 15.6% | .297 | 71 | 141 | -0.9 | Sean Green |
Jay Flaa | 8.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 13.3% | 19.2% | .301 | 71 | 141 | -0.9 | Marty McLeary |
Francisco Jimenez | 6.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 9.5% | 16.7% | .300 | 76 | 132 | -1.0 | Jeremy Blevins |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
My eyes.
The goggles do nothing!