Jose Trevino’s second season in the Bronx has taken a turn from bad to worse. After earning an All-Star selection in his first year with the Yankees, Trevino struggled to provide even serviceable offense in 2023. Then, on Friday, the 30-year-old catcher revealed he would undergo surgery on a torn wrist ligament he’s been dealing with since spring training. The injury might explain his sharp offensive downturn, but it also means he’ll miss the remainder of the season. It’s yet another tough blow for a Yankees squad that has dealt with more than its fair share of injuries.

On Opening Day, 26 of 27 FanGraphs staffers picked the Yankees to reach the playoffs. It wasn’t a bad prediction, by any means; they had the highest preseason playoff odds in the American League and more projected WAR than any team in baseball. Yet the roster we’ve seen this season is a sad facsimile of the one we imagined before the year began. According to the Injured List Ledger at Baseball Prospectus, the Yankees rank first by a mile in cumulative value lost to injury. Of the seven players on the roster who were All-Stars in 2022, five have spent significant time on the shelf: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, and now Trevino. Other players who have missed time include Frankie Montas, Harrison Bader, Josh Donaldson, and Luis Severino. Read the rest of this entry »

Spencer Strider came up in a conversation I had with Max Scherzer prior to Friday night’s game at Fenway Park. We were talking about the veteran right-hander’s evolution as a pitcher — I’d first interviewed Scherzer in 2010 — and velocity and strikeout rates were predictably among the topics that popped up. Hence the mention of the 24-year-old Atlanta Braves hurler with the high-octane heater and eye-popping 39.7% strikeout rate.

“He’s got a heck of a fastball, for sure,” Scherzer said when I mentioned Strider. “And he’s still developing. One of the things Flash Gordon told me when I was a rookie coming up with the Diamondbacks is that you don’t walk into this league as an ace. His comments were, ‘Guess what? When Pedro and Roger first got in the league, they threw five innings. They were five-and-dive guys. Then they learned how to pitch; they learned how to get guys out multiple times through the order.’ It takes time to learn to be consistent at this level.

“Applying that logic — the wisdom that I heard many, many years ago — Spencer Strider is continuing to get better,” continued Scherzer. “He’s continuing to add stuff to his game while pitching great and striking out a lot of guys out in the process. As long as he stays healthy, he’s got a lot of upside with what he’s going to be able to do with the baseball.”

Strider is 23-8 with a 3.20 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, and 391 strikeouts in 250-and-two-thirds innings. He’s surrendered just 180 hits. The idea that he could become even better is a scary proposition for hitters. My staying as much elicited a strong opinion from the former Cy Young Award winner and seven-time All-Star. Read the rest of this entry »

Génesis Cabrera changed feathers on Friday, as he was traded from St. Louis to Toronto for teenage catching prospect Sammy Hernandez a few days after Cabrera was designated for assignment. The hard-throwing 26-year-old southpaw had spent parts of five volatile seasons with the Cardinals. While he has enjoyed a significant bat-missing rebound in 2023 compared to last season (he’s back into the 26% K% area, up from 16.5% in 2022), Cabrera was in the midst of yet another rocky, homer-prone year before he was DFA’d. He introduced an upper-80s slider/cutter to his repertoire this year and has been using it a ton (36%), while his fastball velocity has slipped a bit. All of Cabrera’s non-fastball pitches generate above-average swinging strike rates, while his mid-90s heater tends to get shelled even though he and the Cardinals made changes to it this year. Perhaps a change of scenery and new outside intervention will lead to another tweak in this area:

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Tonight is a big night for Zach Eflin. When he takes the mound, he’ll be making his 19th start, and when he earns his second out of the evening, he’ll have retired his 318th batter, good for 106 innings on the year. Those aren’t records or nice round numbers, but they’re meaningful for this particular pitcher; he hasn’t surpassed those totals since 2019, his first and only qualified season. The Rays took a gamble on the righty this winter (by their own standards, at least), signing the oft-injured starter to the largest free-agent deal in franchise history. When Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs each went down with season-ending injuries, the stakes for Eflin grew higher. But with each subsequent start he makes, his contract looks less like a gamble and more like highway robbery. When Eflin records his second out tonight, he’ll have given the Rays more than he gave the Phillies in a single season since the pre-pandemic days.

Eflin nearly reached 106 innings his last time out, but the fates weren’t on his side. An hour-long rain delay messed with his preparation right before first pitch, and the hapless Royals chose that particular day to score five unanswered runs in the first two innings of play. Eflin was pulled shortly thereafter, and he would have to wait another five days to celebrate his achievement. Barring disaster, he’ll get there before 7:00 PM ET this evening, and all things considered, the timing actually works out quite well. His 106th inning will coincide with his 19th start, and his outing today will mark the latest date on the calendar that he’s started a game since 2020.

What makes tonight all the more special is the possibility of what’s to come. Eflin is on pace to make 30 starts and throw about 170 innings, both of which would be new career highs. When he qualified for the ERA title in 2019, he did so by the skin of his teeth, tossing 163.1 frames. He briefly lost his rotation spot after a disastrous performance that July (indeed, this season marks the first successful July of his career), and if the Phillies had optioned him to Triple-A instead of putting him in the bullpen, he’d have fallen 13 outs short of qualification. Thus, he’s looking to finish the season as a fully qualified starting pitcher for the very first time. Read the rest of this entry »

I am a big fan of trading for reinforcements well ahead of the trade deadline. If you can add a piece that will make even a small difference, then do it early if the deal makes sense. That is exactly what the Orioles have done in acquiring Shintaro Fujinami from the A’s, adding to what was already a league-best bullpen led by Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano. In return, Baltimore sent 26-year-old prospect Easton Lucas to Oakland.

Before jumping into Fujinami’s profile and potential, let’s learn a little about Lucas. He initially came to Baltimore’s system from Miami in a trade for veteran infielder Jonathan Villar in December 2019. Since 2021, he has worked his way from High-A to Triple-A as a reliever, peaking at 56.2 innings last season. But after looking the best he has in his career with a 2.66 FIP and 38.7 K% to start the year in Double-A, he’s struggled after stepping up to Triple-A, with a 7.31 FIP and 4.61 ERA in 13 innings.

Even with these recent struggles, there is reason to believe Lucas can be a legitimate middle reliever in the big leagues. Per Eric Longenhagen, his average fastball velocity has jumped significantly, from 90.7 mph to 94.5. He also utilizes two slow breaking balls: a slider that was in the high-70s, and a curve that was in the mid-70s. But like his fastball, those pitches have seen a velocity jump as well; the curve has turned into a low-80s slider, and the old slider has tightened up to become a high-80s cutter. That is essentially a 10-tick bump in both breaking balls. With these changes, Lucas has also faded his changeup usage. Long story short, he is now a four-seamer/cutter/slider guy with a significant stuff boost, giving him more of a shot to be a big leaguer.

Let’s pivot back to Baltimore’s side of things. On the surface, Fujinami has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He began the year as a starter and allowed 24 earned runs in under 15 innings, walking virtually everyone he faced. He has been much better since moving to the bullpen, posting a 3.90 FIP in 34.1 innings, but much of that performance is very recent. In May and June, he still had a FIP over 4.00 with a BB% north of 10.

After back-to-back rough performances at the end of June against the Blue Jays and Yankees, Fujinami changed his pitch mix, and it seems as if he has settled in as a four-seamer/splitter pitcher. He used his cutter a few times in a recent appearance, but it’s clear that his plan is to use a two-pitch mix. How has that worked out? Let’s look at the four-seamer swinging-strike leaders in July:

Obviously the sample size here isn’t anything significant, but this bump deserves attention. Despite consistent four-seamer usage — between the high-50s and low-60s — Fujinami’s four-seamer swinging-strike rate hadn’t broken 26% in any month. The pitch wasn’t effective, but it has become a weapon in the last few weeks.

As I already mentioned, Fujinami has used a two-pitch mix of late, but how have the fastball and splitter adapted since his recent surge? (I didn’t include his velocity increase between these two time periods because that is largely due to him no longer starting; his fastball jumped two ticks and his splitter jumped one as a reliever.)

At 93.3 mph, nobody throws a splitter harder than Fujinami other than Jhoan Duran. On top of that, you can see some concrete changes in the pitch’s shape to make it play better with the four-seamer. Most interestingly, the 1:47 tilt on the pitch has moved closer to the four-seamer’s movement. That complicates things for hitters: if Fujinami is throwing both pitches out of similar release points with indistinguishable tilt differences, hitters are going to have trouble either getting their barrel on the splitter or catching up to the heater. The high velocity combination doesn’t give you much wiggle room to figure out where each pitch is headed.

Let’s see what this looks like in practice. Here is an at-bat from last week against Alex Kirilloff:

Pitch 1 (0-0, four-seamer)

Pitch 2 (0-1, splitter)

Pitch 3 (0-2, splitter)

Pitch 4 (0-2, four-seamer)

From Fujinami’s perspective, it doesn’t get any better than this. Kirilloff got his best pitch to hit in the 0–0 count and passed it up. After that, he had no chance. The 0–1 splitter is a nice example of how even a little bit of difference in movement and location can affect a hitter’s swing. The vertical orientation of the splitter was enough for Kirilloff to pull off and chop a foul ball. On the following pitch, Fujinami showed how he can induce a little more horizontal break than a hitter would expect from his release point. It’s not overwhelming, but it’s enough to fool Kirilloff and force an emergency hack. Then, on the final pitch, he blew Kirilloff away with triple digits above the zone. This is perfect execution and sequencing, and it’s exactly what the Orioles will be looking for.

Baltimore has developed a great reputation when it comes to helping relievers get the most out of their stuff and body. If anybody is equipped to help a high-octane reliever with a four-seamer/splitter combination, it’s the Orioles. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fujinami ends up making a slight tweak or two upon his arrival, but I’m confident that would be focused on propping up the two-pitch mix that he has effectively established in the last couple of weeks.

The full midseason run of the ZiPS projections have been completed, and while the standings updates are always a lot of fun, they tend to move in a similar direction to our FanGraphs standings, so they’re usually not the most shocking. What I find the most interesting are the player projections — not even the numbers for the rest of the season (the in-season model is simpler, but improvements in the full model are naturally going to be incremental), but the ones that look toward 2024 and beyond.

After looking at the hitter gainers and decliners and then the pitcher gainers, we’re wrapping this up with the list of the pitchers with the largest declines in projected 2024 WAR since my original projections to dig a little into what changed for each player. Sometimes it’s performance, sometimes it’s health, sometimes it’s a change in position. Let’s jump straight into the names, since I assume everyone reading this knows that ZiPS isn’t a cheeseburger or a hoodie.

One note: For this list, I looked only at the pitchers who have played in the majors whose sole decline isn’t because of injuries; otherwise, the list would simply be “dudes having Tommy John surgery” and fringe Double-A prospects who hit the wall suddenly. I doubt you need any help from a projection system to know why Carlos Rodón’s projection is worse now. Read the rest of this entry »

Brandon Williamson is a small-town kid looking to make a mark in Cincinnati. Selected by Seattle in the second round of the 2019 draft out of Texas Christian University, the 25-year-old southpaw from Welcome, Minnesota (population: 701) was acquired by the Reds from the Mariners as part a six-player trade prior to last season. Since making his MLB debut two months ago, he has a 4.96 ERA and a 5.51 FIP over 11 outings comprising 52.2 innings.

His potential exceeds his modest performance to date. No. 9 on our preseason Reds Top Prospects list with a 45 FV, Williamson has, in the words of Eric Longenhagen, “a good shot to pitch toward the back of a contender’s rotation.” The velocity is nothing to write home about — his heater is averaging a pedestrian 92.5 mph — but as our lead prospect analyst also noted, “His ability to mix [five] offerings in an unpredictable fashion still excites scouts.”

Williamson discussed his arsenal and approach when the Reds visited Boston at the end of May.

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David Laurila: Based on your experience, how do the Mariners and Reds compare in terms of pitching development?

Brandon Williamson: “At the end of the day, it’s still baseball. They’re both trying to get you to throw good pitches over the plate as much as possible. Both value strikeouts, but that’s unanimous around the game. There are maybe a few differences. The Mariners maybe target more shape. I guess that’s probably the biggest difference, targeting more shapes.”

Laurila: There’s less focus on that with Cincinnati?

Williamson: “I wouldn’t necessarily say less, it’s more how they go about it. Seattle is very numbers and TrackMan-driven. Not that here isn’t. I guess you could say that here it’s more of a pitch-use, mechanical way. It’s more of a mix.”

Laurila: With mechanics in mind, I’ve read that command has been an issue for you. Is that still a concern?

Williamson: “It hasn’t been all along. Last year… before that, I wasn’t a guy who walked a bunch of people. I don’t feel like it’s terrible. Is it an issue? You could say that, but it’s not like, ‘Oh my gosh, you can’t pitch.’ It’s more a matter of ‘How can I consistently use my stuff in the zone?’ It’s not that I’m wild, I just need to effectively throw all of my pitches in the zone and be able to repeat that.” Read the rest of this entry »

Tim Anderson’s game has always been a high-wire act. He never walks, he chases constantly, he’s completely BABIP-dependent and allergic to hitting the ball in the air, and his defense at shortstop has never quite been great enough to cover for a down year at the plate. Over the last four seasons, as projection systems crunched the underlying numbers and predicted that he’d plummet to the earth, Anderson refused to look down, putting up a 123 wRC+ and 13.6 WAR. Factoring in the time he lost to injuries and a global pandemic, that’s a 4.1-win pace per 500 PAs, or a 5.9-win pace per 162 games. Despite all the time he missed, Anderson was the 27th-most valuable position player in baseball over that span; only one of the 26 players ahead of him appeared in fewer games.

Anderson’s ability to shoot singles into right field and spray line drives across the entire diamond won him a batting title and a Silver Slugger, and earned him berths in the World Baseball Classic and two All-Star Games. It also made him fun to watch, a throwback who put the ball in play and used his legs, but also had the pop to blow a game wide open.

This season, the wire has snapped. The homerless Anderson has been worth -0.9 WAR, and his 49 wRC+ is the worst among all qualified players. After running a .347 BABIP last year, right at his career average, Anderson’s BABIP is .294. Maybe gravity was always going to kick in this fast when Anderson’s Wile E. Coyote routine stopped working, but it feels awfully sudden for a player who put up a 110 wRC+ just last year:

Read the rest of this entry »

A double-whammy of injuries and underperformance has hampered the Angels in their bid to make the playoffs before Shohei Ohtani hits free agency, but one bright spot has been the play of Mickey Moniak. The former number one pick of the 2016 draft looked like a bust when the Phillies included him as one of two outfielders in last year’s deadline acquisition of Noah Syndergaard, and his late-season cup of coffee in Anaheim didn’t exactly dispel that notion. But since his promotion in mid-May, he’s been one of the majors’ most productive hitters, producing a 170 wRC+ in 165 plate appearances.

Moniak sent the struggling Yankees reeling with a big night on Tuesday in Anaheim. In the first inning, he clubbed a two-run homer off Domingo Germán, and while he struck out in the third with the bases loaded, he followed Ohtani’s RBI triple with an RBI single in the fifth to cap the scoring at 5–1. He also added a single of Albert Abreu in the eighth, giving him three three-hit games in the first five of the second half and extending his hitting streak to 10 games. Read the rest of this entry »

If you remember my writing earlier this season about Brent Honeywell Jr.’s changeup-screwball combo or Hurston Waldrep’s splitter, you can probably imagine how much I love a weird-ass changeup-like thing. So much so I’m starting to wonder if it might be worth it to ask Meg for a “Weird-Ass Changeup World Tour” tag in the CMS.

Until then, consider Logan Allen. No, the other Logan Allen. The one who came back up from the minors to replace Shane Bieber in Cleveland’s rotation and completely barbecued the Pirates on Tuesday night. Seriously: Five innings, no runs, one hit, one walk, eight strikeouts. That’s some heavy stuff.

The key to Allen’s whole shtick is his changeup, which is unlike any other pitch in baseball. It’s slow, even by the standards of a pitch that’s defined by its slowness: just 82.9 mph on average, though since he doesn’t throw very hard by modern standards, that’s not as extreme a number as it seems on first glance. What is extreme is the way the pitch moves. Read the rest of this entry »