2020 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

There’s been quite a bit of turnover in the Brewers’ starting lineup, but the team has avoided opening any serious holes.

ZiPS was a fan of Orlando Arcia, but it’s hard to avoid the fact that he’s backslid developmentally at ages when he should have been breaking out. Even worse than not improving offensively, Arcia is probably a worse hitter than he was two years ago. Add to that that his glove hasn’t matched up to his minor league reputation, and good on the Brewers for seemingly moving on to Luis Urías, who ought to be a significant improvement.

There will need to be a fair amount of juggling at left field and first base, with Ryan Braun getting a lot of playing time at both positions, though the exact mix is unknown at this point. Lorenzo Cain is at an age when serious decline becomes a significant risk every year, but as long as his defense and high BABIP survive, he won’t lose too much value if other things start to fade.

Christian Yelich is, of course, this lineup’s centerpiece. The Brewers went on a blazing hot run to make the playoffs after Yelich’s injury last summer but it would be a mistake to think they could survive too long without him. I would have liked to see Travis Shaw get an opportunity to bounce back in Milwaukee, but given their status as serious contenders, and the uncertainty about how good Shaw is right now, it’s understandable that the Brewers didn’t want to bank on him. I’m not sure how Ryon Healy makes this roster right now.

Pitchers

The Brewers have survived — and thrived — without much in the way of elite starting pitching. But they’ve scrimped and scrounged and put together rotations that run deep in their adequacy, and ZiPS doesn’t see that changing this season.

There’s one huge exception here, and it comes in the form of Brandon Woodruff. The team’s been cautious with him, and he missed time in 2019 due to an oblique injury, but if any pitcher on this staff becomes an ace, he’s the one to bet on. Woodruff’s two-seamer and improved changeup give him a deep enough repertoire to go deep into games, and his ZiPS-projected WAR of 2.2 is only that low because the system is only projecting 122.2 innings.

Josh Lindblom has had an interesting career path. It looked a lot like he was going to establish himself as a full-time reliever in the majors in 2011 and 2012, and struggled when put back into the rotation. He found his way to Korea for four seasons with a temporary return to the States in 2017 with the Pirates. Lindblom blew up in his second Korean stint, winning the Choi Dong-won Award, Korea’s Cy Young equivalent, the last two seasons. ZiPS think he’s improved enough to be yet another solidly average pitcher for the Brewers. Don’t get too excited about Lindblom’s 2019 2.50 ERA in Korea; the KBO was somehow able to do what small, mom-and-pop Major League Baseball couldn’t and switch balls to keep the league’s offense under control.

I was disappointed no major league team took a look at Jay Jackson, who has since signed with Hiroshima. A former Cubs prospect from waaaaay back, Jackson finally clicked as a fastball-slider reliever and resurfaced with the Brewers in 2019. He allowed too many walks in the majors, but a pitcher who can throw in the mid-90s and strike out 14 batters a game in the majors is worth exploring. Six homers in 30.1 innings in the majors is too many, but Jackson survived the Pacific Coast League allowing just a single homer.

Prospects

It’s kinda weird how little came of the team’s minor league outfield depth a few years ago. Lewis Brinson has been a major bust for the Marlins and truth be told, Corey Ray‘s not looking much better, even if you give him a lot of leeway due to a finger injury. Ray has now hit .235/.311/.406 in just under 400 minor league games, and he’s not going to be Harrison Bader or Kevin Kiermaier in center field. Brett Phillips’s prospect status is long over; he may not even get a full-time chance with the Royals with Alex Gordon back in the mix. There’s more hope for Trent Grisham, who finally started hitting in 2019, but if that continues, it will be with the Padres.

ZiPS agrees with Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel’s final farm rankings from 2019, and doesn’t see a lot of help from the minors now that Keston Hiura has graduated. There’s not a lot of depth for the major league squad this summer, which I believe is part of the reason Milwaukee’s been filling out the roster with veterans like Healy, Logan Morrison, and Ronny Rodríguez.

Outside of Clayton Andrews, there aren’t any fringe prospects in the organization who ZiPS finds particularly compelling. Andrews has an unusual package of skills as a soft-tossing lefty who is a little bit taller than Tyrion Lannister. A small lefty who doesn’t throw hard isn’t that strange, but Andrews was also a plate discipline machine in college, walking 52 times against just 11 strikeouts between his JuCo and Long Beach State. How many pitching prospects do you know who appeared in more professional games as an outfielder (74 vs. 58)? Andrews has hit .333/.391/.381 in 69 plate appearances in the minors and is well-regarded defensively in center field. I’m not sure there’s a role in the majors for a fifth outfielder who can get batters out with a 70 mph changeup, but I really hope such a possibility exists because I like players who break molds.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

 

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Christian Yelich L 28 RF 627 539 99 163 34 4 34 106 77 130 24 3
Keston Hiura R 23 2B 604 547 83 148 33 5 27 86 42 157 16 7
Luis Urias R 23 SS 602 526 78 132 28 6 14 76 59 129 6 2
Lorenzo Cain R 34 CF 567 511 71 141 24 2 10 43 48 96 17 6
Avisail Garcia R 29 RF 524 484 65 135 25 3 21 79 31 119 7 3
Justin Smoak B 33 1B 490 415 55 97 20 0 22 71 70 118 0 0
Jedd Gyorko R 31 3B 350 311 40 77 13 1 15 49 35 81 3 0
Ryan Braun R 36 1B 450 411 59 111 24 2 19 67 32 90 9 3
Omar Narvaez L 28 C 420 370 47 100 15 0 16 45 44 74 0 1
Logan Morrison L 32 1B 376 335 49 82 18 1 21 57 34 86 1 1
Eric Sogard L 34 3B 407 360 46 92 19 1 7 31 39 60 6 1
Manny Pina R 33 C 273 247 25 59 12 1 7 31 19 65 1 0
Cory Spangenberg L 29 2B 542 496 63 123 21 5 14 59 38 161 19 3
Mark Mathias R 25 2B 469 416 51 95 24 2 9 42 39 111 10 2
Jace Peterson L 30 3B 433 382 47 93 19 4 8 47 45 84 12 4
David Freitas R 31 C 353 317 40 82 18 0 7 36 31 65 0 0
Orlando Arcia R 25 SS 554 509 55 125 21 2 13 58 38 112 10 5
Ryon Healy R 28 1B 482 451 57 118 27 0 23 77 26 104 0 0
Tyrone Taylor R 26 RF 431 395 48 93 18 3 14 50 26 97 6 2
Tyler Saladino R 30 SS 346 310 39 71 13 2 10 40 30 88 8 2
Ronny Rodriguez R 28 2B 485 457 52 112 21 4 18 68 19 118 7 3
Tyler Austin R 28 1B 328 290 45 66 16 2 17 57 34 114 3 1
Ben Gamel L 28 LF 461 411 58 104 22 4 8 44 43 114 6 3
Max McDowell R 26 C 314 273 29 53 11 1 3 19 26 76 3 1
Mario Feliciano R 21 C 473 439 50 93 18 4 17 58 24 179 1 2
Jake Hager R 27 2B 371 341 37 75 16 2 10 37 23 102 5 2
Keon Broxton R 30 CF 365 325 42 63 10 2 13 36 35 158 18 7
Alexander Palma R 24 RF 217 204 23 49 10 1 7 23 10 49 3 1
Luis Castro R 24 1B 486 421 58 90 18 2 15 49 45 147 9 4
Brice Turang L 20 SS 539 475 55 102 15 5 4 32 58 133 20 5
Lucas Erceg L 25 3B 472 433 49 95 19 1 13 48 34 121 3 3
Cooper Hummel B 25 LF 392 333 45 67 12 3 10 37 50 125 3 4
Tuffy Gosewisch R 36 C 226 204 20 38 9 0 4 17 16 62 0 1
Blake Allemand B 27 2B 316 287 31 64 12 2 7 28 22 77 1 2
Jacob Nottingham R 25 C 343 309 35 62 14 1 9 36 24 118 4 2
Patrick Leonard R 27 1B 454 414 45 89 21 1 10 42 33 156 6 2
Bruce Caldwell L 28 SS 393 350 38 69 14 1 9 35 36 140 1 2
C.J. Hinojosa R 25 2B 450 411 43 95 19 2 7 37 32 77 3 4
Corey Ray L 25 CF 443 402 45 77 18 2 13 43 37 180 13 7
Payton Henry R 23 C 465 425 43 80 15 2 12 45 24 174 1 2
Pat McInerney R 25 1B 322 284 31 47 13 1 9 29 32 133 2 2
Dillon Thomas L 27 RF 456 414 43 85 20 3 8 39 31 165 14 8
Joantgel Segovia R 23 LF 501 462 47 108 19 2 6 37 30 95 11 9
Chad Spanberger L 24 RF 482 443 49 91 19 2 16 53 32 155 5 3
Ryan Aguilar L 25 1B 484 422 47 77 14 3 8 34 54 179 6 2
Tristen Lutz R 21 CF 503 456 51 87 20 3 15 51 38 191 4 3
Jake Gatewood R 24 3B 452 418 45 77 16 2 14 47 29 190 4 1

 

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Christian Yelich .302 .394 .570 149 .267 .344 9.1 1 5.4 Will Clark
Keston Hiura .271 .336 .497 115 .227 .333 6.2 -6 2.8 Adrian Beltre
Luis Urias .251 .339 .407 95 .156 .308 5.0 3 2.6 Jay Bell
Lorenzo Cain .276 .342 .389 92 .114 .323 5.1 9 2.5 Darryl Hamilton
Avisail Garcia .279 .328 .473 107 .194 .331 5.8 -1 1.6 Rondell White
Justin Smoak .234 .349 .441 106 .207 .273 5.4 0 1.5 Graham Koonce
Jedd Gyorko .248 .323 .441 98 .193 .288 5.2 2 1.5 Ed Spiezio
Ryan Braun .270 .327 .477 107 .207 .305 5.8 0 1.3 Fernando Tatis
Omar Narvaez .270 .351 .441 106 .170 .300 5.7 -10 1.3 Joe Azcue
Logan Morrison .245 .322 .493 109 .248 .268 5.6 0 1.2 Carmelo Martinez
Eric Sogard .256 .331 .372 85 .117 .290 4.6 2 1.0 Marco Scutaro
Manny Pina .239 .301 .381 78 .142 .297 4.1 5 0.9 Robert Machado
Cory Spangenberg .248 .307 .395 83 .147 .340 4.6 -2 0.9 Bo Hart
Mark Mathias .228 .302 .361 73 .132 .291 4.0 5 0.9 Edgar Gonzalez
Jace Peterson .243 .326 .377 84 .134 .293 4.5 0 0.8 Stubby Clapp
David Freitas .259 .329 .382 86 .123 .306 4.6 -3 0.8 Alan Ashby
Orlando Arcia .246 .299 .371 75 .126 .292 4.0 2 0.7 Wilson Delgado
Ryon Healy .262 .303 .475 100 .213 .293 5.3 -3 0.7 Daryle Ward
Tyrone Taylor .235 .291 .403 80 .167 .278 4.2 7 0.7 Mike Peeples
Tyler Saladino .229 .301 .381 78 .152 .288 4.2 0 0.7 Chris Clapinski
Ronny Rodriguez .245 .274 .427 80 .182 .293 4.2 1 0.6 Fred Manrique
Tyler Austin .228 .308 .472 101 .245 .308 5.1 -2 0.5 John Vander Wal
Ben Gamel .253 .326 .384 86 .131 .332 4.5 -1 0.2 Ryan Spilborghs
Max McDowell .194 .283 .275 48 .081 .258 2.6 7 0.2 Brian Moon
Mario Feliciano .212 .260 .387 67 .175 .313 3.4 0 0.2 Joel Skinner
Jake Hager .220 .271 .367 65 .147 .284 3.5 4 0.1 Tripp Cromer
Keon Broxton .194 .275 .357 64 .163 .325 3.4 1 0.0 Jon VanEvery
Alexander Palma .240 .281 .402 77 .162 .284 4.1 1 0.0 Jose Malave
Luis Castro .214 .309 .373 78 .159 .290 4.0 1 0.0 Jason Botts
Brice Turang .215 .301 .293 57 .078 .290 3.2 0 -0.2 Nick Punto
Lucas Erceg .219 .278 .358 65 .139 .274 3.4 2 -0.2 Jose Valdez
Cooper Hummel .201 .319 .345 75 .144 .288 3.6 -2 -0.3 Jason Evans
Tuffy Gosewisch .186 .258 .289 44 .103 .246 2.4 2 -0.3 Tony Pena
Blake Allemand .223 .288 .352 67 .129 .281 3.4 -2 -0.3 Pedro Lopez
Jacob Nottingham .201 .274 .340 60 .139 .291 3.1 -4 -0.4 Del Marine
Patrick Leonard .215 .278 .343 62 .128 .319 3.3 7 -0.4 Jim Beswick
Bruce Caldwell .197 .273 .320 55 .123 .299 2.9 -1 -0.5 Douglas Bernier
C.J. Hinojosa .231 .286 .338 64 .107 .269 3.3 -2 -0.6 Keoni DeRenne
Corey Ray .192 .262 .343 57 .152 .306 3.0 -1 -0.8 Corey Brown
Payton Henry .188 .252 .318 48 .129 .285 2.6 1 -0.8 Lee Evans
Pat McInerney .165 .259 .313 49 .148 .268 2.6 2 -1.1 Shawn Buhner
Dillon Thomas .205 .272 .326 56 .121 .320 3.0 2 -1.1 William Blake
Joantgel Segovia .234 .285 .323 60 .089 .283 3.1 2 -1.2 Mike Dzurilla
Chad Spanberger .205 .263 .366 63 .160 .276 3.3 -2 -1.3 Ryan Goleski
Ryan Aguilar .182 .279 .287 49 .104 .294 2.7 4 -1.3 Gary Coffee
Tristen Lutz .191 .258 .346 57 .156 .288 2.9 -6 -1.4 Kyler Burke
Jake Gatewood .184 .239 .333 48 .148 .294 2.7 -5 -1.7 Raul Tablado

 

Pitchers – Advanced
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Brandon Woodruff R 27 8 6 3.74 26 23 122.7 110 51 15 39 135 3.52
Josh Hader L 26 6 2 2.45 61 0 73.3 41 20 9 28 133 2.29
Adrian Houser R 27 7 6 4.09 37 22 121.0 116 55 16 41 119 3.95
Brent Suter L 30 6 5 3.76 26 15 93.3 90 39 14 18 88 3.82
Josh Lindblom R 33 9 9 4.48 25 24 142.7 144 71 23 42 135 4.27
Eric Lauer L 25 9 9 4.65 29 28 143.3 147 74 24 52 138 4.52
Corbin Burnes R 25 5 4 4.06 40 14 95.3 88 43 12 36 105 3.75
Freddy Peralta R 24 7 6 4.35 42 15 113.7 99 55 17 53 134 4.17
Brett Anderson L 32 9 9 4.70 26 26 136.0 154 71 18 38 76 4.62
Alec Bettinger R 24 6 7 4.72 26 26 131.7 134 69 23 44 127 4.52
Jesus Castillo R 24 7 7 4.46 38 15 105.0 112 52 12 35 69 4.35
Corey Knebel R 28 3 2 3.06 48 0 47.0 33 16 5 23 70 3.05
Alex Claudio L 28 3 2 3.52 72 0 64.0 63 25 4 18 43 3.49
Jeremy Jeffress R 32 4 3 3.53 55 0 58.7 54 23 6 20 53 3.73
Drew Rasmussen R 24 2 2 4.66 15 15 73.3 64 38 12 41 88 4.58
Thomas Jankins R 24 8 9 5.05 26 23 133.7 150 75 23 39 95 4.87
Dylan File R 24 10 11 5.10 26 26 137.7 154 78 27 32 108 4.86
Bowden Francis R 24 8 9 5.10 28 26 130.7 134 74 22 63 125 4.90
Deolis Guerra R 31 2 2 3.84 44 1 58.7 52 25 9 17 68 3.73
Jay Jackson R 32 4 3 3.75 58 0 62.3 52 26 9 25 77 3.79
Aaron Wilkerson R 31 5 6 4.93 23 18 95.0 96 52 17 38 92 4.77
Trey Supak R 24 8 10 5.28 27 27 136.3 146 80 26 45 108 5.07
J.P. Feyereisen R 27 6 5 4.08 40 0 57.3 48 26 7 33 71 4.02
Angel Perdomo L 26 4 4 4.86 37 8 76.0 65 41 10 56 93 4.65
Eric Yardley R 29 2 2 4.25 50 0 65.7 68 31 7 20 47 4.05
Clayton Andrews L 23 4 3 4.22 38 0 53.3 47 25 8 28 65 4.27
Ray Black R 30 2 2 4.19 48 0 43.0 32 20 6 28 64 3.97
Jake Faria R 26 6 7 5.17 37 14 101.0 100 58 18 51 99 5.05
Chris Lee L 27 3 3 5.09 20 6 63.7 66 36 8 32 48 4.81
Miguel Sanchez R 26 4 4 4.76 38 3 58.7 56 31 10 27 63 4.63
Tyler Spurlin R 29 2 2 4.50 32 1 36.0 34 18 3 22 32 4.32
Luke Barker R 28 3 2 4.50 41 0 52.0 50 26 9 19 53 4.49
Shelby Miller R 29 4 6 5.42 24 17 84.7 91 51 14 43 73 5.13
Quintin Torres-Costa L 25 4 4 4.53 39 0 49.7 42 25 7 34 62 4.57
Devin Williams R 25 4 4 4.57 48 0 63.0 54 32 9 45 79 4.67
Bobby Wahl R 28 2 2 4.55 31 0 31.7 27 16 5 21 42 4.57
Taylor Williams R 28 4 4 4.62 56 0 64.3 63 33 9 30 65 4.38
Jon Olczak R 26 3 3 4.68 38 0 50.0 50 26 8 20 47 4.58
Matt Albers R 37 5 5 4.68 56 0 50.0 48 26 8 20 48 4.54
Justin Grimm R 31 4 4 4.68 51 0 57.7 50 30 9 33 71 4.46
Zack Brown R 25 4 6 5.59 24 22 114.3 123 71 21 58 93 5.46
Daniel Brown L 25 3 3 5.06 38 1 53.3 51 30 4 45 47 4.92
Anthony Bender R 25 3 4 5.46 30 5 61.0 67 37 10 29 42 5.36
Bubba Derby R 26 6 8 5.65 27 17 108.3 118 68 23 50 94 5.59
Braden Webb R 25 4 7 6.30 23 21 74.3 76 52 12 68 69 6.17

 

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Brandon Woodruff 9.9 2.9 1.1 7.6% 26.2% .297 116 86 2.3 Pascual Perez
Josh Hader 16.3 3.4 1.1 9.7% 46.0% .276 176 57 2.2 Al Hrabosky
Adrian Houser 8.9 3.0 1.2 7.9% 23.0% .298 106 94 1.8 Denny Galehouse
Brent Suter 8.5 1.7 1.4 4.7% 22.9% .291 115 87 1.7 Jake Miller
Josh Lindblom 8.5 2.6 1.5 6.9% 22.1% .300 97 103 1.6 Earthman Bill Lee
Eric Lauer 8.7 3.3 1.5 8.3% 22.0% .304 93 107 1.3 Jeff Mutis
Corbin Burnes 9.9 3.4 1.1 8.8% 25.7% .303 107 94 1.3 Shane Komine
Freddy Peralta 10.6 4.2 1.3 10.8% 27.3% .291 99 101 1.2 Ed Whitson
Brett Anderson 5.0 2.5 1.2 6.4% 12.8% .298 92 108 1.2 Paul Minner
Alec Bettinger 8.7 3.0 1.6 7.7% 22.2% .300 92 109 1.1 Cha-Seung Baek
Jesus Castillo 5.9 3.0 1.0 7.6% 15.0% .296 97 103 1.0 Ed Linke
Corey Knebel 13.4 4.4 1.0 11.7% 35.5% .289 141 71 0.9 Jim Kern
Alex Claudio 6.0 2.5 0.6 6.6% 15.9% .291 123 81 0.8 Leo Kiely
Jeremy Jeffress 8.1 3.1 0.9 8.0% 21.3% .287 123 81 0.7 Kent Tekulve
Drew Rasmussen 10.8 5.0 1.5 12.6% 27.1% .289 93 108 0.7 Dustin Nippert
Thomas Jankins 6.4 2.6 1.5 6.6% 16.2% .300 86 117 0.7 Rick Wise
Dylan File 7.1 2.1 1.8 5.4% 18.1% .301 85 118 0.6 Carlos Silva
Bowden Francis 8.6 4.3 1.5 10.7% 21.3% .303 85 118 0.6 Ed Wojna
Deolis Guerra 10.4 2.6 1.4 7.0% 27.9% .293 113 89 0.6 Brian Meadows
Jay Jackson 11.1 3.6 1.3 9.5% 29.3% .289 115 87 0.6 Mike DeJean
Aaron Wilkerson 8.7 3.6 1.6 9.1% 22.1% .298 88 114 0.5 Julian Tavarez
Trey Supak 7.1 3.0 1.7 7.5% 18.1% .292 82 122 0.4 Jason Karnuth
J.P. Feyereisen 11.1 5.2 1.1 13.0% 28.1% .295 106 94 0.3 Clay Bryant
Angel Perdomo 11.0 6.6 1.2 16.0% 26.6% .297 89 112 0.3 Luke Walker
Eric Yardley 6.4 2.7 1.0 7.1% 16.6% .296 102 98 0.3 Frank Linzy
Clayton Andrews 11.0 4.7 1.4 12.0% 27.8% .298 103 97 0.2 Buzz Oliver
Ray Black 13.4 5.9 1.3 14.8% 33.9% .292 103 97 0.2 Colter Bean
Jake Faria 8.8 4.5 1.6 11.3% 21.9% .294 84 119 0.2 Tim Byron
Chris Lee 6.8 4.5 1.1 11.1% 16.7% .296 85 117 0.1 Ted Bowsfield
Miguel Sanchez 9.7 4.1 1.5 10.5% 24.4% .297 91 110 0.1 Nguyen Van Phuoc
Tyler Spurlin 8.0 5.5 0.8 13.5% 19.6% .298 96 104 0.1 Bruce Dal Canton
Luke Barker 9.2 3.3 1.6 8.5% 23.7% .293 96 104 0.1 Trey Witte
Shelby Miller 7.8 4.6 1.5 11.2% 19.0% .306 80 125 0.0 Jesse Jefferson
Quintin Torres-Costa 11.2 6.2 1.3 15.1% 27.6% .294 96 105 0.0 Grant Jackson
Devin Williams 11.3 6.4 1.3 15.6% 27.4% .298 95 106 0.0 Clay Bryant
Bobby Wahl 11.9 6.0 1.4 14.7% 29.4% .301 95 105 0.0 Gabriel Dehoyos
Taylor Williams 9.1 4.2 1.3 10.5% 22.8% .303 94 107 0.0 Jose Segura
Jon Olczak 8.5 3.6 1.4 9.1% 21.5% .298 93 108 0.0 Laddie Renfroe
Matt Albers 8.6 3.6 1.4 9.2% 22.0% .288 93 108 0.0 Dave Giusti
Justin Grimm 11.1 5.2 1.4 12.9% 27.8% .293 93 108 -0.1 Marc Wilkins
Zack Brown 7.3 4.6 1.7 11.1% 17.8% .297 78 129 -0.1 Sean White
Daniel Brown 7.9 7.6 0.7 17.6% 18.4% .301 86 117 -0.2 Mike Cosgrove
Anthony Bender 6.2 4.3 1.5 10.4% 15.1% .295 79 126 -0.2 Don Carrithers
Bubba Derby 7.8 4.2 1.9 10.2% 19.1% .299 77 130 -0.2 Sean White
Braden Webb 8.4 8.2 1.5 18.5% 18.8% .300 69 145 -0.6 Edwin Morel

 

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers by Dan Szymborski!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
stonepie
Member
stonepie

dylan file with the carlos silva comparison- looked at silva’s page and forgot how few batters he struck out(3.5 k/9) despite a few ~2 WAR seasons a while back

Anon
Member
Member
Anon

Silva survived by walking nobody. I always remember him because he’s a member of the rare “as many wins as walks in a season” club when he went 9-8 with 9 BB for the entire season in 2005.

Trivia: Since 1969 there have only been 3 qualified seasons where a pitcher won as many or more games than BB given up for the year. Silva was one of them, can you name the other 2?

******SPOILER******

Answer: Bret Saberhagen in 1994 (14-4 with 13 BB) and Phil Hughes in 2014 (16-10 with 16 BB). Drop the IP limit to 140 and you bring in Kershaw’s 2016 when he went 12-4 with 11 BB.

As for Dylan File, he nearly did it in his 12 starts at high-A last year – 6-4 with 7 BB. . . .

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

This got me wondering: Who are the starters with the lowest walk rates since 1980? (I picked 1980 because, well, it’s arbitrary). I set a minimum of 300 IPs.
Here’s the list:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=1980&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1980-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=10,a

Saberhagen and Silva are both up there, but the name that I think is most interesting is Bob Tewksbury. Somehow, he managed a FIP of 3.65 despite only striking out 4 batters per nine innings, due to almost never walking anyone and almost never giving up home runs.

Our modern day winners include Josh Tomlin (who is actually the best at refusing to issue walks) and Miles Mikolas. Go back a little further and you’ve got Silva, Brad Radke, and Kevin Slowey, all of whom were part of those Twins teams about a decade ago.

Also, of the guys who gave up a ton of walks, most of them eventually became relievers or were shuffled out of the league, which isn’t that surprising, but Bobby Witt definitely deserves a mention for pitching over 2000 innings as a starter and putting up 27.8 fWAR despite walking 5 batters per nine. Even had a 5-win season back in 1990, thanks to some pretty amazing homer suppression.