Forced to squeeze their roster down to a 26-man limit on Monday, the Mets decided to say goodbye to veteran second baseman Robinson Canó, designating him and the two years left on his contract for assignment. Canó, who will turn 40 this year, struggled greatly in 12 games in 2021, going 8-for-41 with just a single extra-base hit, a solo homer off of Zach Davies. While he could theoretically be claimed on waivers before being released, any team adding him by this route would commit to the $40 million still owed him through 2023, which is, let’s just say, unlikely to happen.

The decisions both to play Canó and to cut him this year were surprisingly easy. He did play very well the last time we saw him, in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, hitting .316/.352/.544 with 10 homers for a 142 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR in just 49 games. The problem is that the last time we saw him was 2020 thanks to a PED suspension that November, his second positive steroid test under MLB’s drug-testing regimen and one that cost him the entire ’21 campaign.

I wasn’t really worried about the suspension itself; I’ve spent the last decade trying to find some kind of discernible pattern, short- or long-term, of over- or under-performance for the group of players busted for PED use and have yet to find anything actually useful. But what did worry me was the missed time coming on the back of an artificially short season for a 39-year-old player playing a premium defensive position. While Canó was quite good in 2020, his 2019 season was by far his worst season in a long time.

While I think it made perfect sense for the Mets to open the season with Canó and see what he had left, there was no particular reason for them to give him a very long leash. Jeff McNeil is playing well, and the team should roll with him starting most games at second. And with the need to cut the roster from 28 to 26 players, who would have been a better idea to cut? Luis Guillorme has been a rock-solid role player during the last few years, and even if he were struggling, he’s the backup shortstop. Dominic Smith hasn’t had a great start, but he’s contributed more than Canó has. Optioning Tylor Megill or Drew Smith would have have been completely absurd.

Mets owner Steve Cohen certainly ought to know a sunk cost when he sees one, and there’s no psychological need to salvage the Canó trade, as it was something this régime inherited from the Wilpons and former general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, not a transaction that they masterminded. The Mets expect to contend this year and are in first place by three games, so this is a team that ought to be more interested in certainty rather than chasing the chance that Canó turns things around.

Is Canó done? I wouldn’t necessarily shovel that last bit of dirt onto his career quite that quickly. Neither ZiPS (.254/.298/.393) nor Steamer (.249/.298/.385) are all that optimistic, but the margin of error here is absolutely huge. For a team that’s actually desperate at second base or a lousy one that can afford to absorb such a risky player, there’s still an argument for Canó as an addition to the roster. It wouldn’t be preposterous for the White Sox, for example, to take a look given that the combination of Leury García and Josh Harrison has been positively dreadful at second.

Whether or not Canó bounces back to close out his 10-year, $216 million contract, there’s no denying that his career is coming to an end. And overall, it’s a sad one, particularly given the friendly rivalry between Canó and another of the great second basemen of that era: Dustin Pedroia. Which player was the better second baseman was a hotly debated topic a decade ago and a fun part of the usual Red Sox-Yankees rivalry. While I don’t want to name any names, a couple of huge fans I know on Twitter spent a long time arguing that question, frequently roping me in the conversation to settle a particular aspect of the argument.

It would have been crazy to say in 2012, but I assume now that neither will make the Hall of Fame. Knee injuries basically ended Pedroia’s career at age 33, and his counting numbers are likely too light for him to get 75% of Hall voters on his side. Canó’s numbers are closer, but he’s unlikely to reach 3,000 hits. More importantly, if the first PED suspension didn’t slam the door shut in Cooperstown, the second one certainly did. While I intend to check Canó’s box someday, I’m confident I’m in the minority.

Is Robinson Canó done? Maybe, maybe not. The Mets rightly decided that they didn’t want to be the ones who needed to find out the answer to that question.

Who’s the best reliever in baseball? There are multiple ways to go about answering that question. You could pick the guy with the lowest projected ERA; that’s Josh Hader, with Emmanuel Clase, Liam Hendriks, and Taylor Rogers close behind. You could pick the guy with the best reputation; I’d go with Hendriks or Hader, but if you’re a giant Raisel Iglesias or Aroldis Chapman fan, I wouldn’t hold it against you.

If you want to look at what’s happening on the field, though, the best reliever in baseball is clearly Ryan Helsley. It’s not “probably Ryan Helsley.” It’s not “Ryan Helsley is in the conversation.” It’s just Ryan Helsley. He’s been absolutely dominant to start the year, so dominant that I’m not sure I have the right words for it.

If you follow the NL Central, you’ve surely heard of Helsley. He’s been in the majors for parts of the last four seasons as a flamethrowing reliever, and that part isn’t changing. He topped out at 103 mph this weekend, the kind of heat that makes Pitching Ninja sprint to his computer and search for the right emoji (he used fire, if you’re keeping score at home). But that pitch reduces Helsley’s performance to “he throws hard sometimes,” which undersells him to a comical extent.
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It would be an understatement to say that Eric Hosmer’s contract with the Padres has generally not worked out. Over the first four years of his eight-year, $144 million deal, the former Royal netted -0.1 WAR in over 2,000 plate appearances, making him one of the majors’ least valuable players to receive substantial playing time in that span. He’s been red-hot in the season’s first few weeks, however, and while he won’t sustain his current .382/.447/.579 clip, the question is whether he can still help a team that was close to unloading him just a month ago.

Hosmer signed with the Padres in February 2018 (right around the time this scribe joined the FanGraphs fold and shortly after noted Hosmer skeptic Dave Cameron — who included the first basemen among his free agent landmines — joined the Padres’ research and development department). In his first four seasons in San Diego, he produced WARs of -0.5, -0.9, 0.7, and 0.6, with the high coming in his 38-game 2020 season, during which he missed time due to a stomach ailment and a fractured left finger but hit .287/.333/.517 (128 wRC+) in 156 PA.

In the context of the first 11 seasons of Hosmer’s career, it would not be unreasonable to call that season a small-sample fluke. From 2011-21, he had nearly 200 38-game stretches across which he slugged .500 or better even if we limit those stretches to the same season and count overlapping ones. Yet he has never slugged .500 or better over a 162-game season, nor has he posted an isolated power of .200 or better. He maxed out on both of those in 2017, when he hit .318/.385/.498 with a .179 ISO while matching his career high in homers (25), a performance that led to the Padres backing up the Brinks truck. Read the rest of this entry »

I have some good news about the Yankees. Their collective 120 wRC+ is tied for first among all teams in baseball, an achievement that seems like an amalgamation of skill rather than luck. Case in point: They’re leading the league in every conceivable Statcast metric, including average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. By hitting baseballs at blistering speeds, the Yankees are turning them into valuable extra-base hits. It’s an ideal process, especially in a season where said hits have been harder to come by.

Next, I have some not-as-good news about the Yankees. It’s something I noticed while looking into Joey Gallo. The lefty slugger recently recorded his first two homers of the season, but his overall batting line is still under water. He’s striking out over 40% of the time, and the little contact he does make hasn’t returned much. You might think this is because Gallo goes after pitches he shouldn’t à la Javier Báez, but last season, he ran one of the best out-of-zone swing rates around. The problem is that even when he’s offered an attractive pitch, he has a gruesome tendency to whiff at it. When Gallo slumps, he doesn’t do so in a manner that’s even the slightest bit flattering. Read the rest of this entry »

“If something cannot go forever, it will stop.” Credited to economist Herb Stein, this tautology, sometimes known as Stein’s law, has broad application past the field of economics: the Earth will end, the sun will end, the ability of the universe to sustain life will end, all the non-Top Chef shows on Bravo will end (hopefully), and we’ll end. Joey Votto does not exist outside of the space-time universe, and his 2022 season so far makes it look like his career will end before all of these things. Or will it?

Votto’s career has looked shaky at times before, but he has made comebacks before: from a leg injury that cost him half a season, a mid-career power outage, and a huge dropoff in play at age 35. He’s had enough successful comebacks to become a rarity in baseball: a highly paid star first baseman who doesn’t make his team regret a very large contract covering his 30s. But while he’s gotten off to slow starts before, a .122/.278/.135 line is something else.

Perhaps even worse is that so many of his non-baseball card stats look abysmal as well. Votto is striking out at nearly triple the rate of his 2017 peak. His soft-hit and hard-hit percentages of 22% and 20%, respectively, are closer to Ben Revere than a slugger, and those numbers are twice and half his career rates, respectively. Votto’s average exit velocity of 86.4 mph is six ticks off last year’s 92.9 mark, and his 70% contact rate is the lowest of his career. Read the rest of this entry »

Another week of the 2022 season is in the books and there’s been some significant movement in the power rankings. We’re still at the point where a hot or cold week can really change the outlook for a team, but we’re also starting to see some clubs separate themselves from the pack — for good or for ill.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking that is then presented in tiers below.

It’s a good time to be a baseball fan in New York. Both the Yankees and Mets have been playing fantastic baseball to start the season and both teams lead their respective divisions after a month of play. The Yanks rattled off a nine-game win streak with sweeps of the Guardians, Orioles, and the Royals. It took a little while for their bats to wake up earlier in the season, but they scored 7.4 runs per game during this stretch, including four games with double digit run totals. Unsurprisingly, it’s been their sluggers who have led the way. Anthony Rizzo’s nine home runs lead all of baseball, with a three dinger day on Tuesday and another on Friday padding his total. Not to be outdone, Aaron Judge blasted five homers last week, including two on Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, when I was waxing poetic about Jeff McNeil’s ability to wait for a good pitch and then drop it into left for a single, I made an offhand mention to the player with the best swing decisions of 2021: Mike Tauchman, who doesn’t even play in the major leagues anymore. Then I moved on.

That wasn’t an accident. It’s what we in “the business” (no one calls it this) like to think of as a preview. I got multiple texts (another pro writer tip: “multiple” sounds better than “two”) from friends this weekend asking where the whole list of hitters was. That list is right here!

As a quick refresher, the idea here is to take every swing decision a hitter makes and compress them into one number. Every hitter who saw at least 50 pitches in each of the four attack zones (heart, shadow, chase, waste) is on the list. I took each of those rates and gave them league-average production for those decisions. The result looks like this, stated in terms of run value per 100 of the relevant zone/decision combination (take a waste pitch, say, or swing at a pitch in the shadow zone):

From there, I assumed a league-average percentage of pitches in each zone. Combined with each hitter’s swing rates, that let me produce an overall run value assuming an average rate of pitches in each zone.

Here’s a quick guide on how to interpret these numbers. For each hitter, there are three numbers. The first two are just the same statistic said different ways. The first metric, “RV/100,” is how many runs above or below average each hitter on the list would be, per 100 pitches, if they got exactly average results on every zone/decision combination. The higher the number, the better positioned a hitter is to succeed, by taking tough pitches and swinging at good ones.
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The Learning and Developing a Pitch series is back for another season, and we’re once again hearing from pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features Wil Crowe on his circle changeup and Nick Martinez on his made-in-Japan Vulcan changeup.

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Wil Crowe, Pittsburgh Pirates

“I learned a changeup when I was about eight or 10 years old. Ex-big leaguer Steve Searcy lived in Knoxville, and my dad wanted to find me lessons — he’d played college ball, but wasn’t a pitcher — and that’s who he found. Steve was always big with fastball/changeup. I didn’t throw a curveball or slider until I was a senior in high school. Growing up, it was fastball/change. Locate the fastball, and the changeup comes off of it.

“The grip is a circle change. Now it’s a little modified; it’s out in my fingers a little more than it used to be. Middle finger and ring finger hold onto the laces, and the thumb is underneath. So it started out more of a traditional circle ball, and now it’s more on the end of the fingers. I did that in college, after I grew into my body. My hand was bigger and I was able to grip the ball better. But I think that starting at such a young age helped, because it’s a comfort thing. Read the rest of this entry »

Hoby Milner was credited with a win on April 12. For the vast majority of pitchers in their sixth big-league season, that wouldn’t be particularly notable. It was for Milner. The 31-year-old Milwaukee Brewers reliever was pitching in his 96th career game, and it was the first time he’d been awarded a W. Moreover, it was the first time Milner had been awarded a decision.

That’s a record. No pitcher in MLB history had ever made that many appearances to start a career without getting either a win or loss. And it isn’t even close. Michael Tonkin went his first 62 before getting a decision — he also got a win — with the Minnesota Twins in 2016.

Milner had an inkling that he might be a record-holder well before he became the pitcher of record in Milwaukee’s 5-4 win over the Baltimore Orioles on April 12.

“I knew around 60-something that it was kind of a lot,” Milner told me at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park earlier this week. “It was a big enough number that I did some research on my own and saw that some guy had around 60 to begin his career. I don’t remember what the website was, but it didn’t necessarily seem like it was 100% legit.”

It turns out that it was. A member of the Brewers’ media relations staff confirmed it after Milner’s remarkable streak came to an end. Read the rest of this entry »

The Los Angeles Angels are off to a 13-7 start. A couple of the big reasons for that are not unexpected. Mike Trout, who hadn’t played in a regular-season game in 11 months, is off to a blazing start even by his robust standards, sporting an OPS north of 1.200 and already nearing the sort of WAR we expect a league-average player to post over six months. Shohei Ohtani isn’t torching the league to quite the same degree but he’s also on a 6-WAR pace when you combine his hitting and pitching. Still, in the past, the team has struggled even with two superstars at the top of their game. What’s working for Los Angeles now is truly unusual compared to recent years: getting lots of contributions from the other guys. And none of “the other guys” have stood taller so far than Taylor Ward.

I’m always one of the first to yell “April!” about small-sample-size stars, but Ward’s performance has still been stunning. His .381/.509/.762 line calculates out to a 269 wRC+, besting his teammate Trout and everyone else with at least 50 PA this season. What makes it even more impressive is that some of the numbers fueling that line are of the sort that are meaningful in a small sample.

There’s a bit of a fallacy with extreme data in small samples (if it has a name, I don’t know it). In baseball, when a .280 hitter hits .300, people accept it as normal, but when a .280 hitter hits .500, it is generally written off as a fluke. But while the “hitting .500” part is, the .280 hitter who is hitting .500 is more likely to have improved than the one posting .300. Read the rest of this entry »