Recently here, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Baltimore Orioles. In this companion piece, I look at that same Baltimore farm system through the lens of my KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their age-28 seasons, those who receive a projection of at between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their age-28 seasons; and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Chance Sisco, C (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 9.7 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 7.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Cisco demolished High-A pitching last year to the tune of .308/.387/.422. He ran nearly-equal strikeout and walk rates, and complimented them with modest power and a high BABIP. That performance earned him a late-season cameo at Double-A, where he also excelled in many of the same categories. A season like that would be impressive from any 20-year-old, but Cisco’s is especially encouraging since he’s a catcher. Few catchers hit as well as Cisco has, making him one of the most compelling prospects in the game.

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Last week, I wrote a piece about Derek Fisher, who was supposedly part of the package going back to Philly in exchange for super-reliever Ken Giles. Now that the dust has finally settled on that trade, we’ve learned that Fisher wasn’t actually involved. So I basically wrote about Derek Fisher for no reason in particular. Instead, the Astros included former first-overall pick Mark Appel. A couple of guys named Arauz — Harold and Jonathan, going to Philly and Houston, respectively — were also included.

It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for Appel since he went first overall back in June of 2013. Between 2013 and 2014, he pitched to a 5.93 ERA and 3.86 FIP over 121 innings, with most of his work coming in A-Ball. His ERA and FIP converged last season, when he put up a 4.45 ERA and 4.30 FIP between Double-A and Triple-A. All told, Appel’s struck out 20% of opposing batters, and has walked 8% over the past two and a half years — roughly the same as an average minor leaguer.

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The 2015 Rule 5 draft has come and gone. A total of 16 players were selected in the major league portion of the event. In what follows, I take a look at what KATOH has to say about the players selected. The players are listed in the order they were selected in yesterday’s draft. Projections have been produced based both on 2015 and also 2014 minor-league stats.

Tyler Goeddel, OF (Profile)
New Team: Philadelphia
Old Team: Tampa Bay
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.9 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.5 WAR

Goedel was one of the players I profiled in my Rule 5 preview. He transitioned from third base to the outfield in 2015, and he took a step forward offensively as well. He hit a strong .279/.350/.443 in Double-A and also kicked in 28 steals. Goeddel’s had some trouble making contact in the past, but his combination of power and speed is intriguing. Hitters who both possess that skill set and have already succeeded in Double-A don’t grow on trees. He may not be quite ready for the show going by the numbers, but is close enough that he probably won’t embarrass himself. And at 23, there’s still room for him to improve. The Phillies won’t be winning many games in 2016, so Goeddel is exactly the type of player on whom they should by taking fliers. Maybe they’ll catch lightning in a bottle like they did with last year’s Rule 5 pick, Odubel Herrera.

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Earlier today, I published a post profiling a few of the hitters whom KATOH likes and who will be available in this week’s Rule 5 draft. Below, I repeat that exercise for pitchers.

As I did earlier, I will once again note that KATOH’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. In other words, this compilation of names is skewed more towards guys on the young end of the spectrum, and not necessarily towards guys who are most likely to contribute in 2016.

Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite pitchers who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven pitchers who are relatively close to being big league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.

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Seven Big League Ready(ish) Pitchers

Miguel Sulbaran, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR

Sulbaran pitched mostly at the Double-A level last year, where he turned in a solid 3.62 FIP. Sulbaran doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, but he’s allowed very few homers in the minors. The end result was a perfectly acceptable performance as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He’s also a lefty, which might appeal to teams looking to add one of those to their bullpen.

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The Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville, which means all 30 GMs are under the same roof for a few days. As you’re probably aware, this has already resulted in a few high–profile transactions. Less interestingly, this also means the Rule 5 draft is upon us.

Below, I touch on a few of the available hitters who catch KATOH’s eye. Keep in mind that KATOH is designed to identify the best prospects overall, so it’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Carlos Tocci, who features an interesting profile but is unlikely prepared for the majors, is this year’s embodiment of that phenomenon.

Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. Some prime examples from this year’s class are Jabari Blash and Balbino Fuenmayor. Yes, I chose those two as examples due to their double-plus names. I didn’t touch on players like Blash or Fuenmayor here, though, since they’re slightly outside of KATOH’s wheelhouse. If they’re selected, I’ll take a look at them after the draft.

Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite hitters who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven hitters who are relatively close to being big-league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.

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Seven Big-League-Ready(ish) Hitters

Todd Glaesmann, OF, Arizona (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.0 WAR

Glaesmann hit a powerful .278/.316/.540 in the minors last year, with most of those reps coming at the Triple-A level. The 6-foot-4 outfielder has struggled to make contact in the past, but slashed his strikeout rate to a respectable 19% in Triple-A last year. Glaesmann has succeeded at the Triple-A level, but his lack of consistent contact still makes it unclear how much he’ll hit in the big leagues. His atrocious 2014 campaign is also a blemish on his otherwise encouraging statistical track record.

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Every winter, hundreds of nondescript minor leaguers become minor league free agents. Minor league free agency is what happens to a player who’s not on a 40-man roster after spending at least six years in the minor leagues. In other words, these players weren’t good enough to merit a callup after several years in the minors, and their organizations didn’t think they had enough potential to be worthy of a 40-man spot.

Some of these players latch on with new organizations; some of them don’t. But regardless, the overwhelming majority never have much big league success. A couple of years ago, Carson Cistulli found that only about 1% of minor league free agents produce at least 0.5 WAR the following season. Minor league free agents are the absolute bottom of the barrel when it comes to player transactions.

But there’s an occasional gem at the bottom of that barrel. Its not at all unheard of for a minor league free agent to make a major league impact. In no particular order, Gregor Blanco, Jesus Guzman, Donovan Solano, Yangervis Solarte, Jake Smolinski, Jose Quintana and Al Alburquerque are some notable examples from the past few years. And there are certainly others that I neglected to mention. Each left his original organization via minor league free agency, but achieved some level of big league success with his new team.

Using my KATOH projection system, I identified a few players from this year’s minor league free agent class who showed glimmers of promise last season. Based on their minor league numbers, there’s reason to believe they might be able to help at the big league level sometime soon. Below, you’ll find the top three hitters and top three pitchers according to KATOH. For each player, I’ve also provided a projected win total through his age-28 season (denoted as WAR thru 28) based both on 2015 numbers and then also his 2014 season (denoted as 2014 KATOH).

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Hitters

Wilfredo Tovar, 2.0 WAR thru 28

2014 KATOH: 1.5 WAR

Former Team: New York Mets

Current Status: Unsigned

Tovar was an interesting prospect in the Mets system a few years back, but the infielder stalled out in the high minors after a couple of injury-plagued seasons. He spent 2015 with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, where he hit .283/.327/.356 with 30 steals. Tovar isn’t sexy — if he were, he wouldn’t be a minor league free agent — but he makes contact, runs well and plays up-the-middle defense. And most importantly, at 24, he’s still young enough that he could conceivably get a good deal better.

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Please note that this is not the most recent list. An updated version can be found here.

Last week, I published a 2,000-plus word primer on the KATOH projection system I use to forecast prospects. Most notably, I discussed the improvements I made to the model and also explored how well individual minor league statistics can predict big league success. Today, I’m back with the end result of all of my math: KATOH’s top 100 list.

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My role here at FanGraphs is to write about minor league players. Nearly all of my articles focus on the output from my KATOH projection system, which produces long-term forecasts for players who are still in the minor league phase of their careers. Today, I’m unveiling some updates to my model that will be reflected in my analysis from this point forward.

I’ve been meaning to work these updates into KATOH for quite some time now, but haven’t had the chance to finish up until now. Some pieces of this took a bit longer than expected, and day job stuff along with this year’s onslaught of prospect debuts pushed things to the backseat a bit. But I’m all caught up now and ready to unveil my new and improved KATOH. Here we go!

Rather than just putting out a straight leaderboard, I thought I’d use this as an opportunity to explain some of the inner workings of KATOH. I wanted to say something more insightful than “These are the best prospects because math.” That’s why this piece runs 2,000+ words without reference to a single baseball player. If you’re just interested in the output rather than the nitty-gritty, check back after Thanksgiving for KATOH’s top 100 list. I just wanted to get all of this background stuff down in one place, rather than cluttering future pieces with extra information.

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Obligatory Technical Details

The general framework of my model is largely the same as it’s always been. As I did in the past, I deployed a series of probit regressions to see what factors are most predictive of major league performance. For each player, I generated probabilities that he would achieve certain benchmarks through his age-28 season: play in the major leagues, earn at least 1 WAR, earn at least 2 WAR, etc. These percentages gave me a probabilistic outlook for each player, and enabled me calculate an “expected value” for his WAR through age 28.

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The Padres and Red Sox swung a deal on Friday night that sent Craig Kimbrel to Boston in exchange for a quartet of prospects: outfielder Manny Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, second baseman Carlos Asuaje and left-handed pitcher Logan Allen. As Dave Cameron noted immediately following the trade, the Red Sox coughed up quite a package for the rights to Kimbrel. Not only did San Diego receive a high-quality prospect in Margot, but they got quantity as well. Here’s what my fancy computer math says about these prospects. The numbers next to their names refer to their projected WAR totals through age 28 according to KATOH.

Manny Margot, 10.2 WAR

The Red Sox signed Manny Margot as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican back in 2011, and he’s hit at every stop since then. He put himself on the prospect map in 2014 with a strong showing in Low-A, but he outdid himself in 2015 by essentially replicating those numbers in both High-A and Double-A. Margot makes a ton of contact, hits for modest power and runs wild on the base paths. All of that bodes well for his future in the show, especially considering he’s always been very young for his levels. Here are some comps that were generated using a series of Mahalanobis distance calculations.

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After falling to 2-0 against the Royals and their high-contact ways, the Mets will turn to rookie Noah Syndergaard for game 3 tonight. After disappointing outings from both Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, the Mets are hoping he’ll pitch like he has all season long, and keep his team within striking distance of a World Series title.

I last wrote about Syndergaard when he was called up back in May. Heading into the year, KATOH pegged him for 11.5 WAR through age 28, which was the second highest forecast among pitching prospects, and sixth highest overall. Although he posted an unremarkable 4.60 ERA in a full season at Triple-A in 2014, Syndergaard’s near-30% strikeout rate pushed his KATOH forecast to elite levels. A pitcher’s minor league strikeout rate is a very strong predictor of big league success, and Syndergaard’s was the highest of any Triple-A pitcher at the time of his call up. All while being one of the youngest pitchers at the level.

Thus far, Syndergaard’s lived up to KATOH’s high expectations — and then some. He maintained his near-30% strikeout rate in his rookie season, and actually improved his walk rate at the highest level. The end result was a 3.24 ERA and 3.25 FIP — both figures tops among rookies with at least 130 innings pitched. Those numbers don’t even consider the stellar job he’s done in this year’s postseason: a 1.44 FIP with a 38% strikeout rate against some of the best hitters the National League had to offer.

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