With trades for Manny Machado and Brian Dozier, the Dodgers did more to improve their playoff odds in the weeks before the July 31 trade deadline than any other NL team, at least according to the projections of Dan Szymborski. However, they didn’t do a whole lot to address one area of glaring need, namely their bullpen, instead choosing to rely upon their internal depth despite a host of injuries. After the past four days in Denver, that looks as though it might have been a serious mistake.

In a four-game series at Coors Field that began on Thursday night, the Dodgers (64-55) lost “only” three games to the Rockies (63-55), but all of them came in the late innings, the last two via walk-offs. For as critical as these intradivision contests between contenders are, the team also endured an even more important and unsettling loss, that of closer Kenley Jansen. After Thursday night’s 8-5 victory, which was closed out by Scott Alexander instead of Jansen, manager Dave Roberts told reporters that the latter had been hospitalized before the game due to an irregular heartbeat then sent back to Los Angeles to undergo tests. He was also placed on the 10-day disabled list. The Dodgers subsequently reported that Jansen’s condition had stabilized, that his issues are considered manageable, and that he will have a follow-up appointment with a cardiologist on August 20, the day before he is eligible to return from the DL. Beyond that, the prognosis is unclear; if the 30-year-old righty is put on blood thinners, he could be out four-to-six weeks.

This is the third time during Jansen’s nine-year major league career that he’s experienced an irregular heartbeat. He missed four weeks in 2011 and three weeks in 2012 with a similar problem; the second episode also occurred in Denver. After the latter season, he underwent cardiac ablation surgery to correct the problem. He also had an incident of high blood pressure while in Denver for a 2015 game, but he returned to action a few days later.

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Thirty-four days. That’s enough time, for some among us, to bike from the Atlantic to the Pacific and back — twice. It’s enough time to build a 57-story skyscraper, then build two-thirds of it again. It’s nearly enough time to write a first draft of The Sun Also Rises, apparently. (I’m cheating a little bit here: Hemingway started the book on July 21 and finished it in early September, but still… what the heck?) And it’s time enough to create the universe four times over, if you’re the Supreme Being whose exploits are documented in the Book of Genesis. Oh — and if you’re David Bote, a 25-year-old infielder for the Chicago Cubs — it’s enough time to author a breakout season.

You may recognize Bote from what he did Sunday night to the Washington Nationals, live and on national television:

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In this week’s typically fantastic Sunday Notes column (if you don’t read them, you should), David Laurila passed along this tidbit which caught my eye:

Red Sox centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. was charged with an error on Friday night when he failed a handle a ball that, per StatCast, had a 6% catch probability. Bradley ran 60 feet in 4.2 seconds before having the ball carom off his glove.

That was backed up by David Adler.

Here’s the play in question:

Well, that doesn’t seem quite fair. But it’s becoming an increasing issue amongst official scorers and those who call for elimination of the error as a statistic altogether. Chris Hine, of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote a great piece earlier this summer on different scorers’ approach to using Statcast: how much should Statcast data factor into the hit-vs.-error calculus? And do the Rules allow it?

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Niko Goodrum has been a find for the Tigers. His 232/.297/.435 slash line is admittedly ho-hum, but he’s providing plenty of value with his versatility and verve. Reminiscent of Tony Phillips, the 26-year-old former Twins prospect has started games at six positions. In his first Motor City season, he’s served as both a spark plug and a Swiss Army Knife.

He came to Detroit on the cheap. After toiling for eight years in the Minnesota system, Goodrum arrived as minor league free agent with just 18 MLB plate appearances under his belt. He’s more than earning his league-minimum money. While the aforementioned offensive numbers are pedestrian, the switch-hitter has driven his fair share of baseballs up gaps. His 24 doubles and 12 home runs rank third on the team, and he’s legged out two triples to boot.

Goodrum recognizes that his ability to play all over the field is a major reason he’s getting an opportunity with the rebuilding Tabbies. Another is that he’s finally found himself.

“I’m not searching anymore,” Goodrum told me. “I think that when you’re trying to find your identity of who you are, including what type of hitter you are, the game is a lot harder. When you believe in the things that are in you, your ability will start to show.”

Goodrum feels that corner was turned two years ago. Read the rest of this entry »

In 1906, the Chicago Cubs won 116 games against just 36 losses, becoming the only MLB team ever to win at least three-quarters of its games. Nearly 100 years later, in 2001, the Seattle Mariners equaled the Cubs’ win total but (because of the 162-game schedule) also posted 10 more losses. With their own loss last night, the 81-35 Boston Red Sox are currently on pace for 113 wins. While that total would not be a record, it would still represent the fourth-highest total in history — behind the aforementioned Cubs and Mariners in addition to the 1998 Yankees — and puts them within striking distance of the record.

In order to tie the record, Boston would need to finish the season on a 35-11 tear, a .761 winning percentage. That is, admittedly, a long shot. Consider, for context, that the Red Sox started the season by winning 17 of their first 20 games and still didn’t win their 35th of the year until after they had put up 16 losses. From May 24 through July 12, the team went 32-14 and, in an overlapping stretch from June 14 through Wednesday’s 10-5 win over the Blue Jays, the team went 34-12. In fact, backing up the recent run to June 11, the club went 37-12, a .755 winning percentage nearly identical to how they would need to finish the season and tie the win record.

While the Red Sox are incredibly talented, our projections don’t quite see a record as a realistic possibility, pegging Boston for a 108-win season. By going to our win-distribution graphs, we can get a better understanding of the team’s odds. What we see below are the win distributions for the AL East.

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Once upon a time, 12 teams and 15 years ago, Edwin Jackson was a Dodgers phenom who outdueled Randy Johnson in a major-league debut that happened to fall on his 20th birthday. Six trades, one All-Star appearance, one no-hitter, and several free-agency signings — some lucrative, some humbling — later, he’s the co-holder of a record for colorful laundry. Forget the “E Jax” nickname, the 34-year-old righty should be known as “Transaction Jackson.” Suddenly, he’s come back from the brink of professional oblivion to pitching as well as he has in half a decade with a performance that has not only helped the upstart A’s take possession of the second AL Wild Card spot, but has almost exactly coincided with their surge past the Mariners.

Jackson, who tied Octavio Dotel’s major-league record of 13 teams played for when he donned the green and gold for the first time, has been on quite an odyssey since that 2003 debut. He’s been traded in deals involving Danys Baez and Lance Carter (from the Dodgers to the Devil Rays in 2006), Matt Joyce (from the Rays to the Tigers in 2008), Curtis Granderson, Max Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy (from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks in a three-way, seven-player deal in 2009), Daniel Hudson (from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox in 2010), Mark Teahen and Jason Frasor (from the White Sox to the Blue Jays in 2011), and Dotel, Corey Patterson, Marc Rzepczynski, and Colby Rasmus (from the Blue Jays to the Cardinals on that same July 27, 2011 day, without even getting to suit up for Toronto). In his first taste of free agency, he signed a one-year, $11 million deal with the Nationals in February 2012. In his next one, he signed a four-year, $52 million deal with the Cubs in December 2012 — the first big free-agent deal of the Theo Epstein regime — but after a so-so first season (8-18, 4.98 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 2.0 WAR), his performance deteriorated to the point that in mid-2015, having delivered just an additional 0.8 WAR and converted to a relief role, he was released with $15.63 million remaining on his contract.

It’s at that point, on July 27, 2015, where this particular journeyman’s journey through the majors reached the lightning round; since then, Jackson has pitched for the Braves (2015), Marlins and Padres (2016), Orioles and Nationals again (2017). Over that three-season, six-team span (including his final months with the Cubs), he threw 215.2 innings with a 4.92 ERA, 5.24 FIP and -0.6 WAR, the last mark the second-lowest total of any of the 204 pitchers with at least 200 innings in that span. In his three starts for the Orioles and 13 for the Nationals last year, Jackson pitched to a 5.21 ERA and a career-worst 6.14 FIP in 76 innings, “good” for -0.3 WAR.

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When the Boston Red Sox acquired Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays prior to last month’s trade deadline, they brought on board a righty who no longer relies almost exclusively on velocity. Eovaldi still throws heat — his four-seamer averages a tick over 97 mph and approaches 100 — but another pitch has become every bit as important to his arsenal. The 28-year-old flamethrower is relying heavily on a cutter, and it didn’t come out of nowhere. He essentially took it out of his back pocket.

The fact that he’s thrown a cut fastball over 30% of the time this season is less surprising if you know the story behind it. Eovaldi, who goes into tonight’s start against the Baltimore Orioles with a 3.38 ERA and an 18-inning scoreless streak, shared that story prior to a recent game.

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Nathan Eovaldi: “The first time I actually started throwing a cutter was in 2012, when I was with the Dodgers. I was getting hit around a lot, and it became one of those times where you’re like, ‘Alright, let’s try messing around with a couple different pitches.’ My pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt, suggested a cut fastball. He showed me the grip, I threw it, and it cut.

“Pitches that are similar to my fastball — I don’t have to do a lot to them — are just a little easier for me to throw. I have confidence with my cutter. I’m throwing it hard, so even if I miss, it’s still going to be like a hard fastball. Do you know what I mean? My velocity kicks in. Right now there’s about four or five mph [of separation] from my four-seamer, so it’s still a hard enough pitch. It’s not like if I throw a changeup and it’s 86-88, hovering up there like a BP fastball.

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If you haven’t heard, Freddie Freeman is good at baseball. He’s currently second among first basemen by WAR and wRC+, behind only Matt Carpenter in each case. Since 2016, he’s recorded a 150 wRC+, good for sixth-best in baseball over that span. Nor is his more recent success unprecedented. Freeman ranks 29th in career WAR for active hitters, with only five players having produced a greater WAR figure than him (30.0) in fewer plate appearances (4,793): Josh Donaldson (35.6 and 3,757), Paul Goldschmidt (34.8 and 4,521), Mike Trout (62.6 and 4,547), Giancarlo Stanton (37.7 and 4,613), and Buster Posey (39.1 and 4,658). (All numbers current as of Wednesday.)

This news isn’t exactly earth-shattering for anyone who frequents the pages of FanGraphs. We have known this since Freeman’s breakout season in 2013. Despite that, however, it seems like there’s an increase in Freddie Freeman appreciation recently. Some of this is likely due to the fact that the Braves are — somewhat unexpectedly — fighting for a playoff spot. The Home Run Derby also helped his nationwide notability, even if he didn’t perform particularly well. Google seems to confirm the newfound recognition, as Freddie Freeman searches are up notably the past two years.

As noted, though, Freeman has been an extraordinary talent for a while now. He hits for average and power, is a good fielder (he ranks third in UZR for first basemen since 2013), and is a good runner for a first baseman (fourth-most baserunning runs since 2015). However, to add to all these skills, there is one thing that Freeman does better than anyone else in baseball, and it’s this one thing that helps put him in position to succeed.

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Javier Baez has been one of the best and most valuable players in the National League. He’s already set career highs in doubles, triples, homers, and — most importantly — WAR, and the Cubs wouldn’t be where they are without him. At the same time, Baez has drawn a total of 17 walks, and seven of those have been intentional. He’s got 105 strikeouts. He’s swung at literally almost half of all pitches thrown out of the strike zone.

I can’t sit here and tell you whether this approach is sustainable. I mean, I suppose the approach is sustainable, but I don’t know if it can keep on leading to these same results. It’s difficult to say because we’ve barely seen any hitters like this before. It feels like Baez couldn’t possibly sustain this, but it feels just as strongly like Baez has broken out. Like he’s figured out how to best channel his aggressiveness.

What you won’t find here, then, is a conclusion. I don’t know what Javier Baez *is*. I don’t know if he’s a 100 wRC+ kind of hitter, or if he’s a 140 wRC+ kind of hitter. But I had a realization the other day, and I wanted to share some observations with you. When Baez first arrived in the majors, he was known for his Gary Sheffield-like bat speed. The question was whether he’d make enough contact, and lay off enough balls. It stood to reason that, if Baez was going to succeed, he’d have to make himself more selective. That isn’t what’s happened. Baez has leaned into his own aggressiveness, if you will. He’s hitting better than he ever has. He’s swinging more often than he ever has. Baez has become ready to hit every pitch. I’d like to show you some supporting information.

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Outside of the salaries and facilities and attendance and everything, there are two significant differences between the minors and the majors. One big difference is that the players in the majors are a whole lot better. There’s a stark difference in the quality of gameplay. Another big difference is that the players in the majors are first and foremost trying to win. In the minors, players get to be more selfish; they have to be more selfish, because the goal is to draw attention and get promoted. The minors are all about player development, because no one goes into baseball with the dream of topping out in Double-A. Players want to be as good as they can be. If their team wins more than it loses, all the better, but that’s a secondary concern.

So consider the hidden-ball trick. There’s less incentive to try it in the minors, because the idea is to get a cheap out, and, in the minors, players don’t care so much about cheap outs. If anything, a well-executed hidden-ball trick robs the pitcher of a development opportunity. At the same time, there’s more incentive to try it in the minors, because it’s clever and delightful, and you have to pass the time somehow. The stakes are lower, and trick plays are fun to be a part of. This season, the Rochester Red Wings have pulled off the hidden-ball trick two times.

The most recent occasion was made possible by Willians Astudillo. By the terms of my contract with FanGraphs, I can’t allow this to pass without it being remarked upon. So let’s review what happened to the poor, unsuspecting Dawel Lugo.

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