I worry that Jackson Merrill’s incredible rookie season has been appropriately recognized but underexamined. For any rookie to put up 5.3 WAR and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting is incredible; for a kid who was 20 years old on Opening Day and learning to play center field on the job, it’s extraordinary.
As impressive as that one-line summary is, Paul Skenes (and to a lesser extent Jackson Chourio) sucked up a lot of the shine that would have accompanied such a performance in most seasons. Shine can be hard to come by for a player on a West Coast non-Dodgers team that’s already got plenty of stars to promote.
So I found myself, in the dead of winter, contemplating what comes after the abstract for Merrill. Specifically, whether a certain nit is worth picking. Read the rest of this entry »
If you had to associate a single current major leaguer with throwing sinkers, Framber Valdez would be toward the top of the list. His standout career is all about throwing sinkers and keeping the ball on the ground. So imagine my surprise when I was perusing a leaderboard of starters who used their secondaries most frequently with two strikes in 2024. The top of that list is dotted with pitchers who confounded my classification system: We’ve got Corbin Burnes, Graham Ashcraft, and Clarke Schmidt there representing the cutter brigade. Most of the other pitchers in the top 10 mix in cutters liberally with two strikes. Then we’ve got Valdez, in 10th and looking sorely out of place.
Train your eyes on Valdez, and you’ll start to ask yourself: What’s going on here? In some ways, his statistics are consistent to the point of monotony. Take a look at his strikeout and walk rates over the years, plus some league-adjusted run prevention numbers:
Steady as She Goes – Framber Valdez, Career
Year
K%
BB%
ERA-
FIP-
2018
22.1%
15.6%
53
112
2019
20.7%
13.4%
130
110
2020
26.4%
5.6%
81
64
2021
21.9%
10.1%
73
95
2022
23.5%
8.1%
73
78
2023
24.8%
7.1%
82
82
2024
24.0%
7.8%
73
80
After some early-career wildness, Valdez has produced a string of near-identical seasons. But while doing that, he’s cut back on using his sinker to finish off hitters. I know what you’re thinking: Sure, to throw his wipeout curveball. But nope! It’s a changeup story:
A key piece of the 2024 Detroit Tigers reunited with the team on Sunday, as starting pitcher Jack Flaherty signed a two-year deal worth $35 million. Flaherty excelled for the Tigers last year, putting up a 2.95 ERA and a 3.12 FIP in 106 2/3 innings over 18 starts, good for 2.1 WAR. With the Tigers seemingly out of the playoff race in July, he was shipped to the Dodgers, with whom he won the World Series. He was respectable over 10 regular-season starts with Los Angeles, but his performance was decidedly mixed in the postseason.
Like many short-term contracts for solid players, this deal comes with its own ifs, ands, and buts. Flaherty’s guaranteed money is front-loaded, structured as a one-year, $25 million deal with a player option for $10 million in 2026 that increases to $20 million if he starts 15 games in 2025. Whether one sees the deal as a two-year contract with an opt-out or a one-year contract with a player option is a “potato, po-tah-to” issue that really doesn’t matter here; in this case, they’re the same functional thing.
What does matter is that Flaherty’s market appears to not have developed as much as that of some of the other top pitchers available. While it shouldn’t raise an eyebrow that Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes got much bigger contracts, Flaherty also received a lighter deal than Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, and Luis Severino. While Flaherty didn’t miss any significant time due to injury last year — he skipped only a single start with lower back pain in July — questions about his back were enough for the Yankees to have second thoughts about trading for him at the deadline. The Dodgers were happy enough to acquire him, and though his strikeout rate dropped off (32% to 26%), he was certainly a net plus for an injury-thinned starting staff down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »
Jared Koenig’s path to big-league success was anything but smooth. The southpaw didn’t throw his first pitch in affiliated baseball until he was 27 years old, that coming in the Oakland Athletics organization after three seasons on the indie-ball circuit. And while he made his MLB debut the following year, he appeared in just 10 games, logging a 5.72 ERA and losing three of four decision. That was in 2022. Subsequently signed by San Diego, he put up nothing-special numbers in Triple-A and was cut loose by the Padres midway through the 2023 campaign.
The Brewers gave him another opportunity. Milwaukee inked the 6-foot-5 left-hander to a contract prior to last season, and they’re certainly glad they did. Working primarily out of the bullpen — he served as an opener on six occasions — Koenig made 55 appearances for the NL Central champs, putting up a 2.47 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 62 frames. Moreover, he was credited with nine wins and one save. Seemingly out of the blue, he’d come into his own as a 30-year-old rookie.
Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded of January, friends! The offseason continues apace, even as three qualifying-offer-tagged free agents are without a team and Nolan Arenado is still a Cardinal as the calendar flips to February. Let’s get to it.
Right now, this has no effect. Kim will be out until May — at best — as he recovers from the shoulder surgery he had at the end of last season. Until then, Taylor Walls and José Caballero will cover shortstop, as they did last year. Once Kim is healthy, there might not be room on the roster for both Walls and Caballero since there are some redundancies between the two, though Caballero could get some time in the outfield to give manager Kevin Cash some more options.
Effect on Other Teams
Even if he won’t be ready for Opening Day, Kim was something that no remaining free agent is: unequivocally a starting-caliber shortstop. Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias are nice pieces who should play plenty for whichever teams sign them, but they’re not guys you’d ideally want to give four or five plate appearances every single game. Unless the Twins suddenly make Carlos Correa available or the Blue Jays sell (very) low on Bo Bichette, the trade market doesn’t have obvious answers for shortstop-needy teams either.
Effect on Similar Players
Kim was in a class of his own because of his injury, so his contract has little impact on any remaining free agents.
Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer for One Year, $15.5 Million
If nothing else, Toronto’s rotation is rich with experience. Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt have combined for over 44 years of service time, with newbie Bowden Francis and his mere year of service likely to round out the starting five. Scherzer’s signing probably bumps Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen, giving the Blue Jays six capable starters at the major league level, with Alek Manoah due back sometime down the stretch.
That depth is important to have for any team, especially so for the Jays since they really don’t have much in the upper minors. For that reason, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to add another starter to the mix; they’ve expressed interest in Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, the two best starters available.
Effect on Other Teams
The Blue Jays were reported as the favorites for Scherzer the day before he signed, so this pairing shouldn’t come as a surprise for the other clubs who were in the mix. And it shouldn’t be all that disappointing either. Scherzer turns 41 at the end of July and is no longer the coveted ace he was for the majority of his career; he’s a quality veteran starter, but nothing more. To be clear, teams need quality veteran starters, but there are plenty of those still available, such as Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Kyle Hart, Andrew Heaney, Spencer Turnbull, Jakob Junis, and Cal Quantrill.
Effect on Similar Players
AARP discounts apparently don’t apply to Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, and Alex Cobb, all of whom signed for at least $14 million on one-year deals. Quintana, Gibson, and Lynn are all entering their age-36 seasons or beyond, and $14 million should be a reasonable target for all of them, especially with Cobb getting his payday coming off just 22 MLB innings (including the postseason).
Estévez is certainly being paid closer money, and I’d guess that’s where he’ll slot in the Kansas City bullpen even if Lucas Erceg has better stuff and actually pitched better than Estévez down the stretch last season, after both pitchers were traded ahead of the deadline. Regardless of how exactly the games are finished, Estévez gives the Royals another high-octane reliever to go along with Erceg and Hunter Harvey. Side-arming righty John Schreiber will also have a spot, as should curveballing lefty Sam Long.
The Royals have a deep starting staff, so it’s possible that they’ll go with a six-man rotation to start the season; that would leave just two bullpen spots open for the likes of Angel Zerpa, Chris Stratton (who’s on a guaranteed contract but wasn’t good last year), Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, and the out-of-options Carlos Hernández, among others.
Dodgers Sign Kirby Yates for One Year, $13 Million
If you’re a fantasy player, your brain is probably spinning trying to figure out how Dave Roberts will dole out saves between Yates, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Evan Phillips. If you’re Roberts himself, you’re thrilled with the embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. This unit is so deep that, so long as everyone is healthy, there really aren’t any spots up for grabs to start the season; because Shohei Ohtani won’t be ready to pitch by then, the Dodgers can carry only 13 pitchers, with six of those slots reserved for starters. That leaves seven spots for the aforementioned five relief arms, plus Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda. Indeed, this roster crunch is already on display: To make room for Yates on the 40-man, the Dodgers designated Ryan Brasier for assignment.
Ben Clemens included Yates in his write-up of the Tanner Scott deal last week, when Yates to the Dodgers was first reported. You can read that piece here.
Tigers Sign Tommy Kahnle for One Year, $7.75 Million
Kahnle adds a veteran face to a ragtag Tigers bullpen that didn’t have a set closer for much of last year and probably won’t again. Like lefty Tyler Holton, Kahnle can get righties and lefties out thanks to his excellent changeup, and Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, and Will Vest should all factor into the late-inning mix as well. That leaves three spots and a host of relievers competing to fill them, including Sean Guenther and Brant Hurter, the unsung heroes of last year’s playoff run, Kenta Maeda, who could be boxed out of the rotation, and former closer Alex Lange.
Stanek’s re-signing gums up the works for a Mets bullpen that already doesn’t have a lot of flexibility. Edwin Díaz, A.J. Minter, José Buttó, and Stanek are locks to make the team, as is Griffin Canning if he’s not in the rotation. Assuming a six-man rotation is used to limit the innings of Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes, there could be just two bullpen spots left for a host of arms, including last year’s breakouts, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez, and three out-of-options relievers (Sean Reid-Foley, Dylan Covey, and Danny Young). Something will have to give, whether it’s a trade or two or simply waiting to see how spring training plays out and what injuries pop up.
While the Mariners certainly could’ve used more impactful offensive moves than just bringing Polanco back and adding Donovan Solano, their budget of around $15 million simply wasn’t going to allow for that.
There might be a little bit of room to squeeze another bat onto the roster without clearing someone else’s salary, but for now the infield looks more or less set. Polanco will start at third (not second, where he played last year), with J.P. Crawford at short, a combo of Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, and Solano at second, and the natural platoon pairing of Luke Raley and Solano at first.
Effect on Other Teams
The Astros were reportedly in on Polanco all offseason, and planned to move Jose Altuve to left field if they’d added him, which is also the plan if they bring Alex Bregman back to H-Town. All attention now turns back to Bregman and the Astros. The Astros want Bregman back, and there’s no reason to believe Bregman doesn’t want to be back. But at least from the outside, neither side seems any closer to budging.
Effect on Similar Players
The market for bounce-back infielders isn’t completely picked clean just yet. Yoán Moncada and Anthony Rizzo both had more injury-riddled seasons than Polanco, and Rizzo has struggled to produce ever since his concussion in late May of 2023. It stands to reason, then, that both will sign for less than Polanco, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising at this juncture if either or both of them have to settle for minor league deals.
Looking for a bounce back of his own, Hays is a nice fit for the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, but what this signing doesn’t do is settle the jumbled mess that is the Reds’ roster. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Hays was seeking “more regular” playing time after a tough season in a platoon role for the Orioles and Phillies that led to his non-tender. So it stands to reason that Hays will play against every lefty and plenty of righties. Hays is an outfielder who can play first base, but this team has so many hitters that it’s hard to tell where exactly he — and many of the others — will play.
Shortstop Elly De La Cruz, catcher Tyler Stephenson, and center fielder TJ Friedl are locked into regular playing time at a single position, but everyone else might be bouncing around. Hays, Jake Fraley, and the out-of-options Stuart Fairchild can play all three outfield positions; Spencer Steer can play all four corners as well as second base; Matt McLain put up 3.1 WAR as a middle infielder in 2023, but he missed all last season with a torn labrum and then got some outfield time in the Arizona Fall League last fall when he was finally healthy enough to return to the field; and Gavin Lux’s exact position is still to be determined. Oh, and there’s also Jeimer Candelario, who plays both corner infield spots, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and utilityman Santiago Espinal. New manager Terry Francona will have quite the evaluation on his hands come spring training.
Effect on Other Teams
Hays would’ve made sense for a lot of teams as a relatively young (he’ll be in his age-29 season) former All-Star, but not every team could have offered the playing time the Reds apparently did, not to mention the home ballpark. Teams looking for a lefty-mashing outfielder who can still hold his own against righties could turn to Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha. Teams could also target glove-first righty hitters such as Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor.
Effect on Similar Players
Grichuk had a far better season than Hays, so it stands to reason that he ought to do better than $5 million, even though he’s four years older and will probably mostly serve as the short side of a platoon. That’s because he’s essentially mastered that role; over the last four seasons, Grichuk has a 137 wRC+ against lefties. The Red Sox, Pirates, and Giants have all expressed interest, as shown in blue on the Matrix. Canha, a high-floor, low-ceiling corner outfielder and first baseman, and Bader should get around the $5 million salary that Hays earned, and Taylor may have to settle for a minor league deal after failing to make it through 2024 on the Pirates’ roster.
Díaz’s coming back into the fold should settle the Padres’ catching situation, even if he’s the only catcher assured of a spot. Díaz could be the starter, backup, or somewhere in between depending on who else makes the team. The three others in the mix are the former top prospect Luis Campusano, who was solid in a part-time role in 2023 before struggling on both sides of the ball last season, Brett Sullivan, who is out of options, and veteran Martín Maldonado, who is in camp on a minor league deal. Campusano and Sullivan are both on the 40-man roster.
That Díaz was released by the Rockies midseason and still earned $3.5 million bodes well for Grandal, who just put together a sneaky 1.4-WAR season. He could perhaps double the $2.5 million he signed with the Pirates last year, when he was coming off a two-season span in which he combined for -0.5 WAR.
Carlson’s deal is fully guaranteed but at a very modest price. In fact, this is now the cheapest free agent contract signed this offseason. (Congrats to Bryse Wilson for moving up to second cheapest!) That, combined with the fact that he can be optioned to the minors, means that Carlson is not assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster despite his major league contract.
As it stands, Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be Baltimore’s starting outfield, and DH/1B Ryan O’Hearn might get a little bit of playing time in the outfield corners as well. That leaves one or two reserve spots for Heston Kjerstad, the out-of-options Daz Cameron, and Carlson. Carlson’s switch-hitting and ability to play center field might give him an edge, but Cameron can play center as well. Spring training could be the deciding factor here. Plus, Carlson is coming off three straight years of what Davy Andrews in his write-up called “a spiral of injury and underperformance.” It’s possible that if Carlson, who is still only 26, is fully healthy for the first time since he finished third in the 2021 Rookie of the Year voting, he could be an excellent buy-low addition for the O’s. The most likely scenario appears to be that he starts the season in Triple-A and becomes a league-average depth piece in the outfield. There’s value in that, but it’s a far cry from what was expected of him during his days as a top prospect in the Cardinals system.
Effect on Other Teams
There was no guarantee that Carlson would get a major league deal after he put up an abysmal -1.0 WAR last season, and the other 29 teams still have plenty of internal and/or external options for reserve outfielders. This doesn’t have much if any impact outside of Baltimore.
Effect on Similar Players
Bench bats are a dime a dozen, but switch-hitters aren’t. Sam Haggerty and Robbie Grossman are still looking for jobs, but they’re both on the wrong side of 30 and will likely have to settle for minor league deals.
Trades
Cubs Acquire Ryan Pressly, $5.5 Million from the Astros
Pressly will be the Cubs’ first big-name closer since David Robertson was traded away in 2022, but his acquisition doesn’t necessarily mean they are out of the relief-pitching market. As shown on the Matrix in blue, they’ve expressed interest in a host of free agent arms, including old friend Robertson.
As things stand, Pressly, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, and Caleb Thielbar should all have set roles, leaving two bullpen spots still up for grabs if the Cubs decide to use a six-man rotation because of their glut of starting options. Some of those depth starters could also end up in the bullpen, though they wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cubs from signing multiple relievers if the right deal came about.
Where the Astros Go From Here
It’s natural for one’s brain to immediately react to the Astros’ dumping $8.5 million of Pressly’s salary as providing a lane for an Bregman reunion, but the timing of the trade might be more coincidence than prerequisite. As Chandler Rome reported, Houston had been trying to move Pressly for most of the offseason.
Pressly’s departure makes the bullpen an obvious area for the Astros to upgrade, though since the impetus of this trade was to save money, any additions the Astros make there would be more modest in nature. The emergences of Tayler Scott, Bryan King, and Kaleb Ort could help make up for the loss of Pressly.
Reds Acquire Taylor Rogers, $6 Million from the Giants
While the Giants were able to clear half of Rogers’ $12 million salary off the books, they’re ostensibly not going to reinvest that money into the bullpen or even another part of the roster. That, however, could just be posturing by president of baseball operations Buster Posey to maintain leverage in free agent talks; as mentioned in the relief pitching bonanza above, there are plenty of lefty arms looking for jobs, and the Giants could sign one and still run a lower payroll than they would’ve had with Rogers. Right now, Erik Miller is the only southpaw projected to be in the San Francisco bullpen.
Rumors of the Week
• The Padres offseason has been very quiet thus far — Díaz is the only free agent they’ve signed to a major league deal — but things could pick up a bit soon. According to Rosenthal, trades of either Dylan Cease or Michael King “remain in play” as the calendar hits February.
The Padres are trying to thread the needle of improving their rotation while also cutting payroll, which is why they desperately wanted to sign the cost-controlled Roki Sasaki. But now that Sasaki is a Dodger, trading away a starter might be the best way to add to their rotation. That sounds contradictory, but let me explain. The Padres could trade Cease and his $13.75 million salary or King, who on Friday agreed to a $4 million deal for 2025 that includes a $3.75 million buyout on a mutual option for 2026, and end up with two starters from trading one away: one coming back in the trade, and one signed with the cost savings. King’s new contract structure makes 2025 savings more negligible than if the entire $7.75 million applied to 2025, but that doesn’t mean the Padres wouldn’t trade him if the right offer came around.
For example (and these are entirely speculative teams and names), the Padres could trade one of their starters to the Orioles, Cubs, or Mets, with Dean Kremer, Javier Assad, or Tylor Megill coming back to San Diego in the trade. Then, with the savings, the Padres could sign a cheaper arm like Hart, Quintana, Gibson, or Lynn, among others. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that San Diego could “consider” Flaherty or Pivetta if it sends a starter packing, though as things stand, it seems like the Padres would have a difficult time fitting either of those guys into their budget.
• Speaking of Lynn, he might not even sign as a starter! Rosenthal dispatches that some teams are interested in the big righty as a late-inning reliever, and the veteran seems plenty open to the idea as a late-career pivot. His fastball-heavy approach could work even better when facing only a few hitters, and maybe he gains some velocity back after averaging 92.3 mph with his heater last season, his slowest since 2017. We currently project six bullpens at under 2 WAR (for comparison, the Twins lead the majors with a 5.2-WAR projection): the Angels, Marlins, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox.
I’m a big fan of Tommy Kahnle for reasons that don’t have that much to do with why the Tigers just signed him to a $7.75 million contract this week. Kahnle flatters the stereotype that most of a baseball team’s personality resides in its bullpen. I can offer two succinct anecdotes in support of the idea that Kahnle is someone your grandmother might euphemistically have referred to as “a character.”
The first: His torrid but fickle relationship with the Philadelphia Eagles. (Go Birds.) Kahnle has been on and offthe Eagles bandwagonand back on again over the course of his career. Kahnle put the Birds in timeout in 2020 over their firing of Doug Pederson, which — far from being a sign of disloyalty — is actually precisely the kind of ferocious idiosyncrasy that makes Eagles fans the kind of people you don’t let yourself get trapped in a 1-on-1 conversation with. (Take it from me, I’ll talk your ear off about how I thought Macho Harris was the next Brian Dawkins.)
The other endearingly weird thing about Kahnle is how much he loves to throw his changeup. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hello from Tempe, where the air is filled with the never-ending drone of leaf blowers.
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna start chat off on a somewhat confrontational note.
12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: There are (more this week than usual) lots of questions in my queue asking me to comment on other peoples’ work or opinions. Here are some examples:
12:03
Simpson: Why is Chandler Simpson (Tampa) not getting any love. The guy’s a 70 hitter with 80 speed—and he’s not on the top 100 anywhere. What am I missing about him?
12:03
Johnny: who are some prospects you are higher and lower on consensus in the bluejays system
12:04
Accudart: Dodger Ferris projections are quite varied…is his ceiling only sp3 or do you feel more .thanks
Zach Dezenzo could play an important role for the Astros this year. The 24-year-old projects to be a “viable third baseman,” as Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice wrote in Dezenzo’s prospect report in June, but depending on how Houston’s roster comes together — an Alex Bregman return remains a possibility — Dezenzo could also be used in left field. Indeed, at Astros FanFest on Saturday, manager Joe Espada said Dezenzo will get a lot of reps in left field during spring training.
Regardless of where he is stationed defensively, extra-base oomph will be the righty-hitting Dezenzo’s calling card. A 12th-round pick in 2022 out of Ohio State University, Dezenzo has 70-grade raw power that he is still learning to tap into in games (55 FV game power), according to our prospect team. Last season, he posted a 131 wRC+ between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Sugar Land. He made his big league debut in early August and was optioned a month later before getting called up again just before the end of the regular season. During his 19 major league games, he went deep twice while slashing .242/.277/.371 (84 wRC+) over 65 plate appearances.
Dezenzo discussed his development as a hitter when the Astros visited Fenway Park in August.
———
David Laurila: You didn’t get drafted your junior year, despite solid numbers [including a .933 OPS]. Why was that?
Zach Dezenzo: “Good question. I put together a pretty strong freshman season at Ohio State [in 2019] — freshman All-American honors — then the COVID season obviously got cut short. My junior year, I hit .302 with nine home runs, although we only played 42 games. I knew I was good, but I’m not sure that I did enough to raise many scouts’ attention. That’s probably kind of where I was at, needing one more year to show what I was truly capable of. But that’s OK. It all worked out perfectly fine.”
Laurila: You must have drawn some attention as a junior…
Dezenzo: “I did have some. The Astros were actually interested — they were probably the number one team in contact with me — so yes, there was definitely interest. It just didn’t pan out the way I wanted it to.”
Laurila: Jumping to your hitting profile, how does it now compare to when you signed? Are you mostly the same guy in the box? Read the rest of this entry »
Ketel Marte was one of the best 10 hitters in baseball in 2024. That’s just an objective fact – or at least as objective as facts can get in baseball. Our calculation of WAR? He was 10th among hitters. Baseball Reference has him 10th as well. Baseball Prospectus put him in seventh place. That’s not surprising; he set career highs in home runs, league-adjusted OBP and slugging, and wRC+. He played solid defense and even added a little value on the basepaths.
He was one of the best 10 hitters in baseball in 2019, too. In fact, he’s the only player to crack the top 10 in both 2019 and 2024. That’s wild. Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, José Ramírez – they all played in both years. None of them – none! – managed the double that Marte did. This isn’t some weird defensive value issue, either: He’s the only hitter with a top-10 wRC+ in both years.
Those in between years? Don’t look too closely. Marte totaled 9.1 WAR across the 2020-2023 campaigns. He posted 6.3 WAR in each of 2019 and 2024. In that 2020-2023 span, he was 64th among hitters in total WAR. He had two seasons of roughly average offensive production in that span, and produced at a 3 WAR/600 pace instead of the 6.3 WAR/600 pace from 2019 and 2024. So it’s safe to say he’s streaky – one hitter some years, and a different guy other years. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s been a quiet winter in the AL Central. After Michael Wacha signed an extension at the beginning of the offseason, the division’s five teams combined to add only one deal worth more than $20 million in guaranteed money; that was Shane Bieber’s surgery-affected pillow contract with the Guardians. Now, finally, we can add another to the ledger, courtesy of the Royals. On Wednesday, they signed Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $22.2 million deal with a club option tacked on the end, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported.
The Royals came into the winter looking for relief help. It’s not the only place their roster needed a glow-up – even after trading for Jonathan India, they could still use another bat or two, especially in the corner outfield – but the bullpen was also a particular area of need. Last year’s Royals made the playoffs on the back of pitching, but their starters were the ones doing the heavy lifting, not their relievers. Deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg was the best of the group by a large margin, and John Schreiber was the only other reliever with impressive full-season numbers.
It’s not so much that a team can’t make the playoffs with such a thin bullpen – obviously, the Royals did. But they did it by the skin of their teeth at 86-76, and that despite spectacular seasons from Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Wacha. Counting on those three to combine for 94 starts, 12.9 WAR, and ERAs in the low 3.00s across the board again would be wishful thinking. Additionally, they no longer have last year’s fourth starter Brady Singer, who was Cincinnati’s return in the India trade.
The 2024 bullpen finished last in baseball in shutdowns – appearances that increased win probability by six percentage points or more – and fifth worst in win probability added. Those are outcome statistics, not process ones, but the process statistics weren’t exactly pretty either. Kansas City was middle of the pack in WAR (3.6), 20th in ERA (4.13), 26th in K-BB% (12.0%). It’s not just that this team didn’t have a “true closer” – its bullpen was light on contributors from top to bottom. Read the rest of this entry »
