Is Luke Weaver good? I’m asking for a friend of mine who will remain anonymous, initials D.S. It’s a matter of some urgency, he told me. Perhaps – and I, of course, wouldn’t want to speculate – it might be related to a news item first reported by Will Sammon of The Athletic. Weaver and the New York Mets are in agreement on a two-year, $22 million deal that continues to overhaul their bullpen.
Eleven million a year for a quality reliever is a solid rate. Eleven million for a guy who is only a season removed from nearly carrying the Yankees to a World Series title? A screaming buy. Thus, the question in evaluating Weaver’s free agency is simple: Is he the guy who dominated in 2024, or the one whom Aaron Boone launched down the bullpen hierarchy and eventually gave up on in the 2025 postseason?
When the Weaver experience is firing on all cylinders, you watch him pitch and wonder why everyone can’t do it like this. He starts things off with a model-friendly four-seam fastball, 94-95 mph and with prototypical backspinning movement. The combination of velocity, movement, and command turn what might seem like an ordinary pitch into a great primary option. As a starter, Weaver’s fastball was plus but not unhittable. It was held back by subpar velocity, but that was the only shortcoming of an otherwise solid offering. His star turn in 2024 was driven largely by that pitch, with a few ticks of velocity making it a monster instead of merely good.
When Weaver isn’t pounding the strike zone with his fastball, he’s snapping off one of the best changeups in baseball. The superlative cambio has always been his top offering. He broke into the majors as a starter and used the change to survive, throwing it more than a quarter of the time without any other solid secondaries to speak of. It’s so good that it’s no mere platoon pitch, and it’s gotten better since his transition to the bullpen. The same few ticks of extra juice that turned his fastball unhittable also gave batters nightmares with his offspeed offerings. Read the rest of this entry »
The Giants have one thing so many other teams covet: a genuine ace to lead their starting rotation. Only one other starting pitcher has accumulated more WAR than Logan Webb over the last five years, and he’s eighth in baseball in park- and league-adjusted FIP over that same period. After posting the best season of his career in 2025, Webb will continue to lead the rotation in ‘26. The rest of the pitching staff, though, is rife with question marks. San Francisco took its first steps toward addressing some of those issues this week, signing Adrian Houser, Jason Foley, and Gregory Santos to bolster the depth across the staff.
On Tuesday, Houser agreed to a two-year, $22 million contract with a club option for a third year. He made a name for himself as a reliable backend starter and swingman for the Brewers across his first seven seasons in the big leagues, before bouncing around six different organizations over the last two years. Traded to the Mets during the 2023-24 offseason, Houser struggled to a 5.84 ERA and 4.93 FIP across seven starts and 16 relief appearances. He made a handful of minor league appearances in the Orioles and Cubs organizations during the remainder of 2024, then signed a minor league deal with Rangers last offseason. Texas never called him up, and so he opted out of that deal and signed a major league contract with the White Sox in May.
I don’t think anyone was expecting a big breakout once Houser joined Chicago’s starting rotation. For most of his career, both of his fastballs averaged around 93-94 mph, but his velocity had dipped a few ticks by the time he was 32 and pitching for the Mets. It was a surprise, then, to see him firing 95-mph four-seamers as a member of the White Sox.
Of the many haunted residences in New Orleans, one in particular comes with a very specific warning: Don’t walk under the gallery. (As a brief architectural aside, a gallery is like a balcony, but it’s held up by posts or columns that go all the way to the ground, as opposed to L-shaped supports attached to the side of the building. The posts allow galleries to extend farther out from the building, typically spanning the sidewalk below. Having a gallery rather than a balcony was, and to some extent still is, seen as a status symbol in New Orleans.) This home sits in the French Quarter, and without getting too far into it because the details are pretty horrific, and this article is ostensibly about the Phillies’ signing free agent reliever Brad Keller to a two-year $22 million contract, the place is said to be haunted by the torture victims of an exceedingly cruel socialite who owned the mansion in the early 1830s.
The spirits who linger remain very unhappy (deservedly so!), and they seem especially offended by the thrill-seekers looking to exploit their suffering in the hope of experiencing some sort of supernatural activity. Many who have sought to prove themselves unbothered by the notion of tangling with a few disgruntled ghosts have marched proudly down the sidewalk under the mansion’s gallery. They did not just find themselves temporarily spooked by a burst of cold air or the smell of rotting flesh. Rather, they found themselves cursed with long-term bouts of bad luck and, for years after the fact, continued to report disturbing encounters with other worldly forces.
Now, is this story exaggerated and sensationalized by the ghost tour industrial complex that exists in New Orleans? Probably. But nevertheless, as a former ghost tour attendee, I’m left wondering if at some point early in his career Dave Dombrowski wandered through a heavily haunted bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »
Since the release of Statcast’s bat tracking metrics, I’ve been on a journey to try to marry the old school concept of reading swings with the new school insight that comes from swing data. I peruse leaderboards, oftentimes looking to the extreme leaders and laggards, to understand how my perception of a hitter’s swing aligns with his metrics. Starting at the extremes is fascinating because sometimes a hitter’s swing is extreme in a risky way, while at others, its outlier characteristics are part of what makes it effective. Sometimes, both are true!
For instance, Eugenio Suárez has the steepest attack angle in baseball, leaving him vulnerable at the top of the zone, but also propelling his power profile. Brice Turang has the most inside-out attack direction in the majors, which helps him make consistent contact against any type of pitcher, but also limits his ability to pull. Isaac Paredes makes contact farther out in front of the plate than anybody else, leading to the most aggressive pull swing in the game. And I could keep going! Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bottom-of-the-league attack angle allows him to pair contact with a gap-to-gap approach unlike any other hitter. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman’s steep shoulders and chicken wing arms allow him to get his bat on plane for optimal contact at any height in the zone.
And then there’s Nick Kurtz. His entire swing profile is unique. For most hitters, it’s easy to see how their individual attributes and swing components lead to their overall output. With Kurtz, though, it takes much more digging to understand how his traits harmonize with one another to create the Rookie of the Year-winning performance we saw this year. So how does he do it? Let’s find out. Read the rest of this entry »
Bob Dylan can’t get no relief, but the Los Angeles Angels don’t have that problem. They just signed two veteran pitchers, Drew Pomeranz and Jordan Romano, to one-year deals worth $4 million and $2 million, respectively.
I’m starting to get worried that the Angels are becoming orthodox. For most of this decade, there have been two teams — the Angels and Rockies — that you could count on to be truly iconoclastic. The other 28 clubs differed from each other mostly due to flavor of ownership: How many resources their boss was willing to commit to the cause, and what time pressure, if any, was being placed on the executives to win. (It’s probably more like 27 other teams now, with the Buster Posey Era underway in San Francisco, though that’s another story.)
But for the most part, the way you run a baseball team is you hire some business school goon, give him a budget and a list of goals, and let him cook. He then goes out and hires as many quants and biomechanics experts as he can, and let the chips fall where they may. Read the rest of this entry »
If you’re a regular FanGraphs reader, then you know that this week, the week after the Winter Meetings, is a week for roundups. The Rangers make a couple moves on a Friday? I’ll bundle them into one snug article. A passel of lefties comes off the board on a Tuesday? Michael Rosen will arrange them into a tidy bouquet. A couple teams talk themselves into believing that they could be the ones to figure out Josh Bell and Adolis García? Michael Baumann will slam his head into the wall repeatedly for our amusement. That’s how it goes.
On Wednesday, Chris Martin, the big, 39-year-old middle reliever from Texas, signed up for one last rodeo with his hometown Rangers. As with many minor deals, no one has reported how much Martin will be paid for the 2026 season. The news seemed all but destined to occupy one quarter of a reliever roundup, but I’d like to give Martin single billing here, because I don’t think we’ve done a good enough job of celebrating just how good he’s been. Let’s start at the beginning. Read the rest of this entry »
Patrick Gorski, Darren Yamashita, Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
At first, it was a trickle. A Gregory Soto here, a Hoby Milner there. On Tuesday, though, we were staring down a veritable deluge. In a single day, the low-to-mid-tier short-term left-handed pitching market got ransacked like a Ralph’s on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. In rapid succession, three cromulent southpaws inked deals. First, it was Caleb Thielbar, returning to the Cubs on a one-year pact. Foster Griffin followed, lured back from Japan by a $5.5 million guarantee from the Nationals. Finally, Caleb Ferguson linked up with the Reds, also for a single year. (Later on Tuesday, Drew Pomeranz joined the party; he agreed to a one-year contract with the Angels, which be covered in a separate post.) Let’s assess each of these deals in the order in which they signed:
Caleb Thielbar
When Thielbar appeared on one of these roundups around this time last year, it was under sorrier circumstances. The weathered middle reliever had just dropped a stinker, walking 11.1% of hitters on his way to 47 1/3 innings of a 5.32 ERA. The Cubs handed him a “here’s your last chance” $2.75 million; given that Thielbar was heading into his age-38 season, another shoddy campaign would’ve likely marked the end of a surprisingly successful career for the former 18th rounder.
Instead, the wily veteran innovated his way out of a hole, adding a new pitch and delivering a vintage Thielbar performance. The terms of his deal have not yet been disclosed, but considering that many relievers this offseason have signed for more money than they were expected to get, Thielbar almost certainly received a healthy raise to keep playing ball for a living.
In 2025, his strikeout rate remained down a few points from his 30ish% peak, but Thielbar got his command back, in part due to his decision to replace a good chunk of his big old sweepers with a tighter, cutterish hard slider. The slutter (sorry) was a genius bridge between his three other pitches, which are all relatively easy to identify out-of-hand. By adding a pitch that he could conceivably tunnel with his four-seamer, curveball, and sweeper, he seems to have increased the effectiveness of his entire arsenal.
See all of those yellow dots on the pitch plot above? That pitch did not exist before this year. In 2024, Thielbar primarily attacked lefties with the sweeper, throwing it 55% of the time in same-handed matchups. A pitch with all that movement — 14 inches of horizontal movement on average — is hard to land for strikes. His new slider doesn’t have that sort of crazy break, and he had a much easier time throwing it in and around the zone.
And it wasn’t just a chase pitch to lefties. Thielbar also used the new slider as a soft-contact generator against right-handed batters, jamming them inside with respectable velo and glove-side break:
Otherwise, it was vintage Thielbar, slinging slow, high-ride fastballs and some of the prettiest curveballs in the sport. He handled righties and lefties alike, and will assume a similar role in the Chicago bullpen, navigating medium-high leverage situations, particularly when that leverage context coincides with a run of lefties.
Foster Griffin
Last we saw of Griffin stateside, it was 2022, and he was languishing in Quad-A limbo, making brief cameos with the Royals and Blue Jays before hopping on a bus back to Omaha or Buffalo. Back then, he was a fringy bullpen arm, leaning on a cutter with a movement profile that coincidentally resembled Thielbar’s new slider. On top of the cutter, Griffin featured a dead-zone four-seamer at 93 mph, a pretty standard curveball, and a changeup with some quality arm-side fade.
The uninspiring stuff and varied arsenal felt more befitting of a backend starter, and starting is exactly what Griffin took to with the Yomiuri Giants, where he pitched some excellent ball for three seasons. The final was his finest for the Tokyo-based club. He posted the third-best FIP (1.78) among NPB hurlers with at least 70 innings pitched, striking out a quarter of hitters and allowing just a single home run.
What changed? For that, I’ll hand it over to James Fegan, who wrote up a little blurb on Griffin for The Board:
The addition of a low-80s splitter is the profile-changing development since the last of Griffin’s eight career big league innings. Its raw action won’t knock you out of your chair, but it flirted with a 50% miss rate this past season because Griffin almost never leaves it in mistake locations. His steep approach angle makes the pitch nearly impossible to lift, allowing Griffin to allow fewer home runs (18) in over 300 innings in Japan than he gave up in his last full season in the PCL (20) in 2019. Even topping out at 93 mph now, this is still too much of a nibbling profile to project him beyond a multi-inning swingman role. But now that he can wield his splitter as an out pitch to either side, it’s easier to see Griffin carving out a Tyler Alexander-shaped niche at the end of a pitching staff.
The prospect team gave Griffin a 35+ FV grade, suggesting he is unlikely to do much more than hoover up innings for the Nationals. But if there’s a club in need of some innings-hoovering, it’s the Nats, who have a bunch of question marks on the staff after MacKenzie Gore, and that’s assuming they hang onto Gore, which, who knows.
Caleb Ferguson
The second left-handed Caleb in this roundup is 10 years younger than his predecessor. Once a whiff chaser with shaky command, Ferguson leaned hard into contact suppression in 2025, scaling back his four-seamer against same-handed hitters while boosting the sinker to nearly 50% usage. At times, this worked great. His strikeout rate dropped over eight percentage points, but the heavy combination of sinkers and cutters gave Ferguson some of the lowest barrel rates and exit velocities in the league.
Chasing weak contact as a relief pitcher can be a blessing and a curse. Attacking the zone with three fastballs keeps the walks down and the extra base hits to a minimum. But it also means a big chunk of balls in play, and one day the BABIP gods will rise with vengeance and rain misery upon your poor ERA. Unfortunately, this happened to Ferguson at a crucial juncture. Plucked from Midwestern obscurity in Pittsburgh and thrust into a playoff push in Seattle, he initially performed well before running into a spate of poor performances in late August and early September. In a tight postseason race, that was that — Ferguson didn’t get many leverage opportunities for the remainder of the season, and his brief playoff work went terribly. Brought in to close down a seven-run lead in the ninth inning of ALDS Game 3, Ferguson allowed three runs without recording an out, requiring Dan Wilson to throw Andrés Muñoz on a day that he could’ve secured some crucial rest. It cannot be great for a reliever to get shelled on a big stage in his final moments before hitting the free market.
For most of his Mariners tenure, Ferguson was treated like a member of the B team, deployed mostly in losing efforts. Will the Reds, themselves a recent playoff club, trust him to handle leads in close games? It’s sort of on the edge. RosterResource sees Ferguson as the fourth arm out of the pen, behind Emilio Pagán, Tony Santillan, and Graham Ashcraft. Astute readers will note that all three of those guys throw baseballs with their right arm, and so Ferguson will assume the mantle of Most Trusted Lefty, prying that loosely held title from Sam Moll’s fingertips.
Every year, FanGraphs (in this case, I am FanGraph) releases contract predictions for our top 50 free agents. We also run a contract crowdsourcing project for those players, and I have to say, the crowd is spectacularly good at this. Last year, for example, I looked through all of the various predictions across the internet and awarded the crowd the title of best overall prognosticator.
But honestly, the winner of that award was hard to determine because I didn’t have a great way to evaluate the various predictions. Why so difficult? Because not every deal ended up being for the length we all predicted. As an example, I predicted 12 years and $48 million per year for Juan Soto, while the crowd predicted 13 years and $45 million per year. Soto signed a deal that was for 15 years and $51 million per year. Who was closest to the mark? It’s not immediately clear. I did better on the AAV, but the crowd did better on the number of years. There’s no obvious determining factor to use when comparing the two. Even worse, the two are inversely correlated; more years generally means a lower AAV. The two predictions seem pretty similar to me, but I had to grade AAVs and total guarantees separately, and that just felt clunky and confusing.
After some time bouncing ideas off my friends and colleagues, and plenty of time in the FanGraphs Idea Generation Lab (not real, but man, it should be), I think I have a solution. It’s simple, really. Evaluating contract predictions would be much easier if the predictions and the actual contract were for the same length, so I made them all the same length. Read the rest of this entry »
On Monday morning, the Twins signed Josh Bell to a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2027. Between salary, signing bonus, and option buyout, the deal guarantees Bell $7 million. A couple hours later, the Phillies and outfielder Adolis García agreed to terms on a one-year, $10 million contract.
Look around whatever room you’re sitting in as you read this. Consider the material of the walls, the furniture, whatever appliances (if any) are in view. The carpet, or wood or laminate or tile of the floor. Pens and pencils, soap, hand lotion, power cables, books, magazines, children’s toys… whatever you can see, you know what it’d feel like and taste like if you licked it.
That’s from experience. At some point in your life, you put everything you encountered in your mouth, just to see what would happen. If you’ve ever raised a child, or met a child, or been a child, you know kids are always putting stuff in their mouths. You know equally well that kids aren’t supposed to do that. They could choke, or get sick, or otherwise come to harm by licking the sidewalk.
But they do it anyway, no matter how forcefully their parents remind them not to. There’s only one way to know for sure what the TV remote tastes like, and it’s too important an issue to take anyone else’s word for it. Read the rest of this entry »
Throughout history, the Miami Marlins have only produced four kinds of season: The star-studded World Series team of 1997, the star-studded last place team of 2012, unwatchable detritus, and a feisty .500ish club with some fun talent. (The 2003 World Series-winning Marlins were the latter group, plus a one-year cameo by Ivan Rodriguez.)
That team looked like a juggernaut in the making, because it had a roster full of guys who would spend most of the next decade starting for playoff teams. Just, you know, other playoff teams, and not the Marlins. Read the rest of this entry »
