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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: Mock Draft and El Tablero

2:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, linkage: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s today’s mock draft which dumps our current intel.

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s our updated draft board: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: And here are details on the giant board of every minor leaguer we ranked on a list, even if we haven’t posted the full reports ont he site yet: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/introducing-the-board/

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Forgive me if I cut today’s chat short. Yesterday was not a good one in the Galmenhagen house as my wife’s cat of ten years, who has been hospitalized this week, took a turn for the worse. On my wife’s birthday. Yeah. Anyway…

2:03
Billy Beane: Are there any organizations you have a hard time scouting just because of location?

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Top 34 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Rays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Willy Adames 22 AAA SS 2018 60
2 Brent Honeywell 22 AAA RHP 2018 60
3 Brendan McKay 22 A LHP/1B 2019 60
4 Jake Bauers 22 AAA RF 2018 50
5 Jesus Sanchez 20 A+ RF 2020 50
6 Wander Franco 17 R SS 2022 50
7 Anthony Banda 24 MLB LHP 2018 50
8 Christian Arroyo 22 MLB 3B 2018 50
9 Nick Solak 23 AA 2B 2020 45
10 Josh Lowe 20 A+ CF 2021 45
11 Joe McCarthy 24 AAA OF 2018 45
12 Vidal Brujan 20 A 2B 2021 45
13 Resly Linares 20 A LHP 2020 45
14 Tobias Myers 19 A RHP 2021 45
15 Lucius Fox 20 A+ SS 2021 45
16 Brandon Lowe 23 AA 2B 2019 45
17 Justin Williams 22 AAA OF 2018 45
18 Ronaldo Hernandez 20 A C 2022 45
19 Garrett Whitley 21 A OF 2021 45
20 Jose DeLeon 25 MLB RHP 2018 45
21 Diego Castillo 24 R RHP 2018 40
22 Yonny Chirinos 24 MLB RHP 2018 40
23 Michael Mercado 18 R RHP 2022 40
24 Austin Franklin 20 A RHP 2021 40
25 Nick Ciuffo 23 AA C 2019 40
26 Ryne Stanek 25 MLB RHP 2018 40
27 Genesis Cabrera 21 AA LHP 2019 40
28 Jermaine Palacios 21 AA SS 2020 40
29 Chih-Wei Hu 23 MLB RHP 2018 40
30 Curtis Taylor 22 A+ RHP 2021 40
31 Orlando Romero 21 A RHP 2022 40
32 Jaime Schultz 26 AAA RHP 2018 40
33 Deivy Mendez 22 A+ RHP 2021 40
34 Ian Gibaut 24 AAA RHP 2019 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 6’0 Weight 200 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 55/55 45/55 45/40 45/50 60/60

He doesn’t have jaw-dropping physical tools, but Adames has a well-rounded offensive skillset, has produced a long track record of above-average offensive performances at levels for which he’s been young, and plays a competent shortstop. Adames’s frame is maxed out and he’s not likely to grow into much more power without better incorporating his lower half into his swing, but he’ll hit plenty of doubles and reach base at an above-average clip. Even with Tim Beckham’s departure, the shortstop picture in St. Petersburg is crowded by Christian Arroyo, Matt Duffy, Adeiny Hechavarria, Daniel Robertson, and, some would say, Joe Wendle. It’s worth noting that Adames got his first in-game reps at second base last year. He’ll likely debut in 2018, and his bat will have big impact at second base or shortstop.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Walters St CC
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Splitter Cutter Command
60/60 50/55 60/65 55/55 45/50 50/55

Honeywell’s kitchen-sink repertoire is headlined by a potential plus-plus changeup, but he also has a quality curveball, cutter, and mid-90s fastball. He can throw just about any pitch in any count and has at least average command right now despite some mechanical inconsistency. He had a 172:35 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Triple-A last year and probably deserved to be in the majors. He would have gotten there this year if not for blowing out his elbow early in the spring. He profiles as a No. 3 starter and should reach the majors next year, assuming his stuff returns after surgery.

3. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Louisville
Age 21 Height 6’2 Weight 212 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
25/55 65/65 35/55 35/30 45/50 60/60 50/55 55/60 50/55 40/50

McKay is an incredibly rare prospect in that he would make our top-100 list as both a hitter and pitcher and was a top-10 prospect in the 2017 draft both ways, as well. He’s stood out both ways since high school. Scouts also laud his makeup, nor is it difficult to see why. He improved as both a hitter and pitcher at Louisville while also serving as a team leader and managing the fatigue and preparation necessary to be the staff ace once a week while hitting in the middle of the lineup everyday for three straight years.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/12

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from lovely Tempe and welcome to the new chat day. Let’s begin.

2:03
ChiSox2020: Thoughts on Dane Dunning?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s going to be a league-average starter.

2:04
Bubbles Depot: I know it is incredibly early but is Juan Soto poised to be the Ronald Acuña of this year?

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think the tools are on that level but could see him being a low-variance 60 by the end of the year like Kyle Tucker became last year.

2:05
Joe: Thoughts on Malique Ziegler? He’s had a good start to the season

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Top 20 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Baltimore Orioles. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Orioles Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Austin Hays 22 MLB RF 2018 50
2 Chance Sisco 22 MLB C 2018 50
3 Hunter Harvey 22 A RHP 2018 45
4 D.L. Hall 19 R LHP 2020 45
5 Tanner Scott 22 MLB LHP 2018 45
6 Cedric Mullins 23 AA CF 2019 45
7 Ryan Mountcastle 21 AA LF 2019 45
8 Cody Sedlock 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
9 Matthias Dietz 22 A RHP 2020 40
10 Zac Lowther 21 A- LHP 2019 40
11 Brenan Hanifee 19 A- RHP 2021 40
12 Anthony Santander 23 MLB 1B/OF 2018 40
13 Chris Lee 25 AAA LHP 2018 40
14 Luis Gonzalez 26 AA LHP 2018 40
15 Lamar Sparks 19 R CF 2022 40
16 D.J. Stewart 24 AA LF 2019 40
17 Gray Fenter 22 A- RHP 2021 40
18 Mike Baumann 22 A RHP 2021 40
19 Keegan Akin 22 A+ LHP 2020 40
20 Jomar Reyes 21 A+ 3B 2020 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Jacksonville
Age 22 Height 6’0 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 60/60 45/50 50/50 50/50 60/60

Hays had a spectacular 2017 breakout campaign, hitting 32 homers and 32 doubles between High- and Double-A, prompting Baltimore to give him a look in the majors in September. His hands are electric and they allow Hays to turn on just about everything — which is what he tries to do and which is what prompted big-league pitchers to work him down and away last year. It may take an adjustment for Hays to max out his offensive potential, as his overly aggressive approach may be exploited in the majors. That said, he has bat speed and power, and should play an above-average right field fairly soon.

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Top 19 Prospects: Boston Red Sox

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Boston Red Sox. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

We’d also like to extend our condolences to the friends and family of the late Daniel Flores, as well as the Red Sox international scouting department. We were excited to watch Daniel play baseball and can’t imagine what those who anticipated watching him grow up have dealt with since his untimely passing.

Red Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Michael Chavis 22 AA 1B 2018 50
2 Jay Groome 19 A LHP 2021 50
3 Tanner Houck 21 A- RHP 2019 45
4 Sam Travis 24 MLB 1B 2018 45
5 Bryan Mata 18 A RHP 2021 45
6 Jalen Beeks 24 AAA LHP 2018 45
7 Darwinzon Hernandez 21 A LHP 2021 45
8 Danny Diaz 17 R 3B 2022 40
9 Mike Shawaryn 23 A+ RHP 2019 40
10 Cole Brannen 19 A- OF 2022 40
11 Bobby Dalbec 22 A 3B 2021 40
12 Josh Ockimey 22 AA 1B 2020 40
13 C.J. Chatham 23 A SS 2020 40
14 Ty Buttrey 25 AAA RHP 2018 40
15 Alex Scherff 20 R RHP 2022 40
16 Tzu-Wei Lin 24 MLB UTIL 2018 40
17 Joan Martinez 21 R RHP 2021 40
18 Roniel Raudes 20 A+ RHP 2020 40
19 Bobby Poyner 25 MLB LHP 2018 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Sprayberry HS (GA)
Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 210 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/65 50/60 40/40 40/45 55/55

If you were to look just at Chavis’s 2016 stats and with the knowledge that he was only a viable defensive fit at first base, you’d call him a non-prospect. This dip in production was brought about by a broken finger, and in 2017, Chavis was back to taking monster hacks that produce comfortably plus raw power. He’s going to strike out, and he isn’t especially patient, but he has a good chance to get to most of that power and do enough damage to profile at first base. Chavis has the arm for third base but lacks the horizontal mobility to profile there in a vacuum. Boston has shown a willingness to put up with less lateral range on their infield, but a left side of the infield which features Chavis and Xander Bogaerts together is probably too heavy-footed for comfort, even with proactive defensive positioning. Chavis projects to first base and has dealt with an oblique injury this spring.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/3

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi, everyone. Sorry I’m a few ticks late.

12:05
joe: What’s Vogelbach’s ultimate ceiling if his swing changes actually help?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on, looking to see exactly what he’s changed

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: My main issue has been: He doesn’t hunt pitches he can drive. If he starts doing that, sure, that’ll be better

12:07
Tacoby Bellsbury: Nice FG article on Jordan Hicks today. Does he have a future in the rotation, or is high-end bullpen role his destiny at this point?

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Top 18 Prospects: New York Mets

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Mets. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Mets Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 David Peterson 22 R LHP 2019 50
2 Andres Gimenez 19 A SS 2020 45
3 Tomas Nido 23 AA C 2018 45
4 Ronny Mauricio 16 R SS 2023 45
5 Justin Dunn 22 A+ RHP 2019 45
6 Mark Vientos 18 R 3B 2022 45
7 Peter Alonso 22 AA 1B 2019 45
8 Desmond Lindsay 21 A OF 2020 45
9 Luis Guillorme 23 AA UTIL 2018 45
10 Thomas Szapucki 21 A LHP 2021 40
11 Chris Flexen 23 MLB RHP 2018 40
12 Marcos Molina 23 R RHP 2018 40
13 Tony Dibrell 22 A- RHP 2020 40
14 Anthony Kay 23 R LHP 2021 40
15 Gerson Bautista 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
16 Adrian Hernandez 17 R OF 2022 40
17 Gavin Cecchini 24 MLB 2B 2018 40
18 Jamie Callahan 23 MLB RHP 2018 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Oregon
Age 22 Height 6’6 Weight 240 Bat/Throw L/L
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
55/55 50/55 40/45 50/55 45/55

Peterson had a great junior year at Oregon in 2017, showing four good pitches and throwing more strikes than is typical for a pitcher his size. He sits 90-92 with heavy sink, will touch 95, and his fastball plays up because of good extension. He made heavy use of a slider that garners mixed reviews depending on if you’re talking to a scout (who consider it a 50/55) or someone looking at a Trackman readout (40/45), but it missed Pac-12 bats and should be fine even if it doesn’t spin a whole lot.

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Top 26 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Philadelphia Phillies. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Phillies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Sixto Sanchez 19 A+ RHP 2020 60
2 Scott Kingery 23 AAA 2B 2018 55
3 J.P. Crawford 23 MLB SS 2018 55
4 Adonis Medina 21 A RHP 2020 50
5 Franklyn Kilome 22 AA RHP 2019 50
6 Mickey Moniak 19 A OF 2021 45
7 Adam Haseley 21 A CF 2020 45
8 Jorge Alfaro 24 MLB C 2018 45
9 Jhailyn Ortiz 19 A- 1B 2021 45
10 JoJo Romero 21 A+ LHP 2019 45
11 Seranthony Dominguez 23 A+ RHP 2018 45
12 Enyel De Los Santos 22 AA RHP 2019 45
13 Daniel Brito 20 A 2B 2020 40
14 Arquimedes Gamboa 20 A SS 2021 40
15 Luis Garcia 17 R INF 2023 40
16 Roman Quinn 24 MLB CF 2018 40
17 Kevin Gowdy 20 R RHP 2020 40
18 Spencer Howard 21 A- RHP 2020 40
19 Francisco Morales 18 R RHP 2022 40
20 Jose Taveras 24 R RHP 2018 40
21 Thomas Eshelman 23 AAA RHP 2018 40
22 Ranger Suarez 22 A+ LHP 2020 40
23 Dylan Cozens 23 AAA OF 2018 40
24 Cole Irvin 24 AA LHP 2019 40
25 Jake Holmes 19 R SS 2022 40
26 Jose Gomez 21 R UTIL 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic
Age 18 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
70/70 45/50 50/55 55/65 45/55

Hitters like to shorten up against Sixto after he’s blown well-placed, sinking, upper-90s gas past them for strikes one and two, which leaves them vulnerable to any of his three viable secondary offerings later in at-bats. Sanchez sits 95-99, has touched 102, and possesses advanced command. He has a long, cutting slider in the mid-80s and a two-plane curveball, both of which flash above-average, but his best secondary is a ghosting, mid-80s changeup which embarrassed hitters five years older than him at Hi-A last year.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 3/27

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone. Sorry I’m a few minutes late, was having HTML issues with the Phillies list. Let’s get right to it…

12:03
Jed: What have you heard from Hunter Greene this spring? Has he started throwing? Was a bit of a mixed back last summer.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Upper-90s, better breaking ball than last year.

12:03
Don: Is Joey Lucchesi a viable option in San Diego this year?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

12:04
Tommy N.: What distinguishes Kingery from Urias and Hiura and who do you personally prefer between the three?

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Top 18 Prospects: Washington Nationals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Washington Nationals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

A’s Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Victor Robles 20 MLB CF 2018 65
2 Carter Kieboom 20 A 3B 2021 55
3 Juan Soto 19 R OF 2020 50
4 Erick Fedde 25 R RHP 2018 45
5 Seth Romero 21 A- LHP 2019 45
6 Wil Crowe 23 A- RHP 2020 45
7 Blake Perkins 21 A CF 2020 40
8 Yasel Antuna 18 R SS 2021 40
9 Daniel Johnson 22 A+ OF 2020 40
10 Kelvin Gutierrez 23 A+ 3B 2019 40
11 Andrew Stevenson 23 R OF 2018 40
12 Luis Garcia 17 R SS 2022 40
13 Austin Adams 26 MLB RHP 2018 40
14 Brigham Hill 22 A RHP 2020 40
15 Anderson Franco 20 A 3B 2020 40
16 Rafael Bautista 25 R OF 2018 40
17 Jose Marmolejos 24 AA 1B 2018 40
18 Osvaldo Abreu 23 AA UTIL 2019 40

65 FV Prospects

Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/70 40/50 35/45 70/70 60/70 70/70

He’s barely played a month above A-ball, but Robles looked ready for the big leagues in 2017 and got a brief cup of coffee before finishing his season in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a polished, instinctive player capable of making an impact in every facet of baseball. Robles has great feel for all-fields contact and sneaky power for his size, which manifests itself in doubles and triples. He’s also a potential Gold Glove center fielder with breathtaking range and arm strength, and he was easily the best baserunner in the AFL, which features a pretty advanced group of prospects.

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