Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Guest: Has this season increased or decreased Justin Verlander’s odds of reaching 300 wins?  This season feels like a median outcome to me, but curious if Zips sees something different.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have ZiPS open, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s dropped a little bit

Dan Szymborski: Verlander matched his projections, but remember, he wasn’t at 50% to win 300 games

Dan Szymborski: He kinda needs to beat his win projections by a bit

Guest: Enjoyed the milestone article looking 3,000 hits.  Any other milestones that you’re planning to look at soon?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat — the first one in two weeks. It’s been a lively time around Casa Jaffe-Span lately due to pending real estate transactions; I missed last week’s caht and was late setting this one up. Since i’m also late in securing lunch, I’m going to let the queue fill up for a few more minutes and then light this candle.

Chadwick: Is this the stadium proposal that gets done in St. Pete?

Jay Jaffe: This isn’t just a proposal, they actually appear to have a deal, so yes. Other than the fact that they literally could not get any other deals done until now, what I don’t get is how this one solves one of the big problems that Tropicana Field has faced, which is simply getting to the ballpark given its location.

Jay Jaffe: Because this park will be right near the current one

Jay Jaffe: and it’s a dome, not even a retractable.

Jay Jaffe: it will be interesting to see how this ignites the discussion of expansion to 32 teams. When I wrote about Salt Lake City’s surprising bid, it was clear that solving the Oakland and Tampa Bay stadium issues was necessary and both have now been, uh, dealt with.

Dan Szymborski: Greetings, fair FanGraphs reader, it is a time for chats and chidings.

Dan Szymborski: Also, since it was being stubborn about getting on the front page, my queue is almost nothing, so this is YOUR best time for random nonsense.

Ryan Z: Hey Dan, we are starting to see talk of the next CBA negotiations taking place and what each side wants. Do you expect we’ll have another lockout? Missed games in 2027?

Dan Szymborski: While it’s too early to say exactly *what* will happen, I’m not particularly optimistic.

Dan Szymborski: The players complaints heading into the last CBA are going to be basically unchanged except for minimums salaries.

Dan Szymborski: The luxury tax threshold still grows slower than inflation and WAY slower than MLB revenue growth

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to my first chat of this sweltering (in Brooklyn where it’s 92 degrees) September!

Jay Jaffe: Hope you all had nice long weekends. Just before the weekend I did this about Tony Gonsolin’s Tommy John surgery, a now-outdated snapshot of the Dodgers’ rotation (ugh) and a look at TJS trends in general https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tony-gonsolin-and-recent-tommy-john-surger…
I’m working on something on Royce Lewis for tomorrow.

KC Pain: Better Star Wars name, Cal Quantrill or Akil Baddoo?

Jay Jaffe: Baddoo is a name that seems seems straight out of Phantom Menace, though I’d also believe that Quantrill flew alongside Luke Skywalker in A New Hope and/or Empire Strikes Back.

v2micca: Even three years in, I really dislike the extra innings ghost-runner rule.  Which is more likely, the rule is eventually applied to post season play, or the rule is removed from regular season play.  (Yes, I know there is a third option but I want to know which you think is more likely of the first two)

Jay Jaffe: I’d say more likely to be applied to postseason play BUT I very, very much doubt that will happen. The move to do so in regular season just makes life simpler for teams (and players), and they tend to like it because it gets them home earlier, but I don’t see anybody hungering to have a playoff game decided that way.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to the last August edition of my chat for 2023!

Jay Jaffe: I’m a bit giddy because as of 20 minutes ago, we have accepted offers on our current and future homes in Brooklyn

Jay Jaffe: it’s been a journey, folks

Jay Jaffe: anyway, yesterday I ran a piece on Félix Bautista’s UCL injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-great-summer-ends-with-a-bummer-as-the-o…. Still no word on the severity of it, but I wouldn’t really read into that as good news. The Orioles aren’t the most transparent bunch when it comes to injuries or… other matters

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on Bryce Harper’s resurgence that’s about to go live

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, let’s get to this one…

Dan Szymborski: And we are LIVE

Dan’s Mom: Daniel, I am still waiting for my DeadLinesmas present.  Should I just come over and pick it up?

Dan Szymborski: No, they’re supposed to be presents for people who know what the trade deadline is.

BlueJayMatt: Which13 Jays players? I hit return and the question got sent early, sorry Dan

BlueJayMatt: In your excellent article this morning you talk about Toronto saying “Blue Jays have an absurd 13″…”offensive players under contract who project at 1.5 WAR or more in 2024”.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t expect me to give *all* the secrets away do ya?

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, welcome to my Tuesday chat. I’m back from California and will dive in here in a few minutes after I add a brief addition to today’s forthcoming piece about the Giants’ offensive struggles. Stand by for a few…

Jay Jaffe: OK, that’s done. Had to stop the presses on a piece about the Giants’ offense falling off a cliff because of this earth-shaking news https://twitter.com/extrabaggs/status/1694045181362753778?s=20

Jay Jaffe: that piece will be out shortly.

Matt VW: Mookie Betts is on pace for 44 homers. Can you think of anyone else his size who’s hit 40? Campanella’s listed at the same (alleged) height, but had a really different build…

Jay Jaffe: With the caveat that listed heights don’t always match up with reality, there have been three seasons in which a player 5’9″ (Mookie’s listed height) or shorter have hit 40 homers, none of them recent: Mel Ott 42 in 1929, Hack Wilson (who was 5’6″ but barrel-chested) 56 in 1930, and Campanella 41 in 1953.

Jay Jaffe: José Ramírez, listed at 5’9″ and considerably more Mookie-shaped, hit 39 in 2018