Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/2/20 by Ben Clemens March 2, 2020 2:00 Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome. 2:00 Ben Clemens: I’m on a backup computer today as I think my desktop might have finally kicked the bucket, so I’ll probably be a little slower. Bear with me. 2:01 Sale Day: Should I be worried about Sale or do you expect a bounce back year? 2:01 Ben Clemens: I mean, the recent news isn’t good! 2:01 Ben Clemens: We’ll see how he looks, but if he’s really starting the season on the IL 2:01 Ben Clemens: Even if briefly 2:01 Ben Clemens: You have to worry about his stamina for the year as a whole. 2:02 NastyNate: Who’s your breakout SP this year? 2:02 Ben Clemens: I’ve said Adrian Houser before, and I’ll stick with that here. I like everything he’s working with. 2:02 Jerome: What would the A’s have to offer in extension talks with Semien to get him to consider signing? Would 5 years, between $110-$120 be enough? 2:02 Ben Clemens: Interesting. 2:03 Ben Clemens: Let’s see. 2:04 Ben Clemens: I think that would get it done — it’s hard to figure out value on someone like Semien who changed his established level so much. 2:05 Ben Clemens: But I’m not sure the A’s would be interested at that point, because they survive on surplus value and it’s tough to make their crazy-low-payroll model work with someone paid that highly unless they’re an MVP candidate. 2:05 Dak: I have a problem with fWAR being calculated for pitchers using FIP. No matter how fluky the performance is, the lower the ERA for the pitcher, the better the outcome was for the team. It would be like assigning fWAR for hitters using xwOBA. Doesn’t that seem flawed? I just think there are too many “lucky” outcomes that add or subtract value in baseball to try and evaluate a player’s value with anything but what outcome it caused. 2:05 Ben Clemens: Eh, it’s not clear. WAR and WPA are different things, you know? 2:06 Ben Clemens: If you’re trying to say how a team did in a player’s games, then ERA is great. 2:06 Ben Clemens: But the analogy to wOBA doesn’t track. 2:06 Ben Clemens: Because ERA values, say, a home run differently based on who was on base. 2:06 Ben Clemens: But batter WAR certainly doesn’t. 2:07 Ben Clemens: There are definitely lucky outcomes, and if you wanted to work out some kind of wOBA-allowed based WAR, sure. 2:08 Ben Clemens: But FIP is a lot closer to wRC+ (or wOBA, whatever) based batter WAR than anything else 2:08 Ben Clemens: Because it’s the most context-neutral simple pitching stat we have 2:08 Ben: Apparently Yankees are interested in Steve Matz. What’s a fair price? 2:09 Ben Clemens: So if I’m reading this right, Matz has two years left on his deal. 2:10 Ben Clemens: He’s maybe more name rec than results so far in his career, but he’s something like a league average pitcher. 2:10 Ben Clemens: And he’ll be cheap! He signed a $5 million deal in arb this year. 2:11 Ben Clemens: So let’s say you project 10m for him in arb next year, two years of a league average pitcher for $15 million. It’s probably something like a 45+ FV batter or 50 FV pitcher if you think our surplus value estimates are reasonable. 2:12 Ben Clemens: To be honest, I’m not super up to speed on the exact shape of the Yankees system at the moment. But let’s look. 2:13 Ben Clemens: I dunno. One of their interesting arms? Maybe Sikkema or Gomez? I’d have to look into it more. 2:13 Mo: Carlson sure is making it hard to not bring him north with the big club. I just hope it’s Fowler’s job he’s taking when he makes it up instead of Bader or O’Neil. I know it’s small sample, but what has he shown in the past year that says he wouldn’t immediately be better than Fowler right now? 2:13 Baby Yoda: Odds Dylan Carlson makes the STL roster? If so, what does the outfield look like? Fowler, Carlson, Bader, O’Neill, Edman all have a claim they should start (none is iron-clad). 2:14 Ben Clemens: Yeah, if he keeps playing like this, I think it’s likely he’ll be on the opening day roster. 2:14 Ben Clemens: I follow Derrick Goold on Twitter and it seems like every other tweet is that Carlson is on base again. 2:14 Ben Clemens: Small sample size and all, but he’s hitting the ball well and walking a lot. 2:15 Ben Clemens: Let’s be real, he would start out taking one of O’Neill or Bader’s jobs, probably O’Neill. 2:15 Ben Clemens: If Fowler is a league average hitter again I think he’ll keep getting playing time this year. If he struggles to start out, they might go triple-young very quickly. 2:15 Ben Clemens: And Bader is never a lock to hit well enough that the team is comfortable using him, even if I think that’s short-sighted. 2:16 Ben Clemens: I’d be using Bader as much as possible, because it’s SUPER valuable to have defense that good. If he can develop into a league average bat he’s Kevin Kiermaier. 2:16 Dogged: What is your take on the failed Joc-Stripling-Rengifo deal? Simple as the Dodgers were making a bad deal? I guess more specifically, why did they value Rengifo so high and what are your expectations for him this year and beyond? 2:17 Ben Clemens: I’m still quite puzzled by it. The mystery prospect going the other way presumably made it look better, but I thought the Dodgers were giving up too much. 2:17 Ben Clemens: It’s no secret that I like Stripling, but I think Joc is a borderline everyday guy too. 2:17 Ben Clemens: The payroll issue is real, and Rengifo is the kind of guy the Dodgers like acquiring. 2:18 Ben Clemens: Someone in a past chat (sorry, I forget who!) pointed out that he fits that Turner/Taylor mold of acquisition. 2:19 Ben Clemens: But yeah, I’m not that high on Rengifo and I don’t think he’ll get enough run with the Angels to be interesting unless La Stella and Fletcher are just truly awful. 2:19 Ben Clemens: I don’t know why Arte pulled out but I think that cost the Angels. 2:19 JoshR: Hi Ben. Not much talk about how the Reds defense could sink them. Thinking particularly about Moustakas and Castellanos. What do you think? 2:20 Ben Clemens: Uh yeah, it’s certainly an issue. I’d be more worried about Castellanos than Moustakas, honestly. 2:20 Ben Clemens: Maybe Moustakas can’t actually handle second base, but he didn’t look completely at sea when he tried on the Brewers. He moved off the position b/c of Hiura, not b/c he couldn’t handle it. 2:21 Ben Clemens: The Reds outfield defense will be a story to watch. Winker is Castellanian out there 2:21 Ben Clemens: Akiyama is a wild card. 2:21 Ben Clemens: They luckily have a tiny outfield 2:21 Ben Clemens: They’ve played quite literally Shin-Soo Choo in center before. 2:21 Ben Clemens: But it’s the thing I’d be most worried about as a Reds fan. 2:21 Ben Clemens: Well, that and whether Votto’s decline is real, because that would be super sad. 2:21 Nathan: Better keeper to pair with a round 20 J. Luzardo. A. Meadows in the 15th rd. J. McNeil in the 18th. J. Baez in the 7th or O. Mercado in the 25th? 2:22 Ben Clemens: So, I’m getting back into fantasy this year (took a year off), but I am at best sketchy and at worst completely making it up when it comes to keeper leagues. 2:22 Ben Clemens: My intuition would just be to take Javy and deal with the higher draft pick lost, b/c I’m concerned with the way the Rays are gonna handle their outfield situation. 2:23 Ben Clemens: But you could convince me of McNeil as well 2:23 Ben Clemens: I’m kinda down on Mercado 2:23 Jerome: In your excellent piece last week on which teams are helped and hurt by the Base Runs translation of team WAR, you didn’t mention the A’s. They seem to be a team hurt by the translation. Do you have thoughts on why? Is it because of their low OBP (ironic, huh)? Also, how does Base Runs account for team defense and especially the compounding effects a good defense has on pitcher results? 2:24 Ben Clemens: Haha their OBP matters some, for sure. I need to do some more digging into the defense side, but I believe those are already feeding ERA’s for pitchers who have signed. 2:24 Ben Clemens: This might be more of a question for Dan 2:25 Ben Clemens: Because I am more or less trying to pick at these engines from the outside 2:25 Ben Clemens: Rather than building them 2:25 Robber: Thinking about Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who seem to be great at player development, what can an organization like Driveline do for players that a team can’t? 2:25 Ben Clemens: This is all speculation, of course, but my thinking is that having a new voice is really useful. 2:26 Ben Clemens: When I’ve gotten into a rut in work in the past, I’ve often found that I get out of it by doing something out of the ordinary. 2:26 Ben Clemens: Picking some silly fight with my boss (not meg, to be clear) 2:26 Ben Clemens: Going and doing a new thing that I’m not good at 2:26 Ben Clemens: Just, something that changes my routine significantly 2:26 Ben Clemens: Wouldn’t shock me if that’s what is going on with a lot of people finding success at Driveline even when their teams know what they’re doing. 2:27 Ben Clemens: Changing up your headspace is valuable. 2:27 Bad Bill: To pick up where Jay left off and also on where you’re going with Carlson/Bader, maybe the Mets would be interested in trading for Bader. But trades have to work for both teams. What do the Mets have, and what are they willing to part with, that the Cardinals would want to get in such a trade? 2:28 Ben Clemens: Well, the Mets were rumored to be interested in Bader last year for Zack Wheeler. 2:28 Ben Clemens: So I do think they would trade for him. 2:29 Ben Clemens: The cost is interesting; the Cardinals aren’t really in the market for a Matz or Lugo type, I don’t think, but they would like major league ready guys. 2:29 Ben Clemens: Would they trade Brandon Nimmo for Bader? I doubt it 2:30 Ben Clemens: But would the Cardinals be interested in, I dunno, Dom Smith? Definitely not. 2:30 Ben Clemens: And I really doubt the Cards are interested in prospects at this point, they cleared out a ton of their major league outfield depth already. 2:30 Ben Clemens: I think that it’s one of these situations where, like you said, trades need to work for both teams, and the pieces don’t match up. 2:30 Ben Clemens: Now, would the mets be interested in actual Kevin Kiermaier if Arozarena/Margot is enough for the Rays? That seems interesting. 2:31 Guest: Hey do you happen to know when FG will publish player caps for this year? Fantasy drafts are right around the corner! 2:31 Ben Clemens: I’m not sure, but I’ve written a few this year. 2:31 Ben Clemens: Like 20 or 30, I forget the exact number. 2:31 Ben Clemens: It’s a crazy grind that the Roto guys do to get these out, there are just so many players. 2:32 Ben Clemens: Lending a hand for a few really emphasized to me how much work they do. 2:32 Guest: Ben, loved your article on exit velocity vs wOBA. Quick question though, how did you generate that data (Exit Venmo vs wOBA) Couldn’t figure it out on baseball savant. Do you have another source? Thanks 2:32 Ben Clemens: Hm, I”m not 100% sure which article you’re referring to, but if it’s this one: 2:32 Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-sweet-spot-by-any-other-definition/ 2:33 Ben Clemens: Then I took everything from Savant 2:33 Ben Clemens: And I’ll say generally that I rely heavily on Savant data, either just taken directly from there or manipulated slightly. 2:33 Guest: Thanks! It was that article, I’ll have to look again to see what I was missing (also Exit Venmo whoops) 2:34 Ben Clemens: Okay cool 2:34 Ben Clemens: I can quickly explain what I did. 2:34 Ben Clemens: Basically there are filters called ‘metric range’ that let you put things in 2:34 Ben Clemens: like launch angle or exit velocity 2:34 Ben Clemens: So you can compound two of those 2:34 Ben Clemens: To look for, say, balls hit 95mph+ with an exit velocity between -8 and -7 degrees inclusive. 2:35 Ben Clemens: Alternately, you could just download every hit 2:35 Ben Clemens: Then do some countif/sumif/other filters in excel or a computer programming language of your choice 2:35 Ben Clemens: every batted ball rather 2:35 Derek: Exit Venmo is what all of my money does. 2:35 Ben Clemens: Hey-o 2:35 Derek: Do you listen to music while you work? If so, what music? 2:36 Ben Clemens: I do pretty frequently. I like a mixture of more chill electronic music and classical music. 2:37 Ben Clemens: Two work favorites are Tobu (for the electronic side) and Glenn Gould (if I want some nice piano music) 2:37 Ben Clemens: I’d throw Blackmill on there as well. 2:37 Ben Clemens: And then once in a while if I’m having writer’s block I’ll throw on 1989 by Taylor Swift 2:37 Ben Clemens: Love that album 2:38 Ben Clemens: Because it gets me in the mood to work hard, which can be a problem when you’re stuck on something. 2:38 2-D: Do you watch Real Sports on HBO? Did you see the segment about Trevor Bauer? 2:38 Ben Clemens: I’ve seen the transcripts of his interview 2:38 Ben Clemens: And, in fact, Meg linked to one in my article today: 2:38 Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-bauer-might-have-conducted-another-… 2:40 Ben Clemens: I tend to agree with him that everyone is doing it. I also don’t think it’s particularly crazy to say that Bauer himself is using pine tar sometimes too 2:40 Ben Clemens: I’d generally be in favor of legalizing and regulating it. 2:40 Ben Clemens: As a Californian, that’s my stance on a lot of things 🙂 2:41 yabbadabba: Hey, do you know how the projections do stats like R and RBI? Do they know something about the players’ teammates? 2:42 Ben Clemens: Yeah, they for sure do. I’m guessing here, but I think you could fit a regression without too much trouble between OBP/SLG around you and RBI/runs 2:42 Ben Clemens: I’m 100% not sure that’s how they do it, to be clear. 2:43 Ben Clemens: But if I were projecting things, that’s where I’d start. It’s generally easier to project the context-neutral stuff, and I would start by trying to use that to inform context rather than by trying to build my own games from scratch 2:43 Glen Gould baby: You like Bach?? 2:44 Ben Clemens: Yeah a guy I used to work with just listened to the Goldberg variations more or less every day. 2:44 Ben Clemens: And I thought hey, that’s weird. 2:45 Ben Clemens: But then one day I listened to some Gould playing Bach and I found I was very clear-headed while listening to it. 2:45 Ben Clemens: So I just went with it 2:45 Ben Clemens: I played piano a bit growing up, but not seriously. This was way more an adult life acquired taste. 2:46 Derek: What are you most looking forward to this season? (Maybe this needs two divisions: Banging-Related and Non-Banging-Related) 2:46 Ben Clemens: Oh, nah, I don’t need two divisions. 2:46 Ben Clemens: I’m looking forward to watching deGrom pitch 2:46 Ben Clemens: That’s #1 by far. 2:48 Ben Clemens: When I lived in NY I got to see him pitch live reasonably often and the thrill never really wore off 2:48 Ben Clemens: So I guess watching Cole will be up there too, but something about deGrom’s style agrees with me more. 2:50 Ben Clemens: Oh, and I suppose also I’m really excited to watch the Angels. 2:50 Matt: Phillies said Seranthony Dominguez’s velocity was 94 yesterday. He averaged 97 in 2019, and got up to 100 in 2018 when he was most effective. Is this anything to worry about? 2:50 Ben Clemens: Give it a month, I guess? 2:50 Ben Clemens: Like, it’s barely March 2:50 Ben Clemens: Still cold, some guys warm up slowly 2:50 Ben Clemens: But yes, if he’s 94 when the season starts, that’s not great. 2:50 Hot take: Goldberg Variations are the Mike Trout of piano pieces 2:52 H: Houser vs Urquidy vs Dobnak 2:52 Ben Clemens: Houser for me. Dobnak is gonna have so much trouble getting PT 2:52 Ben Clemens: I like Urquidy too, just Houser by a hair. 2:53 Dogged: what do you expect from Hoerner and Solak this year? Do either breakout as 1st division starters? I know the Cubs have some other options for PT, but don’t get why the Rangers seem to be squeezing Solak out of PT already. 2:54 Ben Clemens: Hm. I don’t think either will truly break out this year, but I agree with you that the Rangers should go wild 2:54 Ben Clemens: With SOlak 2:55 Hopeful White Sox Fan: Luis Robert had a great week – great running catch, sped to a triple, hit a dinger. Loudest set of tools for any prospect? 2:55 Ben Clemens: Oh man, loudest set of tools, that’s tough to say. 2:55 Ben Clemens: Oh gosh,r ather 2:55 Ben Clemens: I’m trying to get out of the habit of overusing man and guy 2:55 Ben Clemens: Hm 2:56 Ben Clemens: I don’t really think so? Maybe among the major league ready types 2:56 Ben Clemens: But what about Oneill Cruz? 2:56 Ben Clemens: What a monster! 2:56 SparkyMcGuffey: Keepers. Both $5 or less. Soler or Semien? 2:56 Ben Clemens: Gimme Soler. I really believe in the power 2:57 Ben Clemens: And I’m not yet convinced on Semien. Guess if you’re OBP league you can bump Semien up some? I just really think Soler is more sustainable from a fantasy stats perspective 2:57 Derek: I think “Wander Franco” is often just the answer to any question about prospects, similar to “Mike Trout” for major leaguers. 2:57 Ben Clemens: Haha you might be right. To me, Franco’s best tool (hit) is the quietest tool 2:57 Ben Clemens: But I mean 2:57 Ben Clemens: He good 2:57 Fresh Basil: Considering multiple injuries at SP across the league, how valuable is Archer if he comes out the gates hot? 2:58 Ben Clemens: I think teams would want him. He’s the kind of player you dream on. The stuff has always been good 2:58 Ben Clemens: What would the return look like? Gonna depend on who is in need 2:59 Ben Clemens: But we’re talking about the Yankees wanting Matz and Archer is a straight upgrade there I think 2:59 Dick Williams: Should we just roll with the young guys at SS and C (Stephenson and Garcia) since they are looking better in spring training than our alleged starters (Barnhart hitting .091 like normal)? 3:00 Ben Clemens: Too early for sure to tell something like this. 3:00 Ben Clemens: I will say that Stephenson’s strikeout rate is encouraging 3:01 Ben Clemens: I mean, he has great plate discipline 3:01 Ben Clemens: But it’s just good to see him post it. Garcia, eh, hard to get too excited just yet for me. 3:01 Ben Clemens: It’s early. 3:01 Norm: What are your Freddy Peralta expectations this year? Any confidence his new slider can lead to more consistency? 3:01 Ben Clemens: Confidence? No 3:01 Ben Clemens: Hope? Definitely 3:02 Ben Clemens: I’ve always thought Peralta would succeed as a starter, even as he’s scuffled, just b/c of the stuff 3:02 Ben Clemens: I remain optimistic. I think the Brewers young pitching, in general, is a big source of upside potential for them. 3:02 Navajoshea: Would you rather keep a $17 Yu Darvish or a $6 German Marquez going into the year. 14 team $260 cap. I just can’t get a feel for what we’ll get out of German this year. THanks. 3:03 Ben Clemens: I’ll take Darvish. 3:03 Ben Clemens: I’m also conflicted on Marquez 3:03 Ben Clemens: But I think Darvish has top 10, top 5 SP upside 3:04 Ben Clemens: and I think his floor is higher than people think too 3:04 Mountie Votto: Tyler Mahle has said he’s comfortable coming out of the bullpen. How does a command/control guy without overpowering stuff change his repertoire as a reliever and what do you think his potential is there? Why not just let him stay stretched out in AAA? 3:05 Ben Clemens: I mean, if I’m him, I’d like to be on the major league roster 3:05 Ben Clemens: That said, I would be inclined to see what he looks like in relief 3:05 Ben Clemens: And if it’s not 1.5 mph faster and higher K%, send him back down to AAA 3:06 !?BOPES?!: Do you see any bust potential in Rafael Devers this year? 3:06 Ben Clemens: I do. 3:06 Ben Clemens: Not a ton, particularly, but he doesn’t have enough track record at this level to definitively say this is him. 3:06 Ben Clemens: I get that projections like him a lot because of his age, and that’s a real mark in his favor 3:07 Ben Clemens: But if he puts up a 100 wRC+ due to a down babip year and regression in K rate 3:07 Ben Clemens: Like, sure, totally believable to me 3:07 JensenHoneydo: Joey Votto can give us one last solid year right? Odds on him being a .280 hitter with 20HR and 80+RBI? 3:07 Ben Clemens: I sure hope so. Votto is a baseball treasure. I didn’t list this as something I was looking forward to, but every time Votto does something comic I’m happy 3:08 Derek: How much stock to decision-makers put into Spring Training performance? Like, my baseline assumption is “not much”, but every single year it seems like big, important decisions are made based on Spring Training. Then again, teams have much data available to them that may just support the conclusions based on ST performance, but still… 3:08 Ben Clemens: I think that for the most part, teams are being smart about this 3:09 Ben Clemens: They’ll make decisions on starting the year based on ST, though I think they focus a lot more heavily than we do on stable stuff and velo data 3:09 Ben Clemens: But it’s pretty easy to roll these decisions back? Like if you give a hot rookie a month of PT and he is meh, cool, that takes care of itself 3:09 Ben Clemens: It’s not 2001 anymore where Albert Pujols comes to camp and people go oh, he’s the best player on this team, who is this guy? 3:10 Jordan Montgomery: First Paxton, then Severino with German still serving a suspension. I should have one of the NYY rotation spots locked down, right? Expectations? 3:11 Ben Clemens: I believe so. I like Montgomery more than the projections, though I do worry about his ability to hold onto a spot when everyone comes back 3:11 Scooter: do you feel bad for me too? 3:12 Ben Clemens: Eh, it’s all relative. In total probably no? He’s done alright for himself. But that doesn’t mean the current situation isn’t lame. 3:12 Ben Clemens: He’s certainly a victim of circumstance 3:13 Ben Clemens: Just b/c he hit a few hard 8’s (or your gambling metaphor of choice) to get to this point doesn’t mean you can’t be sad about the bad break 3:13 scully’s silky sound: thoughts on julio urias as a legitimate top of the rotation guy in years to come? dude is only 23 and has some serious stuff 3:14 Ben Clemens: Eh, I’m skeptical. Even as a prospect a lot of his value was in the fact that he was high floor 3:14 Ben Clemens: And injuries aside, he does seem that. 3:15 Ben Clemens: But he’s really a 2.5 pitch guy, and while his fastball has played better than I expected, I don’t know how much of that he’d hold starting rather than relieving. 3:15 Ben Clemens: I don’t really believe in ceilings for prospects (or post-prospects), b/c like, what does that even mean 3:15 Ben Clemens: But I don’t like Urias’s odds of becoming the next Walker Buehler or anything. 3:15 diadem: Who has the better year, Aguilar or Thames/ 3:16 Ben Clemens: Depends on what metric you’re scoring it. I think Thames will have better rate stats b/c with Zim and Kendrick, the Nats are set up really well to put him in great spots to succeed. 3:16 Ben Clemens: Aguilar is going to be out there every day 3:17 Ben Clemens: Unless Garrett Cooper takes his spot, which would require Aguilar being bad I think. 3:17 Ben Clemens: Since there’s no platoon anything going on there. 3:18 Ben Clemens: We project them for similar PA on depth charts, but eh, I’m probably lower on Cooper than we are I guess. 3:18 Sanford: Speaking of watching deGrom this year, I heard Eric compare Tahnaj Thomas to him on a recent FG Audio–have you had the chance to check him out before/do you have a take on him that’s not on THE BOARD? 3:18 Ben Clemens: I did hear that. And I’m now going to try to watch some of him this year 3:18 Ben Clemens: It’s still amazing to me that deGrom is a converted infielder 3:19 Ben Clemens: Like, look at that guy. He just looks like a pitcher 3:19 Rde3: I was just offered c. Martinez, Civale & arraerz for woodruff in a keeper lge! Thoughts 3:19 Ben Clemens: That sounds like a lot for Woodruff 3:19 Ben Clemens: I mean, it’s three uncertain commodities 3:20 Ben Clemens: But unless you have severe roster crunch, it’s kind of a go-wide strategy; I like your odds of one of the three hitting at least. 3:20 Ben Clemens: And Woodruff is hardly can’t miss. 3:20 DPD from EGV: Do you think Ahmed Rosario can make the jump to being a top 8 SS this year? 3:21 Ben Clemens: Basically no? 3:21 Ben Clemens: I mean, I think he should be at least an average player, which is great considering where he’s been in the past. 3:21 Ben Clemens: But I think math just works against him. 3:21 Ben Clemens: He’s not ever going to hit for a ton of power 3:22 Ben Clemens: At least, I certainly don’t think so. 3:22 Ben Clemens: And he doesn’t walk that much 3:22 Ben Clemens: So there’s just a lot of pressure on his defense to get him to a top 10 shortstop level 3:22 Ben Clemens: And eh 3:22 Ben Clemens: eh 3:23 Ben Clemens: Not that he’s a bad defender. The tools are there 3:24 Ben Clemens: But I just don’t see it 3:24 Durst Burst: Lourdes Gurriel is a name I keep seeing pop up as a potential breakout. Are we buying it and what do you think we can expect out of him? 3:26 Ben Clemens: He has the ingredients, and I think he’l have the playing time. I am not sold on the power. He got a lot of mileage out of putting the ball in the air and I think betting on that again is maybe risky. 3:26 Ben Clemens: So I’d say I’m not buying it, but I think he can be an average bat, which puts him about where Depth Charts has him 3:26 Aloha Friday: i’m torn on my last keeper choice between bichette and Kris Bryant in a dynasty league that counts OPS and AVG. Bryant makes sense but Bichette is so intriguing long-term. currently holding acuna, belli, cole, story, tatis 3:27 Ben Clemens: I mean, I think you have to hold Bryant even though Bichette would be more fun. I really wanted to think of a way where i could tell you to hold Bichette. But I don’t see it. Bryant lines up age-wise well 3:27 Ben Clemens: Quite a team! 3:27 Nick: You must win a championship in the next five years or your life is forfeit. Which player do you pick to start your team with? 3:28 Ben Clemens: Probably LeBron 3:28 Ben Clemens: IF we’re talking baseball, I mean, Trout 3:28 Ben Clemens: But basketball has a much higher best-player-impact, if you know what I mean 3:28 John S.: How long of a leash does Isan Diaz have to start the year? 3:28 Ben Clemens: If it were up to me, super long 3:29 Ben Clemens: The competition here is basically Berti I think 3:30 Ben Clemens: And Diaz is worth dreaming on 3:30 Ben Clemens: Like yeah he was bad in 2019 3:30 Ben Clemens: Really bad 3:30 Ben Clemens: (in the majors) 3:31 Ben Clemens: But kind of everything that could go wrong went wrong — he hit for no power and no babip 3:31 Ben Clemens: Let’s see what happens with more ab’s. He was solid in Triple-A 3:31 Ben Clemens: Alright guys, sorry for the short chat today, but I’m going to call it here. Need to get Ruby some exercise because she has training later today 3:31 Ben Clemens: And a restless Ruby is not a good student. 3:32 Ben Clemens: So while I myself am exhausted, it’s time to grab some tennis balls and run around for thirty minutes. 3:32 Ben Clemens: Have a great day, everyone!