Congratulations to Ryan Howard for winning the 2005 National League Rookie of the Year award! In his first full season he hit 22 home runs in only 348 plate appearances. There are only 25 other active players who hit 20 or more home runs in their rookie year.

Name			Season	AB	HR	SLG	ISO
Albert Pujols		2001	590	37	0.610	0.281
Ryan Howard		2005	312	22	0.567	0.279
Brian Daubach		1999	381	21	0.562	0.268
Jason Bay 		2004	411	26	0.550	0.268
Lance Berkman		2000	353	21	0.561	0.263
Jonny Gomes		2005	348	21	0.534	0.253
Tony Clark		1996	376	27	0.503	0.253
Mike Piazza		1993	547	35	0.561	0.243
N. Garciaparra 		1997	684	30	0.534	0.228
Paul Lo Duca		2001	460	25	0.543	0.224
Preston Wilson		1999	482	26	0.502	0.222
Mark Teixeira		2003	529	26	0.480	0.221
Carlos Delgado		1996	488	25	0.490	0.219
Todd Helton		1998	530	25	0.530	0.215
Juan Gonzalez		1991	545	27	0.479	0.215
Jody Gerut		2003	480	22	0.494	0.215
Nick Swisher		2005	462	21	0.446	0.210
Craig Monroe		2003	425	23	0.449	0.209
Brad Wilkerson		2002	507	20	0.469	0.203
Eric Hinske		2002	566	24	0.481	0.201
Bobby Crosby		2004	545	22	0.426	0.187
Scott Rolen		1997	561	21	0.469	0.185
Chipper Jones		1995	524	23	0.450	0.185
Verno Wells		2002	608	23	0.457	0.183
Carlos Beltran		1999	663	22	0.454	0.161
Travis Lee		1998	562	22	0.429	0.160

He's in pretty good company. Taking a look at the graph below, you can see his Isolated Power (ISO) increased steadily as the season went on.

Unfortunately, the increased power came at the price of his strikeout percentage which also increased steadily. He was one of the ten worst players in strikeout percentage.

There's no doubt that Ryan Howard has tremendous potential, especially looking at his power numbers. However, if he wants to hit for power and average, he must learn to pick his pitches better.

I know this guy who drafts Kip Wells every year in his fantasy league thinking that this will be the year he breaks out. I couldn't help but laugh when I saw he led the majors with 18 losses this year. This was partly due to his insanely low run support. It was the lowest in baseball for the past 4 years. Knowing that, the 18 losses don't entirely fall on Kip Wells' shoulders, but it's not like he pitched well either.

Over the past 4 years he has managed to increase his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) every single year. His BB/9 now sits at a horrible 4.8, the second worst of any starting pitcher. If you're going to lead the league in walks, you better have some serious strikeout potential.

Unfortunately, Kip Wells' career strikeout rate is rather average. He did show some potential in 2004 when he struck out a healthy 7.5 per 9 innings (K/9), but it's probably more realistic to expect a K/9 in the mid 6's. It's also worth mentioning that he used to be one of the top ground ball pitchers, but in the past two years he's only been slightly above average at inducing ground balls.

I doubt he can repeat his 18 loss season, but if he doesn't do something about his walk rate, he will most likely see an ERA over 5 again. If you're waiting for Kip Wells to break out in a big way, don't hold your breath.

After playing 15 years in Chicago, the White Sox bought out Frank Thomas's contract for 3.5 million dollars making him a free agent. The White Sox would have had to pay him 10 million dollars this season, which apparently they thought was a bit steep considering his recent injury history and age. He'll be 38 years old next season and he has only played in 108 games the past two years. What should teams looking to acquire Frank Thomas expect from him next season?

Despite his age, Frank Thomas remains a real home run threat. Taking a look at his Isolated Power (ISO), it looks as though he has just as much power as he ever has. While healthy last year, he actually had the most home runs per at bat of any player in baseball.

The power has come at a price though, as he struck out nearly 30% of the time. I somewhat attribute this to his limited playing time last season, but the worrisome trend is still there. Fortunately, his walk rate remains one of the best in the majors.

I think Frank Thomas be one of the bargain acquisitions this off season. Any team that is willing to take a chance on him should be greatly rewarded if he can remain healthy.

Yesterday the Nationals traded Vinny Castilla to the Padres and in return Brian Lawrence. Trading the 38 year old 3rd baseman to make way for Ryan Zimmerman was a good idea, but how excited should Nationals fans get about Brian Lawrence?

Taking a look at his Strikeout to Walk ratio (K/BB), he's been headed in the wrong direction his entire major league career. In recent years he has struck out around 5 batters per 9 innings; rather unspectacular. But one thing Brian Lawrence does have going for him is that over the past four years he's been one of the top ground ball pitchers in baseball.

Since he's only 29 years old, there's still time for him to have a breakout season. Even if he doesn't, the Nationals don't need to him to pitch like an ace, as he'll likely be pitching behind Livan Herandez and John Patterson in the rotation. All he needs to do is pitch 200 solid innings with an ERA around 4 for him to be a successful acquisition. You can pencil him down for that at the very least.

Matt Lawton tested positive for steroids today and will serve a 10 game suspension since it's his first offense. Let's see if the steroids worked.

The first thing that comes to mind with steroid users is power. Over the course of his 10 year career Matt Lawton has shown very average power. There's not a thing here that makes me want to yell steroids user. Perhaps if we look at his rolling game by game Isolated Power (ISO) we'll get see some substantial power spikes.

Nope, nothing really eye popping here. He showed some power towards the middle of the season this year, but I was hoping for something more visible, like Brady Anderson's out of the blue 50 home run season.

I think Matt Lawton used some defective steroids. He's been pretty consistent through out his major and minor league career so I doubt he's been a long term user. If he was tricked into taking steroids (like all steroid using baseball players are), then it's quite possible it was only for a short amount of time and had no major impact on his stats. Unlike the Rafael Palmeiro suspension, this story has no legs.

After the Padres' insulting 2 year, 10 million dollar offer to Trevor Hoffman, there's a possibility the two might finally be parting ways after 13 years. The question on everyone's mind is, if he leaves San Diego, will his new team play AC/DC's “Hells Bells” when he comes out to close? He better make arrangements for that in his new contract! Let's see why Trevor Hoffman thinks he deserves more than the Padres are offering.

Looking at a closers best friend, his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9), there has been some drop off in recent years, yet it still remains a strong 8.4. This should be perfectly adequate for him to continue closing at a high level as long as his walk rate remains low, which it has.

There is however one area I am slightly concerned about. As you can see from the graph above he's been pretty good at keeping the ball in the park, but for the last two years he has pitched in PETCO Park which is the most difficult park to hit home runs in. I can't help but feel that his home run total has been slightly suppressed, especially since he tends to be a fly ball pitcher.

When I saw Trevor Hoffman's blown save and loss in the 2005 opener, I was worried that it was the beginning of the end for him. Instead, he went on to compile 42 saves while only blowing an additional 2. I wouldn't bet against him in 2006.

The Mets decided not to take the 5.5 million dollar option on Braden Looper's contract yesterday meaning he will be a free agent. Smart move. Over the past three years, he has successfully converted 81% of his saves, the 2nd worst of any full time closer in baseball. Let's see if there's any hope of Braden Looper getting a closer job elsewhere.

Taking a look at his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9), it looked like he was headed towards elite levels in 2004. Then midway through that year it suddenly dropped and it has stayed there ever since. Overall his K/9 as a closer was 5.7. Some other closers who have a similar K/9 are Danny Kolb, Danny Graves, Dustin Hermanson, and Jose Mesa. Just like Braden Looper, none of them are still closers.

If you're wondering about his 2004 success, it was the result of a very low walk rate, and an extremely high ground ball rate. They both reverted towards his career averages in 2005 making him a very average reliever.

Braden Looper is not the answer to any team's closer problems, or setup man problems for that matter. Unfortunately, I'm betting some sucker of a team will sign him with those purposes in mind and probably won't be too pleased with the results.

Every team is looking for pitching and this winter quality pitchers are in short supply. Matt Morris is one of the few big name free agent pitchers on the market this off season and undoubtedly many teams will be interested in acquiring his services. Will teams get what they're looking for in Matt Morris?

As you can see his strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) have been down year over year for the past four years. He's managed to get away with this worrisome trend for two reasons:

The first reason is his walk rate, which he managed to get down to a career low 1.7 walks per 9 innings (BB/9). If you can't strike people out, at least make them work to get on base. The second reason is that he plays for the Cardinals. They gave him 4.48 runs on average each time he took the mound, the 8th most in baseball.

Teams considering Matt Morris should not expect him to revert to his 2001-2002 form, but rather they should think of Cory Lidle (they had remarkably similar stats) when signing him. Matt Morris will be a solid 3rd starter for most teams, but anything more should be considered a bonus.

Aaron Heilman has been mentioned recently in many trade rumors, all involving big name players such as Manny Ramirez and Barry Zito. Lets take a look at why he's such a hot commodity on the trade market.

Looking at his rolling ERA, you can see he basically gave up nothing towards the end of the season. Since being moved to the bullpen he gave up 16 runs in 70 innings of work, an ERA of 2.91. In the last two months of the season he gave up a mere 2 runs in 33 plus innings of work. This was good enough for him to split the closers job in the final weeks of the season where he went 4 for 4 in save chances.

His strikeouts per nine inning (K/9) have been on the rise since he was moved to the bullpen. As a reliever his K/9 sits at an elite 9.8 compared to 7.2 as a starter.

He's even managed to decrease his walks per 9 innings every year he's been in the majors. There's still room for improvement, but if he continues to strike out batters at his current rate, he can probably live with an average walk rate. Francisco Cordero, the Ranger's closer, finds success with a similar strikeout rate and a much higher walk rate.

To add to the good news, he's also a ground ball pitcher! What's not to like about him? It's quite clear that Aaron Heilman has tremendous upside as a reliever, and maybe even as a starter. As you can see there's a reason why so many teams are interested in him and it will take a big name player for the Mets to move him.

Did you know Kevin Millwood holds one of the more annoying records among active players? He has the least amount of wins per start of any pitcher with an ERA under 3 in a single season. It's fun to invent records! The reason for this lack of wins is that the Indians gave him only 85 runs to work with, a mere 2.8 per start. The only pitcher to have less run support than him and have a winning record in 2005 was Roger Clemens, and he needed a sub 2 ERA to do it. So now that Kevin Millwood has filed for free agency, is it realistic for teams to expect another sub 3 ERA from him?

There were three places he made improvements this year, the first being his walk rate. This was slightly offset by a drop in his strikeout rate, but overall his strikeout to walk ratio was up on the year, but not by much. So why such a big difference in his ERA from 2004 to 2005?

His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was dubiously high in 2004. As you can see it has dropped back down to a more normal level this year. There was also a slight rise in his percent of ground balls induced, but it's not such a large rise that it alone could be the cause for his good season.

Despite the improvements in walks, ground balls, and BABIP, I think it would be difficult for him to repeat his 2005 season. However, I do think that he'll be able to keep his ERA well below 4, and chances are he'll have better run support which will mean more wins. Kevin Millwood may not quite be the pitcher teams are looking for as an ace, but he's more than capable of being any team's second starter.