During the last few days of spring training, most teams are wrapping up position battles and preparing for Opening Day. The Angels, meanwhile, decided the waning days of March were a great time to revamp their bullpen. On Sunday, they signed Noé Ramirez to a minor league deal. Then on Monday, they acquired James Hoyt from the Marlins for cash considerations and signed Steve Cishek and Tony Watson to matching one-year, $1 million deals. Save Hoyt, all these pitchers were available because they had already been cut from other team’s rosters. That’s not a promising way to build a bullpen, but the Angels, who desperately need additional depth on their staff, didn’t have much of a choice.

Bolstering the relief corps was a priority for new Angels GM Perry Minasian, and he made a handful of moves in the winter to do so. In December, he acquired new closer Raisel Iglesias from the Reds in exchange for Ramirez and a player to be named later. Ramirez ended up getting cut by the Reds, and the Angels scooped him up again, effectively acquiring Iglesias for free. The team also added Alex Claudio and Junior Guerra via free agency, but even with those three new relievers, Los Angeles still lacked depth in the middle of their bullpen. The projected relief corps before this week included control artist Aaron Slegers, the raw but promising Chris Rodriguez, and veteran Jesse Chavez to hold the line during the middle third of the game. Conspicuously absent from that group is Ty Buttrey, who was a solid option out of the bullpen in 2018 and ‘19 but greatly disappointed last year. He was optioned to minor league camp last week. Felix Peña will likely be counted on for some high-leverage work as well, but he strained his hamstring this spring and will start the year on the Injured List.

With Hoyt, Ramirez, Watson and Cishek on board, here’s what Los Angeles’ bullpen now looks like:

Adding so many relievers has definitely increased the depth, but the flexibility isn’t all that improved. The first seven names on that list are either out of minor league options or good enough to hold a roster spot for the entire season. If the Angels carry eight relievers on their 26-man roster, that means the final bullpen spot will be a rotating door for whichever reliever is the freshest.

Of the four relievers added this week, Hoyt has the most interesting projection. He broke into the majors in 2016 with Houston and won a championship there the next year, though he was left off the postseason roster. He was traded to Cleveland mid-way through 2018 and spent what was left of that year as well as the majority of ’19 in Triple-A, logging just 8.1 innings in the majors that season.

When the Marlins faced a team-wide COVID outbreak at the start of last year, they acquired Hoyt for cash considerations to help fill out the bullpen. He enjoyed the best season of his short career in Miami, striking out over 30% of the batters he faced despite a huge drop in velocity across all four of his pitches. To combat that, he started throwing his slider more than two-thirds of the time. With a whiff rate over 40%, that pitch formed the foundation of his success.

Hoyt’s velocity hasn’t returned this spring: His fastball is topping out under 90 mph, and his slider is coming in around 80 mph. But if he maintains his approach from last year, he’s shown that his slider is good enough to thrive without elite velocity. The other important thing he possesses is a minor league option. The Angels’ bullpen has a lot less flexibility to call up fresh arms when the attrition of a full season starts to hit. Since Hoyt is one of the few relievers with an option still available, he’ll probably ride the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors regularly this season.

In Cishek and Watson, the Angels add two relievers with plenty of high-leverage experience and funk. Cishek scuffled through his worst season in the majors in the White Sox’ bullpen last year. The frisbee slider he whips in from an extremely low release point was as good as ever, but his sinker was crushed. In the past, he had relied on that pitch to maintain his above-average ground ball rate, but opposing batters elevated and celebrated against it in 2020. At this point, he’s best cast as a right-handed specialist so he can use his slider as much as he needs to. Facing too many left-handed bats will leave him exposed, especially now that his sinker is barely crossing 90 mph regularly.

Watson’s career arc closely mirrors Cishek’s. He was a solid high-leverage option for the Pirates, Dodgers, and Giants for a number of years, but the quality of his stuff has deteriorated recently. The 2019 season was his nadir — a 4.17 ERA, 4.81 FIP, and -0.2 WAR in 54 innings — though last year represented a small bounce back. And like Hoyt and Cishek, he had to learn how to survive with diminished velocity: He saw a three mile per hour drop across his entire repertoire, though his strikeout rate did jump up three points from ’19.

Watson’s extreme release point nearly matches that of fellow lefty sidearmer Claudio. But where the latter has historically struggled with a significant platoon split, the former’s has been much less dramatic. In 2020, that handedness split was mitigated even further as Watson increased the usage of his changeup to 45%, making it his primary pitch. But like Hoyt, his velocity failed to show up this spring, and he opted out of his minor league deal with the Phillies, who had signed him over the winter.

With Cishek and Watson now in the fold, the Angels’ bullpen has another pair of sidearming relievers to pair with Claudio. It brings to mind the multi-faceted bullpen the Rays put together last season, where nearly every reliever threw from a different arm slot. The Angels aren’t as extreme as the Rays were, but they have a couple of different looks they can trot out to throw off the opposing team.

The velocity issues each of these pitchers are dealing with certainly doesn’t inspire confidence. But when you’re bringing in relievers off the scrap heap, there isn’t much you can do about warts like that. Hoyt, Cishek, and Watson have all shown a willingness to adapt their approach and have had some success with their diminished repertoires. Luckily, the Angels aren’t counting on them to handle critical innings for them — only to provide a competent bridge to the back end of the bullpen.

Four years ago, the Rangers viewed Rougned Odor as a foundational piece, signing him to a six-year, $49.5 million extension. By the time he arrived at spring training this year, he’d lost his starting second base job, the result of a string of bad seasons and adjustments that simply hadn’t taken. The 27-year-old instead competed for the third base job, but on Monday, the team — which is in the midst of a multiyear rebuild after going 22–38 last season — told him and the rest of the baseball world that he would not make their Opening Day roster and will be designated for assignment, effectively ending a 10-year run with the organization that signed him out of Venezuela in 2011.

Odor hit just .167/.209/.413 with 10 homers — but just nine singles — in 148 PA last year; his .157 BABIP was the majors’ third-lowest mark among hitters with at least 120 PA. His 60 wRC+ wasn’t a career low, but it was the third year out of the past four that he was below 80, and his -0.3 WAR marked his second season in that span that he was below replacement level, though his 0.3 WAR in 581 PA in 2019 was hardly more acceptable. His 1.6 WAR while playing second is the lowest among the 19 players who have received at least 1,000 PA at the position over the past four seasons.

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In January, we at FanGraphs put out a call for radio broadcast ratings. The votes are now all in, and over the following days, we’ll be releasing a compilation of those rankings, as well as selected commentary from each team’s responses.

As a refresher, our survey asked for scores in four areas. If you’d like a thorough explanation of them, you can read the introductory article, but I’ll also recap them briefly here before starting off with the bottom third of the league.

The “Analysis” score covers the frequency and quality of a broadcast team’s discussion of baseball. This isn’t limited to statistical analysis, and many of the booths that scored best excelled at explaining technical details of playing. This score represents how much listeners feel they learn about baseball by listening.

“Charisma” covers the amount of enjoyment voters derive from listening to the broadcasters fill space, which takes on many forms. The booths that scored best on charisma varied wildly, from former players recounting stories of their glory days to unintentional comedy and playful banter between long-term broadcast partners. Read the rest of this entry »

Addressing one of his pitchers in a mid-month Zoom session, Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black said that his velocity was “good for this point of the spring.” (That may not be an exact quote, but it’s close.) The statement prompted me to ask a question that elicited an expansive response. In a nutshell, I wanted to know how often Black is seeing guys who, having trained for velocity over the offseason, come into camp already throwing gas. Moreover, does he find that concerning?

“I could get longwinded here,” Black began. “As you can imagine, when we talk about velocity and what pitchers have done, really over the last five years… maybe it started about 10 years ago with programs to truly increase velocity. We’ve seen that over the years, with many pitchers pumping their velocity.

“Coming into camp, I think there are certain pitchers, on certain clubs, that are trying to make the team. They have to show their stuff right away, from Day One, whether it’s in bullpens, batting-practice games, or B-games, trying to impress coaching staffs [and] front offices of their ability. They want to show that they can make a big-league roster. Other guys have trained in the offseason, and they want to see if those training methods have resulted in increased velocity in games. They might turn it loose right from the get-go. Read the rest of this entry »

Alderson Broaddus University carries an enrollment of fewer than 1,000 undergraduate students and sits in a town — Philippi, West Virginia — with a population just under 3,000 people. Its baseball team plays in the NCAA’s Division II and has produced just two players who were drafted by MLB teams, neither of whom ever actually played in the big leagues. In fact, Alderson Broaddus had never claimed a single major leaguer before Randy Dobnak was called up by the Twins in 2019. Two years before that, he had been playing in a four-team independent league in Michigan, assuming he’d give up baseball for good at the end of the season. After he got to the minors, he drove for rideshare services to make extra money. Even after his first full season in the Twins’ rotation, the team went out and signed two starting pitchers and bumped him to the bullpen. Dobnak’s baseball career has been non-stop uncertainty.

On Sunday, that finally came to an end, as the 26-year-old righty signed a five-year contract extension worth $9.25 million guaranteed and with a potential value of $29.75 million over eight years, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal offers Minnesota a good deal of flexibility and grants the pitcher a nice guarantee a couple of years before arbitration would have.

Right-hander Randy Dobnak and the Minnesota Twins are in agreement on a five-year, $9.25 million contract extension with three club options, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. The deal can max out at $29.75 million with the options and can grow with escalators.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 28, 2021

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided more details Monday morning.

The breakdown of pitcher/former Uber driver/Randy Dobnak's 5-year, $9.25M contract with the #Twins:
2021: $700,000
2022: $800,000
2023: $1.5M
2024: $2.25M
2025: $3M
2026: $6M Club option or $1M buyout
2027: $7M club option or $100K buyout
2028: $8.5M club option or $100K buyout

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 29, 2021

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Positional versatility has become increasingly important now that teams are carrying 13 or 14 pitchers on their rosters. That leaves benches bereft of depth, meaning that an ability to move around the diamond makes a player especially valuable — if not essential. One-dimensional non-regulars are marginal assets unless they excel in a specific area.

In the opinion of A.J. Hinch, the term “utility player” is anything but a pejorative. Moreover, everyday players who display versatility make a manager’s job easier.

“I don’t want “utility” to be explained as a negative thing,” the Tigers’ skipper told reporters recently. “A utility player has traditionally been defined as a guy who can’t play every day. And that’s not true. Some guys it is, some guys it isn’t. I caution everybody that it’s not a slight.

“When you have an everyday guy that is elite at that position, absolutely, you’re going to leave him at that position,” continued Hinch, who circled back to his Astros days and cited Alex Bregman having played short when Carlos Correa was hurt. “That’s a multiple position for an elite player.”

Hinch’s Detroit team clearly lacks the top-end talent that he had at his disposal during his Houston tenure, which suggests mixing-and-matching might be common in Motown this summer. If spring training is any indication, it might even be the M.O. Hinch has done no shortage of shuffling, and come the regular season, the likes of Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, Jonathan Schoop, and Harold Castro will be utilized as moving pieces in hopes of optimizing the lineup. Ditto Isaac Paredes, once he’s called up from the alternate site. Read the rest of this entry »

Rick Porcello’s time with the Mets in 2020 began by allowing seven runs in two innings to the Braves. A normal season would have offered him many more starts to help his numbers recover from that performance, but as it was, he took to the mound just 11 more times. So despite giving up two runs or fewer in five of his remaining appearances, his ERA for the season landed at an unsightly 5.64 — the second straight year in which it finished above 5.50.

With that in mind, it isn’t a huge surprise that Porcello, 32, is still unemployed one week before the regular season begins. Throughout his 12-year career, his value rests more on the quantity of his innings than the quality — over 2,000 in total now, and a pre-2020 average of 185 a year. It makes sense that teams would want to be cautious if his skills seem to be deteriorating. I’m not convinced that’s the case. The Porcello of last season bore a lot of resemblance to the Porcello of years before, including the one when he won a Cy Young award. He’s still deserving of a big league job. Let’s find him one.

It’s hard to assess how good or bad Porcello actually was last year. His ERA was the worst of his career, but his 3.33 FIP was his best. At 1.7 WAR, he was just inside of our top 25 pitchers in baseball, tied with Sonny Gray. Mets fans likely thought of him as a disaster, but he actually would have been the most valuable pitcher on 14 different teams.

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Between the fireworks shows put on by 21-year-olds Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr., and the big numbers put up by teammates Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuña Jr. didn’t command as much attention as his talents merited last year. A two-week stay on the injured list didn’t help, particularly when it came to posting eye-opening counting stats. Even so, and even in abbreviated form, Acuña turned in his third straight stellar campaign. As he heads into his age-23 season, his place among the game’s elite shouldn’t be ignored.

Acuña entered the 2020 season on a high note, following up his 2018 NL Rookie of the Year campaign with his first as an All-Star. Playing in 156 games in 2019, he hit .280/.365/.518 (126 wRC+), bashed 41 homers and stole a league-high 37 bases in 46 attempts; three more steals, and he would have joined Barry Bonds, Jose Canseco, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano as the only members of the 40–40 club. Back in the Baseball Abstract days, Bill James introduced a simple stat called Power-Speed number, which takes the harmonic mean of a player’s home run and stolen base totals. Acuña’s 2019 season is tied for 16th overall, and sixth among players 25 or under:

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The week before the regular season begins is usually extension season, as teams and players scramble to complete deals before the day-to-day rigors of playing baseball for six straight months get in the way of discussions. While this year hasn’t seen many extensions so far, it hasn’t seen none; on Wednesday, the Astros signed Lance McCullers Jr. to a five-year, $85 million extension, as FOX 26’s Mark Berman first reported.

McCullers would have reached free agency after this year; all five years of his extension would have been free-agent years, which makes comparisons easier. This deal is essentially a pre-agreement to a free-agent contract, with none of that squirrely nonsense of buying out arbitration years or extra team options on the end. Five years and $85 million, simple as that.

How does that rate look next to comparable free agents? For once, I’m stumped. The pandemic-shortened season, and teams’ subsequent financial retrenching, makes using past years as a guidepost a poor idea. Madison Bumgarner, for example, signed a five-year, $85 million deal — the exact terms! — but did so before the world changed. This offseason, no comparable pitchers hit the market; the only pitcher who signed a multi-year deal with an average annual value above $10 million was Trevor Bauer, and that’s not a useful comp here either.

You could, if you were so inclined, use Dan Szymborski’s research from last week that estimated the cost of one WAR in future years. The estimate has wide error bands, because it’s based only on multi-year contracts signed this offseason, but it looks like so:

With that in hand, we next need to estimate how good McCullers will be in the relevant 2022–26 timeframe. Luckily, ZiPS has us covered there as well:

With the projection in tow and a cost per WAR (I added $250,000 per year after the years in the table), we can just do the math. That’s a 9.3 WAR projection overall, and after applying the relevant yearly multipliers, the projections would suggest a $75 million contract. That implies the Astros overpaid, but take a gander at those innings projections. McCullers’ past injury history leads ZiPS to a pessimistic playing time assumption. An extra 15 innings per year would move the deal up to fair value. So would four seasons of 150-inning production and a single missed season. In other words, it comes in pretty close to what we’d expect after accounting for his skill and risk factors.

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The Detroit Tigers have a number of promising young pitchers, as well as a handful of veteran arms who retain upside. The bulk of them will have to thrive if the club hopes to compete in the AL Central anytime soon. But while there’s little doubt that Detroit’s rebuild is moving steadily in the right direction, the franchise’s fortunes will largely be determined by how soon and to what extent the pitching staff blossoms. Now under the watchful eye of Chris Fetter, Tigers pitchers head into the 2021 season with a plethora of potential, but also no shortage of question marks.

Here are conversational snapshots from, and about, six Detroit hurlers.

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Tyler Alexander has the most-varied mix on the Tigers’ staff. The 26-year-old left-hander has five pitches in his arsenal, and last season he threw each of them between 103 and 140 times (per Statcast). His second-most-frequent offering was a slider that yielded middling-at-best results. Despite an improved movement profile and a 31% whiff rate, opposing hitters logged a .333 batting average and a .606 slugging percentage when they put the pitch in play.

I mentioned that lack of success to Alexander, pointing out that he got, on average, nine more inches of drop, and slightly more horizontal, compared to the previous year. Why the lack of results?

“Well, I throw good sliders and I throw bad sliders,” was his reasoned response. “And I would assume the bad ones got hit. You know, I’ve worked a lot on that pitch. I’ve worked really hard on on finding the consistency with it. For instance, I thought I was really good yesterday. The outing before that, I thought it was terrible. It’s a feel pitch for me, and I’m slowly starting to get there. I’ve had issues getting it down in the zone; I’ve had issues getting it backdoor. In every interview I’ve ever had, I’ve said, ‘I’m working on my slider, I’m working on my slider.’ I’m always going to be working on it. Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad.” Read the rest of this entry »