Dan Szymborski: Greetings, FanGrapheteers!

Harshil Jani: Hi Dan. I would like to know what the accuracy of the Fangraphs pre-game win probabilities under the ‘live scoreboard’ section. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually know; there’s a lot of data on our proejction probabilities, but I don’t have access to our historical numbers of game vs. game.

Dan Szymborski: I imagine they’re best when the teams are closely matched, since they’re game state based.

Dan Szymborski: At some point, we’ll have a ZiPS in-game version of this installed (you may have seen the beta in the playoffs), and that will know more about the relative strengths of the team

John: I know you’re the ZiPS guy, so if there is someone better to ask let me know, but how does Devers have such an elite batted ball profile despite pretty middling bat tracking metrics?  Average bat speed and poor squared up %, but elite in avg exit velo, barrels and hard hit %.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my Tuesday afternoon chat. Please bear with me a moment while I get my lunch order squared away…

Jay Jaffe: OK that’s done — fried chicken sandwich on the way…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a look at the Alexis Díaz trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-hope-to-fix-alexis-diaz-and-bolste…), the latest in a long line of fix-it attempts by the Dodgers, who now have an astounding 15 pitchers on the injured list.

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of which, last night’s Mets-Dodgers game was a thriller that kept me up way too late. A Lindor leadoff homer! An Ohtani answer homer with a great call by Gary Cohen, and a game-tying sac fly in the 9th! And yet another Tanner Scott meltdown that decided the game.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on the Astros’ recent surge and slew of injuries that should go up shortly. And now, on with the show

drplantwrench: i’ve had this debate with some baseball friends – which is the better stat: Quality Starts or Win-Loss?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from the Cardinals backfields in Florida. I’m getting started a few minutes early so I can focus on the game a little sooner, as we’re about to get underway. Plus, there are already a ton of questions in the queue.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hotspotting, so apologies if things are spotty, internet-wise.

Eric A Longenhagen: In any case, thans for being here.

Guest: Any advice on how to get into/improve scouting abilities? Any resources that have been imperative in your learning?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would read Jason Parks’ chapters in the second edition of Extra Innings, I would read Dollar Sign on the Muscle, Future Value, and go see bad baseball at your local colleges.

Dallas: What’s the balance between actual production vs. K rates? I look at guys like Esmerlyn Valdez and Konnor Griffin, each have performed admirably this season and have up arrows, however both of their K rates are relatively high. Is the production legit or is the K rates red flags for long term success?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all had great holiday weekends here. The weather in NYC was great, allowing for a lot of outdoor time — I avoided Friday night’s rain at Citi Field and caught Dodgers-Mets the next night. Wrote about Will Smith and Dalton Rushing in a piece that will be up soon.

Jay Jaffe: On Friday, I wrote about the Astros’ Christian Walker (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/christian-walker-hasnt-fixed-the-astros-fi…), who hit a walker-off home run yesterday. (sorry, not sorry)

Jay Jaffe: if you missed “Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe, and the Hall of Fame” — the SABR roundtable I did with Rose biographer Keith O’Brien, ESPN reporter Don Van Natta Jr., and Black Sox expert Jacob Pomrenke, it’s now up on YouTube here

Jay Jaffe: and with that, let’s chat…

KC: Mayer has looked solid so far but the Red Sox are flailing, can we expect Roman soon to try to add more offense with Bregman out for a while?

Jay Jaffe: no sooner had I written about a set of twists and turns in the Red Sox infield — Trevor Story’s slump, Kristian Campbell’s work at first base, and Marcelo Mayer’s work at second (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-storys-slump-and-the-never-ending-s…) than Bregman got injured, leading the Sox to try Mayer out at third.

Dan Szymborski: Chat time chat time, something that rhymes with chat time

Dan Szymborski: lime!

Dan Szymborski: slime!

Dan Szymborski: grime!

Dan Szymborski: splat chime!

Dan Szymborski: fat dime!

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn, and while that may not make a difference to you if you’re staring at a computer screen, it’s lightening my mood just a bit.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Braves’ outfield situation with the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. finally on the horizon https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-the-braves-recover-from-their-sluggish-…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on the Twins’ just-completed 13-game winning streak. That’s in the pipeline and should go up shortly.

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow evening at 7 PM ET, I’ll be participating in a SABR roundtable on the subject of the recently reinstated Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, along with Keith O’Brien (author of the recent Rose bio Charlie Hustle) and ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr., who has reported on the reinstatement efforts regarding both Rose and Jackson. Jacob Pomrenke, an expert on Jackson and the 1919 Black Sox scandal, will serve as moderator. https://sabr.org/latest/this-week-in-sabr-may-16-2025#shoelessjoe

Jay Jaffe: It was just after last week’s chat wrapped up that all hell broke loose with the Rose news. My coverage of it is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/say-it-aint-so-commissioner-manfred-posthu…

Jay Jaffe: And with that housekeeping out of the way, on with the show!