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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/9

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from an anomalously cool Tempe.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s chat will be held tight to an hour as I’ve got some games to hit today.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Begin!

12:03
Jack: Is Jake Gatewood’s power here to stay now? 2015-16 were rough but seems to have tapped into that frame so far this season

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: The power hes always been there and totally undermined by swing and miss issues.

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s strijing out a lot this year, walk rate has gone from 3% to 14% which is too big of an uptick to be entirely real.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/2

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning from Tempe.

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Here are this morning’s daily notes: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-52/

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get right to it.

1:03
Ron: Albies has 80 games at Triple A with a wRC+ of 85 and OBP below .300. When are we allowed to start being concerned?

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s the age of a college sophomore and was hitting .290 before the weekend started. He’s fine.

1:04
Tommy N.: Do you have any thoughts on Joey Lucchesi? Could he be a fast riser considering his age?

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Top 24 Prospects: Oakland Athletics

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Oakland Athletics farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
AL West (HOU, LAA, SEA, TEX)

As Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Franklin Barreto 21 AAA SS 2017 55
2 A.J. Puk 21 A+ LHP 2019 55
3 Jharel Cotton 25 MLB RHP 2017 55
4 Matt Chapman 23 AAA 3B 2017 50
5 Frankie Montas 24 MLB RHP 2017 50
6 Daulton Jefferies 21 A+ RHP 2019 45
7 Daniel Gossett 24 AAA RHP 2017 45
8 Heath Fillmyer 22 AA RHP 2018 45
9 Grant Holmes 21 AA RHP 2019 45
10 Chad Pinder 25 MLB UTIL 2017 45
11 Logan Shore 22 A+ RHP 2019 40
12 Dakota Chalmers 20 A RHP 2020 40
13 Norge Ruiz 23 R RHP 2018 40
14 Yerdel Vargas 17 R SS 2021 40
15 Jaycob Brugman 25 AAA OF 201 40
16 Yairo Munoz 22 AA 3B 2018 40
17 Richie Martin 22 AA SS 2020 40
18 Bruce Maxwell 26 MLB C 2017 40
19 Matt Olson 23 MLB 1B/OF 2017 40
20 Sean Murphy 22 R C 2019 40
21 Lazaro Armenteros 17 R LF 2021 40
22 Max Schrock 22 AA 2B 2019 40
23 Sylar Szynski 19 R RHP 2021 40
24 Bobby Wahl 25 AAA RHP 2017 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Venezuela
Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/55 40/45 60/60 40/45 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded .295 career batting average.

Scouting Report
Barreto was signed by Toronto for $1.45 million back in 2012 and then traded to Oakland — along with Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie, and Sean Nolin — in exchange for Josh Donaldson. Bay Area sports talk radio still discusses the deal with frequency and bile, and largely considers Barreto the last hope for salvaging it, though Graveman and his sinker appear to be breaking out this year.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, April Finale

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Is this thing on?

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Indeed.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Now we chat.

12:01
Nomar Picnics: WHAT TO DO WITH GARRETT. Please advise. Yours, in a panic.

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Amir? He’s fine. That HR rate isn’t going to be that high forever.

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Top 22 Prospects: Texas Rangers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Texas Rangers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
AL West (HOU, LAA, SEA)

Rangers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Leodys Taveras 18 A CF 2020 55
2 Yohander Mendez 22 MLB LHP 2017 55
3 Ariel Jurado 21 AA RHP 2018 50
4 Cole Ragans 19 R LHP 2020 50
5 Ronald Guzman 22 AAA 1B 2018 45
6 Jose Trevino 24 AA C 2018 45
7 Joe Palumbo 22 A+ LHP 2020 45
8 Brett Martin 21 A+ LHP 2020 45
9 Andy Ibanez 24 AA 2B 2018 45
10 Anderson Tejeda 18 A SS 2021 45
11 Alex Speas 19 R RHP 2021 45
12 Josh Morgan 21 R INF 2020 40
13 Connor Sadzeck 25 AA RHP 2017 40
14 Michael DeLeon 20 AA SS 2019 40
15 Miguel Aparicio 18 R CF 2020 40
16 Eric Jenkins 20 A+ CF 2021 40
17 Mike Matuella 22 A- RHP 2019 40
18 Jose Leclerc 23 MLB RHP 2017 40
19 Drew Robinson 24 MLB INF 2017 40
20 Yanio Perez 21 A OF 2019 40
21 Kole Enright 19 R INF 2021 40
22 Jairo Beras 22 A+ OF 2020 40

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic
Age 18 Height 6’1 Weight 170 Bat/Throw S/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/60 40/50 20/45 60/60 45/60 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Has recorded .275 career average.

Scouting Report
Taveras signed for $2.1 million during the 2015 July 2 period and debuted in the DSL last year but, even in a brief time there, was clearly too advanced for that level. After 11 games in the DSL he came to Arizona for rookie ball. Scouts flocked to Arizona mid-summer to get a look at Taveras ahead of the trade deadline and he was a frequently discussed name in July. He has a very mature feel to hit, especially from the left side of the plate, with low-effort plus bat speed, barrel control, and a willingness to take what pitchers give him if a situation dictates it necessary for him to make contact. He also tracks pitches well, and scouts have a future 60 or better on the bat.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, Extended Spring Edition

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from lovely Tempe.

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: The Mariners list went up today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-16-prospects-seattle-mariners/

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Houston’s went up yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-houston-astros/

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be wrapping up Texas and Oakland tomorrow and Thursday so they should be up either late this week or Monday next.

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, this just went up: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/tuesday-cup-of-coffee-411/

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, we chat.

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Top 16 Prospects: Seattle Mariners

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Seattle Mariners farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (HOU, LAA)

Mariners Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Kyle Lewis 21 A- OF 2019 55
2 Tyler O’Neill 21 AAA OF 2017 50
3 Nick Neidert 20 A+ RHP 2019 45
4 Mitch Haniger 26 MLB OF 2016 45
5 Andrew Moore 22 AA RHP 2017 45
6 Dan Altavilla 24 MLB RHP 2017 45
7 Dan Vogelbach 24 MLB 1B 2017 45
8 Ben Gamel 24 MLB OF 2017 40
9 Guillermo Heredia 26 MLB OF 2017 40
10 Max Povse 23 AA RHP 2018 40
11 Chris Torres 19 R SS 2020 40
12 Brayan Hernandez 19 R CF 2020 40
13 Thyago Vieira 24 AA RHP 2018 40
14 Bryson Brigman 21 A 2B 2019 40
15 Joe Rizzo 19 R 3B 2020 40
16 Braden Bishop 23 A+ CF 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Kyle Lewis, OF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mercer
Age 21 Height 6’4 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/70 40/60 45/40 45/55 60/60

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .395/.535/.731 with 20 home runs as junior at Mercer.

Scouting Report
Lewis crashed the national party on the Cape in 2015, distinguishing himself as the most talented prospect and youngest regular on an Orleans roster teeming with talent. (Half of the Firebirds roster were honest-to-god prospects.) His junior year at Mercer included 20 home runs, a Golden Spikes award, and questions about the quality of pitching he faced in the Southern Conference.

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Top 21 Prospects: Houston Astros

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Houston Astros farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (LAA)

Astros Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Francis Martes 21 AA RHP 2018 60
2 Kyle Tucker 20 A+ OF 2019 55
3 Franklin Perez 19 A RHP 2020 50
4 Forrest Whitley 19 R RHP 2019 50
5 Ramon Laureano 22 AA OF 2017 50
6 David Paulino 23 MLB RHP 2017 50
7 Derek Fisher 23 AAA OF 2017 45
8 Teoscar Hernandez 24 MLB OF 2017 45
9 Gilberto Celestino 18 R OF 2020 45
10 Daz Cameron 20 A OF 2020 45
11 Miguelangel Sierra 19 A- SS 2020 45
12 Cionel Perez 20 R LHP 2019 40
13 Garrett Stubbs 23 AA C 2018 40
14 Jandel Gustave 24 MLB RHP 2017 40
15 JD Davis 23 AA 3B 2017 40
16 Ronnie Dawson 21 A- OF 2020 40
17 Framber Valdez 23 A+ LHP 2017 40
18 Hector Perez 20 A RHP 2020 40
19 Freud Nova 17 R SS 2021 40
20 Jake Rogers 21 A C 2019 40
21 Lupe Chavez 19 R RHP 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic
Age 21 Height 6’0 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command
60/60 60/70 45/55 40/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 25% and 9%, respectively, at Double-A.

Scouting Report
The story of Martes’s acquisition is well told. The effects of the deal are obviously still resonating atop Houston’s prospect list, but perhaps more significant is the way that deal changed the way complex-level ball is scouted. Since Martes was unearthed in the GCL, more and more scouts are being assigned to rookie ball in Florida and Arizona. Some clubs have scout(s) here every year, others tailor their coverage based on where they are on the competitive spectrum, with rebuilding clubs more likely to have scouts here than ones who, if they make a trade, are hunting big leaguers instead of teenage lottery tickets. So while Martes has a chance to make a significant impact on an Astros club poised to compete for their division and, maybe, a World Series, the ripples through the industry created by his acquisition are arguably more significant. Okay, on to Martes as a prospect…

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Top 14 Prospects: Los Angeles Angels

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Los Angeles Angels farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Angels Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jahmai Jones 19 A CF 2020 50
2 Brandon Marsh 19 R OF 2020 45
3 Matt Thaiss 21 A 1B 2018 45
4 Chris Rodriguez 18 R RHP 2020 40
5 Alex Meyer 27 MLB RHP 2017 40
6 Nate Smith 25 AAA LHP 2017 40
7 Jamie Barria 20 A RHP 2019 40
8 Keynan Middleton 23 AAA RHP 2017 40
9 Nonie Williams 18 R SS 2021 40
10 Julio Garcia 19 R SS 2021 40
11 David Fletcher 22 AA SS 2018 40
12 Jake Jewell 23 A+ RHP 2018 40
13 Taylor Ward 23 A+ C 2019 40
14 Michael Hermosillo 22 A+ OF 2019 40

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Wesleyan School (GA)
Age 19 Height 5’11 Weight 210 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/60 40/50 30/45 60/60 45/55 45/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .302/.379/.422 in 2016.

Scouting Report
Jones had already asserted himself as the organization’s best prospect by the fall after he was drafted, impressing scouts not only with his as-advertised athleticism and speed but with a surprisingly polished feel to hit and noticeable work ethic.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat, 4/4

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Mornin’. Shorter chat today since I was on for three hours last night during our opening day chat marathon.

12:03
12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: One last thing before I start, there A LOT of questions in the chat asking when Prospect X is going to be in the big leagues. Blanket answer: I don’t know. Too many variables impact that sort of thing that have zero to do with the player’s performance.

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