The Strawman Fieldeth

A straw man, per the Cambridge Dictionary, is “an argument, claim, or opponent that is invented in order to win or create an argument.” The term can also refer to “someone, often an imaginary person, who is used to hide an illegal or secret activity.” The Strawman, without the space, is a nickname I like to use for Guardians center fielder Myles Straw, a man whose spectacular outfield defense is the stuff of imagination; his elite speed and flying leaps would have you believe he’s a comic book hero invented in order to win ballgames.

Perhaps the whole superhero nickname thing for great ballplayers has been done to death at this point, but then again, so has the whole superhero thing in general. If Marvel can keep pumping out movies, then I can keep pumping out nicknames. Besides, this comparison feels especially apt; Straw plays for the Guardians, after all.

From 2021 to ’22, Straw racked up 22 OAA, tied with Michael A. Taylor for most in the American League. He posted 5.1 WAR in 310 games, 14th among center fielders despite single-digit home run totals and an 81 wRC+. All the defensive metrics agreed that Straw was one of the best in the game; his 22 UZR ranked second among outfielders, and his 21 DRS ranked third. Baseball Prospectus rated him as the most valuable defensive player in baseball by DRP.

Then came 2023. If Straw were a superhero, this would be the point in his narrative arc when his powers come into question. Through 59 games in center field, he has a shocking -2 OAA. That puts him in the 21st percentile league-wide, just a year after he finished in the 98th. His -0.2 WAR ranks last among qualified outfielders, and somehow, his defense has been an even bigger liability than his offense so far. Suffice it to say, that’s a problem for a center fielder with a 71 wRC+.

This isn’t just an OAA issue, either. By UZR, Straw ranks among the bottom five outfielders in the majors, just ahead of Kyle Schwarber, arguably the worst defensive outfielder in the game. Straw’s -0.5 DRP is better than his UZR, and his +1 DRS is better still, but the overall point remains: His defense seems to have taken a big step back. None of the metrics see him as an elite defender this season, and only one has him above league average. The small sample size warning applies, but even so, this is a strange turn of events for a young player who has been the definition of consistency since joining the Guardians at the 2021 trade deadline:

My immediate assumption was that Straw must have gotten slower; perhaps he was playing through an unrevealed injury. But it doesn’t seem like his physical skills have taken a hit. Straw has been healthy and durable throughout his time in Cleveland, and at 28 years old, he still has years of youth ahead of him. His sprint speed and time to first base remain the same, and he’s tied for eighth in the AL with 14 bolts (any run above 30 ft/sec). Thanks to the handy racing tool at Baseball Savant, we can even watch Straw race his past self down the line. Here’s 2022 Straw compared to 2023… or maybe it’s the other way around. It’s hard to keep track when the difference is so inconsequential:

But while Straw is running as fast as ever, his outfielder jump, as measured by Statcast, is noticeably worse. It sat in the 67th percentile in 2021 and the 58th in ’22, and this year it’s fallen from the reds to the blues. To be fair, he has never had terrific jump numbers, and that hasn’t been a problem. Nearly all of his defensive stats were better in 2022 than ’21, despite his jump numbers worsening. Moreover, an outfielder doesn’t necessarily need great jumps if he can run as fast as Straw can. In some cases, it might even help a fielder to get a slightly slower start, as long as he takes advantage of that extra time to plan his route and uses his footspeed to compensate for the delayed reaction. Nevertheless, Straw’s declining outfielder jump in conjunction with his negative OAA is a worrisome combination:

What’s most upsetting of all is that we haven’t seen nearly as many highlight-reel catches from a man typically capable of filling SportsCenter’s Top Ten all on his own. A quick search of MLB Film Room turned up only three of Straw’s catches this year that warranted highlights. One is an Anthony Volpe flyout, which required Straw to cover a tremendous amount of ground from his initial position in shallow right-center to the warning track at the deepest part of Yankee Stadium. Still, Straw had plenty of time to get there — he’s practically jogging in the clip — and his little leap at the end was more for show than anything else:

The other two catches are almost identical to one another. A couple of liners from Jonathan Schoop and Avisaíl García allowed Straw to show off his wheels, and he makes a nice grab each time. Still, you’re not winning any Gold Gloves if this is the pièce de résistance of your highlight reel:

I’ve been reading FanGraphs long enough to know that good defense is about more than web gems, but in this case, Straw’s dearth of incredible catches is one of the major reasons his fielding metrics are so poor. In 2022, he made eight four- or five-star catches (those with a Statcast catch probability of 50% or lower). The year before, he made seven. So far in 2023, he has yet to make a single one. Furthermore, he only has one three-star catch (probability between 51–75%), which is even more surprising, given that he cleaned up on three-star catches last season, making 21 in 26 chances.

Let’s start by looking at the lack of five-star catches, because that’s the easiest to explain. As the name implies, these plays are few and far between. Only 16 players made more than one last season, and only 10 made more than two. It isn’t a cause for concern that Straw doesn’t have one yet; only a quarter of qualified outfielders do. He had two last season and another two the year before, and all four came after the All-Star break. In 2021, both of them came within two weeks of one another. If Straw doesn’t have any five-star catches by September, then it might be time to reassess, but for now, it’s nothing to worry about. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he made two in the next week, shooting his OAA up into positive territory.

As for the three- and four-star catches, Straw simply hasn’t had enough chances to make them. The charts below show his three- and four-star catch opportunities in 2022 and ’23 (via Baseball Savant):

His lone three-star catch in 2023 (the orange dot on the upper-right chart) was his running grab against García. The ball had a 70% catch probability, thereby earning him 0.3 of an out above average. The three-star opportunity he missed (circled in green) had a 65% catch probability, so missing it cost him 0.65 of an out. Statcast, however, clearly doesn’t have a perfect grasp of the intricacies of the Green Monster. This might have been a catchable ball in most stadiums, but there’s no way to blame Straw for missing this one:

Just as Straw will presumably make a five-star grab or two at some point down the line, he should also see more three- and four-star opportunities. The ones he catches will hopefully make up for the ones he’s missed so far.

Straw has also bumbled a few cans of corn this year, something he didn’t do at all in 2022. These misplays have had a sizeable impact on his OAA since their catch probabilities were so high, but only one was truly an indictment of his defensive skills. Two were high fly balls with a 99% catch probability that he lost amid a miscommunication with his infielders. They were bad plays to be sure, but not in a way that makes me worry about his defense going forward. Then there was this liner from Kris Bryant. It’s clear that Straw misread the ball, as he has to change his route last minute to get behind it. With a better read, it’s easily the second out of the inning:

It’s not a smart play, but the outcome was hardly disastrous. That was also the first and only ball with a catch probability between 90–95% that Straw has missed in his Guardians career. Slip-ups happen, even to the best defenders, and as the year goes on, those rare mistakes will be weighted less heavily in his overall numbers.

The catch opportunities (or lack thereof) that Straw has had so far might also explain his poor outfielder jump numbers. Outfielder jump measures a player’s initial movement on two-, three-, four-, and five-star catch opportunities. So far in 2023, Straw’s opportunities have skewed to the extremes. In particular, he has had significantly more five-star chances, and of those, 82% have had a catch probability of 5% or below:

That’s a high percentage of balls that are nearly uncatchable. On those plays, it stands to reason that a good outfielder might take the time he needs to get behind the ball and field it on a hop rather than going all out on the off chance he can make a diving grab. I watched all nine of Straw’s 5% catch opportunities this year, and lo and behold, I wouldn’t say he was actively trying to make the catch on any of them. But he also didn’t let a single one go past him, either. Only two of those balls went for more than a single: a double off the wall by Francisco Lindor, and a double to right-center by Triston Casas that could have been a triple if Straw weren’t there to cut it off:

More than almost any other player in baseball, Straw needs to be an elite defender to stick on a major league roster; his offense certainly isn’t keeping him employed. The Guardians, more than any other team in baseball, need Gold Glove defense from their center fielder; their league-worst offense certainly isn’t getting them to the playoffs. Thankfully, Straw’s poor metrics don’t portend a major defensive fall-off; he simply hasn’t the right chances to make his mark. The Strawman still has all the necessary tools in his fielding utility belt, and as the sample size increases, he should be just fine.