Francisco Lindor has played MVP-caliber baseball for the Mets over the past three seasons and change. He finished as the runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in last year’s NL MVP voting after ninth-place finishes in 2022 and ‘23, and over that span, no position player besides Aaron Judge has accumulated more WAR than his 20.8. Yet Lindor hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2019, in part because he’s often started slowly, making it easier for voters and managers to bypass him. While he was scuffling along in typical April fashion until eight days ago, he’s spurred a seven-game winning streak that’s given the Mets the best record in baseball at 18-7.

Through 25 games, this is the Mets’ best start since 1988, when they also jumped out to an 18-7 start. Those Mets finished 100-60, taking the NL East title under manager Davey Johnson before losing a seven-game NLCS to the upstart Dodgers. They also started 18-7 in 1972; the only time they’ve done better was in 1986, when they started 20-5 and went on to win 108 games and the World Series.

Admittedly, these Mets haven’t assembled their record against the most robust competition. While they did just sweep a three-game series from the Phillies, who won 95 games last year, they’ve played 12 of their 25 games against the Marlins (who lost 100 games last season), A’s (who lost 93), and Blue Jays (who lost 88); their other 10 games have come against the Astros (who won 88), the Cardinals (who won 83), and Twins (who won 82) — and St. Louis and Minnesota appear to have taken several steps back from their 2024 mediocrity, at least in the early going. The Mets have won blowouts (4-1 in games decided by five or more runs) and close ones (7-2 in one-run games); they’ve dropped series only to the Astros and Twins, each of whom took the rubber game of a best-of-three by one run. Competition aside, New York’s record isn’t soft, in that the club is only about one win ahead of its major league-best PythagenPat and BaseRuns winning percentages (.675 and .672, respectively). Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Freeland is scheduled to make his 206th start for the Colorado Rockies on Friday night, and when he does, he’ll tie Aaron Cook for the most in franchise history. The 31-year-old southpaw began building that number when he made his major league debut in April 2017. Three years earlier, he’d been drafted eighth overall by the NL West club out of the University of Evansville.

When our Rockies Top Prospects list was published in November 2016, Freeland was ranked no. 6 in a system that Eric Longenhagen then described as “both interesting and complex,” as well as excellent and underrated. Our lead prospect analyst assigned the lanky left-hander a 50 FV.

What did Freeland’s scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Freeland to respond to it.

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“Freeland missed a huge chunk of the 2015 season dealing with bone chips in his elbow and shoulder fatigue, and he looked bad in the Fall League when he returned.”

“That is completely inaccurate,” Freeland replied. “I led the Fall League in ERA. I was a Fall League All-Star. My first start was not good, but every start after that I was nails. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. Normally, this column is a celebration of the extreme athleticism and talent on display across the majors. This week, though, I found myself drawn to the oddities instead. Unhittable 98-mph splinkers? Boring. Let’s talk about a pitcher who can’t strike anyone out and yet still gets results. Some of the fastest human beings on the planet stealing bases? I’d prefer some slower, larger guys getting in on the act. Brilliant, unbelievable outfield catches? I was more fascinated by a play that didn’t get made. The only thing that hasn’t changed? Mike Trout still isn’t to be trifled with. So thanks to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for his incredible idea for a sports column, and let’s get down to business.

1. In-Game Adjustments
In the 15th year of his career, Mike Trout doesn’t stand out the way he did early on. He’s no longer the fastest and strongest player every time he takes the field; he’s more “slugging corner guy” than “perennial MVP frontrunner” these days. But one thing hasn’t changed: Trout’s wonderful ability to adapt.

Landen Roupp faced the Angels last Saturday, and he leaned on his curveball. He always does, to be fair. It’s one of the best curveballs in baseball, with enormous two-plane break, and he throws it 40% of the time, more than any of his other pitches. In fact, he throws his curveball more often than any other starting pitcher. Trout had never faced Roupp before, and so he struggled to deal with the signature offering.
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“I’m so sick of this friggin’ guy,” is one of the greatest compliments one can pay an opposing athlete. And the Dodgers must be sick to death of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs and Dodgers, who opened the season together in Japan, just played five games in the span of 13 days to complete their season series. In those five games, Crow-Armstrong did his normal speed-and-defense act, but he also went 10-for-22 with four home runs.

In the two-game series that just ended, PCA went 3-for-5 with a home run and a double in the first game, and 3-for-4 with a home run and two stolen bases in the second. The Cubs won each game by one run; I don’t think it’s at all unfair to say that in a series that featured the Dodgers’ vaunted three-MVP lineup, plus Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernández, and a partridge in a pear tree, it was the young PCA who singlehandedly turned the tide. Read the rest of this entry »

You’re welcome, Yankees fans. Exactly one year ago today, I checked in on Aaron Judge while the slugger was in the throes of a season-opening slump. Though the Yankees were 16-8 when I wrote that piece, it was a dark time for Judge, who a few days earlier had heard a smattering of Bronx cheers while striking out four times on Aaron Judge Bobblehead Day and conceded with typical Jeterian diplomacy and humor, “I’d probably be doing the same thing in their situation.” He’d shown faint signs of turning things around since, combining a couple of days worth of hard-hit balls — including a double on April 23, his first extra-base hit in 10 days — with the apparent end of a strikeout spree, but he wasn’t out of the woods.

In the year since, Judge has put together what might be the best offensive performance any of us has seen. He not only recovered from his slump, he went on to hit 58 homers, win his third home run title and American League MVP award, help the Yankees to their first World Series since 2009, and secure his place in the pantheon of the game’s greatest hitters. What do you even do with these numbers besides gawk?

For sheer offensive impact as measured by wRC+, that performance would outrank any AL/NL season — even Barry Bonds’ best:

Read the rest of this entry »

Bryce Miller didn’t have an especially good start at Fenway Park on Tuesday. The Seattle Mariners right-hander allowed five hits, four walks, and four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings. He took the loss in an 8-3 Red Sox win.

Alex Bregman was responsible for much of the damage. Boston’s third baseman tagged Miller for a run-scoring double in the third inning, and he followed that up with a two-run double in the fifth. His track record against the 26-year-old hurler belied the success. Heading into the game, Bregman was 1-for-15 against Miller, the lone hit being an infield single last May.

Not surprisingly, Bregman ended up being a main focus when I spoke to Miller on Wednesday afternoon. I began our conversation by asking him which plate appearances he’s dwelled upon the most when looking back at his uneven performance the night before.

“Most of the thought has gone to the walks,” Miller replied. “I wanted to have a quick fifth inning, but after getting ahead of [Ceddanne] Rafaela 1-2, I didn’t execute a few pitches and ended up walking him. After that, I got [Jarren] Duran out on a groundball, but then I walked [Rafael] Devers. Pretty much, there went my chances of a quick inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Ross had a bummer of a 2024 season – a lower back injury ended his season after only 74 innings. He had a bummer of a start to 2025, too. Opponents were hitting him hard and he couldn’t miss a bat to save his life. But Tuesday night against the Mets, manager Rob Thomson said, Hey Joe, I trust you.

Ross was in the game unexpectedly early after Cristopher Sánchez departed with forearm soreness after only two innings. Ross came in to start the third inning, with the Phillies trailing 2-1. He came out of spring training in a short-relief role, but more recently he’d been used as a long reliever, and this particular situation called for multiple innings. So Ross came in and looked great, the best he has all year. After Pete Alonso greeted him with a single, Ross retired the next six Mets in order, two on strikeouts.

Two innings matched Ross’s longest outing of the year, and his pitch count was already up to a season-high 32. How long would you stick with a reliever who began the day with a 7.45 ERA, a 5.30 FIP, and an 11.1% strikeout rate in a one-run game? At some point, Thomson would have to take him out, and the bottom of the fifth inning seemed like the perfect time. The top of the Mets order was due up, which meant Francisco Lindor. And Francisco Lindor owns Joe Ross.
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The worst part of a long rebuild is about a third of the way through, when the teardown is nearly finished and the daunting enormousness of the task starts to sink in. At that point, the old guard is gone but the core of the next good team is still in the minors at best — sometimes, the next superstar is still in ninth grade.

But someone has to go out there and log some minutes for the tanking ballclub. And in every rebuild — sometimes because of keen scouting or inspired development, but often as not just through sheer volume — one or two of those random unfortunates breaks out and survives into the next competitive window.

I’ve long been fascinated by players in this situation, because they fall into one of two categories. First, there’s the Rhys Hoskins class. Hoskins was an uninspiring college first base prospect who exploded into the one bright spot on some late-2010s Phillies teams that I cannot describe accurately on a family website. Read the rest of this entry »

Perhaps it was the batting order switcheroo, or maybe it was the minor league ballpark. Bumped out of the leadoff spot for the first time since last August 11, and down to fifth in the order for the first time during Bruce Bochy’s run as manager of the Rangers, Marcus Semien recorded his first multi-hit game of the season on Tuesday night in Sacramento. The 34-year-old second baseman went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer, a walk, a sacrifice fly, and four runs batted in against the Athletics — a much-needed positive sign given his season-opening slump.

Semien’s big night took place at Sutter Health Park, where the relocated A’s and their opponents have bashed out 5.4 runs per game while batting .270/.342/.466. Whether or not the venue was a factor, Bochy’s new lineup worked like a charm, as new leadoff hitter Josh Smith, new no. 2 hitter Wyatt Langford, and the slumping Jake Burger all homered for the Rangers as well. All of the shots were served up by 29-year-old righty Osvaldo Bido; Semien, who had already plated the Rangers’ second run with a first-inning sacrifice fly, crushed a middle-middle sinker 417 feet to center field to break open a 4-2 game in the fifth inning:

The homer was just Semien’s second of the season, and just his third extra-base hit. He entered the game batting .141/.209/.192 for a 17 wRC+, with all four of those numbers ranking among the bottom four among the 170 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His new and improved slash line (.160/.231/.247, 39 wRC+) now puts him among the bottom 10 qualifiers in those categories, but he isn’t close to being the worst on the team. Joc Pederson (.052/.141/.069, -37 wRC+) is having even bigger problems, including an 0-for-3 on Tuesday, but the Rangers don’t have nearly as much invested in him as they do in Semien, whom they signed to a seven-year, $175 million deal in December 2021. Read the rest of this entry »

Over his first five starts, Aaron Nola is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA. On Monday night against the Mets, Nola nearly put up his best performance of the season, allowing two earned runs over six innings before things went off the rails. In the seventh inning, the two runners that he bequeathed to the bullpen scored, leaving him with a final line of 6 1/3 innings and four earned runs. Still, it was an improvement.

No one has more losses or fewer wins than Nola this season. Only three qualified pitchers have a higher ERA. How much should we be panicking right now? I will tell you up front that I don’t know the answer. There’s plenty going on, and I don’t know how to make all the pieces fit neatly, so I’m just going to lay out what I’ve learned. Let’s start with a whole bunch of advanced ERA estimators. Read the rest of this entry »