Dave Dombrowski has had a highly successful career as a top-level front-office executive. Now the President of Baseball Operations for the Philadelphia Phillies, the 67-year-old Western Michigan University graduate’s resume includes World Series titles with the Florida Marlins and the Boston Red Sox, while nine other teams he’s constructed have reached the postseason before falling short. His current club has played October baseball in each of the past two seasons.
As Detroit sports fans know all too well, five of Dombrowski’s not-quite campaigns came with the Tigers from 2006-2014. Moreover, the majority of those disappointments are notable for a particular reason: a lack of reliable back-end bullpen arms torpedoed multiple opportunities to take home a title.
(Tigers fans wanting to avoid angst might want to skip the next two paragraphs.)
In Game 4 of the 2006 World Series, Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya combined to allow three late-inning runs in a 5-4 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2011 the Tigers twice lost ALCS games in which the Texas Rangers scored four runs in the 11th inning, Two years later, five Detroit relievers combined to cough up a 5-1 eighth-inning lead in ALCS Game 2 against the Boston Red Sox, ruining a Max Scherzer start and depriving the Tabbies of what would have been a 2-0 series lead. That year’s Game 7 was even more painful. A 2-1 seventh-inning lead, this in another well-pitched Scherzer start, turned into a 5-2 loss when Jose Veras gave up a grand slam to Shane Victorino. Read the rest of this entry »
All things considered, James Paxton had a productive season. In 19 starts comprising 96 innings, the recently turned–35-year-old left-hander fanned 101 batters, allowed 93 hits and logged a 4.50 ERA and a 4.68 FIP. The erstwhile Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees rotation mainstay put up those numbers with the Boston Red Sox between May 12 and September 1, and he did so after throwing just 1.1 innings over the past two-plus seasons. “Big Maple” underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021, and he remained on the shelf the following year due to a lat tear incurred late in the rehab process. Factor in the truncated 2020 COVID campaign, and he’d tossed just 22.1 frames since September 2019.
Paxton, now a free agent, has been a quality pitcher when healthy. From 2017 to ’19, the hard-throwing Ladner, British Columbia native went 38–17 with a 3.54 ERA, a 3.26 FIP, and a 30.0% strikeout rate. His heater averaged 95.6 mph over that three-year span, just a few ticks over this year’s 95.3. As for next season, he expects not only to be throwing every bit as hard, but also to be close to his old self in terms of overall arsenal quality. He addressed that subject, as well as his experience returning to the mound in 2023, when I spoke to him at the end of September.
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David Laurila: You came back from Tommy John surgery. What has that experience been like in terms of your pitch quality?
James Paxton: “It’s definitely interesting coming back from it, the stuff differences [and] trying to figure out my arm again. I feel like the fastball came back, it felt really good, but the breaking stuff took some time. The cutter wasn’t the same pitch it was before Tommy John. I’m still kind of figuring that pitch out. I got to a place where it was good enough. I could use it, it just wasn’t the same as it was.”
Laurila: How has it been different?
Paxton: “I used to throw it harder. It was a shorter, harder slider, basically, and now it’s not quite as hard. I used to throw it 88–91 [mph] and now it’s like 85–87. It still has decent movement to it, but again, it’s just not quite the same pitch that it was before I got hurt. Maybe that’s something that will come back in year two. People say that your stuff isn’t really 100% back until the year after your first year back from Tommy John.” Read the rest of this entry »
My September 10 Sunday Notes column included Chris Antonetti addressing his team’s 2023 offensive struggles. According to Cleveland’s President of Baseball Operations, “The problem isn’t power, the problem is that we need to score more runs.” While I don’t necessarily disagree with the exec’s opinion, it is nonetheless true that the Guardians hit the fewest home runs of any team and finished fourth from the bottom in runs scored. Moreover, they finished 76-86 after going 92-70 in 2022.
I revisited the issue, at least in part, during this month’s GM meetings. I asked Antonetti’s second in command, Mike Chernoff, if the club needs to reassess some of its philosophies going forward.
“If you rewind the clock one year, we felt like we massively outperformed industry expectations,” Cleveland’s General Manager told me “We won 92 games with the youngest team in baseball. This year, we again had the youngest team in baseball. We hit a few unfortunate and untimely injuries with some of our starting pitching, but at the same time we transitioned three young starters in [Gavin] Williams, [Tanner] Bibee, and [Logan] Allen to the major-league team. We just didn’t perform as well offensively. So we don’t feel like wholesale changes are necessary. We feel like we have a really strong foundation off of which to continue building, but we also don’t have a lot of room for error as a small-market team.”
Industry expectations are one thing, in-house projection systems are another. With that in mind, I asked Chernoff if the 2022 Guardians outperformed their own projections, and if the 2023 club underperformed them. Read the rest of this entry »
Brooks Raley has been an effective reliever since returning to MLB in 2020 after five seasons as a starter with the KBO’s Lotte Giants. He’s been especially good for the past two. Taking the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021 and for the New York Mets this past season, the 35-year-old left-hander has logged a combined 2.74 ERA and a 3.21 FIP over 126 relief appearances. Moreover, he’s allowed just 81 hits and fanned 122 batters in 108.1 innings. Working primarily in a setup role, he’s been credited with a pair of wins and nine saves.
Raley is also a bona fide pitching nerd. That wasn’t the case when he got cups of coffee with the Chicago Cubs in 2012 and ’13, but then came a career-altering adoption of analytics when he was overseas. Looking to optimize his talents, the Texas A&M University product schooled himself on how his pitches played best, and what he could add, subtract or tweak in order to attack hitters more effectively. The result was a successful return to the big leagues, and not only has he put up a good FIP and a solid SIERA, but he also knows exactly what those acronyms mean.
Raley discussed his analytics-influenced evolution as a pitcher when the Mets visited Fenway Park this summer.
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David Laurila: You played five years in Korea. What was that experience like?
Brooks Raley: “I loved it. I learned a lot. We’re talking analytics, and I went over there not very polished. I was a starter but didn’t have a changeup or a cutter, so I started watching YouTube videos of all the different shapes, spin rates, tilts, extension — all that stuff. For a little bit, I tried to throw like Chris Sale. I kind of leaned over and tried to create some different angles and see what kind of shapes I could get. I really got into that side of the sport. I found my cutter, found my arm slot, and then the sinker got better. My slider also got better. That all happened when I was in Korea. It’s how I got back [to MLB].”
Laurila: Why hadn’t you gotten into analytics and begun making changes prior to going to the KBO?
Raley: “I wouldn’t change anything about my career, but coming across analytics and what defines your strengths better… when I was coming through the minors, it was ‘sinkers down and away are safe’ and ‘ground balls over strikeouts.’ But I actually and naturally pitch better inside. That’s to both sides. To righties, I throw the cutter and the slider and have the changeup and sinker to keep them honest. To lefties, I’ve got the running sinker. It’s been inconsistent this year, I can’t really figure that out, but it’s been between 14 to 19 horizontal and probably anywhere from eight to two vertical. It’s kind of a unique pitch because it spins 2,400 [RPMs] or so. It’s got some life and late dart to it.
“I always struggled with changeups before I went over there, because I’d always try to throw the 10 miles an hour off [from the fastball]. Now I throw a Viulcan change, so I don’t really kill spin but I put it on the horizontal axis. I get around 19 and I’m either on the line or under the line. Basically, I found some unique shapes to really broaden my left and right, because I can throw a slider at 22 inches of horizontal and a changeup at 20 [in the opposite direction].” Read the rest of this entry »
Reese Olson has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter in Detroit, and it is notable that the Tigers acquired him via trade. On July 30, 2021, then-general manager Al Avila dealt Daniel Norris to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for the now-24-year-old right-hander, who at the time had a 4.30 ERA in High-A and was flying below most prospect radar. Talented but raw, he ranked seventh in a system that wasn’t particularly well-regarded.
Olson made his MLB debut this past June, and by season’s end he was showing signs that he could emerge as a No. 1 or a No. 2.on a promising young staff. Over his last six starts, the plain-spoken Gainesville, Georgia native allowed just 18 hits and six earned runs in 35-and-two-thirds innings. On the year, he had a 3.99 ERA and a 4.01 FIP to go with a 24.4% strikeout rate and a .214 BAA. He fanned 102 batters in 103-and-two-thirds innings.
Scott Harris doesn’t believe in labels like No. 1 starter or No. 2 starter. He does believe in the fast-rising righty.
“Reese has three distinct secondary pitches that miss bats,” Detroit’s President of Baseball Operations told me at this week’s GM meetings. “That’s really hard to find. He also has two different fastballs that reach the upper 90s. I also think he did some things this summer that reminded me of what other really good pitchers do in their first year in the big leagues. I’m not going to throw those expectations on him, but his ceiling is as high as anyone’s.” Read the rest of this entry »
Cooper Hjerpe is catching up for lost time in the Arizona Fall League. St. Louis’ first-round pick (22nd overall) in 2022, the 22-year-old southpaw was out of action from late May to early September due to an elbow issue and ended up tossing just 41 innings. He was effective when healthy. Throwing from what my colleague Eric Longenhagen has called “a funky low-slot delivery,” Hjerpe fanned 51 batters, allowed 26 hits and posted a 3.51 ERA with High-A Peoria.
The Oregon State University product’s AFL stint with the Scottsdale Scorpions included a two-batter appearance in Sunday night’s Fall Stars game. Entering in the eighth inning, Hjerpe retired fellow former first-rounders Max Muncy and Jace Jung, the latter on a swinging strike. I caught up to the deceptive lefty after the game to ask about his pitch metrics and approach on the mound.
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David Laurila: We should start with a health update. What was the procedure you had this summer, and how is your elbow now?
Cooper Hjerpe: “I had what’s called arthroscopy surgery. A microscope went in there and took out bodies of cartilage. There were two pieces of cartilage at the front and the back of the elbow; they took them out and shaved what they came off of. It wasn’t like reconstruction surgery or anything like that. Everything is back to normal.”
Laurila: You throw from a low slot and approach angle, so I’m interested in what you can tell me about your pitch metrics.
Hjerpe: “The heater has changed a little bit. I don’t know if it’s the balls or what, but right now it has been like 10 vertical and 18 horizontal. The slider is anywhere from zero to negative-four vertical, with 14 to 16 HB [horizontal break]. The changeup is anywhere from positive-two to negative-three vertical, and negative-19 horizontal. The cutter, which I’m still working on, is 10 to 13 vert and around zero horizontal.” Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Rice led all New York Yankees minor leaguers with a 183 wRC+ this past season. Given the degree to which he’s flown under most prospect radar, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for you to read those words and ask, “Who the heck is Ben Rice?“
Here is a snapshot answer to that question:
A 24-year-old left-handed-hitting catcher, Rice grew up in Massachusetts and went on to attend Dartmouth College, from where the Yankees selected him in the 12th round of the 2021 draft. His first full professional season was solid but not especially notable; in 68 games with Low-A Tampa, he logged an .810 OPS and went deep nine times. This year was particularly notable. Playing at three levels — the majority of his games were at Double-A Somerset — he slashed .324/.434/.615 with 20 home runs in 332 plate appearances.
My own knowledge of Rice was admittedly next to nil prior to talking him in Portland, Maine in early September. Somerset broadcaster Steven Cusumano suggested Rice as a deserving interview subject, and as circumstances would have it, that conversation came moments later. Outside of having been told that the backstop had been tearing up the Eastern League — I later saw that his OPS was north of 1.000 — I basically went in blind.
I asked the erstwhile psychology major about his breakout. More specifically, why was he was enjoying such a boffo season with the bat? Read the rest of this entry »
Luke Little was an afterthought when our 2023 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects list came out in early July. Pitching for Double-A Tennessee at the time, the now–23-year-old southpaw garnered no more than an honorable mention on a list that ran 52 players deep. His stock has since risen markedly. By season’s end, he had earned a big league cup of coffee and thrown 6.2 scoreless innings over seven appearances. Featuring a high-octane heater and a sweeper delivered from a low arm slot, he fanned a dozen batters and allowed just five hits.
His numbers across three levels of the minor leagues were every bit as impressive. Over 36 appearances, all but four as a reliever, the 2020 fourth-round pick out of San Jacinto College had 105 strikeouts and surrendered 40 hits in 63.2 innings. He’s an imposing figure on the mound: The Charlotte, North Carolina native stands 6-foot-8 and weighs 270 pounds.
Little discussed his repertoire and delivery prior to a late-September game at Wrigley Field.
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David Laurila: Who are you on the mound? For instance, do you identify as a power pitcher?
Luke Little: “I like to think I’m a power pitcher. Obviously, I throw hard. At the same time, I like to think that I have good offspeed pitches. I’ve been really comfortable with my slider, and I’ve also got a good feel for my splitter now, although I haven’t thrown it too much.”
Laurila: How hard are you throwing?
Little: “Last night [September 19 against the Pirates], I sat 97 [mph] with my fastball, and my slider was 81–82. I was up to 99 with my fastball at the beginning of the year, [which is] the hardest I’ve ever thrown, when I was a starter [with High-A South Bend].” Read the rest of this entry »
Shintaro Fujinami has a good understanding of how NPB compares to MLB. Prior to signing with the Oakland Athletics in January (and subsequently being traded to the Baltimore Orioles in July), the 29-year-old right-hander spent 10 seasons with the Hanshin Tigers. Along the way he faced many of Japan’s top hitters, with Central League stalwarts such as Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto among the standouts. The latter was the first name Fujinami mentioned when I asked which of his former position-player opponents would best perform stateside.
“I think that Okamoto, the third baseman for the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants, would be pretty good here,” replied Fujinama, who went 7-8 with a 7.18 ERA over 79 relief innings in his first MLB season. “He’s a power hitter in Japan, although a power hitter there isn’t the same as here. Power hitters in Japan won’t hit 40 home runs over here like Shohei Ohtani does. But he would do well.”
A 27-year-old right-handed hitter, Okamoto slugged an NPB-best 41 home runs this year while slashing .278/.374/.585. He’s gone deep at least 30 times in each of the last six seasons, a span that includes a .274 batting average and 108 strikeouts annually. Despite the not-low K totals, Fujinami believes that Okamoto possesses the bat-to-ball skills to handle MLB pitching. Moreover, he doesn’t feel that high heaters would bedevil the Yomiuri slugger.
“He has good contact-ability, and he’s also good at hitting fastballs,” Fujinami told me during our September conversation. “The fastball velocity here is higher than it is in Japan, but I feel that Okamoto could make an adjustment to that if he came here. I think that Okamoto can hit a fastball at the top of the zone better than Murakami. If I had to pick one to bring here to the states, I would pick Okamoto.” Read the rest of this entry »
Nick Pivetta had an intriguing and largely successful season. A starter to begin the year, the veteran right-hander was shifted to Boston’s bullpen in mid-May, only to return to the rotation a few months later and finish strong. Save for a smattering of rocky outings — mostly in the early going — he was actually solid throughout. All told, the 30-year-old Victoria, British Columbia native logged a 4.04 ERA and a 3.98 FIP over 142-and-two-thirds innings, the second-highest innings mark on the club.
He was often overpowering. Opposing hitters had a .207 BA and a .221 xBA versus his array of offerings, while his 31.2% strikeout rate ranked in the 93rd percentile among big league hurlers per Baseball Savant. An in-season addition to the Red Sox righty’s repertoire was especially effective: Pivetta posted a 44.4% whiff rate and allowed just a .114 BA and a .127 xBA on his sweeper.
Pivetta, who ended up making 16 starts and 22 relief appearances on the season, discussed his 2023 performance on the final week of September.
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David Laurila: How would you assess your season as a whole?
Nick Pivetta: “I’d say it was good. I mean, I think I’ve handled the situation well. I’ve gone out and given my best effort — I’ve competed and put everything on the line for the organization — and that’s all I really focus on. I’m always making sure that I’m doing the best I can for the team.” Read the rest of this entry »
