2025 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Mets.

Batters

It’s funny how a few months can change the vibes surrounding a team. After a disappointing 75-87 season in 2023, the Mets had a relatively light winter going into 2024. While the team didn’t squeeze every penny until it screamed like, say, the Marlins, Sean Manaea’s two-year, $28 million contract was the big ticket signing, with the rest of the free agents brought in came on one-year deals to fill specific short-term roster holes. The rather bland winter transitioned into an equally bland season. Or, shall I say, an equally bland start of the season. Because a funny thing happened on the way to the draft lottery: After dwelling below .500 as late as July 6, the Mets played nearly .600 ball in the second half, made it into the playoffs, and fell only two wins short of reaching the World Series.

By contrast, this winter has been a loud one, mainly due to the addition of Juan Soto, who signed the largest contract in professional sports. Soto’s addition gives the Mets one of the most feared offensive forces of this generation, and though the Mets didn’t struggle with run scoring in 2024, his addition likely wipes out the potential impact of any regression toward the mean from players like Mark Vientos or Francisco Lindor. With Soto on the team now, the Mets project as average or better at every single lineup spot. This sets up an odd kind of philosophical debate in which the Mets may be one of the teams that needs Pete Alonso’s 2025 services the least while wanting them the most! So is the life of a good first baseman heading to over-30 land and showing some early signs of fading.

ZiPS is a big fan of Jose Siri starting in center field for the Mets, and with Brandon Nimmo joining Soto at the corners, the outfield shouldn’t be a worry for the Mets. Vientos likely takes over at first in an Alonso-less world, with Brett Baty getting what is likely his last chance with the Mets. While I wouldn’t want to count on Baty working out, one has to take chances on players like him; remember when everyone was piling on the Mets before 2024 for having faith in Vientos? Over at second, Jeff McNeil’s on the downslope of his career and recovering from a broken wrist, but ZiPS thinks he’ll rebound enough to keep the position about league average. McNeil’s approach at the plate, which results in a lot of contact against pitches he really shouldn’t be swinging at, will continue to be maddening at times, of course; entering his mid-30s, he’s not likely to reinvent himself as a hitter.

Bottom line: By pairing Soto with Lindor, the Mets have a really good offense, one that may be just a skosh behind the elite ones.

Pitchers

ZiPS like the Mets’ offense quite a lot, but its cyber-feelings about the rotation are more mild satisfaction than enthrallment. Of the breakout soft-tossers from 2024, ZiPS much prefers former Met Seth Lugo to current Met Manaea. And yes, I’m old enough to still feel in my heart that it’s weird that guys throwing 92-93 mph are the soft-tossers. ZiPS does have confidence in Kodai Senga and the Clay Holmes Starting Experiment, and it sees David Peterson as a solid league-average starter. Where the computer doesn’t have much confidence is in Frankie Montas, but if he’s their fifth-best starter, they’re not doing too badly.

ZiPS believes the Mets have pretty solid starting pitching depth behind the front five, too, but oddly enough, not in the first two pitchers likely heading that queue: Paul Blackburn and Griffin Canning. The projections would much rather see Brandon Sproat get an aggressive call-up if an early need presents itself, and lesser prospect Jonah Tong also has a solid projection. Prospects like Blade Tidwell, Dom Hamel, and Nolan McLean also come out on par with or even better than the veteran backups.

As for the bullpen, ZiPS kind of sees a really polarizing unit, not all that different from what Steamer projects. Edwin Díaz, José Buttó, Reed Garrett, and Dedniel Núñez all project solidly, but then there’s a big step down to the next tier. Basically all of the WAR accrued in the ZiPS projections are from these top four relievers; of the remaining guys, ZiPS is especially skeptical about Danny Young, Génesis Cabrera, Blackburn or Canning in relief, and Chris Devenski. Getting a couple bullpen arms would benefit the Mets greatly, even though signing middle relievers wouldn’t be as sexy as landing Roki Sasaki. (Then again, maybe for the Mets it isn’t an either/or choice.)

The Mets look a lot like an 87-91 win team or so, with the possibility of adding a handful more wins with other moves this winter. I suspect the Braves and Phillies will have slightly better projections by the start of the season – unless New York pulls off another huge deal – but the Mets are right in the thick of it, and a division title is certainly a possibility.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.