Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/4/26

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s talk baseball

Cody Bellinger’s 5 O’Clock Shadow: !!ALERT!!
Konnor Griffin is now a qualified hitter with a wRC+ of over 100

Ben Clemens: I was just looking at this htis morning, believe it or not

Ben Clemens: It’s funny b/c on Friday he was at 76

Ben Clemens: and then he had two pretty nice games over the weekend. Great reminder that you should not read too much into early season results

Ben Clemens: I sure hope we’re watching him figure it out in real time. But maybe he was never even that confused? Who knows

Sid the Astros Kid: Hi Ben, watched the battle of the titans over the weekend (Red Sox vs the Astros), I’m not really sure how to feel about the Astros finally getting a series win here. Is it a pyrrhic victory in beating a team that’s somehow floundering even worse than ours or should I just be happy that we’re somehow in the division and wildcard race? Or is it just early season baseball

Ben Clemens: omg yesterday’s game was so good

Ben Clemens: the top of the 10th inning was morbidly fascinating

Ben Clemens: like a race to see who could make more unforced errors

Oaktown Blues: I ended up at a A-ball game for my FIL’s birthday on Saturday.  Imagine my surprise when the SP for the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes was one Alek Manoah! Alas, none of my in-laws grasped why that was interesting. He unfortunately looked like he belonged at the level

Ben Clemens: Alek Manoah, man, what a crazy career trajectory

Ben Clemens: He looked like he was on one of those meteoric rise trajectories, and then bam, just not good anymore

Ben Clemens: I think it’s amazing that he’s back in A ball (rehabbing, to be fair)

Ben Clemens: but yeah, I just looked up this game and five earned on 2 and and 2 walks in 4 innings? yees

bosoxforlife: Ildemaro Vargas leads baseball in batting average and Mickie Moniak leads the National league in HR’s and OPS. “You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn.”

Ben Clemens: RIP John Sterling

Ben Clemens: it is truly a weird start to the year. I mean, it’s often truly a weird start to the year. But Vargas taking over the Geraldo Perdomo Memorial This Diamondback Is Good I Swear role is a development I did not see coming

Ben Clemens: I thought that would be Geraldo Perdomo again this year

Pete Alonso: Why was Bo Bichette so highly valued as a bad defender and baserunner whose offense is BABIP-dependent? I’m exaggerating on purpose, please make Mets fans feel better.

Ben Clemens: Well, I guess I’d quibble with a lots of those classifications

Ben Clemens: but like… they signed him because his WAR is basically 4 a year, for a long time, and they needed an infielder? and I think that the defensive side of things looks totally fine

Ben Clemens: I’ve watched a lot of Mets games this year both because i like the booth and because they’re absolutely a fascinating team

Ben Clemens: and he looks fine. And they’re even using him at short now, and he doesn’t look like an immediate disaster

Ben Clemens: I guess I’d say that Bichette is not the biggest problem with this team. The fact that no one except Juan Soto can hit is a bigger problem

Don Caglianone: not to alarm anyone but it’s May and the Chicago White Sox are currently in a playoff spot

Ben Clemens: now THIS is exciting

Ben Clemens: another team I’ve watched a lot of this year

Ben Clemens: They’re just full of really fun players who are playing with no expectations. Good mix for good vibes

bosoxforlife: The baseball world is a lesser place today with the passing of a legend in the booth. Mel Allen will always be The Voice of the Yankees to me but John Sterling is a close second. Whether it is (“Yankees win … theeeeee Yankees win!”) or {“It is high, it is far, it is gone”} his calls are part of lexicon of the game which will be remembered by Yankee fans for years to come.

Ben Clemens: Yeah. I was often annoyed by Sterling. I bet a lot of others were too. But as I wrote in my sendoff to him when he retired (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-things-i-liked-or-didnt-like-this-wee…), his voice was the pulse of the city for the decade I lived in New York

Ben Clemens: I feel like I heard him more than almost anyone else in my time there, and the bombastic nature of a lot of the calls, the really ridiculous catchphrases, etc., really provided structure to Yankees games

21127: I hereby nominate Nico’s double play from yesterday for Five Things.

Ben Clemens: I have a ‘cubs veteran defender savvy’ running list of things to put into a 5 things at some point

Ben Clemens: I’ll add that one on

Ben Clemens: there was a two-play sequence on April 24 where Hoerner just made two ridiculous, and also very cerebral, plays in a row

Ben Clemens: and I was like ugh is this just a hoerner post? but Bregman and Swanson (when healthy) are fun defenders too

Josh: It’s only been 6.1 IP, and the first start was a disaster, but Christian Scott has a 113 Stuff+. How excited should we be about him?

Guest: How much rope does Christian Scott have as a member of the Mets rotation? Will he reach the end of it?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m excited for him just because I think the stuff is real

Ben Clemens: will he figure it out? Will he be able to stay healthy and effective? Dunno, but given their injury situation and the fact that Senga wasn’t exactly lights out when healthy, I think they’re gonna give him plenty of rope

Lord Thunder: Will CJ Abrams be playing for the Nationals next season? What position will he be playing?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go with no, and second base

Opifijikl: How real is situational hitting to you? Some of my coworkers say that you should try to move runners over and pop the ball the other way instead of aiming for the fences each time and others say try to hit a homer each time – where do you fall on this? Thinking about how the red sox seem to do the latter but  it seems like they have better results on the rare cases where they do the latter.

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s not really about aiming so much as intent

Ben Clemens: Like, I do think it exists. Obviously it does to some extent. BUt I think it’s more about ‘okay, dial the swing down a bit for contact’ or ‘make sure to stay back so that I can try to at least punch it the other way if I’m beaten’

Ben Clemens: so much as wehre you’re aiming

Ben Clemens: the value of moving a runner over is not that high, contingent on you still making an out

Ben Clemens: and hitters giving up outs just doesn’t pan out well

Ben Clemens: but saying something like ‘I’m gonna dial down my swing 5% to put a ball in play’ seems maybe more reasonble to me?

Ben Clemens: I guess I take issue with ‘aiming for the fences’. That’s not really what people are doing. They’re trying to hit the ball at dangerous angles

Tyler: At what point do platoon splits really start to be indicative of skill set as opposed to just noise? I’m not anti-platooning, but I do wonder how many guys that are used more in a platoon role are actually capable of being an every-day player.

Ben Clemens: oh basically never for htiters

Ben Clemens: it’s like, roughly one career’s worth, if you’re looking at just results

Ben Clemens: now, you can look at granular stuff and get faster answers. And pitchers have more real platoon splits than batters, b/c they get to choose the shape of their pitches whereas batters face a whole squadron of different pitchers with different pitches

Ben Clemens: but basically, the answer is that lots of hittesr who are used in more of a platoon role are actually capable of being an everyday player, and that I think managers are too cute by half about platooning

Ben Clemens: like, not to pick on the Mets, but are you really that excited to bat Austin Slater because he happens to be righty?

Ben Clemens: and before him Tommy ham

Ben Clemens: Pham*

Ben Clemens: but those guys are just on the team because they bat right-handed. I don’t really think Pham projected as a better hitter, even against lefties, than some of the team’s lefty options (notably MJ Melendez)

Idiotic Failson: How hilarious would it be if one of the Sox made the playoffs, and it wasn’t the one from Boston

Ben Clemens: honestly, yes

Ben Clemens: that would be spectacular

HOF’er Dave Veres: Personally, who do you currently find more exciting, Wetherholt or Walker?

Ben Clemens: Wetherholt but that’s just because I’ve been burned a few times by Walker

Ben Clemens: gonna need to see more before I accept that he’s good now

Oaktown Blues: I really love the baseball sim in the FanGraphs lab. Does it take park effects into account when projecting individual statistics?

Ben Clemens: it does not, though it might soon. At the moment I’m working on times through the order adjustments to put into the sim, and I think ew’re working on some other stuff in the background too

Welland Jackfish: May the 4th be with you!

Ben Clemens: and with your force ghoist

Ben Clemens: ghost*

K’d Cavalli: This is a public service announcement to stop people from asking Claude to create meaningless Stuff+ models and posting them on X without analysis or criterion

Ben Clemens: My goodness, I could not agree more

Ben Clemens: I love vibe coding. I vibe code a lot of stuff for my use. But the way I do it is to figure out the math engine on my own, and then use AI for the scaffolding

Ben Clemens: if you tell it to come up with the math, you’re gonna have a bad time

Ben Clemens: like, this is a tool for programming, not a tool for deciding how to do analysis. And when people misunderstand that, they get in trouble, in my opinion

Appa Yip Yip: When Alejandro Kirk comes back would you send down Valenzuela to preserve the depth or just roll the dice sending down Heineman because he has been very very bad.

Ben Clemens: I’d probably send Heineman down. Don’t get too cute here, like, the Heinemans of the world can be found

Ben Clemens: the point is to win games. Don’t prioritize nebulous future flexibility (in backup catchers) over winning games

Junior Caminero Jr.: Are there any old school baseball practices or techniques that you think modern stats may be undervaluing or not fully capturing?

Ben Clemens: I actually had a good discussion on Effectively Wild about this last Friday, and I’d encourage you to listen to it if you get a chance

Ben Clemens: basically, I think that model blindness is a real thing. Once you make a model, you start thinking that the things it doesn’t capture aren’t real

Ben Clemens: I think there’s a lot of sequencing/game calling/deception things to pitching that are real but are very hard to quantify

Ben Clemens: I think that level-headedness as a hitter is really big – good luck measuring that

Ben Clemens: basically I think a ton of mental skills are poorly measured, and that when stat-type people (often like me) go wrong, they go wrong by saying ‘well we can’t measure it so it doesn’t exist’

Ben Clemens: a great example is seam-shifted wake, which didn’t exist right up until it did

Insert Witty Name Here: So I keep telling anyone who tells me May the 4th be with you that Star Wars sucks and they need to stop attaching themselves to something trivial, but then I realize half my wardrobe is related to sports teams and I’m just ridiculous.

Ben Clemens: haha yeah: I’m not quite a go wish people happy star wars day type but Star Wars was a big part of my childhood, so I identify with the nerds who love it

Ben Clemens: and also yeah, this is one of those situations where it’s not like it matters so much what makes them happy, so let them be happy

Ben Clemens: I’m with you overall, in other words

Welland Jackfish: Austin Slater is 100 points of OPS better against lefties than righties in his career, and the vs lefties mark is 80 points higher than MJ Melendez career OPS. Teams platoon because it usually makes sense

Ben Clemens: I mean, I might argue that it matters more that Slater has a combined .607 OPS over the last three years, but you know, who cares

Ben Clemens: statistics can be twisted to say what you want

Ben Clemens: Melendez, too, has been awful in recent years (though he’s mainly not played)

Ben Clemens: the point is that if you just look at someone’s career platoon splits, they’ll probably mislead you more than guide you. The platoon effect exists. Your best bet is to assume a STANDARD platoon adjustment, 5% for righties and 8% for lefties

Ben Clemens: individual, outlier true talent platoon skill among hitters is exceedingly rare

Matt: All fandoms are trivial. That’s what makes them fun!

SPArn: You can only have one: Tolle vs Schlittler, or the NL Central undercard version of Burns/Ashcraft? Just perfect that their answer to the AL East primetime heavyweight battle took place in the middle of the day on a Sunday

Ben Clemens: ooooooh man. I’m a big Chase Burns guy but I think I might still pick Tolle/Schlittler. I’m watching a lot of Schlittler wherever I can because I really am struggling to wrap my head around how he’s THIS good

Kevin: The way I describe it to others, making an out that advances the runner is not good (unless it scores a run) so much as it’s less bad than making an out that does not advance the runner.

Ben Clemens: yeah, that’s a good way of putting it

War2D2: Speaking of platooning for platoon’s sake: Moises Ballesteros. At some point they need to take off the training wheels, right? I get that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and the team is rolling right now, but at some point you have to see if the dude is a full-time hitter right?

Ben Clemens: I think so, for sure

Ben Clemens: like, I think he just is?

Ben Clemens: if he’s 8% worse against lefties, well, that’s still pretty freaking good

Ben Clemens: that’s a great exmaple. Platoon effect exists, but don’t platoon for platoon’s sake. Platoon when you think it’ll improve your outcomes

Welland Jackfish: I really enjoyed the Luis Arraez defense article, and how it used both the defensive stats and the eye test on individual plays to discuss his improvement. what did you think of it?

Ben Clemens: oh yeah, I absolutely loved it

Ben Clemens: I think it did a good job of explaining why it’s so hard to tease out defensive metrics, and why they’re so noisy, too

Ben Clemens: trying to algorithmically handle so many different plays is madeningly difficult

Ben Clemens: amusingly I feel like I’ve seen several great Arraez plays that weren’t in Michael’s article too

Ben Clemens: when I vote for Fielding Bible, I think I use a broadly similar methodology to Rosen, in that I spend a lot of time looking at the statistics, but then I also try to watch through people’s defense to get a good understanding for what the statistics are seeing

Ben Clemens: ugh, Skubal to the IL for loose body removal surgery

Ben Clemens: what a bummer

K’d Cavalli: JotCast question for you Ben – how many people do you typically have active for each Q&A? What percentage of questions are you usually able/willing to answer each session?

Ben Clemens: call it 200-300? and I have no idea on the percentage of questions I’m answering

Ben Clemens: but I just answer until I’m out of time

Ben Clemens: there are always far more questions than I have time for

Ben Clemens: you guys are just really interesting!

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: RE: Manoah

I’ll never forget that all star game when he was mic’d up on the mound and asked Smoltz what he should throw next and he answered “back foot slider” and Alek said that was a “sexy” answer.  Little did he/we realize that would be the highlight of his career.

Ben Clemens: 100%! It’s a bummer that he’s been bad because he’s a very fun personality

Okra: is it an indictment of an org when a guy like Jordan Walker has to go outside the org to unlock his full potential?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so, actually. Smart organizations in lots of fields use third parties where appropriate to extend their reach and be more efficient

Ben Clemens: it wouldn’t make sense to have sufficient hitting coaches to individualize an approach for everyone, I don’t think

Ben Clemens: I’m alright with it, basically

Appa Yip Yip: It’s like when players say the vibe in the clubhouse matters. I believe it does, but exactly how many extra hits are Impeccable Vibes worth a week?

Ben Clemens: well yeah, we don’t know and it’s hard to quantify. But being a jerk does really feel like a headwind to your ability to succeed in the majors unles syou’re really good

Ben Clemens: The old rule in finance (lightly paraphrased for language): “You can lose money or be a jerk. Choose one.”

Alex: Cedric Mullins seems COOKED.  How much leash does someone with 12 wRC+ get even if Tampa would have to eat money?

Ben Clemens: oh yeah, I think he’s just done

Ben Clemens: man, sad

Ben Clemens: another player I really enjoy

Ben Clemens: but the Rays are surely thinking about cutting ties

2B Confusion!: How you feeling about Jazz Chisholm’s slow start? What about Brice Turang’s hot start? Considering trading the latter for the former in a dynasty league

Ben Clemens: loved Michael Baumann’s article on Turang. I don’t have a strong opinion on Jazz, I think my view is basically unch from before the season. But I think I’d be intersted in that trade generaly in that I think Turang is a similar kind of player (depending on which categories you’re using) but I like his odds of doing it for longer

War2D2: So the Giants seem to be in a bit of a pickle. They still owe $225ish million on Devers, he’s been worth roughly -1 WAR regardless of flavor, and his statcast data doesn’t seem to indicate a resurgence coming anytime soon. The team is built from disparate parts with no apparent rhyme or reason. They were projected as a .500 club, but they’ve already banked a -8 in the loss column and even if they return to “average” instead of “bad” they seem to lack the horses to break off an extended run. I realize he hasn’t had a ton of time to get his arms around the job, but at what point do you think Buster POBOsey’s seat starts to get a little warm?

Tim L: The Giants (gestures broadly, disgustingly). How high can this dead cat bounce?

Ben Clemens: super curious what they’re gonna do

Ben Clemens: basically every veteran is performing abysmally

Ben Clemens: except Arraez. But the team’s three big stars have wRC+’s of 90, 61, and 56 respectively

Ben Clemens: they’re playing Heliot Ramos in the outfield every day and he’s not even an average hitter. Bailey has a 20 wrC+!!!!

Ben Clemens: It feels like they need to do something to blow this team up and change the trajectory, but like, ‘let’s build it around stars’ doesn’t work if the three guys you give the money to (Chapman, Adames, and Devers are the three big deals of the Posey era) combine for -0.8 WAR

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Hey Ben, I’m sure this isn’t your department, but would you be able to pass this on:

I was hoping to pull some data from fangraphs, but I don’t see the sort of information I’m looking for available in the custom table stats. I was hoping to find data on hitters who reach base on error and reach base on catcher’s interference (which I know is technically an error, but of a special type). Additionally, I was wondering if there was a way to pull players specs as a table data point (i.e. height, weight, handedness). I know a few of those player spec data pieces are available, but it could be really helpful to have more for some interesting studies on size and effectiveness, especially with ABS being tailored to such now. Are these something that you thing Fangraphs would be able to incorporate into the custom table feature?

Thank you!

Cade Smith: I (Guardians reliever Cade Smith) have my picture on the Fangraphs player page of Cade Smith, AA pitching prospect. Accident? Or am I pulling secret double duty in the Yankees’ farm system?

Ben Clemens: Linking these two b/c they’re site stuff; basically I think that those specs are probably not gonna come from us, and probably should come from the league, particularly now that they’re used as official measurements. And we get the pictures from a third party. We basically notify them when they have em wrong, which I’m sure will happen here too. But some stuff is just weirdly hard to get for the site. It’s not really my area, like you said, but I dabble in it. I’ll pass these along

bosoxforlife: The ABS challenge system has won me over. I was all in for completely automated calls but the anticipation is so much better. There needs to be a way to increase the number of challenges without it becoming invasive. How about 3 more challenges that when used are gone regardless of the outcome in addition to the 2 that presently exist? This would enable players to take a chance earlier in the game which players are becoming very reluctant to try.

Ben Clemens: yeah! The anticipation is just really fun

Ben Clemens: I think that maybe just adding a third chance to miss would be okay. or something like your rule, or maybe different batting and catching challenges/ I dunno, there’s room to tinker, but the early returns seem very good

ho hum: Judge is just quietly tied for the ML lead in homers with a 180 wRC+. Just ho hum. Also does anyone realize that, provided he doesn’t crash into another wall, he would be the first player ever – no caveats, no “right handed,” no “non-PED,” no “post integration,” no “AL” – to hit 50 HR 5 times. What’s more amazing, that he has a great chance to do it, or that it doesn’t really seem all that unusual?

Ben Clemens: yeah, it’s kind of amazing

Ben Clemens: I think the more amazing thing is that it doesn’t seem all that unusual

Ben Clemens: it’s not like it’s hard to quantify aaron judge’s success. There’s not something ineffable about his greatness

Ben Clemens: He hits the ball super freaking hard, a lot

Ben Clemens: he’s not outperforming based on one simple trick pitchers can’t stand

Roman Banthany: Are there signs that the Empire is about to strike back? Or am I starting to look more suited for Nerfherding?

Ben Clemens: haha I am just as excited for Anthony as I was before the year, and think that he’ll weather his slow start

Ben Clemens: but I haven’t really seen any signs that an eruption is imminent or anything

Ben Clemens: good player! early in the season! it’ll be alright

Baseball learner: How long do you think Volpe is stuck in the minors? Maybe they should have just benched McMahon?

Guest: thoughts on yankees optioning volpe in favor of caballero ? Also not relegating him to bench where they had an opening (Max Schuemann is on the active roster?). Also weird timing with promoting Lombard last week right ?

Ben Clemens: we talked about this last week and I was in favor of moving Caballero to third and having Volpe play short

Ben Clemens: I’m a bit surprised by their move but we’ll see!

DJ: Is overall pitcher strike percentage a stat you ever pay attention to? From what I can tell it seems like the sweet spot is somewhere in the 65-to-67% range. Would you agree?

Ben Clemens: my old boss (in a non-baseball field) loved strike percentage

Ben Clemens: I think it’s good! I think that if you’re just looking at top line, result-level statistics, it’s one fo the best at describing pitchers who are effective

Ben Clemens: I think you can do better by adding fancier process stuff, but it is a very underrated measure of how good someone is

Ben Clemens: basically if you have bad stuff and a high strike rate you will not survive in the amjors

Ben Clemens: and if you have good stuff but a low strike rate, your command is holding you back

Ben Clemens: and so you can kind of use it as a proxy, even htough it’s not measuring EXACTLY what we want b/c it counts balls in play in the ‘strikes’ part

Idiotic Failson: As an avid Yankee fan who’s listened to many John Sterling games I can understand why people got annoyed with his schtick. However, there was something immensely charming in a world where everything feels like it’s going sideways to hear a completely wholesome broadcast where you could disappear into the frivolity of baseball for a couple hours.

Ben Clemens: 100% concur

Ben Clemens: like I said, his calls often annoyed me, and yet they felt like part of the fabric of New York and I couldn’t imagine it any other way

bosoxforlife: I can’t believe I am giving up on the season on May 3rd, but this past weekend was the nadir of my fandom. Not only are the Red Sox shockingly bad but they are unwatchably boring. The bright side is that I can go to watch Franklin Arias and the Sea Dogs next week at the Taj Mahal of Double-A parks in Hartford next week without missing anything.

Ben Clemens: oooh, see, I’m partial to the Greenville stadium, although I guess they’re Hi-A

Ben Clemens: (my dad lived there for a while, it’s fun)

Ben Clemens: but yeah, man, the Sox ARE boring to watch so far this year

Ben Clemens: that’s a first for me. Their downswings are usually VERY entertaining

HOF’er Dave Veres: Between the Mets and Red Sox, who do you think is more likely to make the playoffs?

Ben Clemens: Mets, just because their schedule is a hair easier and I can imagine the Phillies falling apart

Ben Clemens: but it’s close! and our odds say it’s close too

Ben Clemens: they also say that the Twins are about as likely to make the plyaoffs as either, just to set expectations

Sonny: Manoah poked the NYY bear. Royce Lewis claimed he doesn’t slump and has an OPS that starts with a 6 since, and Devin Williams sacrificed the airbender to kill off the beard ban. Ball players tend to be a superstitious lot and I’m sure these events have done nothing to dissuade that notion.

Ben Clemens: 100%

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: RE: Striger

Given the circumstances (first start of the season, coming off the IL, and in Colorado) it was difficult to evaluate him yesterday.  Location, movement, whatever.  But he only touched 97 a couple times in the first and was sitting 93 in the 4th.  I’m afraid – especially after last year – that he’ll never be what he once was.

Legit concern or the new normal?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna give him a few more starts before I start to get too worried, but my key Strider metric is not velo but fastball shape

Ben Clemens: the big issue with him has been that when he isn’t getting on top of the ball and doing the whole drop and drive thing to produce these outlier approach angles (low release point, steep arm angle, pure backspin), his fastball plays down

Ben Clemens: whereas he jneeds it to play up

Okra: Do you a light is about to go off for Cam Smith?  Elite bat speed and foot speed.  Barrel rate improving.  Feels like he’s so close to figuring it out

Ben Clemens: yes but to be fair I’ve thought this for most of a calendar year now

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: The Mets are “fascinating” like Anya Taylor Joy’s peripheral vision

Ben Clemens: always here for some chess references

lukacs: is Gunnar Henderson still a back-up-the-Brinks-Truck type of guy? Three consecutive years of declining OPS and now a nasty K rate of 31.4 coupled with middling defense.

Ben Clemens: He is for me. He’s 25 and I feel alright that the strikeouts in 2026 aren’t gonna stick around. I think that this is actually an exmaple of a mental skill that’s hard to measure; I feel that he’s pressing a little bit b/c he started hot while the O’s started cold

Ben Clemens: he’s striking out a lot more in the last few weeks, basically

Oaktown Blues: Your old boss talked baseball that in depth with you? Jealous

Ben Clemens: I was always ‘the baseball guy’ at every job I had. That’s how you end up going from portfolio management to baseball writing

Surprised Pale Hose fan: on april 29, 2025 the white sox sent colson montgomery back to extended spring trainging to rehaul his swing/approach.  He returned and made his debut on july 4th last year.

since that time hes been the third best SS in all of the mlb.  

no question; just admiring the total turnaround

Ben Clemens: great reason to keep giving people chances, right?

Ben Clemens: like, this guy was hyped, and then he started slow

Ben Clemens: but that doesn’t mean he stopped being good, it just takes some guys a while to adjust

Ben Clemens: Very pleased to see him crushing it, he was a great OOTP card the last time I played and I got very attached to him as a result

Bob: Mike Trout is still good. I am happy 🙂

Rays fan dan: Are the rays good? I’m not convinced…

Ben Clemens: Bob: concur
Rays fan dan: concur

Ben Clemens: I dunno what’s going on with the Rays

Ben Clemens: they’r enot THIS good, I don’t think. but banking those wins helps a lot

Bucco Fever: With Skubal’s injury, does this guarantee that the a Yankee wins the Cy Young and, if so, what are the chances they pull of a threesome: MVP (Judge), Cy Young (Fried), and ROY (Schlittler)?

Ben Clemens: oh man. I hadn’t thought about that, but it’s probably fairly likely, huh? Schlittler is the prohibitive ROY favorite at the moment, Judge is Judge

Ben Clemens: eh, I guess it’s him and McGonigle, sorry

Ben Clemens: sorry, completely off that

Ben Clemens: Schlittler isn’t eligible

Ben Clemens: so, 0% odds

doughboy: This Skubal injury as a gut punch for the Tigers. Forgoing trade capital to go all in for one final season with a pitcher was risky. Is there any way to frame this positively for the team? Yes he may come back in August. I’m just a despondent Tigers fan riffing right now. What are your thoughts on it all?

Ben Clemens: I guess the positive frame is that this team is good enough to win the ALC without him. And him coming back fresh in the playoff chase will be a plus

Ben Clemens: but yeah, oof, that’s a real bummer

Appa Yip Yip: The Rays are back at the Trop and it’s sucking the life force out of their opponents like a cold, steel vampire.

Ben Clemens: so many catwalk balls

Ben Clemens: I forgot how funny they were

Okra: I feel like the theme of the season so far is that there is a lot of parity in the league because there are just a lot of good players now.  My theory is that with the rise of data in baseball paired with all the outside hitting/pitching labs, that more players than ever are reaching their full potential.  Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: could not agree more. This just popped up and I hammered ‘post question’ so I could respond to it

Ben Clemens: yes! baseball players are ALL improving far more than they used to

Ben Clemens: and that makes it much harder to understand who will pop. because there are more people trying to improve, and the tools of improvement have been democratizEd

Ben Clemens: also it’s more valuable to succeed now. so people are more serious about it

Ben Clemens: it’s a perfect storm

Matt VW: Has there ever been any work done on a potential ripple effect from a team’s best hitter? As in, if you’re a young guy called up to a team where the best hitter is Frank Thomas, you’re gonna take different notes than you would where the best hitter is Vlad Guerrero Sr.

Ben Clemens: never seen any. seems fascinationg. wouldn’t really know how to approach it without taking some more time to think about it but I do love the idea

bosoxforlife: I mentioned him earlier but the poster boy for giving a post- prospect who was considered a complete bust another shot is Mickey Moniak, a former 1 overall pick. He hit 24 dingers last year and is tearing the cover off the ball this year

Ben Clemens: great example of one

Ben Clemens: he’s carrying the Rockies!

Hmmm: Mets fans are, clearly, done with Senga. But if he’s “healthy” come June, what do you think is his role for 2026?

Ben Clemens: last week someone in the chat asked about Senga as a high-leverage reliever. I am more into that than i thought

Mr. Burrito: Has Dodgers management been playing with fire by letting their team age as much as it has? I’m not concerned about a bad week. But Teo, Freeman, Betts and, if you squint, Shohei, might be poised for a strong downturn, either this year or next, and the cavalry is mostly in A and AA. I’m not positive I see great alternatives to what the front office has done (except, perhaps, to trade T. Hernandez last off season), but can the up cycle of my favorite team last longer than this year?

Ben Clemens: they got some cash, you know?

Ben Clemens: they’ve*

Ben Clemens: like, they are to some extent, but on the other hand what do you want them to do, sign the best young free agent hitter available? They did that one!

Ben Clemens: their system relies on signing free agents. and it’ll definitely come with some awkward moments later on, when they try to figure out how long to play their stars even as they decline

Ben Clemens: but it’s hard to be too mad at it

Okra: What do I not know about San Diego or the Padres franchise in general to help explain how they just sold for $3.9B and the two most recent sales were Baltimore for $1.75B and New Yourk Mets for $2.4B.  I’m so confused

Ben Clemens: well, the Mets one is super weird and involved all kinds of weird tv rights and debt stuff, so I think the purchase price there is all kinds of asterisked

Ben Clemens: but the O’s sale, yeah. I mean, the O’s are a tougher market, I guess. BUt not THIS much tougher. I think what this means is that the price of sports teams is going up. and it’s going up across sports, and baseball is just getting borne along

Ben Clemens: also the Padres are good? and spend? and people think they’re good?

Ben Clemens: I do think that helps

Nick Madrigal: When Adley Rutschman and Stephen Kwan left Oregon State for pro ball, did even their coach think Kwan had a shot of generating more WAR by early 2026 than Rutschman?  Finally how the baseball bounces.

Ben Clemens: great username/question combo

Ben Clemens: Madrigal is one of my biggest evaluation misses… and probably explains why people were too low on Kwan, as a bonus

bosoxforlife: Can Aroldis Chapman bring back a useful piece? He is better than ever and a closer is useless to the Red Sox.

Ben Clemens: definitely. WHat’s a more time-honored tradition than getting an excellent player back for trading Aroldis Chapman at the deadline

Mateo: Thanks for chatting Ben! What’s the best U.S. time zone to watch baseball in?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s probably Mountain. I think Mountain is the best time zone for all sports

Ben Clemens: but my order is probably Mountain/West/Central/east?

Ben Clemens: I just hate staying up late to watch sports, moving from NYC to SF was a boon to my sleep

Ben Clemens: and my schedule, I’m a shift-stuff-earlier guy and so is the west coast

Insert Witty Name Here: Been a while since I popped a tennis question since I haven’t had time to watch.  But with Alcaraz out, Sinner is just clearly the best.   What is it where in a sport that quite a few people play, there’s only one who can be at Sinners level?  Am I jaded to much to think that something extracurricular is going on?

Ben Clemens: I think you’re too jaded. We’ve seen players do this a lot in recent years, really. Federer for a long time. Djokovic after his rivals declined. Alcaraz when Sinner was suspended

Ben Clemens: Also I think one thing about Sinner is that he’s a high floor kinda guy

Ben Clemens: low-risk, hit from the middle

Ben Clemens: so his particular style, much like Djokovic’s, is VERY good against inferior opposition

Ben Clemens: I do hope that some of the other players of this generation pick it up. BUt like…. I can see why it’s happening

Ben Clemens: his style is just so safe. and he’s so powerful

Surprised Pale Hose fan: to your earlier AL ROY talk, does Mune playing in Japan hurt his chances?  At this point i think its and AL Central race between delauter, mune and mcgonigle.  overall war will probably end up with mcgonigle, but if mune hits 40-50 hr it would be tough to overlook him

Ben Clemens: I do think that NPB imports are getting slightly docked for hte fact that they aren’t ‘true rookies’, for lack fo a btter way to say it

Ben Clemens: but for full disclosure, I checked some gambling markets and Mune is second in odds behind McG

Ben Clemens: basically I think ‘but he was already a high-level pro’ is a tiebreaker

Ben Clemens: and to be clear I’m VERY pro Mune, I think that has probably come across in my various discussions of him this year

My name!: Any reason to worry about Colt Emerson or Ryan Sloan? I know they’re young for level, but they aren’t doing great. Is Kade a better prospect than them at this point?

Ben Clemens: nah. it’s earyl, they’re young for their level, all these dudes seem good

Sal’s Mom: Do you think the White Sox flip Mune at the deadline? Would the bad press be worth the prospects? They could always try and resign him in the offseason

Ben Clemens: well he’s around through next season. but I definitely do not think they will do this, and I do not think they should

Ben Clemens: I think they’re getting 34 million dollars of PR value alone on this deal!

Ben Clemens: like, maybe if someone backs up the truck. but let’s be real, no one’s backing up the truck

My name!: Are the Mariners going to get it together? Cal’s EV is way down, Luis Castillo looks about done, and the bullpen is struggling far more than anticipated. I’m worried.

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll be alright. I didn’t think Cal was very likely to have a 160 wRC+ again, I think he’s gonna settle into being a plus hitter who plays good defense, but I think it was always a smart wager to say that 2025 would be his career year

Ben Clemens: and yeah, I mean, Castillo might be cooked. But he’s been trending that way for a while, and Hancock is looking good. I think the M’s are just fine, and that this is just normal contributor turnover

Appa Yip Yip: Maybe I’m weird but it feels a little insulting to the NPB to call these guys rookies. Like Mune and Okamoto are already superstars. They have billboards and endorsements and Japanese kids have been emulating their batting stances for years now

Ben Clemens: yeah

Ben Clemens: it’s just the rules, you know?

Ben Clemens: and that’s why I think that people implicitly lower them a bit in ROY voting

Ben Clemens: because they’re not REALLY rookies

Ben Clemens: even if they fit the technical definition

Jay: what are the appropriate ages for each MiLB level? I get that Salas is young for his level cuz he’s still a teenager, but at what point are you too old for your level? Especially at A & AA. (I get that a MLB vet playing on AAA squad hoping for a Last Chance Saloon callup is old, but you understand the gist)

Ben Clemens: baseball ref has a ‘relative to level’ age for every player

Ben Clemens: I just use that

Guest: João Fonseca has the early indicators of a challenger to the sinner alcaraz – only 19. This will be a big season for him

Ben Clemens: heck yeah. and Mensik perhaps too? Rafa Jodar is ridiculous for his age. Rune was playing at a career-best level before he tore his Achilles. I think that a new crowd will rise up

Ben Clemens: but they haven’t yet

Ben Clemens: I dunno if you saw Fonseca Sinner at IW, but it was a really fun match

J: I’m just willing into fruition that Nico Hoerner wins MVP while somehow losing the Gold Glove to Luis Arráez

Ben Clemens: omg, amazing

Sal’s Mom: Spencer Steer for Jarren Duran. Who says no?

Ben Clemens: oh man, I don’t know if this was your intent, but I love this question because it involves two players who I have taken a lot of flack for in trade value rankings

Ben Clemens: The Red SOx would say no. I think that’s certain. But I am with you that it’s closer than you think

Guessed: If you had to guess right now, who wins the NL ROY race? Wetherholt and Stewart being position players gives both of them an inside lane on McLean imo

Ben Clemens: I’ll take McLean

Ben Clemens: just b/c I think voters often reward the guy who looks the most like a generational player, and I’m not there on Stewart or Wetherholt yet

Ben Clemens: there’s a lot of baseball left to be played, obv

Ben Clemens: but me personally, I’d probably be worried that Stewart has cooled off hard

Ben Clemens: oh by the way, a quick disclaimer here

Ben Clemens: I am not a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America

Ben Clemens: I do not have a vote on these awards. I would not speculate on the voting on awards which I had even the potential of any sway over

Josh: Was doing some deep dives on sinker movement breakdowns. I’m a relative layman when it comes to data formulation, but I know how useful “rise” can be on fastballs generally. With sinkers, is there any analysis on how useful rise (or in another way, decreased sink) can be beneficial or detrimental to batted ball results (from pitcher’s perspective)?

Ben Clemens: it’s been a while, and I can’t think of anything offhand on this but let me think for a bit

Ben Clemens: this is one of my favorite articles I’ve ever written:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-sinker-paradox/

Ben Clemens: another good one:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-the-heck-is-a-flat-sinker-anyway/

Ben Clemens: and finally:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/thinking-about-sinking/

Ben Clemens: jeez, looks like I’ve written a lot about aggregate sinker production in my career

Ben Clemens: anyway your specific question is not answered in these. But hopefully they offer some avenues for further research

Josh R: Justin Wrobleski next on the Ross Stripling, Tony Gonsolin get one great year out of him then he quietly goes away train?

Ben Clemens: oh 100%. Chicken Strip is who I think of when I see Wrobleski throwing

Ben Clemens: (pretty sure that was his player’s weekend jersey)

Ben Clemens: alright, this was an XL-size chat today but I have to go get started on lunch

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week everyone, and I hope you don’t need loose body surgery, but if you do, I hope your recovery is speedy and unevetnful