I’m writing this Thursday for publishing Friday, and that’s always a risk when you’re dealing with a player on the market, because you never know when circumstances might change. My topic is Jake Arrieta as a current free agent. He could, at any moment, cease to be a free agent at all. This is the chance I’m taking, but, I have to say, I like my odds. It doesn’t seem like Arrieta’s about to make a decision.

So let’s think about that for a few minutes. Arrieta is one of several Scott Boras guys out there, and he’s one of the higher-profile starters in baseball. It wasn’t long ago at all that it seemed like Arrieta might be the best starter in the sport, and even his most recent ERA was only 3.53. Arrieta’s at that point where he’s right between young-ish and old, so you’d think he’d have some years left in his arm — he’s only about five months older than fellow free agent Yu Darvish. But there hasn’t been very much Arrieta buzz. Not that those of us on the outside always get to know precisely what’s happening on the inside, but there haven’t been many Arrieta rumors. His market still hasn’t fully developed as expected.

Darvish would have something to do with that. Various trade options would have something to do with that. Yet, potentially, there’s also an additional factor. Jake Arrieta is out there, to be signed. Where are the Cubs?

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Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel published their top-100 list on Monday. Other outlets have released similar lists, as well, recently — outlets including Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, and MLB Pipeline. I submitted my own contribution yesterday with KATOH’s top-100 prospects. All of these lists attempt to accomplish the very same goal: both to identify and rank the best prospects. But KATOH goes about it in a very different way than the others. While most others rely heavily on scouting, KATOH focuses on statistical performance.

On the whole, there’s a good deal of agreement between KATOH and the more traditional rankings. Many of KATOH’s favorite prospects have also received praise from real-live human beings who’ve watched them play. Ronald Acuna, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Brent Honeywell, Michael Kopech, and Kyle Tucker all fall within this group. In general, there is a lot of agreement. However, there are other KATOH favorites who’ve received little public consideration from prospect analysts. The purpose of this article is to give these prospects a little bit of attention.

For each position, I’ve identified the player, among those excluded from all top-100 lists, who’s best acquitted by KATOH. These players have performed in the minors in a way that usually portends big-league success. Yet, for one reason or another, each has been overlooked by prospect evaluators.

Of course, the fact that these players missed every top-100 list suggests that their physical tools are probably underwhelming. That’s very important information! Often times, the outlook for players like this is much worse than their minor-league stats would lead you to believe. There’s a reason people in the industry always say “don’t scout the stat line.” Although KATOH scouts the stat line in an intuitive fashion, it still overlooks important inputs that can predict big-league success.

Still, the stat-line darlngs sometimes pan out. I performed this  exact same exercise last year, as well, and I’m proud to say there were some big successes. Rhys Hoskins, Jake Faria, Ben Gamel, Chad Green, and Brandon Nimmo have each blossomed into productive big leaguers just one year out. Zach Davies and Edwin Diaz also appeared in this space two years ago. Of course, others haven’t worked out so well. Clayton Blackburn, Dylan Cozens, Ramon Flores, and Garrett Stubbs: none of them were particularly useful major leaguers in 2017. There will be hits, and there will be misses, especially when you’re dealing with non-elite prospects.

*****

C – Jake Rogers, Detroit (Profile)

Why KATOH Loves Him
Rogers hit a respectable .261/.350/.467 across two levels of A-ball last year, pairing an 11% walk rate with encouraging power. Most impressive of all, however, is that he did so as a catcher — a position where good hitters are few and far between. Rogers isn’t just any catcher, either: Clay Davenport’s defensive numbers graded him out as elite. Elite defensive catchers who can also hit a little are exceptionally valuable.

Why Scouts Don’t (J.J Cooper)

He has a big leg kick to start his swing, and takes a ferocious cut with a pull-heavy approach. When his swing works, he has the power to deposit pitches in the left-field bleachers. When it doesn’t, he rolls over ground outs or hits a number of harmless pop outs. Evaluators generally see Rogers as a below-average hitter with a lot of swings and misses and average bat speed.

My Thoughts
Usually, KATOH’s catcher crushes are good hitters who are questionable behind the plate. Rogers is the exact opposite, as his offense is the questionable piece. Eric Longenhagen called him “best defensive catching prospect I’ve seen, a polished receiver and cat-like ball-blocker with a plus arm” over the summer. Even if Rogers’ A-ball numbers ultimately don’t translate, he could still be a solid regular given how little catchers hit. For example, Martin Maldonado defended his way to 1.1 WAR last year in spite of a 73 wRC+.

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An interesting thing happened last season in interleague play. The American League won 53% of the games. That’s not the interesting part. The AL has won the majority of interleague games for 14 years in a row. But while that was happening, the NL did take one step forward. The designated hitter is an AL thing, something that AL teams have to actually plan for. NL teams kind of just wing it. And yet NL designated hitters in 2017 out-hit AL designated hitters. Here’s a plot of league DH wOBA, going back to the start of interleague play just over two decades ago.

Over 21 years, NL designated hitters have out-hit AL designated hitters three times. Last year, the gap was 11 points of wOBA. In 2009, the gap was 16 points. And, in 2003, the gap was an incredible 31 points. Weird things happen, but, again, it shouldn’t be surprising that the AL is usually better here. Those teams invest in the DH position. Their DHs are used to the work. The NL just benefited from a little bit of randomness.

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The team that eventually signs Neil Walker will be getting a player who has been consistent and dynamic over the course of his career. Those descriptions come courtesy of the 32-year-old free agent himself — and they’re pretty accurate. In his eight full big-league seasons, Walker has averaged 2.7 WAR annually, with the ebbs and flows remaining within a reasonably narrow range. Ditto his OPS, which has always been higher than league average, but never north of .823.

A first-round pick by his hometown (give or take a few miles) Pirates in 2004, Walker was Pittsburgh property prior to being traded to the Mets in December 2015, and then to the Brewers last August. Along the way, he’s remained steady-as-she-goes productive, as well as a positive influence in the clubhouse.

“I’ve been able to fit into many roles with the teams I’ve been on,” Walker told me at the tail end of last season. “I’ve hit at the top of the order and the middle of the order. I’ve been a run producer and a run scorer. I’ve played pretty decent defense. I feel I’ve been a fairly dynamic and consistent player.”

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Baseball is in an era of extremes. While the game has always evolved, it’s rarely — if ever — evolved so quickly.

Home runs have increased dramatically due to a variety of factors, velocity continues to rise, bullpens keep on gaining a greater share of the overall workload. The MLBPA, meanwhile, has been taken aback by the changing complexion of the free-agent marketplace, defined this offseason by stagnation — in part due to the speed with which organizations have adapted to the terms of the latest CBA.

Another labor-ownership issue — pace — continues to be problematic. Not necessary the overall time of games, but the increasing duration of seconds between pitches in an age when attention spans are continually tested. To really engage a fan and customer, particularly the next generation, you probably don’t want them to be able/compelled to look at their smartphone between every pitch.

There’s a lot of extremes. And I’m writing to discuss yet another here today: the disabled list.

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Over at Baseball Prospectus, it’s PECOTA day. Now, that means a whole lot of different things, but one of the things it means is that now BP gets to unveil its projected 2018 standings. Some years ago, I used to get extremely excited about seeing the first standings projections. Then FanGraphs decided to start hosting projections year-round. They’re always right here, and for months, that information has been based on the Steamer projection system. Pretty soon, well in advance of opening day, the ZiPS system will get folded in, to say nothing of remaining transactions. The point being, having projected standings is fun. They serve to keep the mind occupied with thoughts of baseball.

Projected standings aren’t just a toy for the public. I mean, the public ones are, but teams also have their own private projections, that might be better, or that might be basically the same. Team projections drive perceptions, and team projections drive transactions. We feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are situated to contend. We also feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are far away. Right now, in 2018, based in part on the projections and in part on what just happened a year ago, we have the sense we’re in an era of super-teams, which might be keeping the market slow. Other teams might not feel like they’re close enough to invest.

I love having access to team projections. I use them all the time for analysis and articles. But I feel like I should remind you of the limitations. This is something I could probably write every single year. I’m sure on some level you already know what I’m going to say. Projections are pretty good. They can also end up very, very far off.

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The Twins need starting pitching. You know that. I know that. The Twins know that. It’s the reason they’ve been connected with pretty much all the available free agents, Yu Darvish the most prominent among them. Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn are among the next tier of free agents who would make some sense for the club. Below that, you have former Twin — for one game, at least —Jaime Garcia and some other options like Wade Miley and Jason Vargas.

Before yesterday, it seemed pretty likely that Minnesota would be adding one of the top four pitchers available this winter. With Ervin Santana now expected to miss the first month of the season due to finger surgery, it might actually be a good idea for the Twins to sign two pitchers.

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Pitching is weird. Development commonly follows an uneven timeline, with progress being erratic, often unpredictable. One little change can mean the difference between life in Triple-A and 20 million dollars, so if there’s one thing to try to accumulate, it’s youth. Young pitchers come with the benefit of more time. It’s hard to know what they’ll do with it, but at least they have it to begin with. More time to find the adjustments that matter.

The Reds can sometimes be an easy team to forget. Their rebuild, admittedly, remains a work in progress. Yet one thing they’ve certainly done is collect young starting pitchers, which gives them that volatility and upside, even beyond the already volatile Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani. Maybe this year will be the year for Cody Reed. Maybe it’ll be the year for Amir Garrett, or Robert Stephenson. Not to leave out Sal Romano. Not to leave out Brandon Finnegan, or Tyler Mahle. Not to leave out all the other candidates. With a few new pitches, or with a few mechanical tweaks, the Reds could suddenly have something special on their hands.

What the Reds have desperately needed to do is develop quality pitching. There’s plenty more development remaining to be achieved. Among the whole assortment, however, there’s one shining light. There’s not really anything left for Luis Castillo to do. He’s an electrifying starter who already made his final adjustment on the fly.

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Hey, do you want to play a game? One that involves assuming the role of Fake GM? And possibly ignoring or postponing whatever work you should be doing?

If so, then you’re in luck: FanGraphs dot com Community Research contributor Stephen Coelho has created such a game — one that you can access here, at your own peril.

This particular game allows one to build a roster out of major leaguers, with one notable constraint: only players who were free agents as of February 5th are available (meaning newest Met Todd Frazier is included).

Constructing fake teams based upon available free agents is a familiar pastime. In this case, however, it’s also a particularly relevant exercise, as we are currently in the midst of the slowest offseason on record. We have proof of if you harbor any doubts. Some 120 free agents remained unsigned. While not all of them are bound for a major-league roster spot, many quality players remained unemployed, including nine of FanGraphs’ top-20 free agents and four of the top five.

Coehlo himself attempted to build teams using different budgets, one more like small-market club, the other like a large-market one while staying under the tax threshold. This author also decided to play along in a slightly different manner. I ignored the tax threshold.

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Here’s the thing: You might well be sick of this. Actually, no, here’s the thing: Even if you are sick of this, which you might be, baseball writers are in the writing business, and when baseball things happen, baseball writers write about them. When baseball things *don’t* happen, baseball writers still need to write, because that’s the job. So you’ve been seeing a lot about the slow pace of free agency, and you’ve been thinking more than you’d like to about trends in team payrolls. Throw this onto the pile. I’ve got even more analysis.

As Craig Edwards wrote a few days ago, league-wide spending could go down in 2018, compared to 2017. That’s not something that frequently happens. Within that post, Craig inserted a plot, showing how all 30 teams have moved. Here, I’d like to add some further context, courtesy of Cot’s Contracts. I’m going to look at every team, going back to the year 2000.

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