Members Only Game Thread: ALDS – Oct 5, 2026
Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALDS Game 2. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the White Sox at Guardians and Yankees at Rays. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
We are going to have Members Only Game Threads for the rest of the postseason. The next one will be tomorrow, October 6 at 6:00PM.
Hi all!
Hi Sean
Everyone should respond to our polls. Including you, Keaton!
Guardians are at 0% so I know you haven't voted yet.
I didn't see the poll. Maybe we need a cool sound alert for it.
If you weren't in one of our Game Threads last week, all of you drive the chat. We do have writers that will drop in. Here are a few feature highlights:
– you can view the chat as a thread or chronologically.
– in the top right corner, the gear allows you to delay the messages coming in if your streaming service has a lot of latency
– we have polls that we will cycle through during the games.
– you can reply to messages or react with some emojis (this is new from last time)
I am going to try to hang out here, but I am not sure my nerves can take chatting while watching this.
Which team are you nervous for?
I am a Guardians fan, but to add to my anxiety, I lived in Chicago for over a decade and so I have probably seen more Guardians-Sox games in my life than any other pair of teams.
Gavin needs to find that inside corner to lefties. Got a break on the 0-1 to Teel but can't count on that
Pretty solid inning for Williams. Not sure what happened there with Vargas, but good recovery. Suspect he was a little amped up and it impacted his control.
An underrated storyline in this one is the importance for the Guardians to jump out to a big early lead. It's not important for them, but I have to leave to pick up my daughter in a little over an hour and I would like to feel a little calmer when that happens.
Low leverage while you run errands? Then they can make it close once you get back!
You could have gotten crazy odds on that in March. Probably still in May to be honest.
Kay has stymied the Guards but that has less to do with him, specifically and more to do with the hand he uses. Guards had a 91 wRC+ vs. LHP this year, good for 25th in MLB. Cleveland's offense really improved late in the year, but lefties are an issue.
FWIW, the Sox are 5th in MLB in wRC+ vs. LHP (111), which may have been a factor in G1. Against RHP they are 17th with a 102
I think Cleveland lead the AL in runs/game since the trade deadline or at least very close to it.
7th in MLB in runs scored, 6th in wRC+ since Aug 4
One huge difference between G1 and G2 already, Cleveland is making Kay work. Smith and Taylor in particular just cruised without having to throw many pitches.
Rays are pretty high on that leaderboard: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats…
Hello, dev team!
👋
I don't know who let me out to talk about baseball.
(And the White Sox)
They were third in AL in total runs, but played fewer games than CHI and TB
Going straight to another lefty here to face Adell feels like an odd choice, but I guess Newcomb was next up
(And Chad.)
Hi Davy!
There's a smoke detector beeping in my house and that pitching change wasn't long enough to find it The search will continue after the inning, I guess
Just to be clear, you're ignoring a super loud smoke detector right now?
One that could be informing you of, say, a fire?
The only fire in my house in the Guardians offense
Ok, but like, I'd still make sure of that were I you.
Though I suppose it depends on how much you like your house.
It's definitely just the "low battery" beep, but I appreciate the concern. I love watching my Guardians but not enough to let me house burn down with me in it, I promise!
I don't know how long you've been alive, but since 2015 they actually rank right in the middle of the pack in infield hits.
That's because half our lifetime is Willie Mays Hayes and Jake Taylor bunting.
I am not 100% sure how to measure this, but it feels like you are right, Benny
IF hits, errors, bases loaded walks…they find ways to get runs without actually hitting the ball well
I assume this depends on how much Sean and Keaton trust you.
Yeah, I want to, at least for the staff. I still have to talk to Meg and David about the moderation/trust.
I think in the postseason, teams have two sudden shifts in their thinking about pitcher usage: 1) every single out is crucial and if you can get it with your best arms, you do. 2) being well rested for the future isn't important any more, so if you have to burn your best arm to get the win, you do.
Wait, this question wasn't about mustaches?
Little update: smoke detector was found, batteries were replaced, smoke detector was replaced, and zero pitches were missed. I am better in the clutch than any Cleveland hitter.
Next time try it while covered in midges.
You know, I was at the midges/Joba Chamberlain game! With Ottoneu creator Niv Shah!
That's amazing. Were the midges all over the stands too?
It really wasn't bad in the stands. They're attracted to the lights, I guess, so with the field all lit up, they all want to be down there.
Somebody must have. It seems like it'd be easy enough to do using retrosheet data. But I personally haven't seen it.
I haven't either. I get the logic – you get into a groove/routine, then you sit so long that you lose that rhythm. Plus, your arm gets cold and needs to loosen/warm up again. But…I can create a logical explanation for a LOT of things that don't really happen.
I like how everybody who strikes out in this game really hurries out of the batter's box.
Hi everyone!
Matt!
Hi Matt! And everyone else! ✌️⚾️✌️
Becker!
My favorite fact about Gavin Williams is that he went to Cape Fear High School
Matt! Jon! It's a party!
All of my fantasy teams are named after HS sports teams and I might have to add those two to the list for future teams.
No clue what their plans are, but with an off-day tomorrow and after G4, he should be available for G3 and G5, for sure. Or G4 and G5. Whatever they want to do.
I went to the Guardians' spring training game, played against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, in 2025. Gavin Williams started it and struck out approximately 57 batters in three innings. Looked like the nastiest pitcher I'd ever seen. Don't know what to make of that, but felt it was worth sharing
I have no idea, re: Anthony Kay. He didn't look sharp, but it was such a quick hook that it had to have been planned.
I sort of thought it looked like he gave it 98% and 100% would've done it.
That's definitely a consideration, but lefty-righty is still going to be a bigger factor most of the time.
I also think in this case, he just didn't want to let Kay let this get away early. The IBB to Adell tells you it wasn't about the matchup.
Does Chase Meidroth have a bit of a George Lucas look?
I think it's the beard.
And the intentional use of the beard to make it look like there is.
So those manager interviews are usually such a waste, but Venable saying the plan was for Kay and Newcomb to get through 12 hitters combined and acknowledging that the Kay hook wasn't really planned is interesting.
There should be a margin at which the challenge isn't lost. you don't get the call changed but you don't lose the challenge either.
No. No no no no.
so…you don't like that idea, I take it? lol
The call stands is a scourge.
That's fair, and I generally agree, but "this was actually too close for the computer to know if it was a ball or strike" feels like a harsh moment to take away a challenge.
That is a very good point. But I think either you trust the computer or you don't, you know?
Now THIS I can get behind.
Yeah, I am aligned. Sorry, Sam, that ball was entirely within the zone.
all of them
I don't know. The two games I wrote up this weekend featured tons of successful challenges. I tend to think teams are too cautious with them.
At this point, I doubt he goes more than 6, but he'll get up over 100 if needed
He reached 100 eight times, season high is 113. I think the answer is "a lot."
The only thing that might keep him from going up over 100 is that the bullpen is fully rested and has an off-day tomorrow.
Question for the group: Do you have a go-to baseball-watching snack?
Chips and salsa. but I can't eat during a Cleveland post-season game.
The thing I think is underrated about early challenges is that they can snowball. Turning a PA in your favor now could mean forcing the SP to face another hitter or two. Even if that doesn't turn into runs now, maybe it creates an out or two later that need to be handled but a lesser reliever.
That sounds not fun. Sorry, Phil.
I quite literally have a crown in a plastic bag in my pocked because it came off yesterday and I have to go to the dentist and get it repaired. Not fun. I too would stop eating foods that made this happen.
So per the Venable interview, Newcomb got them back on track with their pitching plan. We'll see what happens from here, but Kay+Newcomb with the RHP getting Adell his second time seems to have been their plan, and here we are.
In the playoffs, when scoring first is crucial and you never know how many baserunners you're going to get on, I think teams should be more aggressive early than they are, especially if there's a man on base. Any moment could prove to be decisive. Don't wait until later when they might not matter later
The announcers are not aware that Nathaniel Lowe does not like to be called Nate.
Ok, Ronny knows.
It's sorta the same argument for using your best relievers when you need them instead of waiting for a save – if you know the challenge/reliever has value now, there is no reason to save it for later, when it might not be needed at all.
I do.
Ok, I have to go pour some milk in a baby. I will see if I can check back in on the chat later. Good to talk to you all!
I really goofed by not adding 🍼 into the emoji reacts.
Derek Junior needs milk!
Williams can be homer-prone – just gotta take your chances when you get them because there won't be many.
Vargas has seen 9 pitches and swung at none
and yeah, this is the moment.
Cleveland got two runs, but still doesn't have an RBI hit this series, so they can't really afford to let this lead slip away
I don't know about "throughout the game" – they looked utterly lost against Williams until this inning – but it does feel like this is a HUGE moment
Even that one run really changes the look of this game
Williams has really lost the thread here and Beni bailed him out
Two – this is the right amount.
that K could be a turning point in the series, but it is definitely a turning point in my day – I need to hop out of here and go be a parent. Go Guards!
No pop on toast references yet?
That cut to Rob Manfred standing alone is among the funniest things I've seen all year
You stan Kroenke?
Yes
I have no idea how anyone hits Williams' curveball
I feel like we don't see that 12-6 curve like we used to. I miss it.
Are the TVs flickering off too?
Yes, and also Ramírez was hurt for most of this season but looked to be coming out of it over the final two weeks. I think that matters, too
Listening to the doppler effect with that ball would be sick.
That was a really nice play by Martinez
The Pope must’ve just turned the game on
Resurfacing this mailbag question:
Is God fixing the tournament in favor of the White Sox? — Kevin
I'm glad I don't have to do that anymore.
Haha yeah same I was totally smart enough for thermodynamics haha anyway how about Hunter Gaddis’ beard?
It's almost as good as Brian Wilson's circa 2010.
Everyone just uses AI for their homework these days; it's a problem.
I'm prepping polls for the Yankees game. 🤷♂️
I know we had that long extra innings game in CLE a few years back. And they went to the ALCS a few years ago, but I don't remember CLE games being super interesting. They also get stuck with early games.
This has been a frustration of mine since openers were first being used.
Baseball famously loves to change. I don't think we've ever been able to determine a better way to classify pitcher appearances. Since a start and relief appearances are objectively defined. We are looking at ways to adapt our probables grid.
Can't see that being overturned.
It's possible. Maybe I'll just how outs!
I'll add that if it's NYY-LAD in the WS.
Man, that's great for Jo Adell
Who said this game was boring?
Lemme confirm.
This is one thing I like about streaming vs linear.
We were 50/50 split on the CHW/CLE game on who would win! Right now we are ~60/40 on the Yankees/Rays on who will win.
And we only have two Yankees fans in the chat.
Re: WAR and 1B Rec question. We haven't incorporated that or the Inf DP this season, because we added those stats in the middle of the season.
Yep! Less of a project, more of in-season consistency.
The sad thing is, I can
A good ole 3-error inning by the Yankees
Yankees in post-season form
It would be so funny if Simpson went yard here
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
If they get out of this with only 1 run…😑
I've always glossed over the ground rules until a few days ago.
I'd be interested to see our FA crowdsource numbers for him. That 31 HR season is intriguing.
Schlittler doesn't have his putaway stuff today.
I know the Rays are hard to strike out, but they're spoiling his fastballs
We force only one-level deep threads. Which messages are you replying to? Or trying to reply to?
Oh the chronological view…your message is the parent for that thread, so that's why. I might rethink how we display that.
No, just something I have to clean up.
Our mean for Peralta IP was 4.84.
So maybe we need that fraction of an inning, so someone can be correct.
edited
The Yankees errors poll is quite something. Median 5 errors, but the mean is 25.67, so we need them to step up some.
Jones should've kept going. Probably could've caught that
They aren't gonna call that an error are they?
Schlittler goes 4.1 IP; we had 6.27 IP mean and 6 IP median.
It looks like they scored it a single. I don't disagree that it should be an error. I've just seen that play called a hit so often now.
Broadcast is saying they haven't heard a scoring decision. Gameday has a single, but they can always change that.
I can't see that being overturned.
He looks convincingly safe.
Will they charge an error for that? We need to hit our prediction!
Error!
😂 I'll work on that feature next.
The mound is even against the Yankees.
Fun game so far!
I'm kinda amused that in the ALDS so far, it's almost if the Yankees said "you know all the stuff about our team that people think isn't good because they're angry about analytics? Let's do those things."
On the bright side, they've tripled their hit count from Game 1!
Getting five errors in a game *is* a pretty impressive feat, since game scorers today don't like giving errors unless they look like complex vaudeville sketches.
We are going to underestimate the errors! I put that poll up as a joke.
Alright! Let's do this again tomorrow!
