Walker Jenkins is more than just the top-rated prospect in the Minnesota Twins system. Drafted fifth overall in 2023 out of Southport, North Carolina’s South Brunswick High School, the soon-to-turn-20-year-old is one of the game’s top prospects. His left-handed stroke is a big reason why. As Eric Longenhagen notes in Jenkins’ forthcoming Top 100 prospect report, the outfielder “has exciting feel to hit and barrel control. He tracks pitches exceptionally well and can move his hands all over the strike zone.” Longenhagen goes on to note that while Jenkins is likely a left fielder (the Twins have primarily deployed him in center so far), he “should hit enough to be a heart-of-the-order hitter and impact regular regardless of position.”
His first full professional season was impressive. In 368 plate appearances split across four levels — he finished the year in Double-A — Jenkins had a 139 wRC+ to go with six home runs and a .282/.394/.439 slash line. Moreover, he swiped 17 bases in 20 attempts.
Jenkins discussed his hitting approach in the final week of January.
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David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?
Walker Jenkins: “Above all things, I’m a hitter who is going to go up there and try to get my best swing off. You have guys that get categorized as, ‘Oh, they’re hitters, but they have no power,’ while for others it’s, ‘They’re all power, but no hit.’ I want to be a good hitter. I’m going to hit first, and when I get my A-swing off, that’s when my power is going to come.
“If you can continuously hit the ball on the barrel, good things are going to happen. That’s what I try to do, because I don’t like striking out. I don’t like giving at-bats away. But when I get in a hitter’s count, I’m not going to get cheated.” Read the rest of this entry »
Robert Hassell III has encountered bumps in the road, but he’s confident that he’s finally heading in the right direction. Health and a better understanding of his left-handed stroke are two reasons why. Added to the Washington Nationals’ 40-man roster over the offseason, the 2020 first-rounder — he went eighth overall to the San Diego Padres — is also still just 23 years old. While his path to the big leagues has been anything but smooth, Hassell is far from over the hill in terms of prospect status.
Injuries have hampered his progress. Since turning pro, Hassell has incurred a pair of wrist injuries, including a broken hamate bone, and strained a groin muscle. As a result, he’s played in just 428 games over four seasons. Seldom at full strength for an extended period of time, he’s slashed an uninspiring .260/.350/.385 with 36 home runs and a 105 wRC+.
Hassell didn’t want to dwell on his past injury issues when I spoke to him during the Arizona Fall League season, although he did acknowledge that he “needs to be healthy and on the field” in order to allow his true talent to play. And he definitely has talent. While power has never been part of his profile, Hassell’s combination of bat-to-ball skills, speed, and outfield defense helped make him a primary piece in the multi-player trade that sent Juan Soto from Washington to San Diego in August 2022.
The conversation I had with Hassell in Arizona centered on his development as a hitter — something he views as a work-in-progress in need of nuance, not one that requires an overhaul. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded before pitchers and catchers report! This time next week, spring training camps will be nearly full, with full squad workouts starting no later than February 18. Who exactly will be participating in those workouts is still fluid, but this past week was a busy one that provided a lot of new information for me to add to the offseason omnibus. Here’s what happened.
Bringing the Polar Bear back locks in all nine of the Mets’ starting spots barring any surprising moves or injuries. With their rotation and bullpen also seemingly full, I’d expect this to be their last major move of the offseason at any position, though they still could do a few things on the margins.
The Mets have tried to trade Starling Marte, and they’re reportedly willing to pay down some of his $19 million salary to move him, but it’s unsurprising that teams aren’t really biting. Marte is coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons and his value as a fielder has absolutely tanked. Other “excess” players the Mets could look to deal include righty starter Paul Blackburn, third baseman Brett Baty, outfielder José Azocar, and righty reliever Sean Reid-Foley.
Effect on Other Teams
The other team that (from the outside, at least) seemed to be most strongly in on Alonso was the Blue Jays, but they always struck me as something of an inelegant fit. They either would’ve slid Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back over to third or made Alonso, who’s always been a full-time first baseman, their primary DH. Attempting to lure Alex Bregman would make for a much cleaner fit in Toronto, but it’s unclear how willing or able the Jays would be to swing the six- or seven-year deal that Bregman is seeking. On a Bleacher Report stream, Jon Heyman named the Cubs as the current favorites for Bregman, but by how much is also unclear.
Effect on Similar Players
Alonso’s short-term deal doesn’t really affect what Bregman will ultimately get. Heyman reported last week that the third baseman has a “lucrative” six-year offer on the table, including an opt-out after the first year. Bob Nightengale reported on Thursday that Bregman “still has no interest in a short-term contract.”
Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty for Two Years, $35 Million
Flaherty’s return gives the Tigers a strong no. 2 starter to slot behind all-world ace Tarik Skubal and sets up a doozy of a competition for the last one or two rotation spots behind Skubal, Flaherty, and Alex Cobb. Reese Olson appears to be a near-lock for that fourth spot, coming off 22 starts (112 1/3 innings) with a 3.53 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and 3.64 xERA.
Flaherty was the best remaining starter available, but because both his market and ultimate deal were quite underwhelming compared to what other starters signed for earlier in the offseason, it’s unclear how many teams are still interested in adding high-upside pitchers to bolster their rotations. Nick Pivetta is the lone free agent option who fits that billing, but the trade market features plenty of enticing pitchers, such as Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Castillo, and Erick Fedde.
It’s also worth considering that Flaherty’s deal may have been more of a reflection of the individual pitcher than the market. As Michael Rosen wrote in mid-January, “The hot market for starters and the comparatively cool market for Flaherty suggest that, unlike the rest of the nominal ‘front-end’ starting pitchers at the top of the market, something about him scares teams.” On the surface, Michael noted, teams were probably a bit hesitant because Flaherty’s last healthy and effective season before last year came in 2019. Beyond that, though, Michael pointed more specifically to Flaherty’s fastball as the source of concern for his suitors. Those other pitchers I mentioned don’t come with the same yellow flags, so teams could be more willing to spend the money or prospect capital to acquire one of them. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Effect on Similar Players
Flaherty’s below-expectations contract may not be good news for Pivetta, who is three years older than Flaherty and was saddled with a qualifying offer, which Flaherty was ineligible to receive. Jon Heyman of the New York Postreported last week that there are 10 teams interested in Pivetta, though we’ve only publicly heard about three, marked on the Matrix in blue: the Blue Jays, the Mets, and the Reds. Two of those teams have added other starting pitchers since their interest in Pivetta was reported; Toronto signed Max Scherzer on January 30, while in December New York re-signed Sean Manaea and brought in Griffin Canning. Cincinnati’s interest was reported after the team traded for Brady Singer, but Pivetta doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Reds. The Great American Ballpark is a tough home stadium for fly ball pitchers like Pivetta.
The issue with Pivetta’s qualifying offer is that not only does it make teams more wary of signing him in general, but it also makes him less appealing on a short-term deal. Basically, teams aren’t going to want to give up their draft pick and whatever salary they agree to pay for a player who is only going to be around for one season. Understanding this, it seems possible that he still could get the three-year, $45 million median prediction (on the Total Spending Projection page), especially if there truly are double-digit teams interested in his services.
The most glaring need for the Twins (besides money falling from the sky) was to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to balance out lefty bats Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, and they got their man in Bader. The defensive stalwart was actually worse against lefties last year (70 wRC+ compared to 93 against righties), but historically he’s leaned the other direction (109 wRC+ against southpaws for his career, 84 against righties).
Bader’s true calling is his aforementioned strong defense; while he hasn’t played a position other than center since 2018, the thought of him playing next to Byron Buxton late in games to help lock down wins is quite appealing. He can also get Buxton off his feet up the middle without the Twins having to give up much, if anything, on defense. The Twins could hypothetically start Buxton in center against righties with another player DHing, and have Buxton DH against lefties with Bader in center.
Diamondbacks Sign Randal Grichuk for One Year, $5 Million
Despite losing Christian Walker to the Astros, Joc Pederson to the Rangers, and Josh Bell to the Nationals, baseball’s highest-scoring offense in 2024 looks primed to be right around the top of the list again in 2025. Instead of platooning with Pederson at DH, Grichuk should platoon with Pavin Smith, who had a mini-breakout in 158 plate appearances last year.
Pham gives the Pirates another bat, along with veteran free agents Andrew McCutchen, who signed what’s become his annual one-year, $5 million contract with Pittsburgh, and Adam Frazier, as well as trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz. That said, Pham is not exactly the impact bat the Pirates needed to provide run support for a rotation fronted by one of the best pitchers in baseball. At this point I don’t think an impact bat is walking through that door, so Pirates fans will have to settle for watching Pham platoon in right field with Joshua Palacios, or perhaps another lower-tier addition like Alex Verdugo, in whom they’ve expressed interest.
Saying the Orioles’ outfield is jam-packed would be an understatement. Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be the starters against righties, with Laureano likely to fill a platoon role against lefty pitching. Ryan O’Hearn ought to be the starting DH against righties, which leaves just one spot on the bench for Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Carlson, and Daz Cameron, who’s out of options.
The lefty-swinging Kjerstad certainly merits a longer look coming off a 116 wRC+ in 114 plate appearances (despite not pulling a single fly ball to right field!), but a trade might be necessary to open up regular playing time for him. If Baltimore decides to move someone, O’Hearn or first baseman Ryan Mountcastle seem like the most obvious candidates.
Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams
The four signings above all happened in a 48-hour span and very quickly and dramatically shortened the list of available righty hitting outfielders who are at least capable of playing center field. Enrique Hernández is the best remaining player to fit that criteria, and he comes with the added ability to play all around the infield, too. Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Pillar can all play up the middle with varying levels of competence, and Mark Canha is a nice bat but hasn’t played any center field in the last two seasons. The trade market has Luis Robert Jr. as its jewel.
Effect of Their Signings on Similar Players
All of the free agent outfielders mentioned above will likely end up signing for less than what Bader earned. It’s possible that Canha and Hernández get contracts that fall somewhere in the range that Pham, Grichuk and Laureano received, but Taylor and Pillar might to have to settle for minor league deals.
If there aren’t any injuries, the Angels probably have all 13 position player spots locked up, though it’s worth noting that Zach Neto’s offseason shoulder surgery could cause him to miss the start of the season. In that case Kevin Newman would play short.
Moncada has played third base exclusively since 2019, so at least at the beginning of the season, the Halos have two starting-caliber third basemen. That said, both Moncada and Anthony Rendon have spent considerable time on the injured list in recent years, so having depth at the position isn’t a bad thing. As things stand, RosterResource projects Rendon to be the starting third baseman and Moncada to platoon against righties at DH, with offseason acquisition Jorge Soler playing right field. In this case, Jo Adell would play right field against lefties, with Soler sliding to DH. I still expect Soler to end up at DH more often than not, just because he really shouldn’t play the field much. Rendon could also platoon with Moncada at third or the lefty-hitting Nolan Schanuel at first, a position he’s never played as a professional, as a way for the Angels to give Adell regular playing time in right field. Then again, the Angels might not have this lineup crunch for long. Rendon has been hurt for more than half of every season since 2021.
Effect on Other Teams
I suppose the Angels could open up some playing time by trading one of their trio of returning non-Mike Trout outfielders, either Adell, Taylor Ward, or Mickey Moniak. But I don’t think that’s going to happen here, at least not in response to the Moncada signing. Really, the Angels brought in Moncada as insurance for Rendon. Playing time has a way of sorting itself out. Other teams will have to look elsewhere for an outfielder, and if they want a third baseman not named Bregman, their free agent options are limited to Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Luis Urías, and Miguel Sanó.
Effect on Similar Players
Coming off his resurgent (albeit BABIP-fueled) season with the Mets, Iglesias likely has his sights set on well more than $5 million. We haven’t heard much about his market. I think $5 million sounds about right — if not a little low — for DeJong, who popped 24 homers with a 95 wRC+ last season, both his best marks since 2019. I’d be surprised if Urías was able to find a major league deal, and even more surprised if Sanó did.
Minnesota’s best-in-baseball bullpen projection just got a little bit better with the return of Coulombe, who pitched for the team from 2020-22 before being traded to Baltimore.
The lefty with three distinct fastballs and two distinct breaking balls will give the Twins a different look alongside hard throwing righties Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Jorge Alcala. Funky righty Michael Tonkin (who’s out of options) and Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano could round out the bullpen so the Twins can maximize their 40-man depth without exposing anyone to waivers, but Ronny Henriquez (also out of options), Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Louie Varland will be in the thick of the competition as well.
The Yankees had exactly zero lefty relievers on their 40-man roster prior to re-signing Hill, so while he won’t light up the radar gun or strike many hitters out, he’ll play a key role for New York once again. This overall scarcity of left-handed pitchers though doesn’t mean the Yankees will struggle against lefty batters in the later innings. New closer Devin Williams neutralizes lefties with his signature airbender changeup, and setup man Luke Weaver also relies on a changeup to retire lefties. Meanwhile, Fernando Cruz, whom the Yankees acquired from the Reds, and Mark Leiter Jr. throw splitters to keep lefties at bay.
The Yankees currently have six starting pitchers for their big league roster, though Marcus Stroman could end up in the bullpen so long as he doesn’t get traded. Assuming he stays, there’ll be seven spots for traditional relievers, and a minimum of five are accounted for by Williams, Weaver, Cruz, Hill, and Leiter. That leaves two openings for the likes of Ian Hamilton, JT Brubaker, Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, Roansy Contreras, Yerry De Los Santos, and Yoendrys Gómez. Brubaker, Contreras, and Gómez are out of options. Jonathan Loáisiga, currently recovering from elbow surgery, should be able to help out by midseason.
Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams
The free agent pool has lost two intriguing lefty relievers, but there are still southpaws aplenty. Scott Alexander posted the lowest ERA (2.56) and highest grounder rate (60.0%) last year of any remaining free agent reliever with at least 25 innings of work; Ryan Yarbrough led all major league relievers with 98 2/3 innings; Jalen Beeks retooled his pitch mix to somewhat rebound from a bad 2023; and Andrew Chafin has a long track record of being somewhere between serviceable and dominant. There’s also Drew Smyly, Will Smith, Brooks Raley (who hopes to be back from Tommy John surgery in July), and others.
Effect of the Their Signings on Similar Players
The $1.5–$3 million range that Hill and Coulombe — as well as earlier signees Tim Mayza, Justin Wilson, and Hoby Milner — received feels about right for all but one of the lefties named above. Raley will likely get a back-loaded two-year contract coming off his injury rehab.
Trades
Cubs Acquire Ryan Brasier, Cash (amount not yet reported) from Dodgers for PTBNL or Cash
Kyle Tucker will get all the headlines, but the Cubs have done a lot of work revamping their bullpen this offseason, too. Brasier, Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar, and Eli Morgan are all newcomers; of those four, only Morgan can be optioned. Expect the other three to be in the Opening Day bullpen, along with Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, and — if he’s not in the rotation — fellow newcomer Colin Rea. There’ll be at most three more spots up for grabs and a lot of arms battling for them, including Morgan, Julian Merryweather, Keegan Thompson, Nate Pearson, and Luke Little, among others.
Where the Dodgers Go From Here
There’s nothing else for the Dodgers to do here, as Brasier had been DFA’d.
Tommy Pham is on the move again. The well-traveled outfielder reportedly agreed to a one-year, $4.025 million deal with the Pirates on Thursday, meaning that he’ll join his ninth team over the past five seasons and the 10th of his 12-year career. Past experience suggests he should probably rent instead of buy.
Pham, who will turn 37 on March 8, spent time with three different teams in 2024. Despite a very solid 2023 showing — .256/.328/.446 (109 wRC+) with 16 homers, 22 steals, and 1.9 WAR — with the Mets and Diamondbacks, he went unsigned through spring training before finally inking a deal with the White Sox in mid-April. He escaped their record-setting futility when he was traded back to the Cardinals (who originally drafted him in 2006) as part of the three-way swap that sent Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to the Dodgers, and then was plucked off of waivers by the Royals on August 31. At least he’s gotten back-to-back trips to the postseason thanks to all that moving around.
Whether it was because he missed spring training, never stayed in one place for long, or was increasingly subject to the ravages of aging — spending time around those White Sox and Cardinals teams could take years off a man’s life — Pham did not play well in 2024. He hit just .248/.305/.368, setting career lows in on-base percentage and walk rate (7.3%) as well as a full-season low in slugging percentage. (He slugged .312 in 125 plate appearances during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.) He was basically replacement level in 2024, and his 91 wRC+ fit into the weird pattern he’s shown over the past half-decade, with above-average seasons in odd-numbered years and below-average seasons in even-numbered ones. Maybe that bodes well for the Buccos. Read the rest of this entry »
Jose Altuve, left fielder? The nine-time All-Star second baseman first suggested last month that he’d be willing to change positions in order to accommodate the potential return of free agent Alex Bregman. While a reunion with the third baseman may be a long shot at this point, Altuve has spent the past couple weeks taking fly balls. The team indicated earlier this week that he’ll get an extended look at the new position during spring training, and could split his time between left field and second base during the regular season. Whether it will work is another matter.
The Astros still have a six-year, $156 million offer on the table for Bregman, by far the top free agent remaining on the market, but the Tigers are in hot pursuit of him, and the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Red Sox have also shown interest. On Tuesday, Astros general manager Dana Brown made some headlines and raised some eyebrows when he described the team as having “lost [Kyle] Tucker and Bregman,” putting the third baseman in the past tense alongside the since-traded right fielder. However, Brown quickly acknowledged, “We’re continuing to have internal conversations because he’s still available.”
Those discussions have included how the Astros would align their infield in the event Bregman returned. In the December trade that sent Tucker to the Cubs, they received Isaac Paredes, who has major league experience at all four infield positions but has spent 86% of his innings at third over the past two seasons. A week later, they signed free agent Christian Walker to fill their first base vacancy. With Jeremy Peña entrenched at shortstop and Altuve at second, their infield would appear to be a finished product, albeit one that isn’t as good as a version featuring Bregman. Read the rest of this entry »
Major league job boards don’t exist, at least not for players. You can’t walk past some mythical player’s union clubhouse, see a sign that says “Team seeking middle reliever, please tear off a number and call it to apply,” and find a job that way. The team calls you, or emails your agent, and they do that after working up their own list of targets independently. Or at least, that’s what they tell us. But after seeing the Minnesota Twins acquire the same type of player for the third year running, as they did in signing Harrison Bader to a one-year deal this week, I’m not so sure.
Bader’s deal is for one year and $6.25 million, with bonuses that could kick in another $2 million. That’s a reasonable deal for a quality backup, and that’s exactly what Bader looks like. He’s put up between 300 and 450 plate appearances in six of the past seven seasons – the only year he missed that mark was in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. At first, that was because he couldn’t stay on the field, but in recent years, he’s turned into a defensive specialist and righty platoon bat.
How much do the Twins like those two roles? Well, in 2023, they traded for Michael A. Taylor, a defensive specialist and righty platoon bat, and then gave him 110 starts in center field. Sure, they had Byron Buxton, but that year Buxton never took the field, all the better to protect him from injuries. Taylor was so good that he got a new deal in free agency to head to Pittsburgh – so the Twins went out and traded for Manuel Margot, a “defensive specialist” and righty platoon bat. Read the rest of this entry »
Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images and Brett Davis-Imagn Images
With a 115 wRC+, the 2024 Orioles were the best offensive team in franchise history, outperforming even the most dominant Baltimore lineups from the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. Their 115 wRC+ was also good for second in the AL last season, trailing only their pennant-winning division rivals in New York. A couple thousand miles away, the Diamondbacks also finished with a best-in-franchise-history 115 wRC+. That wRC+ was good for second in the National League, trailing only Arizona’s World Series-winning division rivals in Los Angeles. How’s that for symmetry?
On Tuesday, the Birds and the Snakes continued to parallel one another, at least as far as their lineups are concerned. In the afternoon, the Orioles announced they had signed righty-batting outfielder Ramón Laureano, reportedly to a one-year, $4 million deal. Not long after, the D-backs confirmed they had re-signed righty-batting outfielder Randal Grichuk, reportedly for one year and $5 million guaranteed. Both deals also come with options for 2026. Laureano’s is a $6.5 million team option, while Grichuk’s is a $5 million mutual option with a $3 million buyout. His salary for 2025 is technically only $2 million, with that buyout making up the rest of his $5 million guarantee. There was a time when both Laureano and Grichuk were promising, multi-talented, everyday players. These days, however, they’ve each become role players with two primary jobs: handle a part-time gig in the outfield and hit well against left-handed pitching. That should be exactly what the Orioles and Diamondbacks ask them to do in 2025. Read the rest of this entry »
It was a bit of a weird assignment: “Hey, one of our most popular projections drops this week, would you mind telling everyone where you think it’s wrong?” Sure thing, bossman!
Joking aside, I get it. Playoff odds are probabilistic; if you asked me how many teams would miss their projected win total, I’d say half are going to come in high and the other half are going to come in low. They follow a set methodology that you can’t tweak if the results look off. That means the standings page is blind to factors human observers can see. It doesn’t know who’s getting divorced, who made a conditioning breakthrough over the winter, and who just really freaking hated the old pitching coach who got fired.
Nevertheless, these numbers are valuable because the projection system doesn’t mistake anecdotes for data and overrate the intangible. It’s a reminder to trust your gut, but only to an extent. Read the rest of this entry »
Today, we released the first run of our playoff odds for the 2025 season. With both the ZiPS and Steamer projections loaded in and playing time projections added to the mix, the FanGraphs supercomputer (okay, fine, our cloud services account) can get cranking and spit out some predictions. As is customary, I’ll walk through my first thoughts on them, while later today, Michael Baumann will contribute his own takeaways on the teams most likely to surprise our model. Let’s quickly walk through the process, and then get to the takeaways.
The model itself remains simple. We use those aggregated production and playing time numbers I mentioned earlier to create team-level projections, then use BaseRuns to turn individual outcome projections into scoring and run prevention. That gives us team strength against a neutral opponent. We use those values to simulate the season 20,000 times. The odds are a summary of those simulations as of earlier this morning. That might sound intuitive, but intuition doesn’t always match reality, so let’s go division-by-division to look at how our model got there and what I think of it. Read the rest of this entry »
Scott Taetsch-Imagn Images and Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Hello, and welcome to another installment of Transaction Analysis: Reliever Roundup Edition. Would you like to start with a joke? What’s that? You’re foaming at the mouth because the thought of starting with a joke is so exciting that you’ve lost all control of your bodily functions? I’m so glad we’re on the same page. Here we go:
Knock, knock.
Ok, now this is where you say: Who’s there? Great job.
The left-handed middle reliever with a fastball that averages just under 91 mph, who put up 0.5 WAR last season and on Tuesday signed a one-year, $3 million deal to return to his old team in his age-35 season.
Alright, now say it with me: Which one?
Thank you for your help. I think we nailed it. On Tuesday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Danny Coulombe, who spent the 2020-2022 seasons with the Twins, had agreed to return to Minnesota. Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star-Tribune reported that the deal is for one year and a $3 million. Shortly thereafter, ESPN’s Jeff Passan announced that Tim Hill, who joined the Yankees in June 2024, would be returning to the Bronx on a $2.5 million deal, plus a $3 million club option for 2026 with a $350,000 buyout clause. Wait, I probably shouldn’t have explained the joke.
Tim Hill
Starting with New York, the Yankees really needed Hill back. He’s the only left-handed pitcher in their bullpen. During the team’s 2024 World Series run, he ran a 1.08 ERA over 10 appearances and 8 1/3 innings. The team’s only other left-handed relievers were Tim Mayza, who threw 2 1/3 innings and is now a Pirate, and Nestor Cortes, who is famously a starter, certainly didn’t look comfortable in his two postseason relief appearances, and is now a Brewer.
Hill is also coming off the best stretch of his career. He started the 2024 season with the White Sox, running a 5.87 ERA over 27 appearances before being released in June. The Yankees signed him two days later, and he finished the season with a 2.05 ERA over 44 innings and 34 appearances. What was different in New York? For starters, a decent bit of luck. Hill allowed a .436 BABIP in Chicago and a .238 BABIP in New York. However, the Yankees also made some drastic changes to Hill’s pitch mix. After arriving in New York, he drastically reduced his four-seamer usage and ditched his slider almost entirely.
Hill doesn’t miss bats and he doesn’t miss the plate, which means tons of balls in play. He’s a true side-armer with an arm angle of -20 degrees, and in September and October, he leaned (even further) into that identity, throwing his sinker 80% of the time, his four-seamer 18% of the time, and his slider just 2% of the time. Although batters made louder contact than they had during his time in Chicago, Hill’s already huge groundball rate rose to 70% with the Yankees. He allowed 117 groundballs and just 18 fly balls; in seven of his 35 regular season appearances, every single ball in play that he surrendered was a grounder. You have to imagine the Yankees are hoping to run that strategy right back, encouraging Hill to lean on the sinker and let opponents beat the ball into the ground for as long as it works.
Danny Coulombe
Coulombe returns to the Twins after two seasons with the Orioles, and the need he fills is every bit as dire. The only other lefties the Twins have are Brent Headrick, who has three big league innings to his name, and Kody Funderburk, who ran a 6.49 ERA in 2024. RosterResource doesn’t have Headrick or Funderburk in their projected bullpen. As you might recall, the Minnesota bullpen’s 4.89 ERA in the second half was the third worst in baseball and a major reason that the team crashed out of playoff contention (though it’s worth noting that the bullpen’s 3.72 xFIP was actually seventh best). The need is more general, however, as Coulombe is the only player the Twins have signed to a major league deal this offseason. If that sounds somewhat familiar, you could be thinking of the trade deadline, during which time Minnesota was battling for its life and made just one move, trading for reliever Trevor Richards. To put it bluntly, this is an infuriating time to be a Twins fan.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Coulombe. He has a long track record of excellence, with a 2.69 ERA over the last five seasons, 2.92 during his three seasons in Minnesota and 2.56 during his two in Baltimore. However, he’s only thrown 130 1/3 major league innings over that period, an average of just 26 per season. In 2024, Coulombe was running a 2.42 ERA and 2.86 FIP when his season was stopped in its tracks in June for surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He returned to make four scoreless appearances in September, but his fastball velocity dropped to just below 89 mph. The Orioles let him walk rather than pick up a $4 million option. It’s hard to imagine the Twins signing him without feeling secure in the knowledge that his velocity would bounce back up to the 91-92 range, but it’s certainly something to watch for as the season starts. Coloumbe also spent most of the 2022 season on the injured list due to a hip impingement and missed time with biceps tendonitis in 2023. Health will be a major factor in determining whether the one major league signing the Twins have made this offseason actually has an impact.
There’s also some question about just what kind of pitcher Coulombe will be with the Twins. Upon joining the Orioles in 2023, Coulombe traded his slider for a sweeper with an extra eight inches of horizontal break, ditched his changeup entirely, and introduced a cutter that replaced his four-seamer as his most-used pitch. In 2024, Coulombe threw either the cutter or the sweeper nearly 60% of the time. If there’s one thing the Twins love, it’s a four-seamer – they’ve finished in the top four in four-seamer percentage in each of the last three seasons – so it will be interesting to see whether they encourage Coulombe to stick with what worked for him in Baltimore, or get him to return to what, you know, worked for him in Minnesota.
That’s the tricky thing about Coulombe; his performance has been consistent while his availability has been anything but. Every pitcher presents some level of injury risk, and Coulombe’s stuff and profile make him not just a great fit for Minnesota, but a desperately needed addition. All the same, if the team is really only going to make one addition, might it have been wiser to choose a safer option?
