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Riley Pint has a golden arm and a sky-high ceiling. The 20-year-old right-hander reaches triple digits, which helped prompt the Colorado Rockies to take him fourth overall in the 2016 draft. He’s the best pitching prospect in the system and a potential big-league ace.

The numbers don’t reflect that. Since signing out of an Overland Park, Kansas, high school, Pint is 3-16 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. This past season, he walked 59 batters in 93 innings at Low-A Asheville. To say he’s a work in progress would qualify as an understatement.

Are the Rockies concerned? I asked Zach Wilson, the club’s director of player development, for his appraisal of the youngster’s development.

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Zach Wilson on Pint: “Numbers are numbers, and in the development world, they don’t tell the whole story. As a matter of fact, they tell very little of the story. Walking [59] guys in fewer than 100 innings is going to raise a red flag to somebody staring at a stat line, but this was a 19-year-old in his first full season — and we were aggressive with him. The numbers weren’t a concern to us whatsoever. This was just a small part of the global developments scenario for Riley. He made strides.

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A couple weeks ago, I asked my colleague Jeff Zimmerman to help me find some Shohei Ohtani comps and make a projection for Ohtani based upon the Davenport Translations of his 2016 NPB stats. Remember, Ohtani missed much of last season due to ankle and thigh injuries. Per Davenport, Ohtani’s 2016 numbers equate to the following MLB performance as a then-age-21 hitter: 324 at-bats, 14 home runs, 34 walks, 89 strikeouts, a .306/.367/.512 slash line, and 133 wRC+. He’s 23 now.

I was trying to answer whether Ohtani would produce more relative value as a DH in the AL or as a pitcher not only batting but also pinch-hitting in the NL. (And, yes, he might end up playing in the field in the NL.)

Here’s the full list of performance comps Zimmerman provided for Ohtani the Hitter:

2016 Comps
Adrian Beltre
Aledmys Diaz
Tyler Naquin
Hanley Ramirez
Corey Seager
Andrew Toles

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To make it clear right off the bat, this has nothing to do with Shohei Ohtani or Giancarlo Stanton. This has nothing to do with the current offseason market, and, frankly, this has nothing to do with baseball from any of the past few decades. This is just built around a historical fun fact, but, you know, we all need breaks. And we all need improbable fun facts.

You can probably think of a few baseball coincidences on your own. One I personally can’t forget is that both Ken Griffey Jr. and Stan Musial were born on November 21 in Donora, Pennsylvania. There’s Roberto Clemente’s career ending at exactly 3,000 hits. I don’t know what you do and don’t remember, but I have a coincidence to add to the list. It takes a little explaining, but I think the destination is worth it. Maybe you won’t agree in the end, but I’ve been thinking about this since I found it by accident during a podcast last week. I feel compelled to speak my truth. I have to share this little statistical story.

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I think we all understand the present circumstances. The Marlins are trying to trade Giancarlo Stanton in order to clear payroll, and they’ve reached general agreements with both the Cardinals and the Giants. From the Cardinals, the Marlins would get talent and salary relief. From the Giants, the Marlins would get talent and salary relief. There are differences, obviously, but right now you’d think there are only these two finalists. Stanton has full no-trade protection, but he doesn’t want to stick around where he is, and so we’re getting to a decision point. Stanton will soon need to pick St. Louis or San Francisco.

Or neither. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, but Stanton grew up and played high-school ball around Los Angeles. We’re not familiar with Stanton’s actual thoughts, but the consensus opinion is that Stanton’s ideal outcome would be a trade to the Dodgers. To this point, we haven’t heard much about the Dodgers’ trade interest. Stanton wouldn’t be the type of add they typically make. And yet, here we are. The Dodgers continue to loom over this whole thing.

This can obviously change as it goes, but Giants expect a Stanton decision by the end of the week. I’m hearing they continue to view Dodgers, not Cardinals, as biggest threat.

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) December 6, 2017

Giancarlo Stanton? Stanton has plenty of leverage. But so do the Dodgers. The Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes are unusual, but so is this situation, with Stanton effectively able to hold out until he gets what he wants.

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As much as certain aspects of pitching remain a mystery when it comes to analytics, we’ve figured out a few things about the changeup. Like, movement is good! And like, a bigger velocity gap is good if you want whiffs! Those sorts of relationships can be identified pretty easily. And since movement and velocity become stable really quickly, you can cut this sort of thing into smaller samples and still get meaningful results.

You can ask things like: whose changeup improved the most in the second half, when it comes to things like velocity and movement differential off the fastball? And then you can get answers.

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The most curious entry on Shohei Ohtani’s list of seven finalists is the San Diego Padres. Given the club’s relatively diminutive market and general lack of competitiveness over the last decade, the Padres don’t immediately profile as a destination for a player of Ohtani’s magnitude.

But the Padres aren’t the only outlier. There’s another. If not quite as unexpected as the Padres, the Cubs certainly represent the second-most surprising team on Ohtani’s list.

The Cubs have the market. They also have a recent track record of success and the roster to compete in the future. They represent a geographic outlier among Ohtani’s remaining suitors, though. Of those seven final clubs, the Cubs are located in the eastern-most and coldest-climate city. For a player who seems to have a strong preference for playing on the West Coast and in ideal weather conditions, Chicago is a curious choice.

Ohtani eliminated every other NL East, AL East, NL Central, and AL Central club, en route to selecting his final seven teams. That he retained the Cubs must mean that he really likes something about the team apart from geography and market size. In other words, he really likes something about the Cubs that their decision-makers within the organization can control or sell.

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Coming into the offseason, the Rangers needed to add pitching. Just pitching, regular pitching, any kind of pitching. They looked thin in the rotation and they looked thin in the bullpen, and that makes things both complicated and entirely simple. Complicated, in that the Rangers needed plenty of help. Simple, in that there’s a lot of potential help out there. Already, the Rangers have added Doug Fister. Fister will help. The deal looks good.

The Rangers are one of the seven finalists for Shohei Ohtani. Obviously, landing him would be a dream. The team was also interested in Miles Mikolas, but he’s decided to sign with the Cardinals. Matt Bush is attempting a conversion from the bullpen to the rotation. And now, according to reports, the Rangers are signing Mike Minor to a multi-year deal. Minor entered the market as one of the most in-demand available relievers. The Rangers could use him as a reliever — but, apparently, Plan A is to convert him, too. Minor will get a chance to start, and the Rangers might end up with a six-man rotation.

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Just yesterday, I took the chance to write a little something about Miles Mikolas, a non-Shohei Ohtani starting pitcher available now after spending years in Japan. I figured that Mikolas was flying under the radar, but I had no idea he was so close to signing a major-league contract. It’s a perfect example of accidental timeliness. Mikolas has now reached an agreement with the Cardinals, for $15.5 million over two years. It’s a bit north of what some executives expected, but demand drove the price. Mikolas will get another opportunity to start in the bigs, after having been one of the better starters in Japan for three years.

I’ll just re-post the same image from Monday:

For three years, but last year in particular, Mikolas has succeeded through strikes and ground balls. He’s wound up with good strikeout rates, too, but not so much because of true swing-and-miss stuff. He’s gotten strikeouts by getting ahead and staying ahead. By winning these sweepstakes, the Cardinals are expressing the most faith in Mikolas’ ability to keep hitting his spots in the majors. He blends a low-90s fastball with a big curve and a sharp slider, and that slider, last season, was one of the most effective secondary pitches in the NPB. Mikolas additionally led the league in innings pitched one year after missing time with shoulder discomfort. Being just 29, he should be around the prime of his career.

The popular comp seems to be Colby Lewis. When Lewis returned to the majors from Japan in 2010, he made 32 starts and was worth 4.7 WAR. That sets probably too high a bar, but the arsenals are similar, and the terms here are still perfectly affordable, even despite the widespread demand. Last offseason, Edinson Volquez signed for two years and $22 million. Jason Hammel signed for two years and $16 million. Charlie Morton signed for two years and $14 million. Hell, Travis Wood signed for two years and $12 million. This is roughly how Mikolas has been classified. It’s not hard to see how he could exceed market expectations.

The Rangers had been closely linked to Mikolas, having had him before. Apparently they were thinking about trying a six-man rotation, including Mikolas, Mike Minor, and — potentially — Ohtani. Now they won’t have Mikolas, and they still might not get Ohtani, but it’s clear they’re open-minded. As for the Cardinals, Mikolas joins Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Luke Weaver, Alex Reyes, and Jack Flaherty. The rotation is deep in talent, if not in track record. Reyes won’t be ready to begin the season, and he could open as a reliever. Flaherty could probably use more time in the minors. That leaves the Cardinals with five names, with further depth available as needed. This also makes it easier to part with a starter for a hitter, so, in short, there are options. Signing Mikolas decreases financial flexibility, but it increases resource flexibility. We already knew the Cardinals were looking to make trades, and now it’s that much easier to subtract from the potential starting staff.

Mikolas is no guarantee to succeed, but he’s already succeeded at one of the world’s highest levels. He’s earned this shot, and if his command can carry over, this could look like a great deal in six or seven months. At last, it feels like the offseason market is opening up. I’d say it’s about time.

Over the last decade, the Giants have been one of the most successful franchises in the game, winning 831 regular season games and, of course, three World Series titles. Along the way, there have been plenty of important weeks, most notably in October, when Madison Bumgarner and friends stepped up and played their best baseball at the most important time of the year. But while the Giants’ recent past has been full of big moments, this week might be the one that determines the Giants future for the next decade.

Obviously, the team’s pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton has dominated news about the team so far this off-season, and Stanton would certainly make the team significantly better. But as Jeff Sullivan noted recently, the Giants aren’t really in a position to just trade for Stanton and think that solves their problems. I’m going to steal a graph from his post, showing the current projected standings in the NL based on the Steamer projections.

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