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Chin Music comes a day early this week due to a scheduled COVID-19 vaccine dose. The co-host chair is considering claiming permanent residency in New York as Sports Illustrated Senior Writer Stephanie Apstein joins me to babble about baseball. We begin by discussing the Dodgers/Padres rivalry, the upside-down AL Central standings, using a home run derby as a tie breaker, and as happens on most shows, a quick check-in on the CBA situation. Then we are joined by Nick Groke, Rockies beat writer for The Athletic, who provides a frank and entertaining discussion of what’s going on in Colorado, from the resignation of GM Jeff Bridich to where we go from here. We finish up with emails on Zack Greinke and how the Astros scandal effects players’ Hall of Fame chances, before delving into Stephanie’s upcoming trip (maybe, probably) to Tokyo to cover the Olympic Games. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Mint Mile.

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Let me get this out of the way: Nick Madrigal is really good at baseball. Or at least, he’s really good at one aspect of it, and that aspect is one of the most important ones. Madrigal’s bat control is borderline otherworldly. Per FanGraphs’ measurements, Madrigal entered Sunday’s contest with a 100% in-zone contact rate. 100%! That’s zero swings and misses in the zone. Nearly 20 games into the season, that’s a remarkable achievement. Arguably more impressive is his 90.2% contact rate out of the zone. When he chases, he still hits the ball. Currently, only 31 qualified hitters have a higher in-zone contact rate than Madrigal has when leaving it. In terms of putting the bat on the baseball, Madrigal is a pure 80. It’s an amazing ability, and it’s one reason that, barring injury, it’s easy to see him hitting .300 or better for the next decade or more.

The question is how valuable can Madrigal be beyond his remarkable ability to make contact. He’s the ultimate “empty average” guy due to an aggressive approach and a complete lack of power. Entering Sunday’s game, Madrigal is a .327 hitter in his young, 47-game career. He has a .757 OPS to go along with that. Again good, but not as good as you’d expect from someone challenging for a batting title. ZIPS sees the weird combination of plusses and minuses and has Madrigal peaking at 2.3 WAR with a 101 OPS+. In order to go from good to really good, Madrigal is going to have to either walk more or hit balls harder, and he has a harder path than most in terms of making either happen.

Scouts call players like Madrigal “early action” players. Swing at a lot of pitches, make a ton of contact. That’s Madrigal in a nutshell. He’s not going to walk, and he’s not going to strike out. In fact, he’s going to do those two things less often than anyone in the game. We’re all familiar with walk and strikeout percentages, but what happens when we combine them? Let’s call it Early Action Percentage:

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This week, the co-host chair heads back to New York as Jake Mintz of Cespedes Family BBQ steps away from his obsession with obscure professional cycling to spend an afternoon talking about baseball. We begin by discussing hot teams (that’s Oakland), hot players (that’s Corbin Burnes), bad bullpens (that’s the Phillies — again), and the first baby steps in the CBA talks. Then we are joined by Charles Star, one of my favorite podcasters and the most entertaining legal analyst in the world, who explains baseball’s nearly century old anti-trust exemption. From there, it’s the final segment, where we go through emails, think about cricket, and delve into Jake’s remarkable path in baseball. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Event Horizon Jazz Quartet.

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Ian Anderson was one of the better stories of the 2020 season. Entering the year as the No. 3 prospect in the Braves’ system and the No. 44 prospect in all of baseball, he was seen as a future mid-rotation starter who could help quickly. He did just that and more: Added to the rotation in late August, Anderson finished seventh in the NL Rookie of the Year voting despite making just six starts. He put up a 1.95 ERA in those outings, and while the supporting data said he wasn’t the Cy Young-level pitcher that number might suggest, he was still awfully good. He was even better in the postseason, allowing just two runs over 18 innings, striking out 24 and giving up just 11 hits.

Anderson maintained his rookie eligibility entering 2021 and earned the No. 2 ranking in Atlanta’s system (Eric Longenhagen and I discussed putting him at No. 1 ahead of Cristian Pache) and the No. 13 spot in this year’s Top 100 list. He looked like the cornerstone of a young Braves rotation that would help lead them to National League East title contention.

His first start of the year was vintage Anderson (or at least as vintage as you can get for a guy who is still a rookie), as he gave up one run over five innings and struck out seven. His next two were far from it: 11 hits and seven runs allowed over 10.1 innings. Game score is far from a perfect measure, but it’s a simple and quick look at a start, and Anderson’s game scores of 47 and 45 in his last two outings represent the two worst marks of his career. This could be a blip, or there could be some tough luck in there. But a closer look at the data shows that this is more than just a randomly-generated bad run.

When asked to evaluate a pitcher not living up to expectations, these are the first three questions I try to answer.

• Without knowing anything internally, is there anything to worry about in terms of health?
• Has the pitcher changed anything in terms of usage and location?
• Has the pitcher seen his pitch shapes change due to alterations in his mechanics or spin rate?

The Health Question

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Let’s do it again, folks. This week, the co-host chair lands back in Brooklyn as Jay Jaffe makes time to yammer with me for two-plus hours. We start by figuring out how many games the Dodgers will win before discussing how today’s game creates a good environment for no-hitters and watching Jay count to 20. Then we are joined by special guest J.J. Cooper, the executive editor of Baseball America, who gives his reasons for being open-minded about baseball’s experimental rule changes in the minor and independent leagues. From there, it’s the final segment, where we dream about a few injury-free careers and consider an offer to become multi-millionaires before finishing off with British dramas and Fellini films. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening. Read the rest of this entry »

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The Cubs dropped their third straight game on Monday night in Milwaukee to fall to 4–6, and even that record feels like a miracle for them. Their crew of low-velo/command types in the rotation haven’t performed well, and the offense has been a non-factor with a miserable .164/.264/.321 line in 312 plate appearances; Chicago ranks last in baseball in all three triple-slash categories. Of the regular starters, just three are over the Mendoza line, only three have an on-base percentage over .300, and only three are slugging over .300. The end result is fewer than three runs per game, and even in a wide-open NL Central, that is just not going to cut it.

There are numerous rough starts to dissect on the North Side. But I want to focus on Javier Báez’s continued struggles, in terms of both approach and contact ability, and a future that grows cloudier by the game.

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On this episode, I’m joined by the eminently intelligent and charming Steven Goldman, who serves as my co-host for the week. We start with some hot takes on hot starts and socially gross restaurants. From there, we are joined by special guest Bradford William Davis of the New York Daily News to discuss the complicated political and economic issues behind MLB’s decision to move the All-Star game from Georgia to Colorado. As a bonuses, Bradford also attended the Rangers’ fan-packed home opener, so we spend some time on that as well. From there, it’s onto emails and all sorts of tangents. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for putting up with how damn long this thing has gotten.

Music by Interesting Time Gang.

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