Dan Szymborski: BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL

Jay Jaffe: Hi everybody and a very pleasant good afternoon (or morning) to you wherever you may be. Happy 2023 baseball season and welcome to our Opening Day chat!

Ross: Describe a realistic scenario where the Mariners win the west?

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I don’t think it would take all that much — a couple of key rotation injuries to Houston and a few guys having bigger-than-expected seasons for Seattle while the Angels and Rangers don’t quite get there.

Davy Andrews: Happy baseball to all.

Dan Szymborski: The Mariners win a number of games in 2023 that is a larger number than the number of games that the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels win!

Jay Jaffe: Good evening, folks, and welcome to our WBC Finals chat!

Guest: Why isn’t Japan starting one of Darvish/Ohtani? They seem clearly better than Imanaga.

Jay Jaffe: Ohtani started five days ago so guess they didn’t want to mess with his every sixth-day routine, but he could pitch an inning in relief. Darvish… not sure, as the complaint has been that he hasn’t been getting enough buildup here, but I’d expect he’s good for 2-3 innings tonight

Kyle Kishimoto: i theorized last night he could get an early hook for darvish to burn some USA bench bats (ex anderson starting over mcneil today)

Ann Xing: Who are the potential relievers for the US team?

Kyle Kishimoto: maybe they don’t want to use bard in high leverage, but the combo of williams/adam/bednar/pressly/ottavino will be great, with loup there too hopefully to deal with the 5 lefties stacked atop japan’s lineup.

Dan Szymborski: It is time. A time for chats.

Nick: Jeff Zimmerman raised some concerns about Jordan Walker’s swing and miss. What’s your level of concern about it? K rates in the minor leagues seem fine but I’m trying to figure out what we should realistically expect from him.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super concerned, his strikeout rates aren’t really a problem in the minors, and for a prospect, I think passivity is even more dangerous than aggressiveness

Dan Szymborski: It’s an argument I had with people who were angry that Kris Bryant got like a three WAR projection his rookie season

Dan Szymborski: It was all “but minor league strikeout rate”

Dan Szymborski: But when a guy has a 1.000 OPS or something, they’re *incentivized* to be aggressive.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and Happy Pi Day, folks! I’m in the middle of a snowstorm with a sick kiddo underfoot and a contractor overstaying his welcome, but we’re gonna try to get this one in.

Jay Jaffe: ‘Tis the season when I plug away at the Positional Power Rankings, so I haven’t published anything since Friday’s look at how the injuries of some high-profile starting pitchers will be handled within their various rotations https://blogs.fangraphs.com/painter-rodon-gonsolin-and-quintana-are-th…

Jay Jaffe: Since then, we’ve gotten word that José Quintana’s injury could indeed keep him out of action for a few months, à la Chris Sale (whom I also wrote about last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-begins-his-latest-comeback/)

Jay Jaffe: On the subject of starters I also took a look at the most- and least-improved rotations following a busy offseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/spotlighting-this-seasons-most-and-least-i…

Chip: Most knowledgeable people make the point that you shouldn’t read too much into spring training results, mostly referring to misplaced optimism or pessimism. What if a guy is continuing an already bad trend? I’m thinking specifically of Spencer Torkelson who was bad last year, changed his bat, and now is bad in spring training. Is he, just, maybe not a major league player?

Jay Jaffe: Count me as one who thinks you shouldn’t read too much into spring results, or dismiss a 23-year-old with 70-grade raw power after just 404 major league plate appearances. Should he be in the majors yet? Maybe not, given his modest results at Triple-A. Should you build your fantasy roster around him? Hell no. But 29 spring ABs in the first half of March against variable competition tells you nothing about where his career is going

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and happy World Baseball Classic 2023 start day to those of you celebrating!

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about Max Scherzer’s first two spring starts and his adventures with the new pitch clock. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-tests-the-limits-of-the-new-p…

Jay Jaffe: For tomorrow I’m working on something about Chris Sale’s return

Jay Jaffe: Today: just chat, so pitter-patter let’s get at ‘er

Farhandrew Zaidman: True or false: the best Team Japan WBC pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani is Yoshi Yamamoto.

Jay Jaffe: I honestly don’t know much about Yamamoto but I know there’s a large contingent who would point to Roki Sasaki, who struck out 35.3% of all hitters last year and walked just 4.7%. I’ve seen clips but looking forward to watching him pitch

Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time, hopefully!

Dan Szymborski: I was a little late setting it up becasue I was giving my mom a ride to pick up her car from the mechanic

Dan Szymborski: Seems to be on the front page and I see questions, so cautiously optimistic!

Walla Walla Ron Washington: Hey Dan! So where are we on the whole ‘lineup protection’ question. A few years ago, didn’t a lot of analysis show that it basically doesn’t exist in the traditional way we think about? Yet I still hear many folks cite it constantly. Has there been any new data?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen anyone tackle this in a new way for quite a while, simply because the studies weren’t in the middle

Dan Szymborski: It was pretty clear that the protection that appears to exist is what’s called “Weak protection” meaning, that in extreme cases of difference in ability, intentional walks go up

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the second edition of my chat in my new (old?) timeslot. I’ve got a piece up today about Gavin Lux’s season-ending knee injury (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gavin-luxs-knee-injury-further-compromises…), and yesterday checked in on Joey Votto as he work his way back from shoulder surgery (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joey-votto-tries-to-bounce-back/).

Broken Bat: Looks to me the Dodgers must procure a shortstop to support the aging Rojas who all of a sudden the light is shining on. I don’t think they one ready in MILB. So… what team do they toss one of their pitching prospects to get one from? Would they dare pay Baez? I think Tigers would be content to get out of that contract for a decent tier 3 SP. What about trading with Reds? The ex Pirate Frazier? Might be available cheap. Thoughts on what they do?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the Dodgers see anything as “must” at least in the near term. They have reason to hope that after undergoing wrist surgery, Miguel Rojas can provide something closer to a league-average bat with plus defense filling in for Lux, and that they have enough depth to allow Chris Taylor to play there as well. There’s no way on God’s green earth they’re taking on Javier Baez’s contract or giving up a starting pitcher prospect for him, and I doubt they see Isiah Kiner-Falefa as an option, either. Not sue who you see on the Reds as an option, but ex-Pirate Adam Frazier (now an Oriole) isn’t a shortstop, totaling just 26 innings at the position in the majors.

One guy worth keeping an eye on is the Cardinals’ Paul DeJong,  who after being displaced by Tommy Edman worked to rebuild his swing after being sent down last year, though the dividends certainly weren’t apparent at the major league level. If he’s recovered his form, he could be of interest.

Oaktown Blues: Is a Cristian Pache DFA in the cards this spring or will the A’s give him one more shot?

Jay Jaffe: he’s out of options but as the A’s are playing for crickets, I imagine they’ll give him every chance to hold onto a roster spot unless they have a crunch that they need to alleviate.

Still not sure I can name six A’s even after looking at their depth chart.

TheVoiceInYourHead: Why are people so stubborn about Rojas taking over for Lux?