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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/6

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from, pretty sure it’s Tempe? Yes, it must be.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Mock draft went live yesterday, it’s here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-mock-draft/

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s daily notes have a few more rumors. I’ll link that here when it goes live.

12:02
Hobbs: At this point are you moving Acuna up? Rather have him or Eloy Jimenez longterm in real life and fantasy (if you answer fantasy questions)? Thanks.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d give it another month. Probably have those two on equal footing at this point. Easier to see elite power from Eloy, Acuna has a better defensive home, might steal you 15-20 bags.

12:03
Estuve : How much cheaper would Gore have to be than Greene for you to draft him if you were in charge of a team with a top pick (let’s say the Reds)?

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FanGraphs’ 2017 Mock Draft

What follows is my best guess for the first round of the 2017 amateur draft. I’ll update it the day of the draft itself (June 12), perhaps several times. Players have been assigned to teams based on multiple factors: rumors I’ve heard from various industry sources, the presence of front-office members at certain games (especially lately), each club’s own particular modus operandi, etc. Be sure to check out our draft rankings here.

1. Minnesota – Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
It sounds like Louisville LHP/1B Brendan McKay is also under heavy consideration here and that Minnesota would evaluate him both ways in pro ball for a while. Hunter Greene and MacKenzie Gore are dark horses but less likely than the Wright or McKay.

2. Cincinnati – Hunter Greene, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)
The Reds had about a half-dozen scouts at the ACC tournament in Louisville and watched Brendan McKay’s middling start, though I think they prefer him as a bat. He’s a possibility, but Greene is more likely and, in my opinion, the better prospect.

3. San Diego – MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville HS (NC)
I think the Padres would take Greene if he were available here and would be fine with JSerra shortstop Royce Lewis, too, but Padres decision makers have seen some of Gore’s best starts all year.

4. Tampa Bay – Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Lousiville
I think this is where McKay stops and that the Rays take him as a bat. If McKay goes at No. 1, I think Wright goes here, though the Rays had multiple high-level executives at MacKenzie Gore’s last start, too.

5. Atlanta – Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra HS (CA)
There have been a lot of crazy rumors about the Braves and they can’t all possibly be true, but of course the Braves haven’t been afraid to do things differently in order to maximize the overall talent they get in a single class before. As such, we have to at least consider the possibility they might get creative here. I think they’d like McKay or Gore and there’s a chance they cut an underslot deal (it would have to be at a huge discount and would still be risky), but Lewis is the best player on the board in this scenario.


Royce Lewis: going to Atlanta? (Photo: Bill Mitchell)

6. Oakland – Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson HS (NC)
Beck had a private workout in Oakland over the weekend and has the kind of tools the A’s can’t buy on the open market.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/30

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from Catasauqua, PA. Here is a link to today’s notes with notes from my look at Brendan McKay and more: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

12:02

Ira: Can we expect a write up on Luis Robert? What’s your scouting report on him?

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Once he starts playing actual games, sure. I wrote him up last summer when I saw him and in the hardball times annual over the winter. He’s a very good prospect, fits somewhere in the middle of a top 100 based on what I’ve seen an the reports I’ve gotten.

12:03

J: Most upside in this year’s draft? Highest floor?

12:04

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously this question requires certain assumptions, including me assuming you know those assumptions. But with that in mind: Greene has the most upside, McKay has the highest floor.

12:04

Greg: Any new draft buzz in the top 5?

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The 2017 Draft Sortable Board and Thoughts on the Class

Intro
We’re cutting the ribbon on the 2017 MLB Draft Sortable Board. The board will evolve and expand as we approach the draft, and Future Value grades will be added as the cement dries on player evaluations. For info on the 20-80 scale, by which the players are evaluated and, ultimately, the board is governed, bang it here. For info on Future Value, it’s strengths and flaws as a shorthand measurement, read this.

Thoughts on the Class Quality
The 2017 class is about average on overall talent and perhaps a bit below average as far as depth is concerned. The strength atop the class, despite Florida RHP Alex Faedo’s slightly diluted stuff, remains the terrific group of college pitchers who all have a chance to go in the top half of the first round. Faedo, Oregon LHP David Peterson, Louisville LHP Brendan McKay, Vanderbilt RHP Kyle Wright, and North Carolina RHP J.B. Bukauskas are all fairly easy to project as starters and have a chance to make up 33% of the top 15 picks. UCLA righty Griffin Canning also has consensus starter projection but lacks the stuff of those ahead of him and has been used heavily, at times throwing 120-140 pitches in a single start.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Room and Board

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/15

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning. Link:

1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: And chat…

1:31
Buck: Small sample size for sure. But is there anything I can take from Acuna’s hot start in Double A?

1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: No, especially not since last week’s chat was made up of an overwhelming number of back seat Player Dev coordinators criticizing his promotion.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/9

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from an anomalously cool Tempe.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s chat will be held tight to an hour as I’ve got some games to hit today.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Begin!

12:03
Jack: Is Jake Gatewood’s power here to stay now? 2015-16 were rough but seems to have tapped into that frame so far this season

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: The power hes always been there and totally undermined by swing and miss issues.

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s strijing out a lot this year, walk rate has gone from 3% to 14% which is too big of an uptick to be entirely real.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/2

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from Tempe.

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Here are this morning’s daily notes: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-52/

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get right to it.

1:03
Ron: Albies has 80 games at Triple A with a wRC+ of 85 and OBP below .300. When are we allowed to start being concerned?

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s the age of a college sophomore and was hitting .290 before the weekend started. He’s fine.

1:04
Tommy N.: Do you have any thoughts on Joey Lucchesi? Could he be a fast riser considering his age?

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Top 24 Prospects: Oakland Athletics

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Oakland Athletics farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
AL West (HOU, LAA, SEA, TEX)

As Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Franklin Barreto 21 AAA SS 2017 55
2 A.J. Puk 21 A+ LHP 2019 55
3 Jharel Cotton 25 MLB RHP 2017 55
4 Matt Chapman 23 AAA 3B 2017 50
5 Frankie Montas 24 MLB RHP 2017 50
6 Daulton Jefferies 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
7 Daniel Gossett 24 AAA RHP 2017 45
8 Heath Fillmyer 22 AA RHP 2018 45
9 Grant Holmes 21 AA RHP 2019 45
10 Chad Pinder 25 MLB UTIL 2017 45
11 Logan Shore 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
12 Dakota Chalmers 20 A RHP 2020 40
13 Norge Ruiz 23 R RHP 2018 40
14 Yerdel Vargas 17 R SS 2021 40
15 Jaycob Brugman 25 AAA OF 201 40
16 Yairo Munoz 22 AA 3B 2018 40
17 Richie Martin 22 AA SS 2020 40
18 Bruce Maxwell 26 MLB C 2017 40
19 Matt Olson 23 MLB 1B/OF 2017 40
20 Sean Murphy 22 R C 2019 40
21 Lazaro Armenteros 17 R LF 2021 40
22 Max Schrock 22 AA 2B 2019 40
23 Sylar Szynski 19 R RHP 2021 40
24 Bobby Wahl 25 AAA RHP 2017 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Venezuela
Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/55 40/45 60/60 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded .295 career batting average.

Scouting Report
Barreto was signed by Toronto for $1.45 million back in 2012 and then traded to Oakland — along with Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie, and Sean Nolin — in exchange for Josh Donaldson. Bay Area sports talk radio still discusses the deal with frequency and bile, and largely considers Barreto the last hope for salvaging it, though Graveman and his sinker appear to be breaking out this year.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, April Finale

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Is this thing on?

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Indeed.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Now we chat.

12:01
Nomar Picnics: WHAT TO DO WITH GARRETT. Please advise. Yours, in a panic.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Amir? He’s fine. That HR rate isn’t going to be that high forever.

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