NEW YORK — It would be an understatement to say that the Mets have had catching issues in recent years as they’ve cycled through aging free agents, but they finally have a homegrown solution at hand in Francisco Álvarez. The 21-year-old Venezuela native entered the season as the game’s top catching prospect, and while he lacked a clear path to playing time, a double whammy of injuries cleared the way. So far Álvarez has impressed while gaining the trust of the pitching staff’s veterans, including Max Scherzer. On Thursday afternoon, the three-time Cy Young winner and the rookie clicked for the former’s best start of the season. 

Scherzer completed seven innings for the second start in a row, and struck out a season-high nine hitters. The effort helped secure a 4-2 win that completed a three-game sweep of the Phillies and pulled the Mets (30-27) to within 3.5 games of the NL East-leading Braves (33-23), the closest they’ve been since May 1.

Leaning on his four-seam fastball more than usual, particularly with two strikes, Scherzer set season highs for whiffs (22) and CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs as a percentage of total pitches, 36%) as well as strikeouts. Fifteen of those whiffs came via his fastball, which generated a 49% CSW%. Afterwards, Scherzer cited his catcher’s game-calling as the key to his performance:

“I thought today, the most important thing was sequencing, I thought we were mixing up what we want to do, he’s great with it. He’s understanding how I think and pitch. 

“When you catch that rhythm, you kind of know how to keep turning through a lineup and how you’re going to face them the first time, the second time, the third time. I had good stuff, but I thought the sequencing was even better.”

Scherzer credited Álvarez with helping him get more comfortable with the PitchCom system, of which he was critical last year while adopting it with reservations. “I want Alvy to call the game, I don’t want to have to override him, I don’t want to have to call a pitch unless I really know it,” he said. “We’re not using any fingers. And that’s a big change for me, it’s so foreign just being on PitchCom. But working with him, we’re in a good rhythm.”

It took the better part of the first inning to establish that rhythm on Thursday, as one of Álvarez’s weaknesses was spotlighted. After yielding a one-out single to Trea Turner, Scherzer walked Bryce Harper, and when he threw a low-and-away fastball to Nick Castellanos on 1-2, Turner led the way on a double steal attempt. Álvarez’s throw sailed to the left of third baseman Brett Baty and into left field as Turner scored on the error; Harper took third, then came home on Castellanos’ sacrifice fly, putting the Mets in a 2-0 hole.

The steals were Álvarez’s 35th and 36th allowed this season, the NL’s third-highest total; he’s thrown out just five baserunners, for a success rate of 12%. By Statcast’s catcher throwing metrics, which control for the distance of the leadoff, runner speed, pitch location, pitcher and batter handedness, and more, Álvarez’s -2 Catcher Stealing Runs is tied for the major’s third-lowest mark. His average pop time of 1.94 seconds places him in the 67th percentile but is notably higher than the occasional sub-1.80 times noted in his prospect report, neutralizing his plus arm at least somewhat.

(So long as we’re peeking at defensive data, it’s worth noting that Álvarez’s blocking and framing have both scored well in the early going via Statcast; he’s one run above average in the former category, and three runs above in the latter. By FanGraphs’ framing data, he’s 4.9 runs above average, good for fourth in the majors, and by the framing-inclusive version of Defensive Runs Saved — which is not used in the calculation of bWAR — his six runs above average is tied for the major league lead.)

Beyond the throwing mishap, Álvarez didn’t have any further troubles behind the plate. Facing old friend Taijuan Walker, the Mets scratched out a run in the third inning on two walks and a Jeff McNeil single, then took the lead in the fourth on Mark Canha’s two-run homer, and added an insurance run in the sixth via Mark Vientos‘ sacrifice fly. Scherzer scattered four additional hits but didn’t walk another batter or allow another run after the first, and the bullpen — Jeff Brigham, Brooks Raley, and Drew Smith — preserved the lead and wrapped up the win.

Álvarez has caught three of Scherzer’s last four starts, a span during which he’s allowed just four runs (three earned) in 25 innings while looking like a future Hall of Famer who’s still got plenty of good innings remaining. That’s a big change from a few weeks ago, after physical woes and an ejection for using a foreign substance limited Scherzer to 6.1 innings in a 33-day span: 

Álvarez has started 32 of the Mets’ first 57 games due to the injuries of Omar Narváez and Tomás Nido, which wasn’t what the team initially planned for the no. 13 prospect on our preseason Top 100 list. He was initially assigned to Triple-A Syracuse, where he played 45 games last year after a 67-game stint at Double-A Binghamton. Álvarez hit a combined .260/.374/.511 between the two stops last year, earning a five-game cup of coffee with the Mets as well as a spot on the postseason roster.

Given the abysmal .217/.264/.306 performance the Mets got from their catchers (mainly Nido and James McCann), and the lack of offense they received from righty designated hitter Darin Ruf, fans clamored for Álvarez to arrive in Queens even sooner than he did. It’s not hard to imagine that heeding those calls could have made the difference in a division race where the 101-win Mets and Braves were separated only by a head-to-head tiebreaker that forced New York to play a Wild Card Series (which it lost) while Atlanta received a first-round bye.

The Mets signed the 31-year-old Narváez to a two-year, $15 million deal this past winter, hoping he could mentor Álvarez while upgrading a perennial weak spot. Since 2018 — when Travis d’Arnaud tore his ulnar collateral ligament early in April — through the end of last season, the team’s catchers hit for just a 76 wRC+, tied for 23rd in the majors, and produced a meager 2.8 WAR, which ranked 25th. Wilson Ramos, whom the team signed to a two-year, $19 million free agent deal in December 2018, accounted for more than half of that WAR (1.5) in ’19 while hitting for a 106 wRC+, the only average-or-better performance by a Mets catcher with at least 120 PA in that five-season span.

Ramos’ 2020 decline prompted the ill-advised signing of McCann to a four-year, $40.6 million deal in December of that year. He netted just 0.9 WAR in the first two seasons of that contract before being traded to the Orioles for a player to be named later (Luis De La Cruz) in December, with the Mets eating $19 million of the $24 million remaining on his deal. McCann was limited to 53 games last year due to a fractured hamate and an oblique strain. That’s how Nido, whose only previous full season on a major league roster since 2017 was in the pandemic-shortened ’20 season, made a career-high 86 starts. He hit a meager .239/.276/.324 (74 wRC+) but was good for 7.2 framing runs by our metric, and six by that of Statcast, with an additional three runs above average in blocking and one in stolen base prevention via the latter source.

Narváez, who hit for just a 71 wRC+ last year but owns a career 101 mark and was worth 2.8 WAR as recently as 2021, was slated to start ahead of Nido, but he played just five games before suffering a medium-to-high-grade strain of his left calf and landing on the 60-day injured list, which led the Mets to summon Álvarez from Syracuse. While team officials had insisted during the spring that if Álvarez was in the majors, he would catch regularly, manager Buck Showalter didn’t seem to be in a hurry to write him into the lineup, telling reporters that the rookie would receive “some” playing time but making clear he was the understudy by saying, “It’s kind of like a backup quarterback that gets drafted out of college. Everybody knows he’s going to be a really good player, but the time he spends as a backup is very valuable too.” 

Álvarez started just two of the first seven games for which he was on the active roster; the Mets lost both while winning the other five, all started by Nido. But whether or not Showalter needed a nudge from above, Álvarez soon began getting more reps. From April 15 to the end of the month, he started nine games to Nido’s seven, though he hit just .194/.216/.278 in 51 plate appearances for April. Nido was even less productive at the plate, however, and after getting just one more start on May 5, he went on the IL with “dry eye syndrome” and an eye-watering .118/.148/.118 (-25) batting line in 55 PA himself. 

Since the beginning of May, Álvarez has started 22 of the team’s 30 games, with Michael Perez and Gary Sánchez each starting two games apiece to give him a breather; both have since departed, with the former back in Syracuse and the latter in San Diego. Nido, who made a late-inning cameo after being activated on May 25, only made his first start since returning on Wednesday night. The repetitions allowed Álvarez to settle in, and it paid off handsomely, as he hit .292/.363/.667 with seven homers in May, including five in an eight-game span from May 17–26. For the month, he led the team’s regulars in slugging percentage and placed second in homers behind Pete Alonso. Even with an 0-for-3 on Thursday, he’s batting .252/.308/.523 for a 129 wRC+, third on the team behind Alonso (141 wRC+) and Brandon Nimmo (131 wRC+). His total of eight homers is already the most by any 21-or-under catcher since Ivan Rodriguez in 1993.

“I can’t say enough good things about him,” said Justin Verlander of Álvarez recently. “I think we all know the bat is going to be there. But the work he’s done behind the plate, and the work he’s done to get to know the pitchers, and the improvements he’s made already, it’s just a great sign for him as a future major leaguer.” Grizzled veterans such as Carlos Carrasco and David Robertson have sung his praises for his preparation and handling of the staff, while hitting coach Jeremy Barnes has commended his willingness to make adjustments to what had too often been an all-or-nothing approach. Notably, where Álvarez struck out 35.1% of the time in April, he’s trimmed that to 19.3% since, and where he didn’t have a single barrel in April, he’s barreled 13.6% of his batted balls since.

With Nido now back and Narváez in Syracuse on his rehab assignment, the Mets will soon face a catching crunch. Showalter said back in April that he would consider DHing Álvarez when he’s not catching, “if he shows he’s an offensive force up here,” which he has. That could be bad news for Vientos, who has hit just .192/.214/.308 in 28 PA while serving mainly as a platoon partner for lefty DH Daniel Vogelbach.

Showalter didn’t mention DH duty on Thursday when asked about the potential crowd of catchers, sounding as though he expected to carry all three. “I’m gonna make use of all of ’em,” he said. “Tomás had a good game last night behind the plate, got a base hit, I think we won’t forget he’s been a good catcher for us. Omar’s around the corner, but I kind of like where Francisco is. I’m not gonna box anybody out.”

All of which suggests that at the very least, the kid stays in the picture. While Álvarez is far from a finished product, he’s clearly a special one.

“He just has instincts. You can never teach instincts, you either have it or you don’t. He’s kind of got that it factor to him,” said Scherzer. “He just needs to continue to learn and continue to get experience, and he’ll continue to get better… As long as he has that attitude, and wants to get better every single day, he’s gonna be a great player.”

Aaron Judge is at it again. On Tuesday night in Seattle, the reigning AL MVP and home run king clubbed a towering solo shot off Darren McCaughan to aid the Yankees’ 10–2 win over the Mariners and to continue his latest rampage. It was his fourth homer in three days, his 12th in his past 16 games, and his AL-leading 18th overall. With that, he’s matched his total through the end of May last year, doing so in 46 games, one fewer than in 2022, though the Yankees have played 57 games, leaving him still behind the full-season pace he set en route to an AL-record 62 homers.

Even with this binge, Judge doesn’t lead the majors in homers. Hell, he doesn’t even lead New York City in homers. That honor belongs to Pete Alonso, who’s hit 20. Though he hasn’t homered since Saturday against the Rockies, the Mets first baseman has hit 14 since May 9, the day Judge came off the injured list after missing 10 games due to a minor hip problem. Here’s Saturday’s homer, which came at the expense of Chase Anderson:

Now that we’ve enjoyed some dingers, it’s only fair to mention that this article isn’t really about either of the Empire State’s sluggers so much as it is the conditions under which they’re positioning themselves for runs at 50-homer seasons — again. Recall that Judge set a rookie record with 52 in 2017, only to be topped by Alonso with 53 two years later. Balls aren’t flying out of the yard at the pace they did in either of those seasons, which happen to be the two highest full seasons on record; in 2017, teams bashed 1.26 homers per game, and in 2019, they upped that rate to a stratospheric 1.39 per game. This year, teams are averaging 1.15 homers per game, the seventh-highest rate on record (or sixth-highest, if you exclude the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). You have to carry the calculations out to a third decimal to place it properly:

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2:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the post-Memorial Day edition of my chat. I had a weekend of solo parenting that was filled with activity, including taking my 6 1/2 year old daughter to a Yankees-Padres game on Friday night, but didn’t see much baseball otherwise until last night when I had Bobby Miller on one device and Bryce Miller on the other.

2:03

Jay Jaffe: anyway… no article from me today due to travel. ON Friday I checked in on Trea Turner’s struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trea-turners-slide-has-not-been-smooth/ and the day before that on Carlos Correa’s foot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-correas-rebound-from-a-slow-start-h… Surprisingly, the latter has avoided the IL for now

2:04	Jay Jaffe: I’m impressed so far. I mean, who wouldn’t be given his .269/.327/.558 start through 113 PA?

2:04	Jay Jaffe: He’s +4.9 runs in framing, too. Didn’t see that coming

2:05	Jay Jaffe: He graded out as a 60 FV prospect, which is All-Star caliber. I haven’t seen anything to suggest he won’t be one though I don’t expect him to maintain a 142 wRC+

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It may not have ended the slump he’s fallen into since mid-April, but Trea Turner picked a very good time to snap out of a 2-for-20 skid that began last weekend. On Wednesday afternoon against the Diamondbacks, the Phillies were trailing, 5–3, and down to their final out, in danger not only of being swept in the three-game series but also of losing for the eighth time in 10 games. Then José Ruiz hung a curveball that Turner didn’t miss, pounding it for a game-tying two-run homer. The Phillies won in 10 innings, but whether this the start of a turnaround for Turner — who, like Manny Machado, is off to a rough start on his new $300 million contract — remains to be seen.

The homer was Turner’s fifth of the year and his first since May 6. Even with it and Thursday’s subsequent 0-for-5 against the Braves, his offensive numbers look a whole lot more like what the Phillies got from their shortstops (Didi Gregorius, Bryson Stott, Johan Camargo, and Edmundo Sosa) last year than what Turner did with the Dodgers:

Turner has been frank about his struggles. After Monday’s loss to the Diamondbacks, he told reporters, “I’m honest with myself, I’ve sucked.” While that may be overstating the case a bit, he hasn’t offered anything close to his superstar-level play of the past two seasons, and only through respectable (if small sample) defensive metrics at shortstop (1.6 UZR, 1 OAA, -2 DRS) is he above replacement level. Using our UZR/OAA inputs, his 0.6 WAR prorates to 2.0 over a full season — more or less average — but using DRS, his 0.3 bWAR prorates to just 1.0 WAR, or decidedly below average. Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Correa has foot problems. No, we’re not talking about the concerns that scuttled his preliminary agreements on a pair of contracts in excess of $300 million this past winter. Those centered around the risk of future problems with his right foot, a legacy of the fractured fibula he sustained in 2014. Correa, who was scratched from the lineup for Tuesday’s game against the Giants and sat out Wednesday as well, is currently dealing with issues in his left foot and is likely to wind up on the injured list, stalling his recovery from a very slow start to his second season with the Twins.

On Monday night at Target Field, Correa roped a double to left field off the Giants’ Sean Manaea. He came into second standing up, but as he explained on Tuesday, he took an odd step rounding first base, whereupon his left heel began to bother him. He gutted out the remainder of the game but was in more pain the following morning and, after undergoing an MRI that revealed inflammation in his heel, was scratched from Tuesday’s game.

On Wednesday, Correa was diagnosed with a muscle strain in his left arch as well as plantar fasciitis, the inflammation of the thick band of tissue that connects the heel bone to the toes. The team has not decided whether he’ll be placed on the IL, and at least as of Tuesday, he harbored hopes of returning for this weekend’s series against the Blue Jays. Manager Rocco Baldelli was less sanguine, telling reporters, “I think we get to Friday and some of our decisions might be made for us.”

Even leaving aside the strain, plantar fasciitis isn’t something that’s going to dissipate in a couple of days. The Baseball Prospectus Recovery Dashboard contains 13 instances of players going on the IL for plantar fasciitis since 2016 (though none for 2020). Those 13 stints averaged 35 days, with a low of 12 (John Lackey in 2016), a median of 30, and a high of 85 (Harrison Bader last year).

Again, this is the opposite foot from the one that led the Giants and the Mets to pull their respective offers — 13 years and $350 million for the former, $12 years and $315 million for the latter — due to concerns that emerged during his pre-signing physicals this past winter. Those concerns could be traced back to 2014, when as a 19-year-old prospect at High-A Lancaster, Correa caught his cleat in a base as he slid, fracturing his right fibula, damaging ligaments, and requiring the surgical insertion of a plate in his ankle. Though he’s never missed a major league game traceable to those injuries, both teams got spooked. Once the Mets backed away, Correa returned to the Twins, with whom he spent 2022, via a six-year, $200 million deal that has vesting and club options that could reach a maximum value of $270 million over 10 years.

While Correa’s current woes aren’t related to those previous concerns, the fact does remain that he’s had a hard time staying on the field. He’s topped 150 games only once, playing 153 as a 21-year-old in 2016, and averaged just 116 games in the five non-pandemic seasons since. What still appears to be a Hall of Fame career in the making thanks to his excellent play at a young age — early in his age-28 season, he’s already tied for 34th in JAWS at the position, 10 spots ahead of Omar Vizquel, and could pass the likes of Miguel Tejada and Nomar Garciaparra by the time he’s 30 — can only withstand so many roadblocks on the way to Cooperstown.

If Correa winds up on the IL, he’ll fall short of 150 games again. Even if he misses a comparatively short amount of time — six of the 13 stints were 20 days or fewer — that’s a blow to the Twins, who at 26–24 lead the AL Central by three games but have been in a slide lately. After going 17–12 in March and April, they’re 9–12 this month and had lost three in a row and five out of six before beating the Giants, 7–1, on Wednesday. Kyle Farmer started at shortstop, as he had done on Tuesday and April 9–12, when Correa missed four games due to back spasms. Even with those outages, Correa entered Thursday tied with Byron Buxton for the team lead in plate appearances (192) and 41 innings ahead of any other Twin in defensive innings (376.1).

That said, Correa has been off to a slow start, hitting just .213/.302/.396 with six homers and a 94 wRC+, though lately he had been trending upwards, with a .227/.326/.453 (114 wRC+) line in May after a dismal .202/.283/.351 (77 wRC+) line in April. His numbers have improved notably since the point just over two weeks ago when he had a .185 batting average and conceded, “I’d boo myself, too, with the amount of money I’m making if I’m playing like that and I’m in the stands.”

Correa’s .244 xBA and .410 xSLG suggest his overall numbers should be at least a bit better. On Monday, Esteban Rivera examined the shortstop’s early-season struggles, pointing out that his Statcast percentile rankings — 67th for hard-hit rate, 80th for barrel rate, 94th for maximum exit velocity, with only a 50th percentile for average exit velo out of the ordinary — offer reassurance that he’s still hitting the ball hard. He’s hitting to the opposite field more often (32.8%, well above his career 27,1%), though Rivera was able to tease out of the data the likelihood that a flatter swing and contact deeper within the strike zone are contributing to less impactful contact even when pulling the ball — a matter of timing, but probably a transient one.

The whole piece is worth a read. One thing I will note is that Correa’s oppo/pull imbalance was really an April thing (30.8% pull rate, 45.8% oppo) that had disappeared this month (47.2% pull, 15.1% oppo). Here’s a look at his rolling 15-game rates over the past two seasons:

And here’s a look at his rolling xwOBA:

Beyond his performance, Correa’s injury comes at a particularly inopportune time for the Twins. Second baseman Jorge Polanco, utilityman Nick Gordon, and corner outfielders Trevor Larnach and Max Kepler are all on the 10-day IL, and none has a clear timetable to return. Kepler and Polanco both have left hamstring strains, though both are considered mild. Larnach is battling pneumonia. Gordon is out with a fractured right tibia sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg and will be down for quite awhile. Additionally, Joey Gallo missed Wednesday’s game due to left hamstring soreness but is hoping to avoid an IL stint.

In Correa’s absence, the Twins are likely to continue rolling with Farmer, who’s currently hitting .274/.326/.405 (105 wRC+) and has split his time between third base, second base, and shortstop. The Twins acquired the versatile 32-year-old from the Reds with the belief that he would be their shortstop this year after Correa opted out of his contract, one year into the three-year, $105.3 million deal he signed shortly after the lockout ended in March 2022.

Given the slew of injuries, it’s worth noting that as of next Monday, Royce Lewis will be eligible for activation. The first pick of the 2017 draft tore his right ACL for the second time in a year and a half last June, just 12 games into his first stint in the majors (and three innings into his first major league appearance in center field), during which he hit an impressive .300/.317/.550 in 41 PA. While it’s tantalizing to imagine the Twins taking the wraps off of a player who placed 55th on our Top 100 Prospects list this spring, Lewis has just eight games of his rehab stint under his belt, the last six at Triple-A St. Paul, and while he’s hitting .333/.375/.700 through 32 PA, the Twins don’t sound inclined to rush him back. “We’ll see what he’s doing when the rehab assignment comes to an end and we have to make a decision, or whenever that time is when he’s physically and repetition-wise ready,” Baldelli said. More, via TwinCities.com:

“If Byron Buxton goes on the IL, the first day Byron Buxton is ready to come back, he’ll be back — and he’ll be hitting second or third or fourth. Correa, something similar,” Baldelli said. “But Royce, I can’t put Royce or any young player in that same type of conversation.

“He’s playing well right now, I think he’s swinging the bat well. He’s physically doing just as we would have hoped.”

If Correa does require an IL stint, obviously that increases the likelihood of Lewis turning up in the near future. In the meantime, the Twins have a difficult stretch of games ahead of them, with five of their next six series against teams with winning records: the Blue Jays (six games), Rays, Astros, and Brewers. The other is against the Guardians, who are just 21–28 and 4.5 games out of first in the AL Central but are probably the biggest threat to Minnesota in the division. If they’re lucky, the Twins will have Correa’s help for at least some of that.

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my weekly chat!

2:01	Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece today on the Yankees DFAing Aaron Hicks https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-have-finally-cut-bait-on-aaron…

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Dodgers’ rotation mess in the wake of injuries to Dustin May and Julio Urías https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-dustin-may-and-julio-urias-lea…

2:02	Jay Jaffe: And last Friday I had a piece on Manny Machado’s injury and struggles that was published prior to his going on the IL https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-padres-offense-is-broken-and-so-is…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: I may revisit that one, there are a couple of loose ends. Anyway, on with the show…

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As contractual blunders go, the seven-year, $70 million extension to which the Yankees signed Aaron Hicks in February 2019 is hardly the worst of general manager Brian Cashman’s 26-season tenure. It’s not even the franchise’s worst contract to an outfielder during the 2010s, not when Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal for more than twice that amount was still on the books when the Yankees extended Hicks. As with Ellsbury, however, Hicks’ ongoing series of injuries left the Yankees hamstrung and prevented the switch-hitting center fielder from playing to the potential he’d once shown. On Saturday, the team finally cut bait, designating the 33-year-old for assignment with more than two full seasons remaining on his deal.

Hicks started just five games in center field this year, along with 15 in left field, but he came into the season unclear about his role, and lately his playing time was on the wane. With the return of center fielder Harrison Bader from an oblique strain that cost him all of April, Hicks had made just two spot starts in middle pasture and one in left since May 10, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jake Bauers filling the latter spot, though not to any great effect. No matter Hicks’ role, he was unable to provide much of an offensive spark, hitting just .188/.263/.261 with one homer and a 49 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances. His 2% barrel rate and 22.4% hard-hit rate both placed in single-digit percentiles among batters with at least 70 PA, and his xwOBA is the majors’ lowest at that cutoff:

Hicks actually had his first three-hit game of the season in last Thursday’s 4–2 win over the Blue Jays, in his penultimate game as a Yankee; that output matched his previous hit total for May, spread over nine games and 23 PA. But even with that big game, Yankees left fielders ranked dead last in the majors with a 63 wRC+ through Sunday, though Hicks only accounted for a little less than one-third of the plate appearances there:

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No sooner had the Dodgers surged to the NL’s best record with a 14–2 run keyed by the return of Will Smith than the wheels started falling off their rotation. Over a seven-game span that began on May 15, their starters eked out just 25.2 innings, only twice lasting five frames. Not only was the bullpen tapped to the extreme, but Clayton Kershaw also made dubious personal history with a pair of early exits, and both Dustin May and Julio Urías landed on the injured list. The whole mess is forcing the organization to test its depth at a less-than-optimal time.

For starters, this isn’t what you want:

For the week, Los Angeles starters were cuffed for a 5.96 ERA and 5.05 FIP in those 25.2 innings, and the team’s overtaxed relievers were lit up for a 6.99 ERA and 5.73 FIP in 29 appearances totaling 37.1 innings. Because the Dodgers’ league-best offense bashed out 40 runs in those seven games, they managed to go 3–4, but their three-game division lead over the Diamondbacks was cut in half, and at 29–19, they fell behind the Braves (29–17), whom they’ll face for three games in Atlanta starting on Monday, for the NL’s best record. Read the rest of this entry »

After a season in which he led the NL in WAR and finished second in the MVP voting, Manny Machado was supposed to be right in the middle of the Padres’ takeover of the NL West. Instead, he’s off to a subpar start for a stumbling, sub-.500 team, and now he’s added injury to those insults. Manager Bob Melvin revealed on Wednesday that Machado has been diagnosed with a fractured metacarpal in his left hand and may need a stint on the injured list.

The 30-year-old third baseman was hit by a slider from the Royals’ Brad Keller in the second inning on Monday night, and while he remained in the game, he was replaced by pinch-hitter Rougned Odor in the fourth inning and didn’t play on either Tuesday or Wednesday; the Padres had Thursday off. Initial x-rays did not show the break, but CAT and MRI scans taken on Tuesday revealed that he had suffered a hairline fracture of his third metacarpal.

That revelation was only part of a dark day for the Padres, as they dropped the rubber match of their series against Kansas City, 4–3, and heard their share of boos from the 32,416 fans at Petco Park. They didn’t lose for lack of opportunity, going just 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position and 0-for-3 with the bases loaded. They’ve lost nine of their last 12, including five out of six to the Dodgers, and fallen from 17–15, one game behind Los Angeles in the NL West, to 20–24, 7.5 games back. Their odds of winning the NL West have fallen from 55.4% as of Opening Day to 37.8% before the skid to 12.9% as of Friday morning; their 41.6-point drop in their odds of winning the division is the majors’ largest, and their 23.4-point drop in their odds of reaching the playoffs — from a season-opening 85.3% to 61.9% — is second only to the Cardinals’ 26.6-point drop among NL teams. Read the rest of this entry »

Shohei Ohtani had a weird night in Baltimore on Monday, at times spectacular and at times unsettling. As a hitter, he went 4-for-5 with a huge three-run homer and three runs scored in the Angels’ 9-5 win. As a pitcher, he matched a career high by serving up three homers and allowing five runs in seven innings, continuing a string of shaky outings. One can’t blame the guy for having some mixed emotions.

Ohtani the pitcher was not at his best, yielding a two-run homer to Adam Frazier in the second inning, erasing a 1-0 lead. He walked Jorge Mateo to lead off the second inning, then allowed a two-run homer to Anthony Santander, costing him a 3-2 lead. By the time he got around to giving up his third homer of the night, he at least had a 9-4 lead and the bases empty in the fifth inning when Cedric Mullins took him over the wall; he would retire seven of the eight batters he faced after that to end his night on the mound. Read the rest of this entry »