After Forcing Messick Into an Early Exit, Rays Take 3-2 ALCS Lead
The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from their third trip to the World Series. After pulling away from the Cleveland Guardians late in Game 4 for a 7-3 victory, the Rays scored a run in each of the first three innings of Game 5. While they left six men on base over that span, they forced Guardians ace Parker Messick to work so hard that he lasted just two innings, and because the game remained within reach, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt called upon four of his best relievers to record four outs or more. Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen stifled the Guardians, holding them to one run on four hits over seven innings, and a trio of relievers shut the door for a 3-1 victory and a three-games-to-two series lead. The series now heads back to St. Petersburg, and because the travel day was erased by Friday night’s rainout, the Rays will have the opportunity to clinch the pennant at home on Monday night.
For as great a rookie season as Messick had, the 25-year-old lefty has been anything but dominant during the postseason. He lasted five innings in just one of his three previous starts while putting up a 4.13 FIP and 5.25 xERA to go with a comparatively tidy 3.09 ERA in 11.2 innings. If a 15.1% walk rate, more than double his regular season mark of 6.6%, has been the primary culprit, his previous workload may be a contributing factor as well. Messick ranked fourth in the American League with 186.1 innings — the most of any rookie since 2012 — and with his postseason work prior to Sunday, he had pushed his odometer to 198 frames, up from a combined 138.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2025.
After pairing Messick with backup catcher Austin Hedges for all but one of his starts in 2026 — David Fry caught the first three innings of his September 27 outing — Vogt called upon Patrick Bailey instead… on the basis of his offense. That’s an odd thing to say about a catcher with a career 75 wRC+, and an anemic .146/.213/.183 line when he was traded from the Giants in May, but the 27-year-old backstop has been a credible threat at the plate since joining the Guardians, and he entered Sunday having hit .333/.379/.556 (163 wRC+) during the postseason, with a homer and a single off Rasmussen in Game 1. Said Vogt before the game, “With the way Patty is swinging the bat, [I] just wanted to keep his bat in the lineup, and you know, obviously there is some risk. There’s some concern with Patty never having caught Parker. But you know what? If I’m going to trust two human beings to go out and navigate a game, it’s Parker and Patty.”
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
In the 7th, manager Kevin Cash experienced a repeat of his Game 6 2020 Snell moment. It was the third time around in the lineup. His pitcher had been lights out, but he was no longer getting the swing-and-miss. The first batter, Lowe, singled. But this time, with a nearly equivalent pitch count, he stuck to his ace. There was no indication the velocity was down, and the opposition was the lower end of the 2026 CLE lineup, not Betts followed by Seager and Turner.
Turning to a different topic, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays used physics to choose starters for Games 4 and 5. The more prudent move would normally be to use Rasmussen in the delayed Game 4, Martinez or Peralta in Game 5, and the other in Game 6. However, by taking advantage of the very cold night air, the fly balls that CLE hit off Martinez that might have been home runs since he gives up more HR per PA than Rasmussen were caught. Today, we saw numerous balls hit in the warmer afternoon daylight fly further than some of the OFers expected.
I’m surprised to see DeLauter’s defensive value is only slightly below average for the regular season…he’s looked brutal out there in this series.
It could just be that Drew pitches better with 5 days rest
This reality, and the numbers support it, can be added to the equation. Oddly, he did not pitch well relative to his usual numbers in Game 1 of the series, even though he had plenty of rest.
My point is, the Rays are so nerdy, it wouldn’t surprise me if they include physics principles when evaluating the potential performance of a player.
They pretty much have to trust Bibbee and/or Cantillo in Game 6. Beating Peralta with that combination would be as uplifting as beating Rasmussen was in Game 1. Yes I know Drew wasn’t officially the losing pitcher
It’s nice to see a starter going more than 4 innings occasionally.
Rooting for the Rays but gotta give credit to Kwan, he’s having a hell of a postseason and made some great plays.
Both Kwan and Chandler Simpson have been impressive getting on base, and Kwan certainly shined in the field yesterday although I thought he could have had a better throw to try and get Williamson at the plate in the 2nd.
He hasn’t done much at the plate this series, but it’s a joy to see Mesa Jr. out there, what a stud.
Given how precious runs are, sending Walls, one of the faster Rays baserunners, to the plate with one out on a single to Kwan was the correct move. Kwan fielded and threw the ball beautifully to nail Walls. As a Rays fan, I have to say to Kwan, chapeau.
Nice coming out party for Rasmussen. I had not realized how consistently good he has been the last few years, but, his playoff run has been enlightening.
Since integration (1947) & pitchers with 500 innings, he has the 22nd best ERA & 6th best among starters behind only Kershaw, DeGrom, Whitey Ford, Koufax & Ohtani.
Granted, he’s only at 111 starts & a little over 600 innings, but, he’s been putting up good #’s for 4-5 years now (around the obligatory 2020’s 2 year period in 2023-24 where he only pitched 72 innings)
He had his 3rd major elbow surgery (internal brace) in July 2023.
Besides his rookie year, his highest ERA ever over any sample size for a season is 2.84
His injury history is absolutely crazy. He already had one TJ surgery when he was drafted by the Rays in the first round and then he failed his physical and he needed a second TJ. The Brewers drafted him in the 6th round and he looked like a potential closer candidate due to the stuff and injury history. The Rays traded for him and immediately converted him into a pitch to contact starter, because the Rays just assume they’re going to break their starters anyway. That worked brilliantly for one year, then he spent two years basically injured (including a third elbow surgery) and serving a PED suspension. And then it’s worked brilliantly again for for two more years.
He’s been great but you kind of have to assume he’s going to break tomorrow, and the PED suspension is another source of risk. If someone is willing to trade an FV50 prospect for him in the offseason I doubt he is going to be with the Rays next year, much like with Glasnow and Pepiot. But I am not sure someone will do it.
What on earth are you talking about, Ras never got suspended for PEDs, you are either misremembering or got tricked.
Apparently, MLB on “Fax” has been posting this everywhere as a “parody.” Not sure how it’s a parody or funny, but it’s now in the zeitgeist.
Boy howdy do I love being on the internet in 2026
Oh dear, that is not good.
I guess ignore that part.
Messick is gassed. Including the post season, he’s thrown 200 innings this year. Last year he threw 139 total.
He’s a significant reason why Cleveland is in the playoffs at all, but that kind of workload jump will take its toll.
Absolutely. Having Bailey behind the plate had nothing to do with the drop in velocity and the number of pitches Messick missed outside. He is completely knackered, as are most of their young pitching staff. Out of the 17 players the Guards carry that are not yet eligible for arbitration (more than any other playoff team, and tied with the White Sox, who were showing similar exhaustion), eleven or twelve are starters, everyday players, or key bullpen arms.
They are just ahead of schedule and are playing with house money. I gotta remind myself of this.
“He is completely knackered, as are most of their young pitching staff.”
Outside of Messick, not sure I agree. As a team they’re giving up 3.6 runs per game with a 2.86 ERA. And the bullpen pitchers who are struggling aren’t that good in the first place – Herrin, Festa, Cecconi.
The issue is the lack of hitting more than anything. They’ve averaged 2.0 runs per game across games 2-5.