The image you just scrolled past is a photograph of professional baseball player Bryce Harper. You might remember him from home runs like this 2019 walk-off grand slam or his rain-soaked, NLCS-clinching blast. Indeed, Harper has hit 288 regular-season home runs and another 11 in the playoffs since making his big league debut. Only nine players have hit more in that time. His career .519 slugging percentage ranks 12th among active qualified batters, and his .239 isolated power ranks 15th. His maximum exit velocity has been in the top 10% of the league for seven years straight. Long story short, this Harper guy is one of the most fearsome power hitters of his generation.

So why am I talking about a two-time MVP as if there’s any chance you aren’t familiar with his accomplishments? Well, as hard as it is to believe for an old-timer like me, millions of people around the world hadn’t even been born the last time Harper hit a home run. Granted, I doubt many of those babies between zero and 34 days old have found their way to FanGraphs just yet, but the point remains: 34 days is a long time. It’s the longest home run drought of Harper’s career. The last time he hit a home run, the Reds had the worst record in the National League and Shohei Ohtani ranked 21st on the combined WAR leaderboards. Five weeks later, the Reds sit on top of the NL Central and Ohtani is lapping the competition in WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, my colleague Ben Clemens wrote about Marcus Semien and his impressive durability. As Ben pointed out, Semien leads the majors in plate appearances over the last five seasons, which has helped him to be one of the most valuable players in the game despite his relative shortage of standout skills.

The most productive catcher during that same time period has been J.T. Realmuto, who leads his fellow backstops by more than 5 WAR. He’s also way ahead of the pack with 2,147 plate appearances; Willson Contreras ranks second with 1,879. On the defensive side, the Phillies catcher is similarly outpacing his peers. He has played 4,084 innings behind the dish, 397.2 more than Martín Maldonado in second place. That’s the equivalent of 44 full games, or Austin Hedges‘ 2023 season to date. Much like Semien, Realmuto encapsulates the popular aphorism “availability is the best ability.” He isn’t the best defender or the best offensive catcher, but he’s good at everything he does, and he does it more often than anyone else. Read the rest of this entry »

Jorge Soler has always had big power potential. His power was his carrying tool as a prospect, and he homered in his first big league plate appearance. Unfortunately, he’s had trouble making the most of his strength throughout his career. For years, Soler was an “if he can put it all together” kind of player. His raw power was enticing, but injuries and inconsistency kept getting in the way. From 2014 to ’18, he hit just 38 home runs in 307 games, a pace of 20 per 162.

Finally, in 2019, everything clicked. The 6-foot-4 slugger played all 162 games, walloping an AL-leading 48 home runs. He finished fifth in the league in slugging, third in isolated power, and 13th in wRC+. His wRC+ went up every month, and no player in baseball hit for more power over the final two months of the season. He lost the Silver Slugger at DH to an ageless Nelson Cruz, but all the same, Soler was finally living up to the hype. There was even talk of the Royals signing him to a long-term deal.

But that extension never came, and Soler’s performance over the rest of his Royals tenure dashed any dreams he might have had of a lucrative long-term contract. In 2020, his old problems came back to haunt him. He didn’t make the most of his power, hitting only eight home runs in 43 games, and injuries kept him off the field for several weeks in September. The following season started out even worse; in 95 games with Kansas City, he hit 13 home runs and posted a feeble 77 wRC+. At the trade deadline, the former home run king was sent to Atlanta for pennies on the dollar. Read the rest of this entry »

There are two predominant fastball types in the majors these days: the four-seamer and the sinker. The cutter usually gets categorized as a fastball too, and for some pitchers, like Corbin Burnes and Kenley Jansen, it certainly is one. Then again, most pitchers use their cutter as a secondary or tertiary offering, and the average cutter comes in at 89 mph; that’s closer to the average changeup than the average four-seamer. The cutter defies simple classification. Then there’s the split-finger fastball, which is nothing more than a misnomer. It’s an offspeed pitch, no doubt about it, and therefore “splitter” is the more widely accepted label nowadays.

So, back to those two fastballs. The four-seamer is essentially the “throw it as hard as you can” ball; if you hear someone use the generic term “fastball” to describe a particular pitch, this is the one they’re talking about. In terms of grip, a four-seamer isn’t all that different from the way any other fielder throws the baseball. The sinker, on the other hand, is a more specialized weapon. As the name suggests, it has more movement than a four-seam fastball, and it’s more useful for inducing weak contact than blowing the ball past the opposing batter. Yet, modern pitchers have been taking that “throw it as hard as you can” approach with their sinkers as well. Over the past four seasons, the average sinker is only 0.6 mph slower than the average four-seamer.

Thus far in 2023, 52 starting pitchers have crossed the 50-inning threshold while using both a four-seam fastball and a sinker at least 3% of the time. Of those 52, 83% throw both pitches within 1 mph of one another. All but two throw both pitches within 2 mph of one another. As you might have guessed, I’m here to write about the two exceptions, the two starting pitchers who throw their four-seamer and sinker nearly 3 mph apart: Shohei Ohtani and Dean Kremer. Read the rest of this entry »

A straw man, per the Cambridge Dictionary, is “an argument, claim, or opponent that is invented in order to win or create an argument.” The term can also refer to “someone, often an imaginary person, who is used to hide an illegal or secret activity.” The Strawman, without the space, is a nickname I like to use for Guardians center fielder Myles Straw, a man whose spectacular outfield defense is the stuff of imagination; his elite speed and flying leaps would have you believe he’s a comic book hero invented in order to win ballgames.

Perhaps the whole superhero nickname thing for great ballplayers has been done to death at this point, but then again, so has the whole superhero thing in general. If Marvel can keep pumping out movies, then I can keep pumping out nicknames. Besides, this comparison feels especially apt; Straw plays for the Guardians, after all.

From 2021 to ’22, Straw racked up 22 OAA, tied with Michael A. Taylor for most in the American League. He posted 5.1 WAR in 310 games, 14th among center fielders despite single-digit home run totals and an 81 wRC+. All the defensive metrics agreed that Straw was one of the best in the game; his 22 UZR ranked second among outfielders, and his 21 DRS ranked third. Baseball Prospectus rated him as the most valuable defensive player in baseball by DRP.

Then came 2023. If Straw were a superhero, this would be the point in his narrative arc when his powers come into question. Through 59 games in center field, he has a shocking -2 OAA. That puts him in the 21st percentile league-wide, just a year after he finished in the 98th. His -0.2 WAR ranks last among qualified outfielders, and somehow, his defense has been an even bigger liability than his offense so far. Suffice it to say, that’s a problem for a center fielder with a 71 wRC+.

This isn’t just an OAA issue, either. By UZR, Straw ranks among the bottom five outfielders in the majors, just ahead of Kyle Schwarber, arguably the worst defensive outfielder in the game. Straw’s -0.5 DRP is better than his UZR, and his +1 DRS is better still, but the overall point remains: His defense seems to have taken a big step back. None of the metrics see him as an elite defender this season, and only one has him above league average. The small sample size warning applies, but even so, this is a strange turn of events for a young player who has been the definition of consistency since joining the Guardians at the 2021 trade deadline:

My immediate assumption was that Straw must have gotten slower; perhaps he was playing through an unrevealed injury. But it doesn’t seem like his physical skills have taken a hit. Straw has been healthy and durable throughout his time in Cleveland, and at 28 years old, he still has years of youth ahead of him. His sprint speed and time to first base remain the same, and he’s tied for eighth in the AL with 14 bolts (any run above 30 ft/sec). Thanks to the handy racing tool at Baseball Savant, we can even watch Straw race his past self down the line. Here’s 2022 Straw compared to 2023… or maybe it’s the other way around. It’s hard to keep track when the difference is so inconsequential:

But while Straw is running as fast as ever, his outfielder jump, as measured by Statcast, is noticeably worse. It sat in the 67th percentile in 2021 and the 58th in ’22, and this year it’s fallen from the reds to the blues. To be fair, he has never had terrific jump numbers, and that hasn’t been a problem. Nearly all of his defensive stats were better in 2022 than ’21, despite his jump numbers worsening. Moreover, an outfielder doesn’t necessarily need great jumps if he can run as fast as Straw can. In some cases, it might even help a fielder to get a slightly slower start, as long as he takes advantage of that extra time to plan his route and uses his footspeed to compensate for the delayed reaction. Nevertheless, Straw’s declining outfielder jump in conjunction with his negative OAA is a worrisome combination:

What’s most upsetting of all is that we haven’t seen nearly as many highlight-reel catches from a man typically capable of filling SportsCenter’s Top Ten all on his own. A quick search of MLB Film Room turned up only three of Straw’s catches this year that warranted highlights. One is an Anthony Volpe flyout, which required Straw to cover a tremendous amount of ground from his initial position in shallow right-center to the warning track at the deepest part of Yankee Stadium. Still, Straw had plenty of time to get there — he’s practically jogging in the clip — and his little leap at the end was more for show than anything else:

The other two catches are almost identical to one another. A couple of liners from Jonathan Schoop and Avisaíl García allowed Straw to show off his wheels, and he makes a nice grab each time. Still, you’re not winning any Gold Gloves if this is the pièce de résistance of your highlight reel:

I’ve been reading FanGraphs long enough to know that good defense is about more than web gems, but in this case, Straw’s dearth of incredible catches is one of the major reasons his fielding metrics are so poor. In 2022, he made eight four- or five-star catches (those with a Statcast catch probability of 50% or lower). The year before, he made seven. So far in 2023, he has yet to make a single one. Furthermore, he only has one three-star catch (probability between 51–75%), which is even more surprising, given that he cleaned up on three-star catches last season, making 21 in 26 chances.

Let’s start by looking at the lack of five-star catches, because that’s the easiest to explain. As the name implies, these plays are few and far between. Only 16 players made more than one last season, and only 10 made more than two. It isn’t a cause for concern that Straw doesn’t have one yet; only a quarter of qualified outfielders do. He had two last season and another two the year before, and all four came after the All-Star break. In 2021, both of them came within two weeks of one another. If Straw doesn’t have any five-star catches by September, then it might be time to reassess, but for now, it’s nothing to worry about. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he made two in the next week, shooting his OAA up into positive territory.

As for the three- and four-star catches, Straw simply hasn’t had enough chances to make them. The charts below show his three- and four-star catch opportunities in 2022 and ’23 (via Baseball Savant):

His lone three-star catch in 2023 (the orange dot on the upper-right chart) was his running grab against García. The ball had a 70% catch probability, thereby earning him 0.3 of an out above average. The three-star opportunity he missed (circled in green) had a 65% catch probability, so missing it cost him 0.65 of an out. Statcast, however, clearly doesn’t have a perfect grasp of the intricacies of the Green Monster. This might have been a catchable ball in most stadiums, but there’s no way to blame Straw for missing this one:

Just as Straw will presumably make a five-star grab or two at some point down the line, he should also see more three- and four-star opportunities. The ones he catches will hopefully make up for the ones he’s missed so far.

Straw has also bumbled a few cans of corn this year, something he didn’t do at all in 2022. These misplays have had a sizeable impact on his OAA since their catch probabilities were so high, but only one was truly an indictment of his defensive skills. Two were high fly balls with a 99% catch probability that he lost amid a miscommunication with his infielders. They were bad plays to be sure, but not in a way that makes me worry about his defense going forward. Then there was this liner from Kris Bryant. It’s clear that Straw misread the ball, as he has to change his route last minute to get behind it. With a better read, it’s easily the second out of the inning:

It’s not a smart play, but the outcome was hardly disastrous. That was also the first and only ball with a catch probability between 90–95% that Straw has missed in his Guardians career. Slip-ups happen, even to the best defenders, and as the year goes on, those rare mistakes will be weighted less heavily in his overall numbers.

The catch opportunities (or lack thereof) that Straw has had so far might also explain his poor outfielder jump numbers. Outfielder jump measures a player’s initial movement on two-, three-, four-, and five-star catch opportunities. So far in 2023, Straw’s opportunities have skewed to the extremes. In particular, he has had significantly more five-star chances, and of those, 82% have had a catch probability of 5% or below:

That’s a high percentage of balls that are nearly uncatchable. On those plays, it stands to reason that a good outfielder might take the time he needs to get behind the ball and field it on a hop rather than going all out on the off chance he can make a diving grab. I watched all nine of Straw’s 5% catch opportunities this year, and lo and behold, I wouldn’t say he was actively trying to make the catch on any of them. But he also didn’t let a single one go past him, either. Only two of those balls went for more than a single: a double off the wall by Francisco Lindor, and a double to right-center by Triston Casas that could have been a triple if Straw weren’t there to cut it off:

More than almost any other player in baseball, Straw needs to be an elite defender to stick on a major league roster; his offense certainly isn’t keeping him employed. The Guardians, more than any other team in baseball, need Gold Glove defense from their center fielder; their league-worst offense certainly isn’t getting them to the playoffs. Thankfully, Straw’s poor metrics don’t portend a major defensive fall-off; he simply hasn’t the right chances to make his mark. The Strawman still has all the necessary tools in his fielding utility belt, and as the sample size increases, he should be just fine.

As far as ballplayers go, Chris Sale and Cal Quantrill don’t have a whole lot in common. Sale is an established star, with the resume and salary to prove it; Quantrill only recently completed his first full season as a starting pitcher. At his peak, Sale was the preeminent strikeout artist in baseball and arguably the best of all time; Quantrill has the lowest K-rate among qualified pitchers this season. Both have gone under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but while Quantrill has been the picture of health ever since, Sale has yet to return to his former glory.

This past Friday, these two dissimilar pitchers found themselves in the same boat when they landed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, just days before their respective clubs were due to face off in a three-game set. Shoulder inflammation is a vague descriptor, and the prognosis for it can vary widely. Sometimes a pitcher will only miss a couple of starts to let the pain subside, but in a worst-case scenario, shoulder problems can lead to season-ending surgery. There is no reason to believe, as of yet, that either Sale or Quantrill will need to go the surgical route, but it also seems unlikely that either will return as soon as the minimum 15 days are up. Sale will undergo further testing and might not have a proper diagnosis until this weekend. Quantrill, meanwhile, has stopped throwing altogether. Read the rest of this entry »

It seems like all of our coverage of the 2023 Diamondbacks here at FanGraphs has focused on the pitching, and it’s not hard to see why. Zac Gallen has looked phenomenal (at times historically so), Madison Bumgarner was abominable (eventually too abominable to roster), and the D-backs have given some intriguing young arms the chance to prove their worth in the big league rotation.

Yet all that being so, the real story of the 2023 Diamondbacks has been the offense. They lead the National League in hitting and rank third with 257 runs scored. They’re fourth in OBP, fourth in slugging percentage, and fifth in wRC+. By and large, the pitching staff has performed as expected – Gallen good, MadBum bad, everyone else somewhere in between – but the offense has been more potent than anyone could have envisioned.

It’s been a team effort in Arizona; among the nine Diamondbacks hitters with at least 100 PA, seven have been above-average at the plate. Corbin Carroll is off to the races. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has taken a massive step forward. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker have been predictably solid, while Gabriel Moreno and Pavin Smith are holding their own. Leading the way, however, has been none other than Geraldo Perdomo, who is pacing the club in OBP, wRC+, and WAR. What? Read the rest of this entry »

The Marlins were the subject of jokes aplenty this winter after they added two established second basemen, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, to a roster that already featured multiple capable keystone defenders. Yet all jokes aside, Kim Ng’s unconventional method of roster construction has worked out quite well thus far. Arraez leads all primary second basemen with a 151 wRC+, and his defense is tolerable as long as he keeps hitting. Meanwhile, Jazz Chisholm Jr., though currently on the IL, has adjusted well to center field, and Jon Berti and Joey Wendle have been an excellent defensive tandem at shortstop.

However, the second baseman the Marlins signed to play third is struggling terribly. Segura is slashing .200/.268/.236 (the rare .200/.200/.200 batting line, also known as a Paul Janish), and he is one of only five qualified hitters without a home run (an achievement known as a Reggie Willits). His 43 wRC+ ranks last in baseball, as does his .231 wOBA and .504 OPS. The only qualified hitter with a lower WAR is José Abreu, who has had an additional five games in which to be dreadful. Segura’s only saving grace is that he has hit well in 15 high-leverage plate appearances (.385 AVG, 134 wRC+), but even so, his -1.31 WPA is the worst in the National League.

The last qualified batter to finish with a wRC+ below 45 was Clint Barmes, who posted a 38 wRC+ in 2006. Since then, only five other players have even finished below 50; typically, hitters either improve as the year goes on, or they don’t get enough playing time to qualify. As for the handful who lasted a full season with such a feeble bat, the only one to have been an above-average hitter throughout the rest of his career was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. His 46 wRC+ in 2017 was a huge step down from his career 117 wRC+ to that point. Read the rest of this entry »

Win Probability Added isn’t a great measure of true talent – it’s influenced by too many factors outside a player’s control – but ultimately, the best players tend to have the highest WPAs. Last season, AL MVP Aaron Judge led all position players in WPA, while NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt finished on top in the Senior Circuit. The year before, it was AL MVP Shohei Ohtani who finished first overall and NL MVP Bryce Harper who paced the National League. Even in the early days of the 2023 season, the WPA leaderboard is a veritable who’s who of superstars and MVP contenders. Yordan Alvarez leads all position players with 2.42 WPA, while Ronald Acuña Jr. leads the NL with 2.18. Following closely behind in the AL is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with 2.12 WPA to his name.

After those three, only one other hitter has a WPA above 2.00 this year, and his name is rarely listed among the likes of Alvarez, Acuña, and Guerrero. In what will be his first full season, 27-year-old Jake Fraley has already notched 2.10 WPA for the Cincinnati Reds. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 season isn’t off to the best start for last year’s AL Cy Young finalists. Reigning winner Justin Verlander missed the first five weeks with a shoulder strain and now faces the unenviable task of rescuing an ailing Mets rotation. Runner-up Dylan Cease has had his moments but an equal number of surprisingly poor outings. Finally, third-place finisher Alek Manoah is struggling most of all. His ERA has doubled, his WAR is in the negatives, and his 1.28 K/BB ranks last among qualified major league pitchers.

Manoah’s slow start has been difficult to watch. Last season, at just 24 years old, he established himself as the ace of the Blue Jays’ staff, securing his first All-Star selection and earning the nod for Game One of the Wild Card Series. Six months later, he was awarded the Opening Day start, making him the youngest Opening Day starter in the American League. The analytics crowd (myself included) might have argued Kevin Gausman was the true no. 1 in Toronto, but the Blue Jays clearly chose Manoah, and it wasn’t hard to understand why: Read the rest of this entry »