Noah Syndergaard’s return to New York on Tuesday night did not go well. In his first start in the Big Apple since signing with the Angels last November, the 29-year-old righty gave up five runs and didn’t make it out of the third inning as his team extended its losing streak to six games via a 9–1 thrashing at the hands of the Yankees. After missing nearly all of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, a pitcher who was the game’s hardest-throwing starter is in the process of reinventing himself, but the results have been rather uneven.

Syndergaard agreed to a one-year, $21 million deal with the Angels last November, a day before the deadline for him to accept or reject the $18.4 million qualifying offer he received from the Mets. He missed all of the 2020 season after tearing his UCL in March and then made just two one-inning starts last year following setbacks in his rehab — first a bout of inflammation in his right elbow in late May, then a positive COVID-19 test in late August — so it would not have been a surprise for him to stay in Queens on a one-year deal and rebuild his value. And while Syndergaard had interest from multiple suitors, some of them willing to sign him to a multi-year deal despite his long absence, he told reporters that he was intrigued by the Angels’ plan to keep him healthy. Via MLBcom’s Rhett Bollinger:

“It was a no-brainer once I had that sitdown meeting with Perry,” Syndergaard said Friday. “He had a really in-depth plan of attack to get me back to where I was in 2015, ’16 and ’18. Not pitching for two years, he had a great game plan that I’m 100% confident in that’s gonna keep me healthy and allow me to flourish and blossom to my true potential.”

The idea of pitching in a six-man rotation appealed to Syndergaard, as it’ll help keep his innings total at a manageable level in his first full season back from his elbow surgery. The Angels utilize the six-man rotation to make room for two-way star Shohei Ohtani, who stayed mostly healthy throughout the 2021 season while making 23 starts and throwing 130 1/3 innings.

Syndergaard said his innings total will be limited next season, but he didn’t have a total in mind just yet.

For that stretch that Syndergaard mentioned, he was one of the top pitchers in baseball… when he was available. From 2015 to ’18, only Clayton Kershaw outdid Syndergaard’s 2.66 FIP; only Kershaw, teammate Jacob deGrom, and Max Scherzer beat his 2.93 ERA; and only eight pitchers had a higher strikeout-walk differential than his 21.6% (27.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate). Syndergaard’s 14.4 WAR for that period ranked “only” 15th because he threw just 518.1 innings in that span, the majors’ 71st-highest total. A strained latissimus dorsi limited him to just seven starts and 30.1 innings in 2017 (who can forget his refusal to take an MRI for shoulder and biceps discomfort, followed by a 1.1-inning start and then a nearly five-month absence?), and then he missed nearly seven weeks in 2018 due to a strained ligament in his right index finger. Read the rest of this entry »

When the National League adopted the designated hitter for good as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Mets figured to be among the Senior Circuit’s top beneficiaries given their stockpile of defensively limited hitters at corner positions. Within that group, Dominic Smith appeared most likely to take advantage of the extra spot in the lineup, whether he was the DH or played the field while someone else did, effectively giving him a do-over after a miserable, injury-marred 2021 season. It hasn’t worked out that way, however, so on Tuesday, the Mets optioned the struggling Smith to Triple-A Syracuse.

The 26-year-old Smith is hitting just .186/.287/.256 (67 wRC+) and has yet to homer through his first 101 plate appearances, a showing that’s a step down even from last year’s limp .244/.304/.363 (86 wRC+) line, which at least featured 10 home runs in 493 PA. That said, where Smith’s dreadful defensive work in left field (-3.8 UZR, -5 DRS, -9 OAA in just 859.2 innings) dragged last year’s WAR down to -1.0, this year he’s been kept out of the outfield, starting 14 games at first base — where he’s more or less an average defender by the metrics — and another eight at DH, leaving him at exactly 0.0 WAR on the year, so there’s that.

In a major league career that’s covered all or part of six seasons, Smith has rarely found middle ground. Chosen as the 11th overall pick out of a Gardena, California high school in 2013, he reached the majors four years later, but in 49 games that year and 56 in ’18, he hit just .210/.259/.406 (78 wRC+) in 332 PA, with 14 home runs but not much else. His conditioning was an issue — the six-foot first baseman reportedly weighed as much as 260 pounds, 21 above his currently-listed weight — and so was sleep apnea. Smith was diagnosed with the condition while at Double-A Binghamton in 2016 but had stopped sleeping with his CPAP mask after a year; he didn’t get enough rest and often struggled with his stamina and concentration.

After taking steps to address both issues, Smith was much improved in 2019, hitting a robust .282/.355/.525 (134 wRC+). However, he had two problems: first, 2016 second-round pick Pete Alonso, the team’s top prospect, won the first base job and hit 53 homers en route to All-Star and Rookie of the Year honors; and second, Smith suffered a stress reaction in his left foot and made just one plate appearance after July 27, a walk-off three-run homer against the Braves on September 29. That impressive line spanned just 197 PA; Alonso’s presence led to Smith starting just eight games at first plus 27 in left field while coming off the bench 54 times, 37 of those as a pinch-hitter.

The pandemic-shortened 2020 season brought the DH to the NL on a full-time basis, which opened up a path to everyday play for Smith. Starting 22 times at first base (17 with Alonso DHing), 21 in left field (eep), and five at DH — Robinson Canó made 13 starts there, J.D. Davis 12 — he thrived, hitting .316/.377/.616 with 10 homers. His slugging percentage and 166 wRC+ both placed fourth in the league. Finally, he was living up to his billing. Read the rest of this entry »

The White Sox have spent the first two months of the season meandering around .500 due to injuries and underperformance. Over the long holiday weekend, they offered reminders of both issues, first designating struggling starter Dallas Keuchel for assignment and then losing Tim Anderson to a groin strain. With Lance Lynn likely to return from a knee injury within the next couple of weeks, the rotation should remain a source of strength for the defending AL Central winners, but Anderson’s absence looms large in a lineup that’s missing several other key players and struggling to score runs.

The 34-year-old Keuchel had pitched poorly this season, with a 7.88 ERA and 6.20 FIP. He’s averaged just four innings per start, walked hitters at the same rate as which he struck them out (12.2%), and served up a career-high 1.69 homers per nine despite being one of the game’s top groundballers. He appeared to be righting the ship with a pair of solid starts against Red Sox and Yankees earlier this month, allowing two runs in 11 innings against the pair on May 8 and May 14, respectively, but both teams pummeled him upon getting a second look, with damage totaling 12 runs in six innings on May 21 (Yankees) and May 26 (Red Sox).

The White Sox signed Keuchel to a three-year, $55.5 million deal in December 2019, and he pitched well enough the following season (1.99 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.8 WAR) to place fifth in the AL Cy Young voting. But last year, even while the team ran away in the division race, he was little more than an innings-eater, pitching to a 5.28 ERA and 5.23 FIP in 162 innings and being left off the Division Series roster. Last year’s Statcast expected numbers (xAVG, xSLG, xwOBA, xERA) were actually worse than this year’s numbers:

Looking back, Keuchel’s 2020 expected numbers contained some warnings that his season wasn’t nearly as good as his ERA or even his FIP suggested. His results on his cutter, in particular, were way out of line with his expected results:

Note that those odd 2020 expected results, which no doubt owe something to the small sample, bore much closer resemblance to his xBA and xSLG for the following year than to his actual AVG and SLG from ’20. Long story short, Keuchel came out smelling like roses when his overall wOBA allowed was 58 points below his xwOBA, but when his barrel rate more than doubled and his wOBA rose 62 points above his xwOBA in 2022, he was out of a job. Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers are atop the NL Central thanks in large part to a rotation that has ranked among the game’s best, but the team’s postseason hopes took a hit this week with the news that righty Freddy Peralta will miss “a significant amount of time” due to a posterior shoulder strain. Milwaukee, which is additionally dealing with multiple injuries in its lineup, believes that Peralta will avoid surgery and return this season, but his loss is a disappointment given the 25-year-old’s recent return to form.

Peralta left Sunday’s start against the Nationals after three-plus innings due to tightness in his left shoulder. He failed to retire any of the three batters he faced in the fourth inning, and all three came around to score, the last two on reliever Brent Suter’s watch along with three others. The five runs that Peralta was charged with were as many as he had allowed over his previous five starts.

Indeed, Peralta had been on a roll. After starting the season by allowing nine runs in seven innings in his first two turns, he went on the aforementioned five-start run. In 28.2 innings, he struck out 38 (a 34.2% rate) and walked six (5.4%) without allowing a single homer, a run capped by his seven-inning, two-hit, 10-strikeout game against the Braves on May 16. Granted, the competition he faced during that strech wasn’t fierce, as the Phillies, Pirates, Reds (twice), and Braves are all below .500, and only Philadelphia has a team wRC+ higher than 94, but such is the schedule of an NL Central contender.

Peralta underwent an MRI on Monday, which revealed the strain. The Brewers expect the injury will heal with rest, but it will take some time. “He will be back this season but it’s going to be a lengthy absence,” manager Craig Counsell told reporters on Monday. “We’re confident that there’s gonna be no aftereffects to this thing but it’s going to take a while to heal and then build it back up.”

Through the ups and downs of his season so far, Peralta’s ERA is a gaudy 4.42, but among the 66 NL pitchers with at least 30 innings through Monday (the cutoff point for all stats here unless otherwise noted), his 2.10 FIP was the league’s lowest, his 0.23 homers per nine ranked third (teammate Adrian Houser was first at 0.21), his 1.3 WAR and 30.3% strikeout rate were sixth, his 22.4% strikeout-walk differential was seventh, and his 2.88 xERA was 14th.

Those peripherals are in line with the All-Star campaign he put up last season. After three years of careful workload management — a span during which he struck out 258 in 192.2 innings but never threw over 85 innings in a season — Peralta broke out with career highs of 27 starts and 144.1 innings in 2021. Among NL pitchers with at least 140 innings, his 2.81 ERA placed sixth and his 3.12 FIP was seventh. His 33.6% strikeout rate was third behind only teammate Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer, and his 24.0% strikeout-walk differential was good for fourth behind that pair and Aaron Nola. Only a late-season bout of shoulder inflammation, for which Peralta spent 15 days on the injured list and had a few shortened starts on either side, put a damper on his strong campaign and prevented him from down-ballot consideration in the Cy Young voting. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals are only second in the NL Central right now, but they’ve been having some fun lately. On back-to-back Sundays, they sent elder statesmen (and likely future Hall of Famers) to the mound to close out lopsided games — first Albert Pujols against the Giants and then Yadier Molina against the Pirates. What’s more, the Cardinals were on top in both of those games by double-digit scores, placing the pair in a rare subset within the annals of position players pitching.

That’s not the only interesting recent development when it comes to those accidental moundsmen. But as it’s been awhile since I last delved into the topic, it’s a good place to start.

So let’s set the wayback machine to May 15, the night that the Cardinals faced the Giants in St. Louis for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast. With lefty Carlos Rodón on the mound for San Francisco, the 42-year-old Pujols, who returned to the nest this spring after a decade-long run with the Angels and, briefly, the Dodgers, was in the lineup. Though righties are still a problem, he’s ably served as a platoon designated hitter against southpaws; to date he’s hit .227/.329/.439 (125 wRC+). On this night, Pujols and company went to town on Rodón, scoring nine runs over the first four frames, with eight of them charged to the starter, and the veteran slugger collecting a double and an RBI single within that onslaught. The Cardinals kept scoring, adding two runs apiece in the fifth, sixth, and seventh; by the end of the eighth, they led 15–2. Read the rest of this entry »

Summarizing the life’s work of Roger Angell — who lived for 101 years and covered baseball for 56 of them, doing it better than anyone has — was such a daunting task that I knew even before I started writing my tribute that I would need a little help from my friends. So I asked a small handful writers and editors within easy reach to share a few of their favorite Angell pieces with me and our readers.

Some of these pieces were cited within my tribute and mentioned multiple times within my informal polling, so as the responses came in, I nudged others for some deeper cuts, and limited myself to those as well. Many if not most of these pieces are behind the New Yorker’s paywall, but you could do worse than subscribe. Nearly all of them are collected in the seminal volumes that introduced so many of us to Angell’s work, namely The Summer Game (1972), Five Seasons (1977), Late Innings (1982), and Season Ticket (1988), with a few collected within the anthologies Once More Around the Park (1991) and Game Time (2003), and his final book, This Old Man: All in Pieces (2015).

The roster of contributors, alphabetically (with links to some additional Angell-related content): Lindsey Adler, staff writer for The Athletic; Alex Belth, founder of Bronx Banter and The Stacks Reader; Joe Bonomo, author of No Place I Would Rather Be: Roger Angell and a Life in Baseball Writing; Jason Fry, blogger at Faith and Fear in Flushing; Ben Lindbergh, senior editor at The Ringer and Effectively Wild co-host; Meg Rowley, FanGraphs managing editor and Effectively Wild co-host; Susan Slusser, San Francisco Chronicle Giants beat writer and past BBWAA president; Emma Span, enterprise editor at The Athletic; and John Thorn, official historian of Major League Baseball. Thank you to all of these folks for their timely submissions. Read the rest of this entry »

Judging by the tributes that poured forth on the occasion of his death at the grand age of 101 years old on Friday, there’s a solid chance that Roger Angell — a man who bore first-hand witness to Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, and Mike Trout — was your favorite baseball writer’s favorite baseball writer, even though he was never a full-time baseball scribe at all. Unburdened by the daily deadlines of the beat reporter, the competition for scoops among the national writers, or (to use his term) the weight of objectivity, Angell instead mused at length in the pages of the New Yorker in a capacity that served as a sidelight to his longtime role as a fiction writer and editor. Though his frame of reference stretched so far back that he spotted Ruth walking around Manhattan as a child, and spoke of Napoleon Lajoie with his father, he didn’t take up writing about baseball until age 40. He reported, but with a twist: “I’m reporting about myself, as a fan as well as a baseball writer,” as he told Salon’s Steve Kettman in 2000.

With the luxuries of looser deadlines, greater space, and the ability to depart from sportswriting conventions, Angell filed eloquent and erudite essays a handful of times every season, writing about the year’s winners and losers, its superstars and promising newcomers, its sunsetting old-timers, and its zeitgeist as experienced from his vantage as a privileged outsider. Over the course of six decades that took him from man-in-the-seats dispatches to deep explorations of the game’s intricacies with its master craftsmen, he assembled a body of work — primarily collected in The Summer Game (1972), Five Seasons (1977), Late Innings (1982), Season Ticket (1988), and Game Time (2003) but continuing as late as his 2015 collection, This Old Man: All in Pieces — that is unrivaled, revered, and beloved.

“I wanted to concentrate not just on the events down on the field but on their reception and results,” wrote Angell in the introduction to The Summer Game. “I wanted to pick up the feel of the game as it happened to the people around me. Right from the start, I was terribly lucky, because my first year or two in the seats behind first or third coincided with the birth and grotesque early sufferings of the Mets, which turned out to be the greatest fan story of all.” Read the rest of this entry »

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat!

2:02	Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece up today on the Blue Jays infield’s underachievement this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-infield-has-yet-to-soar/. And I had a piece about Mookie Betts heating up a couple days ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-betts-is-mostly-fine/

2:04

Jay Jaffe: I’ve also got a 5 1/2 year old who just came home from school with a fever after getting Not Enough Sleep last night — thankfully everybody in the household has tested negative in the past 24 hours, which is a start — but we’re going to see how long I can push this chat without interruptions. Please bear with me.

2:07

Jay Jaffe: They should probably give him a break from closing games until he starts pitching better; he’s allowed a run in each of his past four outings. I haven’t looked at his numbers closely, but I do wonder about whether his release point is off, which is something i noted in connection with last year’s struggles https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapmans-nosedive-is-dragging-the-…

Read the rest of this entry »

At 20-18, the Blue Jays are already eight games back in a division that they were projected to win. While they don’t lack for reasons as to why they’ve yet to take full flight, an infield that has yet to live up to high expectations is a significant factor. On the left side, Matt Chapman hasn’t found his footing since arriving from Oakland, and Bo Bichette has been in a replacement-level funk. Cavan Biggio, who was expected to platoon at second base after being bumped off third by Chapman’s arrival, has not only lost his job to Santiago Espinal (who’s been very good) but on Monday was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo after coming off the COVID-19 injured list. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has yet to replicate last year’s MVP-caliber form.

Guerrero is hitting .284/.368/.470 for a 142 wRC+, which while down 24 points from last year’s AL-leading mark, is still plenty potent. Even for a team that has just three other regulars with a wRC+ of 100 or better — namely center fielder George Springer (139), catcher/DH Alejandro Kirk (100), and Espinal (125) — he’s far from the Blue Jays’ biggest problem, and in the interest of keeping this article short of a novella, we’ll save any analysis of him for another day. On the other hand, Bichette (.242/.283/.363, 86 wRC+) and Chapman (.185/.272/.362, 84 wRC+), while not the offense’s least productive regulars — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (74 wRC+), Teoscar Hernández (61), and Raimel Tapia (53 wRC+) have been worse — were expected to rank among the majors’ best at their respective positions; the former was sixth among shortstops in our preseason positional power rankings series, the latter seventh. Read the rest of this entry »

When Mookie Betts scuffled through the first couple weeks of the 2022 season, the Dodgers and their fans had cause for concern. The 29-year-old right fielder was coming off the worst season of his eight-year major league career, one in which he was beset by injuries. With well over $300 million still coming his way over the next two decades (a good chunk of which is deferred), this seemed like an inopportune time for him to demonstrate that he was already well into his decline.

One four-week (and counting) hot streak later, it appears that reports of Betts’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. His overall numbers don’t jump off the page due to his slow start, but in this year’s difficult offensive environment, his .263/.354/.482 line is good for a 141 wRC+, which ranks 14th in the NL, and his 1.6 WAR is tied for sixth. He’s been particularly hot lately, hitting .360/.429/.840 with three doubles and three homers over his past six games.

Betts may have created some unrealistic expectations after being acquired by the Dodgers in a protracted five-player blockbuster in February 2020. He proceeded to ink a 12-year, $365 million deal in July, then help his new team win its first championship in 32 years — and his second in three. In the pandemic-shortened campaign, he hit .292/.366/.562 for a 147 wRC+, his highest mark aside from his 2018 AL MVP-winning campaign (185). His 2.9 WAR placed third in the league, he finished second in the NL MVP voting, and he put on a tour de force during the postseason, showing off his skills at the plate, on the bases, and in the field on a nightly basis, right up through the World Series-clinching Game 6 in which he set up the tying run with a scorching double that was just the Dodgers’ second hit of the night, sped home with the go-ahead run on an infield grounder, and added an insurance run via a late homer. Read the rest of this entry »