Author Archive

Effectively Wild Episode 1764: Decrying the Sliderization of Baseball

EWFI

In a crossover event Marvel would envy, Meg Rowley and guest co-host Michael Baumann of The Ringer discuss Games 1 and 2 of the World Series, what the loss of Charlie Morton means for Atlanta, the narrative role of the starter, how to navigate the moral conundrum that is fandom, the ever-growing length of postseason games, the conveyor-belt nature of Houston’s offense, Luis Garcia’s delivery, and what we might expect from both teams as the series shifts to Atlanta. Then they turn their attention to Rob Manfred’s comments on the chop before considering the CBA negotiations, the likelihood of a lockout (and a work stoppage), what will motivate both parties at the bargaining table, and the virtues of the pitch clock. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 6 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of relievers. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 5 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of outfielders. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 4 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of outfielders, including a postseason star. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 3 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group made up primarily of infielders, many of whom have positional flexibility, including on the outfield grass. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs World Series Game 1 Chat

8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: G’evening!

8:02
Avatar Alex Sonty: Happy World Series Day, y’alls!

8:02
Avatar David Laurila: Greetings, all. About to move a load of laundry, then back to chat.

8:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And to you Alex! Though sadly, it signals the end of baseball!

8:03
Dreamin: The two NL West heavyweights we all expected all along

8:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I guaranteed I did NOT project two NL West teams in the World Series!

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 2 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six of this year’s free agents — in this case, a mix of first basemen and designated hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 1 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, the winter’s marquee shortstops, as well as three catchers. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1763: World Series Preview, Fun Fact Edition

EWFI

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Sarah Langs of MLB.com banter about Sarah’s participation in MLB’s first game to feature an all-women broadcast crew, her research process, and what makes for a good fun fact. Then Sarah shares some Braves and Astros statistical oddities ahead of the World Series, including fun facts about Joc Pederson, Brian Snitker and Dusty Baker, Eddie Rosario, the Astros’ offense, Tyler Matzek, and more. Finally, Sarah offers what could make (and break) each team in the Fall Classic. Read the rest of this entry »


In Game 6 Win, Braves Defeat Dodgers, Doubts, and 2020’s Demons

We have a hard time making ourselves feel it when probability offers good news. Going into Saturday’s NLCS Game 6, our ZiPS postseason game-by-game odds gave the Braves a 71.4% chance of advancing to the World Series. They had largely outplayed the Dodgers. Max Muncy and Justin Turner were still sidelined, and Joe Kelly had just joined them. Max Scherzer had been scratched with arm fatigue, leaving Walker Buehler to start on short rest. Game 7 might mean a bullpen game for Los Angeles, if there were a Game 7 at all. The Dodgers were up against it; the Braves, at worst, had another shot.

That is what we knew; feeling it was another matter. After all, the Dodgers had won 18 more regular-season games than the Braves, and in a harder division. They were riding a seven-game win streak in postseason elimination games, including an 11–2 drubbing in Game 5 to stay alive. Atlanta had dealt with injuries of its own, and this series had so far followed 2020’s pattern, causing an itchy bit of worry in the back of Braves fans’ minds as they remembered going up three-games-to-one in last year’s NLCS only to have Los Angeles claw its way back in Game 5 and take the next two. Ian Anderson, the Braves’ Game 6 starter, had only managed three innings in Game 2; Atlanta won, but he’d walked three and allowed two runs, and then there were all those bad first innings to think of. What if Eddie Rosario’s bat cooled? What if Chris Taylor’s didn’t? Read the rest of this entry »