Eric Longenhagen Spooky Prospects Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, folks. Lots to squeeze in on my end today (I think I get Taylor Hearn and Tyler Beede in Scottsdale today) so we’ll probably hold tight to an hour. Let’s begin

Philip: Do you prefer austin Allen to Josh Naylor?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope

Evan Longoria : Do you know much about Ronaldo Hernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Strong 19-year old Colombian catcher in Tampa’s system. Has power, catching is a work-in-progress but that’s fine because he’s a converted infielder. He made Rays list last offseason.

Chris: How good will Florial, Abreu, and Estrada be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Abreu has been 94-97 with a plus changeup and at least average curveball. He doesn’t repeat and his command is poor, so there’s a chance he’s a reliever. But he has huge stuff, arguably the bets here. Estrada is a fine defensive shortstop with enough stick that I think he could be somebody’s second division regular there. Florial is very talented but has swing path and patience issues that compound to form an unstable strikeout-prone offensive profile

Sharp: Is there value in developing high drafted pitchers as clutch relievers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not if they can start, but better to develop a reliever than a guy who isn’t a big leaguer at all. I wouldn’t draft a guy in the top 15-20 picks if I  thought he were a reliever.

Will Smith: Who has impressed you more this AFL so far, Fried or Sheffield, or both? Who has the higher ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sheffield. 92-96 with a plus slider and an idea of how to use it vs lefties and righties. Changeup is also effective as a way of generating weak contact. He looks great.

Dookie Howser, MD: Better looking mammal baby: Human vs. Great Panda

Eric A Longenhagen: This isn’t even close enough to dignify an answer

Prospect hipster: Has Alzolay done enough to jump into your top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. 93-95 with a plus slider.

Prospect hipster: Does Bote have a future as a big league utility guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure about that. I’d like my utility guy to be able to play multiple positions, Bote really isn’t good anywhere. He has power, though.

JR: Is it easier to scout pitchers or hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pitchers came first for me. You get so many reps, one right after the other.

The Dweez: I gotta say I love your prospect coverage btw.  Have you seen any of Wladamir Galindo, if so any ideas of grades for the hit/power tools?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Has had issues with injury and strikeouts but has big raw power, he made more contact this year and looked better at third base than he did in 2016.

Mac: How were the AFL all-stars selected because of the SSS involved? Also, quickly looking at some of their stats it seems like some made it that haven’t done particularly well in that span (for example Sandy Alcantara and Argenis Angulo). Is it based on full-season results, higher touted prospects? I know in the grand scheme of things that this selection means next to nothing if not literally nothing, but I was curious about this.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure how they’re picked. I assume prospect status has a lot to do with it. I think the number of players that can participate from a single org is capped at three which is why some big names weren’t included.

Eric A Longenhagen: We also need enough pitchers for Friday’s games, too.

Nick: How have DJ Peters and Yusniel Diaz looked in the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: Diaz looks the same: solid-average tools across the board. Peters hasn’t played consistently (he’s a taxi squad guy and can only play a couple times per week) which has probably compounded his strikeout issues here because he hasn’t really had the chance to get comfortable.

Blackburn: What is Shane Baz‘s upside? Another Mitch Keller? #2?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually think Baz has better stuff. Keller’s fastball command is waaaay better, though.

Jeff: Who is your favorite 3B prospect for a First Year draft upcoming?

Eric A Longenhagen: Must I pick between De Sedas and Gorman?

Charlie: Who have been the guys you from the Fall League who will move up/down the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Troy Montgomery from Anaheim, Andrew Knizner from St. Louis, Nicky Lopez from Kansas City,

Eric A Longenhagen: Those guys are all up for me, Lopez and Knizner might be everyday guys

Solomon: If you had to pick one player right now to be a lock for the top 10 of the 2018 Draft, barring injury or signability, who would it be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Turang

Anthony: Max Povse a potential 3/4 type?

Eric A Longenhagen: More 4/5 for me

Nick S: Acuna, Riley and Jackson are all killing it in the AFL. Reason to get excited?

Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna is the best guy here and it isn’t particularly close.

Jason: I am a massive Royce Lewis fan, I think the Twins nailed the draft. How quickly do you see him making the Majors? Do the twins push him with assignments or take it slow.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s pushed aggressively until he struggles somewhere.

Bill: Favorite White Sox prospect beyond the notable ones?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bernardo Flores

Joshua: Rank these four Giants arms: Melvin Adon, Jose Marte, Camilo Doval, Raffi Vizcaino. Best starting pitcher potential among them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dovall, Adon, Vizcaino, Marte

Eric A Longenhagen: Vizacino probably has the best chance to start.

Nate: Who are some risers and sleepers in the Tigers organization to watch in the AFL and beyond?

Eric A Longenhagen: All the pitchers they sent here have relief potential with Gerson Moreno the bets of that group, in my opinion. 93-96 with an above average breaking ball. Kody Eaves can hit a little bit, might be a bat-first bench guy. A.J. Simcox is probably upper level infield depth, Cam Gibson might be a 5th outfielder, likely also upper level depth.

Anthony: Have you seen Tyler Jay?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep. Was low-90s for me with average curveball and slider.

Tachyon75: Does Grayson Long have much upside beyond a 5th starter or middle relief future?

Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps a bit, but I think the outcomes you listed are most likely.

Anthony: Could Charlie Tilson still be a decent regular? Tools intact following the injuries?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t look great yesterday. Lots of rust to shake off, though.

Bleh: Which prospect has the spookiest name?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa918759&position=2B

JP: Are you higher or lower on Jake Bauers after last year? Put up basically the same line at a higher level, just turned 22.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, he was an HM on the Summer Top 100. I have a 50 on him now.

Mike: Blue Jays fan here. Thoughts on if either/both of Guerrero or Bichette touch the majors next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Vlad, yes.

Chris: There are strong scouting opinions projecting Tanner Houck as a future reliever.  Are his odds of becoming a starter mostly tied to the development of his secondaries or a change in mechanics (or both)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t change his delivery, I’d hope he can learn to do locate his secondaries well enough  to deal with left-handed hitters. If he can’t, he’s a reliever. I thought he showed glimpses of being able to do it at Mizzou, so I think he’s got a chance.

Erik: Is a prospect more valuable if he matches or deviates from the dominate trends of the era? For example, does the current juiced ball era raise the importance of every tool except power, because power is so common, or does it raise the importance of power, because power is basically a prerequisite now?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it devalues real raw power.

Concerned Citizen: Were you born in 1993 or was there a fruit flavor candy related incident?

Eric A Longenhagen: Age 5 is probably when I decided that Sweet Tarts just weren’t worth it, not until all the Reese’s were gone, anyway.

Carlo: Does Neuse have the tools to start at a position aside from 3B? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Just 3B for me.

Kristen: What do you think of TEX’s lower-level C prospect depth w/Kowalczyk, D. Garcia, Pozo, Huff and Whatley to go along with Trevino @ AA?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Texas has among the best catching prospect depth in baseball. Garcia, Pozo and Whatley are all good bets to stay at C and Huff has plus raw power.

Carlo: Your thoughts on Jeisson Rosario? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Had a good on-paper season but I thought he looked worse than he did last fall and he rubbed some scouts the wrong way with his effort level.

Anthony: How many looks does it take before you feel comfortable evaluating an infielder defensively? Seems like arm and range would be obvious, but something like hands or footwork?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seeing in and out lays a good foundation fairly quickly. Footwork is actually the first thing you see because it’s part of every defensive play an infielder makes. Range is hard because a ball has to be hit in the right spot at the right speed to really see a guy max out.

Detroit Pet Rock City: Can Eric Skoglund stick in the majors as a decent backend starter?  Can he at least be 2017 Jake Junis?

Eric A Longenhagen: Junis’ stuff is better.

Anthony: Is Tommy Doyle a real prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Potential middle reliever.

JD15: What are your thoughts on Chance adams? Will he be in the yankees rotation next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like him quite a bit. 93-96, above average slider, average curveball, locates well to his glove side. Needs another sequence or two, but I think he has mid-rotation stuff.

Anthony: If you could choose one, Bubba Thompson or Brandon Marsh?

Eric A Longenhagen: Marsh

Kosch: Do you think Kyle Tucker can play LF in Houston next year?   or a year too early?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe a year too early just because of the other guys already there.

Hinkie: Eric … This time last year, you were doing draft previews for HS players.  Will you be doing the same for the 2018 draft any time soon ?  I’d really like your thoughts on a couple of Arizona kids: Nolan Gorman and Matt Liberatore.

Eric A Longenhagen: There will be draft stuff this offseason. Liberatore is low-to-mid 90s with breaking ball and changuep feel. Likes to get cute with varying his delivery like Johnny Cueto but hasn’t learned the best times to do it, yet. Chance for plus fastball, plus curveball, above average changeup and command. He’s a top 10 pick in most drafts. Gorman lacks physical projection but is athletic, has good feel to hit, average raw power and is a good defensive third baseman. He’s probably the most well-rounded high school bat.

Blackburn: Thoughts on Taylor Hearn? What is his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seeing him today

mike: Which team in your opinion values prospects the least and, conversely, which team values them the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seattle, Milwaukee

JP: Is Matt Olson legit?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still skeptical but he definitely made swing changes last year.

Birddog: Sell me on DJ Stewart as the starting left fielder for the 2019 Baltimore Orioles.

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Hunky Dory: How expensive is Arizona this time of year? Sick of NE weather

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s inexpensive. Spring Training is long dead and the snow birds haven’t arrived yet.

Dookie Howser, MD: Pie’s on Pizzeria or Blue Monkey?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re both 40s

Eric A Longenhagen: But I was at the Monkey more because it was within walking distance of home.

Kris in Seattle: Heard your pod with Carson centered around bias. Considering that FG is a data-focused site centered that effectively attempts to cancel out biases, how do objectively rank two kids: one in AZL that you have seen 5 times and another in the GCL, that you have never seen, but hear great things about. There is a huge, natural bias there and it even shows in your chats.

Eric A Longenhagen: I more highly rank the guy I think is better

Adam B.: What is the latest update on Keston Hiura? I figured he would have had TJS already this offseason if they felt he would need it.

Eric A Longenhagen: He played 2B during instrux. I never got to see him max out the arm but he looked fine there otherwise great with the bat.

LudeBurger: Hi, Eric! Thanks for all your work. I am looking at a baby whale shark as I type this!

Eric A Longenhagen: Whaaaaat!?

dan: From a scouting prospective, what has changed for Ronald Acuna from last year until now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tools are mostly the same, he’s just shown an ability to hit upper level pitching very quickly.

Sonny: When you say a prospect has an ‘average curveball and slider’ do you mean avg for his level or an MLB avg curve/slider?

Eric A Longenhagen: MLB

Birddog: Which top 100 prospect is the next super utility (i.e. Ben Zobrist/Chris Taylor/Logan Forsyth)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmm, good question. I’ll guess Scott Kingery.

Keefths: How does Hiura compare to Kingery ?

Eric A Longenhagen: More power, less speed and defensive ability.

Bill: You get a look at Tucker down there?  How’s he look?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kyle? Not good in CF but he can friggin’ hit.

Mike Rizzo: Have you had a chance to see Robles yet?  Is he more McCutcheon, or Marte?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s Robles.

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually thin k his skillset is similar to Lorenzo Cain‘s, but the bodies are totally different.

Pie Traynee: Any reports on Mitch Keller’s AFL performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him yesterday. Was 92-96 with a good-looking curveball that wasn’t very effective. 2700rpm on the curve but no swings and misses, it was mostly taken for balls down beneath the zone.

John S: Scary Question for Halloween: do any of the top padres pitching prospects land in El Paso this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the system is too crowded for some of them to avoid it. Claustrophobia in EL Paso, there’s your movies.

Johnny: Thoughts on spanberger?  Is he a future dude?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not on him, sorry.

Jordan: is there any websites that have Pitch FX data on minor league players?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s some AFL data on baseball savant and Brooks baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on, I have a link for you…

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fmlbfarm.com%2Fafl_pitchfx.php…

Terry’s Sarape: Which bullpen is in worse shape for tonight?  Game 7 if it gets there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say Houston’s is in worse shape but if Verlander is peak Verlander tonight, that probably won’t matter.

Josh: In the chat format, what types of questions do you most prefer answering: questions about specific prospects or questions touching on a bigger-picture topic (e.g. an organization’s system-wide depth, how scouting as a science is evolving, what you like to look for in a given player type, etc.)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like a mix of stuff, but I will say that some of the open-ended questions are tough to answer because they require several hours of thought and research to answer in a way I find acceptable. You should all feel free to ask what you want and please don’t take it personally if I don’t answer, there are a few thousand questions in the queue and some of them are just going to get skipped over for a myriad of reasons.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, I will say that a good way for questions to NOT be answered is by mentioning other publications in the question. No upside in answering those

NYTT: Acuña is the best positional prospect in baseball (some would argue Vlad jr). How far away is his prospect status from that of the premier prospects of the last ten years like Harper, Buxton, Trout, etc?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a full grade below Trout and Harper right now, maybe a half beneath what I thought of Buxton and Lindor. But Acuna is right there with Bryant, Russell, Moncada, etc. for me.

Matt: How worried are you about Kyle Lewis‘ knee now that problems have flared up with it again?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fairly? If they pop up again next year, very.

Bored Lawyer, Esq: Is there still any starter hope for the Reds’ Cody Reed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so but CIN hasn’t exactly had great success developing the 50/50 start/relief guys into starters.

Sam: As a follower of Yankee prospects, I’m a bit confused by the deviations of opinions on Chance Adams.  I’ve heard he has three good pitches and can touch 98.  Which would make me think he’s a lock to be an SP, but a lot of people who follow the yankees say he’s overrated or a future RP.  Can you speculate on why people are so split on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks like a starter in that he holds the velo deep into games and his repertoire has enough depth to pitch through a lineup multiple times. He also throws enough strikes to start.  He attacks hitters in limited ways, staying away from them almost the whole time. And that concerns some, including me, that he may not be effective one hitters realize they’re either getting a fastball up or breaking ball away one they’re behind.

Eric A Longenhagen: Full mid-season report is here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-61/

College Bro: Have you heard any info on potential impact colleg freshmen?  Or is that off your radar for now

Eric A Longenhagen: Trying to think of who didn’t sign….Garrett Mitchell at UCLA, Drew Swift at ASU…

Eric A Longenhagen: There must be others, but most big name prep guys signed.

Tayne: Is your outlook on Christian Arroyo the same? Still think he’s a 60 grade hit? Does he get a chance to start this year in SF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes to all.

Matt: What are your thoughts on Hicks and Alcantara? Will either develop the command to be a midrotation starter? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Sandy will be bullpen’d quickly, but I’d give him time to start and figure out which breaking ball works best. Hicks might get there.

Bryce Harper: Whatever happened to Yuli’s brother? His hype died really fast

Eric A Longenhagen: Lourdes? Yeah, was never on him as more than a UTIL guy. He looks like that here in AFL so far.

Jordan: Yadier alvarez or tyler beede?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alvarez

Hunky Dory: Thoughts on Billy McKinney?  Has he done enough to earn playing time in the Bronx in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: If they continue to have health issues at 1B I think he’s the first place you go, internally.

Nick: Have you ever been to any haunted houses before?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, they’re pretty common in PA but not here in AZ. People don’t get excited about Halloween here, which I understand. It’s hard to feel festive about autumn when it’s still 96 a week before the 31st.

Terry’s Sarape: Can you explain Altuve in 10 words or less?

Eric A Longenhagen: hits hits hits hits hits hits hits hits hits hits

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, for real:

Eric A Longenhagen: Elite hand-eye, in total control of extreme violence. Hits.

Giant Gonzales: Anything from Chavis make you think he can either fill a role at 2B/1B at some point next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think he plays a big league role next year. I like him more than Sam Travis.

Bryan: Any thoughts on Tyler O’Neill heading into next year in the Cards system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Working on Cards list right now and he’s behind at least three of the other upper level OFs in that system. Might be tough for him to crack a big league job.

Hunky Dory: Does Greg Bird have 80-grade eyebrows?

Eric A Longenhagen: 70. Matt Moore’s are 80s

SpicyBoy: JD murders is now the most searched minor leaguer on fangraphs at the moment

Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, Spicy Boy. I will depart. I’ll be at Scottsdale this afternoon and I tend to do extra video work in the press box after games there so I might have time to hit extra questions on Twitter. Feel free to send stuff my way today and I’ll respond to all that I can. Thanks for coming, see you next week.