After a whirlwind 24-hour period in which the National Basketball Association, the National Hockey League, and Major League Soccer all announced suspensions of their regular season games in the wake of local restrictions on the size of mass gatherings as a means of slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus, Major League Baseball has followed suit. Following a conference call involving commissioner Rob Manfred and the 30 team owners, the league has shut down its spring training schedules in both Arizona and Florida and will delay the start of the regular season, which was scheduled to begin on March 26, by at least two weeks.

Here’s the statement from MLB:

This is the first time since 1995 that the start of the season has been delayed; that year, following the resolution of the strike that wiped out the 1994 World Series, the schedule was shortened to 144 games. MLB’s two-week assessment should be taken with a grain of salt given the fluidity of the situation; just two days ago, the aforementioned leagues banded together to issue a joint statement regarding the closure of locker rooms and clubhouses to the media, a comparatively minor deviation from business as usual. The situation escalated rapidly on Wednesday, as the World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic and a top U.S. health official (Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) recommended against the assembly of large crowds for sporting events. It took around two hours between the revelation that an NBA player (Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert) had tested positive and the league’s decision to suspend play due to the need to quarantine players or advise those who had been exposed to Gobert to self-quarantine. The NBA reportedly told teams on Thursday that its suspension would last for a minimum of 30 days.

Via the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the expectation is that MLB teams will ask players to remain at spring sites, where they have access to team medical personnel and can continue to work out; however, players can go as they please. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters that players will be allowed to continue training at their Camelback Ranch facility but that the pace of workouts would be dialed back, and players could go home if they choose. The Brewers are hosting optional workouts for players on Friday and Monday but not over the weekend, and there will be no media availability until Monday. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ current plan is to remain in Tampa, and potentially play intra-squad or simulated games, though that may also change.

Schedule-wise, while nothing official has been announced, The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan reported via Twitter, “Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said the idea now is to pick up the season at whatever point on the schedule play resumes. If only a short time has been missed, MLB could add those games on the back end.” Such a situation would be similar to how MLB handled the 2001 season following September 11, when a week’s worth of games was postponed and then made up after the previously scheduled end of the regular season, such that all teams except the Yankees and Red Sox completed 162-game schedules.

Such policies have not been announced officially, however, and a host of other unanswered questions involving salaries for major and minor leaguers (none of whom get paid during spring training, except per diem meal money), and service time, also loom. Per the Associated Press’ Ronald Blum:

If regular-season games are lost this year, MLB could attempt to reduce salaries by citing paragraph 11 of the Uniform Player’s Contract, which covers national emergencies. The announcement Thursday said the decision was made “due to the national emergency created by the coronavirus pandemic.”

“This contract is subject to federal or state legislation, regulations, executive or other official orders or other governmental action, now or hereafter in effect respecting military, naval, air or other governmental service, which may directly or indirectly affect the player, club or the league,” every Uniform Player’s Contract states.

The provision also states the agreement is “subject also to the right of the commissioner to suspend the operation of this contract during any national emergency during which Major League Baseball is not played.”

Ugh. Obviously, this is sad news for the sport we love and the season we’re hotly anticipating, but those concerns are secondary in the face of a public health crisis during which schools and other institutions have been closed and people have become sick or died; the worldwide confirmed case count as of Wednesday is upwards of 127,000 as of Wednesday, and the death toll is approaching 5,000. We can hope that the games return to us in short order, but right now, nobody really knows what’s in store.

On Wednesday, the dominoes began falling across the landscape of US sports with respect to the spread of the novel coronavirus. A day that included the World Health Organization officially declaring the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, and a top U.S. health official telling a Congressional committee, “Bottom line, it’s going to get worse,” saw leagues and organizations take unprecedented steps in order to comply with governmental restrictions on large gatherings. Such social distancing measures have been proven to slow the spread of a virus — to “flatten the curve” in order to avoid overwhelming health care systems and force grim decisions on triage — that has shown a 33% daily rise in the cumulative number of cases, and that may ultimately infect 70 million to 150 million people in the U.S. alone, one for which a vaccine is at least a year away.

Where on Tuesday Major League Baseball’s closure of locker rooms and clubhouses went into effect, by late Wednesday that measure and the concerns that surrounded it looked like small potatoes compared to the NCAA’s announcement that its signature basketball tournament would proceed without spectators, and the NBA’s indefinite suspension of its season following a player testing positive for the virus. While MLB began addressing its most acute situations in Seattle and San Francisco on Wednesday due to decisions made by local authorities, it’s now quite apparent that the league will soon need to move beyond piecemeal solutions and be forced to make a choice between delaying its March 26 Opening Day or playing games behind closed doors. Reporters such as ESPN’s Jeff Passan and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman have suggested that spring training could soon be suspended.

[UPDATE: Via Passan, MLB is expected to suspend spring training after a conference call among owners on Thursday afternoon, and the league “likely will delay the beginning of the regular season as well.” Passan quoted Dodgers pitcher David Price, “”It’s gotta happen. This is so much bigger than sports. I’ve got two kids.”]

As noted previously, such measures are hardly the biggest sacrifice to be made at a time when schools and other institutions are being closed and people are becoming sick or even dying amid an epidemic whose worldwide confirmed case count is upwards of 127,000 as of Wednesday, and whose death toll is approaching 5,000. Read the rest of this entry »

Like a fast-moving prospect, the novel coronavirus — or rather, concerns about what precautions to take in order to protect players amid the epidemic caused by its spread — has reached the majors. No games have been canceled yet, but on Monday, after a conference call with all 30 team owners, Major League Baseball announced its plans to join forces with the National Basketball Association, the National Hockey League, and Major League Soccer in limiting media access to players due to concerns about the COVID-19 outbreak. As of Tuesday, locker rooms and clubhouses have been temporarily closed to news media and any non-essential personnel, with media access to uniformed personnel shifted to designated locations, and barriers have been put in place to enforce a minimum distance of six feet between reporter and subject.

A barrier area has been set up for reporters outside the Yankees clubhouse: pic.twitter.com/rTmftoDa94

— James Wagner (@ByJamesWagner) March 10, 2020

Admittedly, this is hardly the biggest sacrifice to be made at a time when schools and other institutions are being closed, and people are getting sick or even dying amid an epidemic that has infected over 113,000 people in 110 countries and appears to be rapidly advancing in the US, with 647 confirmed cases and 25 deaths spread across 35 states as of Tuesday afternoon (the estimated total number of people infected in the US may be an order of magnitude higher, but a shortage of tests is slowing the pace of confirmations). Yet it’s a move that should hit home to anybody reading this, not only because the quality of the coverage will suffer but because the decision highlights the tension between for-profit leagues and public health concerns. It also raises questions about the steps that the league has not yet taken and what could happen if even more drastic measures are required. Read the rest of this entry »

Sunday afternoon was a worrisome one for the Astros, as Justin Verlander made an early departure from his Grapefruit League start against the Mets, complaining of right triceps soreness. While manager Dusty Baker said the move was precautionary, the 37-year-old righty underwent an MRI on Monday, which revealed not a triceps injury but a strain of his latissimus dorsi, albeit a minor one. Even if it’s not a major injury, any potential sidelining of the two-time Cy Young winner highlights the uncertainty within an Astros’ rotation hit hard by free agency.

Coming off a season in which he brought home that long-sought second Cy Young award on the strength of a 21-6 record, 2.58 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 300 strikeouts, and 6.4 WAR, Verlander waited until January to begin his offseason throwing program, and lately, his spring has not gone as planned. He was scratched from his February 27 start due to discomfort in his right groin, instead throwing a simulated game. After getting roughed up over the course of 2.2 innings and 53 pitches — but touching 97 mph with his fastball — against the Cardinals on March 3, he was scheduled to go four innings on Sunday against the Mets. He held them scoreless for two innings while throwing 29 pitches, but after his second inning, informed pitching coach Brent Strom that he was experiencing triceps soreness. Via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart:

“We don’t know if he is hurt,” Baker said. “Like I said, it’s precautionary. I was surprised his velocity [91-94 mph] was down a tick from the last time, but you know Verlander can dial it up when he gets ready. We didn’t see anything. I was quite surprised when Strommy came over and told me he had to come out of the game.”

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12:35

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, sorry for the delay, which will extend just a few more minutes. I just filed a piece on the Astros’ rotation question marks behind Justin Verlander, who left yesterday’s start with a triceps complaint. Let me get situated and I’ll begin tackling the questions.

12:41

Jay Jaffe: OK, i’m back. White knuckle Monday morning spilling into afternoon, but lunch (sushi) is on the way and so are some answers.

12:42

Jay Jaffe: LOL I was misidentified as the EIC this morning in a tweet promoting my appearance on Chicago’s 670 The Score, but co-host Connor McKnight set the record straight: Connor McKnight @C1McKnight @jay_jaffe We at this Twitter account sincerely regret the error and apologize, profusely, to @megrowler @fangraphs and baseball fans everywhere. We do, however, appreciate the conversation and the irony of a non-editor editing the tweet. 9 Mar 2020

12:44

Jay Jaffe: i’d say maybe 3-4 on a scale of 10. The comparison has been made to his 2015 absence, which lasted into mid-June, but the Tigers appear to have mishandled the initial diagnosis and he also strained a lat during rehab. If I’m throwing out a wild guess before the MRI results come in, I think this points to him starting the season on the injured list but returning by mid- to late April.

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With their eyes shifting from rebuilding to contending, the White Sox have been on a spending spree lately, not only signing a fistful of free agents this winter but also locking up some of their most talented young players via long-term extensions. They struck again on the latter front on Thursday; via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, they’ve agreed to a five-year extension with Yoán Moncada, their most valuable position player in 2019.

Moncada, who signed with the Red Sox out of Cuba for a record $31.5 million back in February 2015, topped the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects list in 2017, shortly after being traded from Boston to Chicago in the Chris Sale blockbuster. He put together uneven performances at the big league level in 2017 and ’18 but began living up to that top prospect billing by breaking out in a big way in ’19, his age-24 season. While he missed three weeks in August due to a right hamstring strain, he hit a sizzling .315/.367/.548 with 25 homers and 10 steals. He tied for sixth in the AL in wRC+ (141) and placing ninth in WAR (5.7).

There was much to like about Moncada’s breakout on both sides of the ball. Despite a more aggressive approach at the plate that saw his O-Swing% jumped from 23.3% to 32.7%, and his overall swing rate from 41.1% to 47.3%, he cut his strikeout rate from 33.4% (yielding a league-high 217 strikeouts) to 27.5%. Not only did he make more frequent contact, he hit the ball much harder; his average exit velocity jumped from 90.6 mph to 92.8, seventh among all qualifiers, and his xwOBA shot from .302 to .362. On the defensive side, he seamlessly handled the move from second base, where he was subpar in 2018 (-3.7 UZR, -11 DRS), to third base, where he was more or less average (4.3 UZR, -4 DRS). Read the rest of this entry »

Christian Yelich has emerged as one of the game’s elite players while playing under a very club-friendly contract. Now it appears as though the Brewers’ right fielder will be paid like the superstar he’s become, even while staying put in the game’s smallest market. According to The Athletic‘s Ken Rosenthal (with a substantial assist from the New York Post’s Joel Sherman), the Brewers and Yelich are nearing agreement on an extension that will cover nine years and be worth around $215 million, with a mutual option for a 10th year.

Yelich won NL MVP honors in 2018 while leading the Brewers to a division title and helping them come within one win of a trip to the World Series. He hit .326/.402/.598 with 36 homers and league bests in batting average, slugging percentage, wRC+ (166) and WAR (7.6), then followed that up with another MVP-caliber campaign that featured even better numbers, including a slash-stat Triple Crown (.329/.429/.671), 44 homers, and again league bests in both wRC+ (174) and WAR (7.8). Alas, on September 10, he fracture his right kneecap by fouling a pitch off of it (OUCH), ending his season and, as it turned out, his MVP hopes; he finished second to Cody Bellinger, over whom he had a slight statistical advantage at the time of the injury.

Including his 2016 and ’17 seasons, which were worth a combined 10.0 WAR, Yelich has been the majors’ third-most valuable player over the past four years. You can probably guess who’s first and second:

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Back in December, the Braves signed Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18 million deal, a move that effectively replaced one grizzled, championship-tested southpaw with another, namely departing free agent Dallas Keuchel. As with the former Astro, who didn’t sign with the team until last June, the Braves apparently aren’t going to get a full complement of starts from the former Phillie, as Hamels is well behind schedule due to an offseason shoulder injury, a move that opens the door for the Braves to test their vaunted pitching depth.

Recall that after a stellar first three months of last season (2.98 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 99.2 IP), Hamels left his June 28 start with an oblique strain, and after missing five weeks, he struggled upon returning. Lasting five innings or more in just four of 10 starts, he was touched for a 5.79 ERA and 5.29 FIP while losing a bit of velocity (0.9 mph per PitchInfo) and swing-and-miss, and made just one start after September 16 due to shoulder fatigue. Still, thanks to a much-improved changeup, his full-season 4.09 FIP and 2.5 WAR were his best marks since 2015, and he reportedly generated interest from at least 13 teams before signing with the Braves.

The shoulder is apparently still a problem. As camp opened on February 12, the Braves revealed that the 36-year-old lefty “irritated” (manager Brian Snitker’s word) his shoulder doing weighted ball exercises over the course of the winter, was going to be behind schedule, and would be reevaluated in three weeks. Ten days later, after undergoing treatment from Dr. Keith Meister of TIM Sports Medicine and Orthopedics in Dallas, Hamels described what sounds like garden-variety shoulder inflammation:

“I know I’m behind the 8-ball,” he said. “But once I knock (the inflammation) out right away, I know I’ll be able to be the best pitcher I can and put up good numbers.

…“It hit a point where I couldn’t get past (the pain),” Hamels said. “Soreness is good but you have to know what’s good and what’s bad. I wasn’t feeling as good as I thought I should and I couldn’t overcome it without asking the right questions.”

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It’s only March 2, but between Yoenis Céspedes‘ media blackout, J.D. Davis‘ shoulder scare, and Brandon Nimmo’s irregular heartbeat, the Mets’ outfield has already enlivened the spring with a fair bit of drama and a few eye-catching headlines. Thankfully none those events has turned into a worst-case scenario, and as Opening Day approaches, the unit looks to be a potential source of strength on a contending team — though as ever, it could be a challenge to fit all of the parts together.

Indeed, assembling the pieces into a coherent whole has been a perennial shortcoming for the Mets, even before Brodie Van Wagenen took the reins as general manager; this team hasn’t had a true two-way center fielder — as opposed to a misplaced corner who could outhit his mistakes in the middle pasture — since the heyday of Ángel Pagán, if not Carlos Beltrán. Last year’s roster, the first one assembled by Van Wagenen, had such a surplus of infielders that its six most common outfield configurations (from among 27 different permutations in all) involved at least one infielder who had little major league experience as a flychaser:

Coming into 2019, McNeil had never played the outfield in the majors and had just eight games of minor league experience there, while Davis’ outfield resumé amounted to five major league games plus 31 in the minors, with Smith notching 13 in the majors and 26 in the minors. One had to scroll down to the team’s seventh most commonly-used configuration to find a trio of seasoned outfielders playing in the same unit. The mismatches contributed to ongoing defensive woes, as the team ranked 13th in the NL in defensive efficiency (.677), 14th in UZR (-12.8), and last in DRS (-86). Read the rest of this entry »

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