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Dan Szymborski: Uh oh

Dan Szymborski: OK, this seems to be fixed now

Dan Szymborski: But I’ll have to type pretty slowly since nobody’s in here yet

Oddball Herrera: So I was looking at Dylan Crews’ first home run.  It was a homer in 30/30 parks, but had an expected BA of like .330…I understand that a 30/30 homer may not have a 1.000 xBA, but isn’t it a little odd that what was apparently a no-doubter was by xBA much more often than not an out?

Oddball Herrera: My last question makes me wonder what the ‘worst’ 30/30 ballparks home run by xBA looked like

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. Apologies that it’s been a few weeks since my last one. Deadlines and summer travel will do that. Anyway, I’m currently working on a piece checking in on the seasons of the Boras Four, none of which has proceeded as planned, and on Monday I looked into Shohei Ohtani’s 40-homer, 40-steal feat, his odds of getting to 50-50 (thanks to Dan Szymborski), and some other 30-30 and 40-40 (!) candidates https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-joins-the-40-40-club-in-gran…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show…

Eli: In a previous chat you mentioned how the Yankees and Gleyber need to move on from each other. Do you think Gleyber’s career is salvageable elsewhere? And from the outside is there something about how the Yankees develop young players (not named Judge) that seems broken?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I think Torres is salvageable. He’s only 27 years old, and he’s shown the ability to play at an above-average clip as recently as last year (and he’s been better since the All-Star break, .273/.354/.406, 117 wRC+).

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s anything particularly damning about the Yankees’ development of young players, even for all the shrill screeching about Anthony Volpe’s slumps. He’s put up 3.5 WAR this year despite his offensive inconsistency, and if he’s merely a plus defender with a position-average bat, that’s still a pretty solid outcome. Austin Wells has panned out nicely on both sides of the ball, Ben Rice not so much (but his stock was much lower). Peraza’s injuries have gotten in the way. Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt have been good outcomes

Who’s Fabio: Hi Jay – thank for the chat.  What happens to official stats after yesterday’s Jays – Boston game as it is a continuation of a game in June.  It was technically Chad Green’s 3rd save of the year I think so does someone have to adjust all the stats in the boxscores after?  Does Jimenez’s playing time get started in June now?

Dan Szymborski: Thank you those in attendance for fulfilling your legally required duties to appear here.

Justin: Hi Dan, what are your thoughts on the Victor Robles extension?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s unreasonable for anyone

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit a lot better last two seasons, but in a limited role. But there’s certainly a good deal of risk

Dan Szymborski: but theres’ upside too. People forget that Robles was once one of the elite prospects and had a *very* solid rookie season

Dan Szymborski: But there’s downside too since he has like a low .600s OPS since COVID

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon gang!

Dan Szymborski: Well, not an organized gang

Dallas: Why can’t Ke’Bryan Hayes hit more consistently, and is there any chance some team might be willing to trade for him this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a decent contact hitter, but his pitch selection has always been rather dysfunctional; he’s not a Javy Baez-esque flailer, but he hits a lot of rather mediocre pitches and lets a lot of good ones go by

Dan Szymborski: Add in taht he has power upside and the swings in fortune can be pretty intense

White Sox FO: What “outside the box” manager should I use for the rest of the season?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s been awhile since I did one of these thanks to even more July chaos than usual — Replacement Level Killers, trade deadline and Hall of Fame stuff. Glad to finally squeeze one of these in.

Jay Jaffe: On Friday, I wrote about the Padres gaining ground not just in the NL Wild Card race but also the NL West race https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-have-tightened-the-nl-west-race…. I mention that because I’ve got a piece on the Braves that’s about to run, looking at how they’ve slipped into a three-way tie atop the NL Wild Card standings.

Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I took a look at the news regarding yet another lost season for Mike Trout, which put me in mind of Ken Griffey Jr.’s rough run in his 30s https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-another-lost-season-for-mike-trout-a-…

Jay Jaffe: (grateful for the ZiPS help from Dan Szymborski on that one and yes, i’ll take the over on the post-2024 Trout projection)

Ryan: For what Preller had to cut in payroll and trading Soto I think this is his best job as a GM to date. It just seems like a more complete team then any of his previous iterations. Thoughts on the job he’s done with the restrictions placed on him?

Jay Jaffe: As noted above, I wrote about the Padres on Friday. They’ve dealt with some significant injuries but this has turned out to be a deeper squad than last year, in part because they somehow lucked into a Jurickson Profar career year after a season that might have been a career-ender, and because the Jackson Merrill center field move has paid off so well. I thought they did very well in augmenting their bullpen at the deadline.

Long story short, the Padres’ strength in scouting under Preller, and his philosophy about trading them instead of getting too attached to them, has allowed him to reinforce his rosters and remain competitive even while dealing with some limitations.

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!

Ryan: Do you think the Padres have a shot of running down the Dodgers? The offense is humming and that bullpen looks insanely filthy.

Dan Szymborski: A shot? Yes. But it’s an uphill fight. Dodgers are an excellent team. The Padres need to not just be really good, they have to have the Dodgers hit some of their swingy injury risk in their high-end talent

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I think I’d take the over on what the true mystical probability is that we can’t actually tell

Sam: ZiPS seems to really like Danny Jansen to the Sox.  Is it because his swing is well suited to Fenway?  Similarly in the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen’s full year projection is with the Red Sox now – is this projecting him playing half his games at Fenway?

Dan Szymborski: No, the site doesn’t reformulate the old projections