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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, 3/21

12:01

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe.

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Chat, go.

12:02

Tommy N.: Did you get to see the Padres’ prospects recently? What can you tell us about what you saw?

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, several.

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on, let me grab my notes so I can do this properly….

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay..

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Top 18 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Baltimore Orioles farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Orioles Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Chance Sisco 22 AAA C 2018 50
2 Cody Sedlock 21 A- RHP 2019 45
3 Ryan Mountcastle 20 A LF 2019 45
4 Keegan Akin 21 A- LHP 2020 45
5 Trey Mancini 24 MLB 1B 2017 45
6 Hunter Harvey 22 A RHP 2020 40
7 Gabriel Ynoa 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
8 Austin Hays 21 A- OF 2020 40
9 Jomar Reyes 20 A+ 3B 2020 40
10 Anthony Santander 22 A+ 1B/OF 2018 40
11 Ofelky Peralta 19 A RHP 2020 40
12 Matthias Dietz 21 A- RHP 2020 40
13 Chris Lee 24 AA LHP 2017 40
14 Jesus Liranzo 22 AA RHP 2017 40
15 Aneury Tavarez 24 AAA OF 2017 40
16 Garrett Cleavinger 22 A+ LHP 2018 40
17 Cedric Mullins 22 A OF 2020 40
18 Tanner Scott 22 AA LHP 2019 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2013 from Santiago HS (CA)
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 193 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 50/50 40/45 30/30 45/50 40/40

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .320/.406/.422 at Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
While this series has often extolled the virtues of loud tools, the best aspects of Sisco’s game are ensconced in quiet. This is most important defensively, where Sisco has improved to the point of viability. Balls in the dirt are sputtering off of Sisco’s catching gear with less force, and his receiving has become more still and refined. Scouts now consider Sisco, who didn’t start catching until his senior year of high school in 2013, a viable defensive backstop. Nobody is particularly excited about him back there, but he’s okay right now and should improve into his mid-20s as he continuously makes good use of his above-average athleticism and refines his skills. In fact, scouts consider Sisco athletic enough that, were something to occur that requires him to move out from behind the plate, he might be able to play somewhere other than first base/DH, which is often the value-crushing alternative for unsound defensive catchers.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Pie

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, chat.

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re all perfect children of god. Let’s chat about baseball.

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh wait, top 100…

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Please check that out if you have yet to.

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, now let’s start.

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2017 Top 100 Prospects

Below is my list of the top-100 prospects in baseball. Each prospect has a brief scouting summary here with links to the full team reports embedded in their names where applicable. Those without links will have them added as I cover the remaining farm systems. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources, as well as from my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

Note that prospects below are ranked overall and that they also lie within tiers demarcated by their FV grades. I think there’s plenty of room for argument within the tiers, and part of the reason I like FV is because it can illustrate how an on-paper gap that seems large may not actually be. The gap between prospect No. 3 on this list, Amed Rosario, and prospect No. 33, Delvin Perez, is 30 spots but the difference between their talent/risk/proximity profiles is quite large. The gap between Perez and prospect No. 63, Kyle Tucker, is also 30 numerical places but the gap in talent is relatively small. Below the list is a brief rundown of names of 50 FV prospects who didn’t make the 100. This same comparative principle applies to them.   -Eric Longenhagen

70 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba
Age 22 Height 6’2 Weight 205 Bat/Throw B/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/60 60/60 40/60 70/70 40/50 70/70

Scouting Summary
The tools are deafening. Moncada is a plus-plus runner with plus-plus arm strength, plus raw power and an advanced idea of the strike zone. He’s going to strike out, and there are some within the industry concerned about how much. That said, I think it’s important to consider that while Moncada was K-ing a lot late last year he was also a 21-year old who had played for just a month and a half above A-ball and, during a large chunk of that time, was learning a new position. The stat-based projection systems, KATOH and otherwise, seem comfortable with it, and so am I. I think he’ll provide rare power and patience while playing a premium position — he’s looked fine at second base in my looks this spring — and, while it might take adjustment at the big-league level, I think he’ll eventually be the best of this crop of minor leaguers.

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Top 33 Prospects: New York Yankees

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the New York Yankees farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Yankees Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Gleyber Torres 20 A+ SS 2018 60
2 Clint Frazier 22 AAA OF 2017 55
3 Blake Rutherford 19 R OF 2019 55
4 James Kaprielian 23 A+ RHP 2018 55
5 Aaron Judge 24 MLB RF 2017 55
6 Jorge Mateo 21 A+ SS 2018 50
7 Dustin Fowler 22 AA CF 2018 50
8 Justus Sheffield 20 AA LHP 2018 50
9 Albert Abreu 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
10 Chance Adams 22 AA RHP 2018 45
11 Miguel Andujar 22 AA 3B 2018 45
12 Dillon Tate 22 A RHP 2018 45
13 Tyler Wade 22 AA UTIL 2017 45
14 Jordan Montgomery 24 AAA LHP 2017 45
15 Chad Green 25 MLB RHP 2017 45
16 Estevan Florial 19 R CF 2020 45
17 Jonathan Holder 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
18 Domingo Acevedo 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
19 Wilkerman Garcia 18 R SS 2021 40
20 Dermis Garcia 19 R 3B 2021 40
21 Nolan Martinez 18 R RHP 2022 40
22 Ronald Herrera 21 AA RHP 2018 40
23 Ian Clarkin 22 A+ LHP 2018 40
24 Gio Gallegos 25 AAA RHP 2017 40
25 Kyle Higashioka 26 AAA C 2017 40
26 Tyler Austin 25 MLB OF 2017 40
27 Rony Garcia 19 R RHP 2020 40
28 Kyle Holder 22 A SS 2021 40
29 Jeff Hendrix 23 A+ CF 2018 40
30 Ben Heller 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
31 Billy McKinney 22 AA OF 2018 40
32 Johnny Barbato 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
33 Leonardo Molina 19 A OF 2021 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela
Age 20 Height 6’1 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 55/60 35/55 50/40 40/50 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .270/.354/.421 in 2016.

Scouting Report
When I first saw Gleyber Torres shortly after I moved to Arizona during the summer of 2014, I thought he was a nice little middle-infield prospect with a good feel to hit and a chance to stay at short. I also thought the offense might not profile to another position. Two years later, Torres has already grown into more raw power than I initially projected (by a full grade) while also remaining potentially viable at short. He has become one of baseball’s best prospects.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospect Chat, March to Completion

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Link to Nationals prospect list….

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve wrestled the Yankees list to the ground should finish hog-tying it late tonight, just before Olney and Gammons start tweeting.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s go.

12:03
80 grade question asker: hi eric, upcoming prospects draft. do you have a preference maitan vs senzel?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say what you probably already know: I like Maitan’s upside, I like Senzel’s probability. Beyond that I’d ask you and all other fantasy owners with this guy or that guy fantasy questions to read my stuff and make a decision about your draft on your own based on what I’ve provided.

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Top 20 Prospects: Washington Nationals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Washington Nationals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Nationals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Victor Robles 19 A+ CF 2019 60
2 Juan Soto 18 A- OF 2020 50
3 Erick Fedde 24 AA RHP 2018 50
4 Luis Garcia 16 R SS 2022 45
5 Carter Kieboom 19 R 3B 2021 45
6 Koda Glover 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
7 Andrew Stevenson 22 AA OF 2018 45
8 Sheldon Neuse 22 A- 3B 2019 40
9 Jesus Luzardo 19 R LHP 2020 40
10 Osvaldo Abreu 22 A+ UTIL 2019 40
11 Kelvin Gutierrez 22 A+ 3B 2019 40
12 A.J. Cole 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
13 Pedro Severino 23 MLB C 2017 40
14 Rafael Bautista 23 AA OF 2017 40
15 Austin Voth 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
16 Blake Perkins 20 A CF 2020 40
17 Joan Baez 22 A RHP 2019 40
18 Brian Goodwin 26 MLB OF 2017 40
19 Jose Marmolejos 24 AA 1B 2018 40
20 Anderson Franco 19 A- 3B 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic
Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/70 40/50 30/45 70/60 45/55 70/70

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .280/.376/.423 with 37 stolen bases in 2016.

Scouting Report
Scouts rightly venerate Robles’ heavenly feel to hit. He identifies balls and strikes consistently, makes mid-flight adjustments to breaking balls, casually wields plus bat speed and has feel for the barrel. He’s one of the better pure hitting prospects in the minor leagues, spraying high-quality contact to all fields and then wreaking havoc on the bases. Robles is also a plus-plus runner whose routes in center field are fine, if perhaps a bit circuitous at times. But, just on his speed, he projects as a 55 defender in center field rather conservatively, which allows him to vigilantly guard both outfield gaps. There’s a chance he’s plus there at peak if his reads (especially on balls hit toward shallow center) improve. He also has a plus-plus arm.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Where is Tebow?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning everyone, we’ll keep things tight to an hour today as I wrap up the Washington prospect list and move on to New York (AL).

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s the Mets list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-new-york-mets/

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: let’s begin

12:03
Slamboni: What are your thoughts on Anderson Tejada? Still young and has room to grow, but his numbers intrigue me

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I like him. Good bat speed, you’re right that the body has more to give and there’s already some power in there, not sure he’s a shortstop but the bat projects fine at second base and if he does stay at short he could be a star. Was raw vs any offspeed stuff in AZL but showed some ability to adjust.

12:04
Fred: Do you prefer Allard or Braxton Garrett?

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Top 20 Prospects: New York Mets

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the New York Mets farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Mets Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Amed Rosario 21 AA SS 2017 65
2 Robert Gsellman 23 MLB RHP 2017 55
3 Dom Smith 21 AA 1B 2017 50
4 Justin Dunn 21 A- RHP 2019 50
5 Andres Gimenez 18 R SS 2020 50
6 Desmond Lindsay 20 A- OF 2020 45
7 Thomas Szapucki 20 A- LHP 2020 45
8 Thomas Nido 22 A+ C 2018 45
9 Brandon Nimmo 23 MLB OF 2017 45
10 Gregory Guerrero 18 R SS 2020 45
11 Gavin Cecchini 23 MLB 2B 2017 45
12 Peter Alonso 22 A- 1B 2020 40
13 Wuilmer Becerra 22 A+ OF 2019 40
14 Josh Smoker 28 MLB LHP 2017 40
15 Luis Guillorme 22 A+ UTIL 2018 40
16 Merandy Gonzalez 21 A- RHP 2019 40
17 Marcos Molina 21 A+ RHP 2018 40
18 Ricardo Cespedes 19 R OF 2020 40
19 Luis Carpio 19 A- UTIL 2020 40
20 Paul Sewald 26 AAA RHP 2017 40

65 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 6’2 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 50/55 40/50 60/60 55/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .324/.374/.459 between High-A and Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report
When Rosario was a teenager, he was a messy amalgam of limbs, athleticism and clearly present baseball instincts that were all wholly unsupported by a lack of physical strength. As he has started to fill out (it was easy to see, even back in 2012, that he was going to) and gotten stronger, he has become more explosive, his actions more refined, and he’s begun to hit. And indeed, at just 21 years old with more room for mass on the body, Amed Rosario has just begun.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, French I Took

11:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi all, links quick before I get going….

11:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, I was in San Diego to see Vanderbilt over the weekend so video of relevant guys is starting to go up.

11:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s Jeren Kendall.

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hitting ASU’s afternoon game against Oklahoma State today and will write up Kyle Wright, Kendall + others for later this week.

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s start.

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