2026 Mock Draft 1.0
Here is my first mock draft of the year, compiled with rumors sourced from scouts, executives, agents, and sometimes educated guesses based on team/personnel tendencies from the recent past. If there is enough new information between now and the draft (there usually is), I’ll publish an updated mock on Saturday morning, before things fire off. You can find updated scouting reports and tool grades for over 100 players on The Board, including all of the players mocked below. I’ve hard-ranked all of the 40+ FV and above players, with the others currently grouped by demographic. Later this week, I’ll offer my thoughts on the class as a whole; we’ll also release our final rankings. Brendan and I are working on expanding and augmenting the draft rankings for players likely to go in the middle rounds, so aspects of that part of the website might have an “under construction” look at times during the next few days as we shuffle things around and fold the demographic groups into a final ordinal ranking.
1. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (TX)
The top tier of this draft is generally seen as three players deep: Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. Teams picking behind the top three believe the most likely scenario is that those guys will come off the board in some order, with Roch and Emerson having been mentioned up top with Chicago, while Lackey has not been. The White Sox attempted to sign Cholowsky out of high school and no doubt like him, but everyone has the same question about Roch: Will his swing work in pro ball as well as it has so far? There really aren’t questions like that about Emerson. We might learn pretty quickly that Cholowsky is going to strike out more than we want him to, whereas that seems unlikely for Emerson. Conversely, Emerson might surprise us and get stronger than we expect, at which point he’d pretty clearly have the best ceiling of this trio, and you can’t really say that about the college guys, who can either meet our expectations or fall short of them.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
This seems like a match made in heaven for both player and team. The Rays have been looking for their catcher of the future for a long time, and they value the things Lackey does well (like throw and play defense) as highly as any team. He’d move quickly and aid a perpetually competitive roster, and perhaps exorcise the Buster Posey/Tim Beckham demons. If the Rays want to cut an under-slot deal, Tyler Bell is the player I would both recommend and predict the Rays do it with given that they drafted him coming out of high school.
3. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
The Twins seem likely to take whichever of the top three players remains, which in this scenario is Cholowsky. When the Giants traded for Cleveland’s comp pick in May as part of the Patrick Bailey deal, there was speculation that it might be with an eye toward buying one of the top three players back to the fourth pick. If that’s true and I’m Minnesota, I’m asking for forgiveness and not permission as I take that player. I’m turning in the name without having a conversation with the agent and daring them not to take slot here, especially if it’s a college player who remains.
4. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
I’m cutting against the grain of my sources here, who have tended to put one of the next tier of high school hitters with San Francisco. That’s simply not what the Giants did last year under their current leadership; instead, they took safe college players. That hasn’t solely been their modus operandi since Michael Holmes became Amateur Director in 2022 (they drafted Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin in 2023), but it mostly has been, Dakota Jordan aside. The other decision-makers (Posey and Zack Minasian) were inserted late in 2024. Maybe that means they’ve had an opportunity to get comfortable with this year’s high school class in a way that wasn’t true of last year’s group, putting high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr. and shortstop Jacob Lombard truly in play here. Teams picking behind the Giants certainly think so. No pitcher is “safe,” but Flora’s combination of ceiling, proximity, and polish (not to mention good vibes, which the Giants badly need) threads the needle for them and fits better with the way the team has actually behaved of late. I’d have Booth ahead of Lombard here if it turns out I’m wrong; there’s just a different degree of risk associated with the latter.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS (MS)
It makes sense for the Pirates to cut here because they have four top-51 selections and there’s a good chance they could buy back a top-30 player to at least one of those, but they simply haven’t operated like that lately. They’ve happily taken high schoolers for slot and still walked away from drafts with lots of exciting young talent without having to get creative. There’s industry speculation that the suddenly competitive Pirates will take a college player who can move quickly to help the big league cause, but as we’ve seen with Konnor Griffin, it doesn’t necessarily take long for the high schoolers to arrive when you draft the right one.
6. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep (FL)
There is persistent industry buzz that the Royals are at least considering cutting a deal here, right on down to the amount they’d be looking to save (about $2 million), but logically, that’s contingent upon the players they like a lot being gone when they pick. I am not sure what they think of Lombard. Scouting Director Brian Bridges has had an appetite for hit tool risk before (Jac Caglianone, Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond were the tops picks in his two drafts as Royals’ Director) and he was with the Giants they drafted Eldridge, Martin, and Reggie Crawford. Lombard is in that category of player. If the Royals cut a deal, the names bandied about have been two-way high school player Jared Grindlinger, top high school pitcher Gio Rojas, and USC left-hander Mason Edwards.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
The Orioles have drafted toolsy hitters with strikeout issues, including some who feel like they have zero chance to hit (like Vance Honeycutt), and in that vein, folks are putting them with Lombard if he’s here. More broadly, the Orioles prioritize players who can access power and have positional value, and similar to Colton Cowser a few years ago, Bell is that guy. Of the college hitters who project to start coming off the board in this range, Bell, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron, and Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick are the players who best fit that description, along with high school third baseman Bo Lowrance (who I have ranked in this range).
8. Athletics
Pick: Christopher Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M
The A’s tend to be on college bats, including ones who have little to no defensive ability, especially when they have some elite data characteristics. That’s Hacopian to a tee. He has a 95-97% contact rate versus fastballs the last two seasons, including on Cape Cod, and performed this way despite fighting through injury. On the one hand, the injuries have limited his data sample and made it less reliable. On the other, it’s incredible what he’s done despite being dinged up. LSU center fielder Derek Curiel and Louisville outfielder Zion Rose (this is the earliest he’s been mentioned) are the other college hitters with a premium data trait (contact) in this range, and there are folks picking behind the A’s who think they might see Ryder Helfrick as a Sean Murphy reboot.
9. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Derek Curiel, CF, LSU
The Braves tend to prioritize up-the-middle players regardless of whether they’re high school or college players, and they’ve been willing to use top picks on high school pitching in recent years. It might be tempting for them to take Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress here. He’s a local kid, and they have first hand knowledge of the fact that small players can be great (Ozzie Albies). It’d be fun, but Burress isn’t a center field lock like Curiel is, and the Braves love to take speed/contact guys who they help to swing harder and unlock power. Curiel fits that bill. I’ve heard Christopher Hacopian’s name here, too. There’s speculation that Florida high school lefty Gio Rojas could be a fit here, but all the high school pitchers the Braves take have pretty deliveries, and Rojas does not.
10. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville
When a team has turnover at the top of their front office, I tend to mock college players to them the following year because it’s much easier to get up to speed on the college class since the important high school activity has already happened when they’re hired. Rockies GM Josh Byrnes, who came from the Dodgers, has always seen lots of players throughout the amateur calendar, so I’m not sure that logic holds as true for him as the baseline. That said, Rose, who has homes from here to the mid-20s, does a lot of the stuff the Dodgers targeted in their drafts while Byrnes was there. He hits for contact, he’s fast, and he might have another offensive gear if his approach and swing can be tweaked so that he pulls the ball more.
11. Washington Nationals
Pick: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
The Nats brought in Justin Horowitz from the Pirates and Desmond McGowan from the Mets analytics department to help navigate the draft under Paul Toboni. Horowitz, of course, piloted high-upside drafts in Pittsburgh, while the Mets’ draftee traits have been measurable power and pitchers with big stuff, but relief risk. Burress has the measurable power piece and would be nice value here. Gio Rojas would be the upside/relief risk guy in this spot (arguably Florida righty Liam Peterson, too), but I don’t have team-specific dope to that end. Two-way California high schooler Jared Grindlinger has been mentioned here.
12. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Mason Edwards, LHP, USC
Here’s a happy medium between what the Angels were doing under recently-fired GM Perry Minasian and what newly-hired John Mozeliak was doing in St. Louis. Edwards is a college lefty with knockout secondary stuff (especially his curveball) and a deceptive fastball that plays a little better than its velo, and he’s likely to move quickly. I’ve also heard the Angels with several of the college hitters who are already off the board in this scenario.
13. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (CA)
Grindlinger could go inside the top 10 on an under-slot deal, but he has homes from just before this pick running though the next several. The Cardinals’ approach has shifted from the command-oriented pitching prospects to guys with huge stuff and relief risk, which puts several of the next tier of college arms in play here.
14. Miami Marlins
Pick: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL)
The Marlins have targeted big upside in recent drafts, usually with power-hitting position players who have struggled to hit. A continuation of that strategy could lead them to Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron in this scenario. If they want to change course, well, most of the high-contact college hitters are off the board here. High school outfielder Trevor Condon is the prep version of that profile. This is late for the first prep arm to go and would be great value, with a cherry of positive optics on top because Rojas is local.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Trevor Condon, CF, Etowah HS (GA)
The D-backs like lefty bats and there are still several remaining here, though some of them have issues that would arguably make them feel like reaches. Mississippi State third baseman Ace Reese has huge power, but he strikes out a lot and can’t play defense, while Texas Tech and Virginia outfielders Logan Hughes and AJ Gracia are contact-oriented corner guys with modest power. I like third baseman Bo Lowrance enough to take him this high, but my sources have not connected him with Arizona. Condon is in their wheelhouse as a potential A.J. Ewing type of outfielder if he can add some pop as he gets stronger.
16. Texas Rangers
Pick: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
There are lots of exciting college pitchers with some kind of injury history lurking in this portion of the draft, but Dietz’s issue (a stress fracture in his elbow) was a couple of years ago and he dominated the SEC this year.
17. Houston Astros
Pick: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
The Astros love toolsy, strikeout-prone college players, and they get an extreme version of that profile here with Lebron. Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson has also been mentioned with them, but it’s unclear if they’d have to take him here or if Jackson would make it to their next pick. High school third baseman Bo Lowrance’s range seems to start here.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
The Reds have taken many players from Florida (the state and the university) over the years, and they aren’t obsessed with fastball shape (Peterson’s isn’t great), caring more about velocity and breaking ball quality, which Peterson has plenty of. Ryder Helfrick would be excellent value here, as he’s likely to be a good defensive catcher and get to power despite lots of strikeouts. There’s some Trevor Condon smoke if he gets here.
19. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS (CA)
The Guardians tend to take someone who, four months ago, we’d have been shocked to learn had fallen so far. Sometimes that’s been Chase DeLauter and sometimes it’s Jace LaViolette. There are a number of players who either had down seasons or who felt like they plateaued in a disappointing way. Spangler looked like a top-15 pick coming out of last summer, then missed most of his senior year with injury and looked rusty at the Combine. Coastal Carolina righty Cameron Flukey is another faller. He entered the season as arguably the top pitcher in the class, but missed two months due to a stress fracture in his ribs and was wild when he returned.
20. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
The Red Sox used high picks on nasty pitchers with relief risk last year, and there are several still around at this pick, including ASU lefty Cole Carlon, but Flukey’s strike-throwing track record with his fastball is much better, which is something last year’s Sox picks have struggled with. This is also a spot mentioned for an under-slot deal with a college bat. NC State and TCU center fielders Ty Head and Chase Brunson are Boston’s type.
21. San Diego Padres
Pick: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal (SC)
Zion Rose would be in San Diego’s mix if he gets here, but I don’t think he’ll come close. Teams assume the Padres will be in play for whichever of the nasty lefties are still around (regardless of demo, though there are some who think they’ll just take another high schooler), but Lowrance does some of the things that Jackson Merril does, like cover the top of the strike zone with power, except he’s a huge-framed third baseman with the scout-y physical projection the Padres love. AJ Preller was at Notre Dame righty Jack Radel’s ACC Championship start, so perhaps he’s an under-slot option here.
22. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State
Carlon’s stuff would ordinarily come off the board in the middle of the first round, about where I’ve mocked Hunter Dietz, but he dealt with injury at the very end of the year (he was back for the Big 12 tournament and looked fine) and sometimes had trouble holding his velo deep into games. He has maybe the best breaking ball in the entire draft.
23. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas
The Cubs care a ton about Cape Cod performance, and Robbins, who has other homes toward the back of the first round, had a .936 OPS there in a huge sample.
24. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
This would be a surprising tumble for Helfrick, and he could easily go up where I have the other strikeout-prone college hitters. There will probably be a few good college pitchers left here in real life.
25. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Ace Reese, “3B”, Mississippi State
Similar to Andrew Fischer, Reese has huge lefty power but is probably not a third baseman. Could the Brewers coax more power out of a better pure hitter, like AJ Gracia or Logan Hughes?
26. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian (SC)
Bolemon is the Braves’ type of high school pitcher, a well-built athlete with a graceful delivery, vertical fastball attack, and a power breaking ball.
27. New York Mets
Pick: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
Unlike some of the other relief risk pitchers the Mets have taken and developed of late (like Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat), Kuhns’ issues have to do with the quality of his secondary pitches. He’s a great athlete who throws strikes with an uphill fastball, and has some low-hanging developmental fruit (throw harder versions of his breaking balls). High school catcher Will Brick gets mentioned here as well.
28. Houston Astros
Pick: Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia
As mentioned above, the Astros like toolsy college guys, even when they have strikeout issues. Jackson’s were particularly bad once conference play began, though he went on to win the Golden Spikes.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Did I miss it or does this mean AJ Gracia falls out of the first round on this mock?
This morning her was ranked #2 on the FG board…
That hadn’t been updated in a long time. Eric was always the high man on Gracia by a significant margin. Most have him going somewhere in the 20s.
CTRL-F
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today I learned…
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>Kuhns’ issues have to do with the quality of his secondary pitches.
Given how badly they’ve failed with Tong I think they might be better off drafting someone else.
nice username
Fascinated to see Edwards as the second arm off the board here. This draft definitely feels more hitter heavy on the top end than usual.
After Flora I think you could make an argument for any of Dietz, Flukey, Carlon, or Rabe as the next college arm, and it wouldn’t be crazy to see a team prefer Peterson, Edwards, or Kuhns, to any of them. It’s a big mess of 7-9 pitchers all lumped together.
Great call on Ty Head, I think he looks like a great prospect.
I think the players I am higher on than the consensus (and Eric is also pretty high on them, although at the upper end of the consensus range) are Tyler Bell and Taj Marchand. The top 3 position players are the guys I would take first but Eric Booth and Bell are not much behind them at all, and Marchand might have the highest upside in the draft. I would take him over Lombard.
I think I would also consider Landon Thome as more of a 45 or 45+, he doesn’t have big projection but he has great bat speed now.
I have to tell myself to chill every time I think that his dad came up as a third baseman and I think “well, who cares if he moves down the defensive spectrum…”
I like Landon Thome quite a bit as well. There seems to be some power upside there as he matures
I like the Brandon Lowe comp. And Brandon Lowe is a really good player.
If the White Sox truly believe that Emerson is the best player, they should take him.
But I worry that they are overthinking this, think they can save a little money on him, or (worst of all) think they already have Montgomery at SS, Vargas at 3B, and Carlson and Bonemer coming, so they don’t want a near MLB ready SS to clog things up and give them the kind of problems that good teams want. Those are all very bad reasons not to take Cholowsky and the sort of thing that bad teams do.
It’s baseball. Prospects flame out all the time, young guys grow out of the position, and you can always find a place to play a guy who can hit.
Take. The best. Player.
There is no consensus “best player” in this draft. Cholowsky is the most familiar name because he has been so good for so long, but he’s not an explosive athlete and doesn’t make elite contact. Lackey put himself in the conversation by adding power to already established strengths in contact and defense, while Emerson has the highest ceiling of the three.
If you looked at the top player on every team’s draft board, I don’t know that any of the three would have a majority.
I think Eric makes a good case for three players making up a single tier. After reading them all I can see why some evaluators might prefer any of them over the other. Lackey in particular is pretty awesome, although as we saw with Henry Davis sometimes catchers don’t pan out.
But personally I think there’s a bit of prospect fatigue with Cholowsky. People have been scouting Cholowsky for so long that his flaws are known. People are looking at Emerson and thinking that he hasn’t shown a hit tool issue yet, so his ceiling is higher. But that doesn’t mean he won’t get hit tool problems someday, and it’s not super likely that he will hit for more power or play better defense than Cholowsky.
So to me it feels a bit like people are overthinking a 40 hit, 60 raw, 70 field shortstop. That’s a 5+ win player. He could bust or Emerson could turn out to be a 6 win player but I would prefer Cholowsky.
Yeah, I agree on people getting a little cute/overthinking it with Cholowsky. He has flaws in his swing but has put up consistently excellent batting lines for two years against solid competition while playing a good to great SS.
He’s a lot safer to me than Emerson, or even Lackey, who is in the midst of a meteoric rise and who as a catcher has some more volatility as a prospect.
Lackey has risen from a mid first rounder to 1-1 contention because he added power to a profile that already had plus contact and plus defense. He’s probably the safest of three in terms of floor.
Cholowsky is going to be a plus defender but he has an absolutely absurd amount of bat wrap in his swing. On some pitches, it’s damned near pointing at the pitcher when he strides. That is something he will absolutely have to fix to be a successful major leaguer, and while that is possible for him to do, it’s not something you want to hear about a guy you’re taking 1-1 because if he doesn’t do it then he’s not going to hit enough.
Lackey I agree has a relatively high floor with the very stable hit tool and was a good prospect even before the power breakout, but I guess I am just always slightly skeptical of how catchers will translate to the grind of a full pro season behind the dish, that adds volatility to me. I think it for me it really just comes down to fact that I’m going to trust a college shortstop more than a college catcher.
I also can’t deny that I squint at Lackey and see shades of both Joey Bart and Kevin Parada, recent high profile catchers out of Tech who have both disappointed relative to draft position. I was never that high on Parada, he just never seemed like that great of a pure athlete to me, but I was burned pretty bad by Bart who I was sure would be much better than he has been.
That is perhaps a little irrational given that Lackey project to have much better contact abilities than Bart or Parada, and is probably a better overall athlete, but I think I’m going to remain at least a little skeptical of a catching prospect at Tech until further notice.
I agree that Cholowsky is going to be challenged against better pitching though, and I will be watching closely to see how on-time he can be against good fastballs in particular. The contact rate has been plenty good at UCLA, but I expect that even if pure contact isn’t a substantial problem in the pros, being late and failing to do pullside/in-the-air damage consistently might still be a struggle.
But unlike you, these teams have actually scouted him and watched in person. If they think ceiling is lower for RC, taking Emerson the smart move.
Oh I don’t doubt that teams have done their due diligence and have more information and expertise than I could ever have. I have never watched Emerson play, so he is largely a mystery box based on secondhand information to me. Cholowsky and Lackey, I have seen play, so I can offer more commentary.
My comment was more directed at non-team evaluators and casual draft analysts such as myself, warning that we have to be a bit mindful of prospect fatigue and “talking ourselves out of” a prospect’s future.
The reason I like Lackey is that he pairs above average defense behind the plate with plus contact. That’s exactly why I liked the Caden Bodine pick so much for the Orioles, and why I hated losing him in the Baz trade. That type of catcher has a high floor who is extremely likely to contribute positive value at the major league level. That being said, I am skeptical as to whether or not he will maintain this power increase, so I wouldn’t take him 1-1.
There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about his swing. The main reason I was always much more pessimistic about Jackson Holliday was how much trouble he had against premium fastball velocity. Cholowsky doesn’t have Holliday’s well below average bat speed, but he is going to need a swing change to have any chance of being a 115+ wRC+ guy in the majors.
He’s also not uber athletic, so while he has consistently been viewed as a plus defender, it’s not impossible to imagine his range declining to the point that it becomes average defense rather than plus if he thickens up in the lower body during his mid-20s.
That’s his absolute best case scenario. Dansby Swanson is a really good comp and Swanson has only crossed that threshold once. Cholowsky is much more likely to be somewhere in the 2 to 3 WAR range.
I mean if that’s what you think about Cholowsky I would much rather save some money on Bell or Booth and try and spread the money around a bit.
I like Lackey a lot too but catchers get beat up, it’s not anything like high school catchers but it’s still a concern. I may also still be a little freaked out by what happened to Henry Davis. So IDK.
Everyone loves the idea of spreading it around and signings a player under slot. How much success has that strategy actually had in the slotting era? Huston’s draft with Carlos Correa is obviously a big win, but the Pirates going that route with Henry Davis didn’t work out as well.
The Brewers and Cubs have done this occasionally and gotten great draft classes out of it.
The Cubs’ 2014 draft class is a bit of an outlier but it is a good representation of what happens when absolutely everything goes right, getting Schwarber, Steele, and Cease.
But I would say that if you have one guy you feel strongly about you should take that guy. For me that is Roch Cholowsky, but if you think he is a 2-3 win guy then obviously you wouldn’t do that. The alternatives would only come into play if you don’t buy that.
The big picture overall is that almost every path a team picks is likely to fail. The hit rate is abysmal for draft prospects. I am just not confident that Lackey and Emerson are better than Bell and Booth as prospects, so if I could spread the risk around a little bit more I think I would. That’s more to do with the specific players than any overall goal.
In 2020, the Orioles went significantly under slot on Heston Kjerstad at #2 to go over slot on Coby Mayo at #103 and Carter Baumler at #133. I did not like it then and I like it even less now.
I get you on the catchers. For me, I can’t look at Lackey and not see at least a little bit of Joey Bart and Kevin Parada, other recent Bench award winning 1st round guys out of Tech. Even though Lackey is clearly a very different prospect, I can’t help my skepticism of how a highly-touted catcher out of that program will translate to pro ball.
Your second paragraph is what I mean when I say the White Sox could be overthinking it.
But also, you see these sorts of stories all the time in all sports and I think some of it (not this article) isn’t even really real. It’s just talking heads needing a contrarian idea to draw attention. I saw it with the Bears and Caleb Williams as well as the Blackhawks with Connor Bedard. There were stories of “I’m hearing they might like so.eone else…” If a columnist or analyst says the obvious thing, nobody pays attention so they need a hot take.
Also, and this is exactly in contradiction to your post, I would also consider if Tyler Bell or Eric Booth would be willing to cut a deal that would allow me to scoop up a falling prep guy later. These guys are not far behind Cholowsky / Lackey / Emerson at all and this class is *deep*. I don’t mind the idea of cutting a deal up top, but I doubt Emerson would come with any real discount.
Most people have said the exact opposite. I’m with you on Bell and Booth (plus Flora) being relatively close to the top three, but I’m not confident about anyone after those six. This class is short on high upside guys that I would want to go over slot for in the supplemental picks.
Maybe you wouldn’t need to go that far over slot for guys like Marchand or Comeau but I think they are phenomenal prospects. Maniscalso, Beau Peterson, and Jace Mataczynski too, a little lower down. And there seem to be a ton of HS prep guys who people love and most of them won’t go in the first round. I think there is space for them.
Sorry, ton of prep pitchers.
Take the best player*
*within your cap capacity
Man oh man. I would be THRILLED if Roch fell to the Twins.
Woo draft rankings and a mock! The draft rankings update is probably my favorite list update of the year
Lawrence and Grindlinger both have write ups that sound like latter fringe 1st rounders but that scouting numbers and ordinal numbers suggest better.
Burress’s write up and numbers look like a guy in that 6ish area. I understand the concerns with the size but if the guy has good raw power and bat control to be a big league average hitter, he will play even in the corners and if CF that is a very productive player.
Hacopian’s bat sounds interesting, but he seems position less. I have a hard time valuing guys unathletic guys who can’t play 2B and would maybe even be a quite bad at 1B. The bat if just by the grades justifies a top 10 pick though even if 1B/DH in the future. I would try him in LF first though to see he can at least make it out there in his team control years.
AJ Gracia if I think I am a competant team at development sounds like one of the top 10 prospects still to me. You would like to have seen more raw power this year. He already has a great hit tool with good swing decisions. With that frame and even just a chance of sticking in CF, I am getting my development staff to see what tweaks can be made to unleash more power that his frame should have in it. Gracia at least in the college group is the guy with the best chance of a few years down the line teams thinking wow we made a mistake not picking him.
I am really down on the college SP as a whole outside of Flora and Helfrick/Lombard/LeBron I am really down on as hit tools 30 and below just don’t cut it for me. Way too risky and even if there is ra power there it is hard to consistently tap into it when you can’t make contact consistently.
Some concerns that AJ Gracia is too passive. That’s better than swinging at everything but his swing decisions are more okay than elite. If you think he can play 50 defense in CF that could still potentially be a top 10 prospect but if you think he has to move to LF he is closer to the end of the first round as a prospect. Talented guy and it feels like if he could be a steal that late.
Grindlinger is 17 and super projectable and teams seem split on whether he will be a better hitter or pitcher. I have seen so many people confidently predict that he is definitely going to pitch or definitely going to hit. Likely means opinions on him are all over the place, I wouldn’t be surprised if a team had him as the #8 prospect or as the #28 prospect.
Thank you very much the insight, Eric!
Daniel Jackson is a fascinating prospect, tons of power, maybe isn’t a catcher in MLB but played there basically every day for the dawgs. If a team can get him to be an average or even slightly-below average catcher, could be a steal.
Strategy for the Braves here will be really interesting, can pounce on anybody that drops with #9 but also have the ROY pick to leverage later if they want to cut some deals.
I hope Drew stays in atl
This is almost certainly an unpopular opinion but I would take Burress 1-1 and use the extra 2 mill on hs hitters/pitchers. In fact in some way bumila fits well with how they’ve drafted. Burress belongs in tier 1, he’s 4th for me but right there. He has good hat speed, elite power that would be talked about different if he wasn’t so short. Carroll has him beat defensively/speed to be clear but i think from purely a hitters perspective Burress could be Carroll good
Burress does not have elite power; he has an elite feel for barreling. The very important distinction there is that barreling with BBCOR bats produces significantly higher (3-4 mph) exit velocities than you would get with a wood bat. The reality is that size matters when it comes to power. Height and weight correlate strongly with exit velocity, and Burress is closer in size to Altuve than Carroll. His listed height of 5’9″ is two inches more than it should be.
The barrel rate for Burress comes from his natural feel for hitting. I’m not a fan of long strides and flat bat paths, but Drew makes it work because he has excellent pitch recognition and bat control which allow him to adjust. He torches fastballs anywhere in the zone, but the long stride means that he won’t do as much damage against off-speed because he’s relying on the transfer to generate power.
If Burress was an elite athlete with the no doubt speed to play center then I wouldn’t worry about him being tiny, but I don’t think he is a centerfielder in the majors. That makes him more of a Benintendi than a Carroll.
The guy like Carroll is Eric Booth. He’s going to put huge pressure on defenses with his speed and has a lot of raw power lurking in there.
Burress gets the job done but he’s definitely in that massive forty player tier of 45 type prospects for me.
ETA for Mock Draft 2.0? I’ll be refreshing the site all day.