Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat in my new Tuesday noon ET time slot. I’m still trying to wake up after a late night in the Bronx, where things quickly spiraled out of control for Carlos Rodón and the Yankees https://blogs.fangraphs.com/that-escalated-quickly-royals-rally-agains…

Jay Jaffe: I was saddened to hear today about the death of Luis Tiant. Quite a memorable and colorful character, and a pitcher who I think probably belongs in the Hall of Fame. Wrote a bit about Tiant in light of S-JAWS a couple of years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-best-of-the-unens…. I’m going to try to figure out when I can fit in a tribute amid my playoff coverage.

Jay Jaffe: Which reminds me, thank you to everyone who chimed in with a kind word about my Pete Rose piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-pete-rose-1941-2024-the-hustle-has-fin…. I got a very nice note yesterday from Mark Monroe, the director of the HBO documentary for which I was interviewed, Charlie Hustle and the Matter of Pete Rose. Check it out if you want a no-holds-barred look at a very complicated figure.

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Phillies phan: Can you think of any possible reason for why the phillies bullpen decided to give up so many runs all of sudden? Matt Strahm had been solid all season and had duds back to back games

Jay Jaffe: Because stuff like this inevitably happens? Even the best bullpens get knocked around once in awhile, because relief pitching is a high-variance job. Most of these guys are two-pitch pitchers, and if one of those pitches isn’t working well, it’s trouble. It’s also worth remembering that particularly with division rivals, hitters can get multiple looks at a reliever and that can shift the advantage in their favor.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where it is somehow still 100 degrees every day. I’ve got an instructs game today at 11 so we’ll keep today’s chat pretty tight to the hour so I can prep my gear and drive there. I have a cat draped over one forearm right now, this is a very popular chat.

James: Always appreciate that chats, Eric! SD system has thinned quite a bit, who is the next potential dude behind De Vries

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Humberto Cruz has a shot to be a big deal. Super smooth and projectable, could have premium command and a couple plus pitches.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like he’s been shut down for the year, but the HS kids from the draft class throw this weekend here in AZ so I’m hoping to see Mayfield then. He could also be an answer to your question.

Guest: how much does TJ knock Christian Scott down, FV-wise and future role-wise?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’ll start and be a mid-rotation guy (provided the rehab goes well, etc.).

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

No longer a Ms fan: Does ZIPs think the Seattle Mariners should disband as a baseball team? What a disappointment they are.

Dan Szymborski: If the White Sox get to stay together, the M’s certainly do

Dan Szymborski: Maybe they should bring back the trident logo as primary

Chooch: Do you have an opinion on home/away splits for starters? I’m not trying to say he hasn’t pitched well this year, but the Phillies seem to be entertaining the idea of throwing Sanchez game 2 to get him a home start.

Does that enter your calculus going into a series; how would you go about planning your starters in the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found that much value on it

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Today I bring you a comparatively brief chat (just an hour) and the final one from this 2 pm ET time slot. Next week, I’ll be part of our group Wild Card chat (details tba), and in two weeks, I’m planning to debut in the 12 pm ET slot on Tuesdays.

Jay Jaffe: This is mainly because parenting responsibilities — mostly pick-ups from school  — have been cutting into this 2 pm time. I hope those of you who have joined me here will make the journey.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece today that’s the first of a four-part series, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the remaining contenders in a Replacement Level Killers-style trip around the diamond, only this time with pitching as well. This first installment is devoted to the best in the NL https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-strongest-positions-on-the-remaining-n…

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow will be the best in the AL. Yesterday I checked in on what’s left of the Wild Card races https://blogs.fangraphs.com/setting-up-a-wild-card-final-week/

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

brooklyn resident: Ohtani: best DH season ever?

Dan Szymborski: Chat Time Great Action Copter Passion Justice GO!!!!!

Champdo: Chances Parker Meadows plays this well next season?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what you call well!

Dan Szymborski: But ZiPS does have him up to 2.3 WAR in like 540 PA

Dan Szymborski: That he *appears* to be at least a mild positive in CF really makes him playable

Guest: Who is the biggest sleeper prospect for 2025 season based on ZiPS?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of September. I apologize for that — this current time slot hasn’t worked out well lately with dad duties and so I’m going to explore moving to a 12 pm time slot

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ve got a piece up today about the returns of Buxton and Correa to a Twins team that has been pretty bad lately https://blogs.fangraphs.com/byron-buxton-and-carlos-correa-are-back-bu…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I checked in on Eugenio Suárez’s turnaround and how it’s helped the Diamondbacks take hold of a Wild Card spot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarezs-extended-hot-streak-contin…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

Insert Witty Name Here: So uhhh….where ya been?

Jay Jaffe: A lot of times that I miss the chat it’s because I have to pick up my daughter from school or (in the summer) camp.   Just tough to get around needing to happen in the middle of a chat.

Tech support: Embedding on fangraphs website is broken. Missing opening <

Dan Szymborski: Uh oh

Dan Szymborski: OK, this seems to be fixed now

Dan Szymborski: But I’ll have to type pretty slowly since nobody’s in here yet

Oddball Herrera: So I was looking at Dylan Crews’ first home run.  It was a homer in 30/30 parks, but had an expected BA of like .330…I understand that a 30/30 homer may not have a 1.000 xBA, but isn’t it a little odd that what was apparently a no-doubter was by xBA much more often than not an out?

Oddball Herrera: My last question makes me wonder what the ‘worst’ 30/30 ballparks home run by xBA looked like

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. Apologies that it’s been a few weeks since my last one. Deadlines and summer travel will do that. Anyway, I’m currently working on a piece checking in on the seasons of the Boras Four, none of which has proceeded as planned, and on Monday I looked into Shohei Ohtani’s 40-homer, 40-steal feat, his odds of getting to 50-50 (thanks to Dan Szymborski), and some other 30-30 and 40-40 (!) candidates https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-joins-the-40-40-club-in-gran…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show…

Eli: In a previous chat you mentioned how the Yankees and Gleyber need to move on from each other. Do you think Gleyber’s career is salvageable elsewhere? And from the outside is there something about how the Yankees develop young players (not named Judge) that seems broken?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I think Torres is salvageable. He’s only 27 years old, and he’s shown the ability to play at an above-average clip as recently as last year (and he’s been better since the All-Star break, .273/.354/.406, 117 wRC+).

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s anything particularly damning about the Yankees’ development of young players, even for all the shrill screeching about Anthony Volpe’s slumps. He’s put up 3.5 WAR this year despite his offensive inconsistency, and if he’s merely a plus defender with a position-average bat, that’s still a pretty solid outcome. Austin Wells has panned out nicely on both sides of the ball, Ben Rice not so much (but his stock was much lower). Peraza’s injuries have gotten in the way. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt have been good outcomes

Who’s Fabio: Hi Jay – thank for the chat.  What happens to official stats after yesterday’s Jays – Boston game as it is a continuation of a game in June.  It was technically Chad Green’s 3rd save of the year I think so does someone have to adjust all the stats in the boxscores after?  Does Jimenez’s playing time get started in June now?