Here’s an undeniable truth: Your performance matters most in the biggest spots. It sounds silly to write that, in fact. It’s so obviously true. I’m not just talking about professional sports, or even just sports. No one cares if you nailed your violin solo in your basement when you were practicing it Tuesday evening; they care whether you fumbled the chord progression in Thursday’s big recital.

That self-evident truth has led to decades of squabbling over baseball performances. It’s incontrovertibly true – and yet it seems that players don’t have a lot of control over when they have their best performances. If you want to start an annoying discussion with your uncle (not my uncle, hi Roy, but your generic back-in-my-day uncle), just talk about RBIs or pitcher wins and say something about clutch. You won’t thank me, because just imagining that discussion is giving me anxiety, but you’ll certainly prove my point.

What if we could find a place where players can control their best performance, though? There’s one place in baseball that follows an orderly progression of leverage: the count. The first pitch of an at-bat just matters less, on average, than one thrown with two strikes. That’s true regardless of who’s at bat, regardless of who’s pitching, and regardless of the game situation.

What’s more, there’s an easy way that pitchers can change their performance, and it’s largely in their control. They don’t throw every single pitch the exact same; that would be flatly impossible. Some of the variation in pitch shape is inevitable, caused by minute differences and grip or infinitesimally different release points. But velocity? Pitchers can mostly control that.
Read the rest of this entry »

With the Reds’ roster overflowing with talented young infielders, it appeared that manager David Bell would have the pleasant challenge each day of figuring out how to fit as many of them into the lineup as possible. That task, though, just got a bit easier — at least for the first half of the season. On Friday, the team announced that Major League Baseball has suspended Noelvi Marte for the first 80 games of the regular season following a positive test for a performance-enhancing drug.

The 22-year-old Marte made his major league debut on August 19, just over a year after he was acquired from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo blockbuster. After playing exclusively at shortstop from 2019–22, last year he split his time between short and third base at Double-A Chattanooga, played third exclusively at Triple-A Louisville, and then made 29 of his 34 appearances for the Reds at the hot corner, including 26 starts. In all he hit .279/.358/.454 (110 wRC+) with 11 homers and 18 steals in 92 minor league games and then a sizzling .316/.366/.456 (120 wRC+) with three homers and six steals in 35 games for the Reds.

Because he finished with just 114 at-bats and 44 days on the active roster, Marte is still considered a rookie. He placed 41st on this year’s Top 100 Prospects list (up from 94th in 2023), good for no. 1 in the Reds’ system. He’s a well-rounded player who projects as an everyday third baseman, with a shot to be more impactful if he can tap into his 60-grade raw power with greater frequency.

Alas, it will be a few months before he gets a chance to do so. Marte tested positive for boldenone, an anabolic steroid that’s illegal under the game’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program. While he can still participate in spring training, his 80-game suspension takes effect at the start of the regular season. During his suspension, he can work out at the Reds’ complex in Goodyear, Arizona for extended spring training, and will be eligible to return to the majors on June 21, before which he can go on a minor league rehab assignment. If the Reds reach the postseason, something they’ve done just once (2020) over the past 10 seasons, Marte would not be eligible to participate.

PED suspensions have become increasingly uncommon at the major league level in recent seasons, which isn’t to say that the drugs’ usage has been entirely eradicated. Last year, just one major leaguer tested positive and was suspended, Brewers reliever J.C. Mejía, and his suspension wasn’t handed down until September 20. He drew a 162-game suspension as a second offender, as he was also suspended in 2022. More notably, Padres shortstop-turned-outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who was suspended on August 12, 2022, finished serving out his suspension during the ’23 season. Here’s a look at the number of major league suspensions for PEDs for each season since 2012:

In November 2022, the New York Times’ James Wagner reported that players from the Dominican Republic account for half of the positive tests in the majors and minors every year, but the frequency is even greater at the major league level. Including Marte, 15 of the last 18 suspensions handed down to major leaguers since the start of 2020 have gone to Dominican players; the U.S-born Paul Campbell and Héctor Santiago (both 2021) and Venezuela-born José Rondón (2022) were the exceptions.

The high frequency likely owes to the fact that old-fashioned anabolic steroids such as boldenone and stanozolol are easily available without prescriptions in the DR, and are easily detected through MLB’s existing testing program. Seven of the aforementioned 18 suspensions were for boldenone, while five were for stanozolol; all but Rondón (boldenone) are Dominican. Designer steroids, which are harder to detect, are more expensive. One concern within the game right now regarding the dearth of recent suspensions is that the testing program hasn’t caught up to whatever’s in vogue.

As for the Reds, this likely isn’t the scenario that they envisioned when they amassed and then augmented this stable of talented young infielders, but because of their depth, they’re built to withstand the loss of any of them. Marte was one of four Reds infielders who debuted in the majors last year, along with Elly De La Cruz (the only one younger than Marte, and our no. 6 prospect entering the 2023 season), Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt McLain. The glut also includes 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, late-’22 debutant Spencer Steer (no. 47 on the 2023 Top 100), and free agent addition Jeimer Candelario, who signed a three-year, $45 million deal during the Winter Meetings. All of them are capable of playing multiple positions, which set up quite a puzzle as spring began, as Michael Baumann explored last month. Candelario and De La Cruz are both switch-hitters, the rest of them righties.

While India, Steer, and Encarnacion-Strand all primarily played third base in the minors, on Saturday, Bell told reporters that Candelario would be the regular third baseman in Marte’s absence. Even so, the manager is keen to take advantage of the flexibility the group affords him, saying, “We’re gonna create as many options over there as we can for that… There’s just so many different ways that our lineup can come together that we’ll just create the options and kind of let that play out a little bit.”

Here’s how Baumann pieced together the situation as camp opened last month, based upon what Bell and president of baseball operations Nick Krall had said, including the expectation that McLain and De La Cruz would be the primary middle infield combo:

And here’s my best guess as to how it looks now in the wake of Bell’s statements:

Encarnacion-Strand, a 24-year-old righty, hit .270/.328/.477 (112 wRC+) with 13 homers in 241 plate appearances for the Reds last year after absolutely tearing up the International League (.331/.405/.637, 20 HR, 152 wRC+ in 316 PA). Thirty-two of his 36 non-DH starts at the major league level came at first base, and that figures to be his primary position to start the season. India, who hit .244/.338/.407(99 wRC+) with 17 homers and 14 steals last year, hasn’t played anywhere besides second in the majors, but he is now going to add first, third (his regular position at the University of Florida), and left field to his repertoire while also getting time at DH. Steer, who hit .271/.356/.464 (118 wRC+) with a team-high 23 homers and 15 steals in 2023, is probably the best hitter of the bunch but something of a defensive liability no matter where you put him; that said, his -14 RAA last year was well below his -5 DRS and -4 UZR, when he split time between five positions: first base (501 innings), second base (124), third base (350.1), left field (311), and right field (11). He DHed in only six games last year, and doing so more often this year probably depends upon how well India takes to the outfield.

On the subject of platooning, as Baumann pointed out, both Encarnacion-Strand and India had reverse platoon splits in the majors last year, with India’s persisting as far as his career goes (99 wRC+ against lefties, 110 against righties) but Encarnacion-Strand’s leveling out once you include the minors. The lack of lefty hitters in this group puts a couple of other players in the picture, as noted above. Likely to get substantial playing time against righties in both outfield corners and DH is the lefty-swinging Fraley, who hit .256/.339/.443 with 15 homers and 21 steals in just 380 PA last year. With former prospect Jose Barrero placed on waivers and claimed by the Rangers on Saturday, Kemp, who also bats left-handed, is the leading candidate to claim the roster spot vacated by Marte. A non-roster invitee, he hit just .209/.303/.304 (77 wRC+) with five homers and 15 steals for the lowly A’s last year; he can play second and left field, and while his bat is hardly his best asset, he owns a career 100 wRC+ against southpaws, compared to 93 against righties, which could be useful to Bell. Versatile righty Josh Harrison, who hit a limp .204/.263/.291 (51 wRC+) in 114 PA for the Phillies last year before being released and spending time with the Rangers’ Triple-A Round Rock affiliate, is another NRI competing for the open infield spot, but his handedness probably puts him at a disadvantage.

All told, the loss of Marte is a blow to the career of a bright prospect, particularly in a season where he was hoping to solidify his spot at the major league level. While it won’t help the Reds either, they were built to withstand such contingencies, and in Marte’s absence, they’ll get a chance to figure out the strengths and weaknesses of their other young players.

The proliferation of Stuff models has invariably pitted capital-S Stuff against command in terms of their respective importance to a pitcher’s success. If you had to choose one, is it better to locate well, or is it better to be filthy?

The answer to this question is why baseball is beautiful and delightful but also occasionally horribly frustrating. From Vicente Iglesias and Scott Powers:

Importance, in layman’s terms, means how relevant a variable is to explaining an observed outcome; reliability is how much we can expect a variable to repeat or be repeated. In baseball, we often talk about these ideas in terms of “descriptiveness” and “predictiveness.” This dichotomy illustrates the Catch-22 that forever propels baseball forward in all its uncertain glory: pitch location plays an outsized role in determining the outcomes we witness, yet we cannot expect to rely on it year over year. Meanwhile, Stuff is much more reliable next year — i.e., changes to a pitcher’s pitches in terms of velocity, movement, and release point tend to vary to a much smaller degree over time — but it plays a significantly undersized role in influencing actual outcomes this year. Brutal stuff. Why do we even bother? Read the rest of this entry »

Coby Mayo is No. 23 on our Top 100, and a power-packed stroke is a big reason why. Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles out of Parkland, Florida’s Stoneman Douglas High School in 2020, the 6-foot-5, 230-pound third baseman is coming off of a 2023 season where he bashed 29 home runs while logging a 156 wRC+ between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. Moreover, he did so as a 21-year-old.

His maturation as a hitter has been more nuanced than pronounced. When I talked to Mayo in March 2022, he told me that he doesn’t “like to think about hitting too much,” and has “always been a see-ball-hit-ball kind of guy.” For the most part, that hasn’t really changed.

“I try not to think too much when I get into the box,” Mayo said when reminded of those words. “That’s stayed the same. A lot of people will get into the box and start overthinking. They’ll try to manipulate their swings here and there. I just try to have a good approach, a game plan, and kind of let that take over.”

The promising slugger does feel like he has a better understanding of his swing than he did two years ago. When things are going well, he knows what he’s doing right. When things are going wrong, he understands why and can adjust accordingly. The swing itself has changed since we first spoke. Mayo explained that his load, hand placement, and bat path are all “a little bit different” — albeit in a subtle manner. As he put it, “You can’t really notice them with the naked eye.” Creating more loft and allowing him to better use the entire field have been the goals behind the tweaks.

One thing that hasn’t changed is what our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen has descried as a “sometimes ugly looking cut, which has a strange, choppy stride… an odd look, but it works for him.” Read the rest of this entry »

A funny thing happened in Detroit towards the end of the 2023 season: In September, the Tigers were tied with the Minnesota Twins for the best record in the American League. Tarik Skubal’s breakout and Spencer Torkelson’s second-half rampage helped them finish second in the AL Central, albeit nine games behind Minnesota. You may remember the excitement surrounding the team after their hot finish to the 2021 season and subsequent spending spree in free agency. With that false start in mind, it’s wise not to read too much into the final month of the 2023 season, but it does seem like the organization has actually progressed towards breaking out of their rebuilding phase. Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers are in a fascinating situation, not so much treading water as trying to swim in two different directions at the same time. They’ve lost their celebrated manager and traded their Cy Young-winning ace, but they’ve brought in Rhys Hoskins on a lucrative (for them) free agent contract while deciding not to trade their other major free-agent-to-be, Willy Adames.

One of the first posts I wrote for FanGraphs, some 18 months ago, concerned Adames’ future with the Brewers. Or, more likely given his potential to ring the bell for a nine-figure contract in free agency, his future elsewhere. Let’s check in on that potential, and see what we should expect from Adames in 2024 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the next month, we at FanGraphs will be highlighting a number of site features and showing you how we use them. The goal is to make your visit to the website more enjoyable, and to help you get the most out of the features we’ve added over the years. Today, I’m going to walk through the various ways we deploy projections to make predictions about the future. Let’s explore our projected standings and playoff odds pages.

Before I ever worked at FanGraphs, I spent countless hours messing around with the playoff odds page. I like learning about the future, or at least learning about many possible futures, and I always found the slow-changing nature of projections early in the season to be soothing as a Cardinals fan. Stressed about last night’s crushing loss? On May 15? I could always look to the odds page, see that the team’s chances had barely budged, and calm myself down.

Five years into working here, I still use many of the same pages I did then, but they’ve been upgraded a good deal in the meantime. Let’s start with the nerve center of our predictions, the page that shows everything that feeds into our much-discussed playoff odds: the Projected Standings. You can find them using the navigation bar at the top of the site:

Read the rest of this entry »

Most professional baseball players were fans of the sport before it became their job. Much like the rest of us, they grew up following their favorite teams and players, watching them on TV and, to varying degrees, reading about them in print or online. Then things changed. With few exceptions, primarily due to new routines and responsibilities, the way they follow the game is now different — in many cases, drastically so. No longer fans, these players have found themselves consuming baseball in a whole new way.

So how does then compare to now? I put that question to 10 players. Here is what they had to say.

———

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles pitcher: “As a kid growing up, I would just watch my favorite teams. I watched a lot of Astros and Rangers; I wouldn’t really watch a lot of other teams unless it was the playoffs or the World Series. Being in the game now, I try to watch everybody. I try to watch different pitchers. I watch their starts. Read the rest of this entry »

After a long, cold winter, it’s a welcome sight to have teams back on the field this spring. The game’s biggest stars are getting back into their rhythms, some heated position battles are underway, and — most importantly, of course — new data is pouring into sites like FanGraphs. Caution is always advised when evaluating players based on their spring training statistics, but we can still learn a lot from what happens in these exhibition games.

One of the safest places to start is with a metric that players (pitchers, in this case) have the most control over: velocity. Most statistics are contingent on circumstance, making them less reliable, particularly this time of year. Just about everything a hitter does is a reaction to the pitch coming his way, and most pitching statistics are impacted by the fielders, the umpire, and even chance. How hard a pitcher can throw, on the other hand, is how hard he can throw. It may change as a result of health, age, conditioning, or mechanical adjustments, among other factors, but for the most part, it isn’t dependent on the hitter at the plate or the players in the field. It’s as raw a metric as we have.

That said, I’d be hesitant to read much into which pitchers are throwing softer in the first two weeks in spring training. To some extent, that’s what these games are here for, to build strength and get back in shape, and peak league-wide fastball velocity doesn’t usually come until the warmth of late spring. But the guys who are throwing significantly harder than last year? The ones who are throwing harder than they ever have? That seems worth noting. Read the rest of this entry »

It feels like March comes earlier every year. Certainly Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell must feel that way, seeing as how they’re sitting around unemployed while college basketball tournaments are already underway. All of a sudden, starting rotation spots are harder to come by than tenure-track professorships in the humanities. And they’re not the only ones. Michael Lorenzen is also sitting around getting way too good at playing along with The Price is Right. He might not have been at the head of the free agent class, but by God he was an All-Star and threw a no-hitter just last year!

All of these guys will find work somewhere, somehow, and at some vast salary figure. Probably not nine years and $270 million, but it’ll be a lot of money.

This free agent saga has gone on for so long that there really isn’t much more to say about players who had been picked apart and analyzed exhaustively by the Winter Meetings last December, and have remained on the vine for another three months since. Except this: Are they at risk of becoming overripe? Read the rest of this entry »