Everybody knows that next year’s crop of free agents is going to be spectacular. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado headline the class, of course, but Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Andrew McCutchen will all be available, as well. Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, will have the option of opting out of the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. The collection of talent is impressive. The contracts they’re all likely to receive are expected to be equally so.

By contrast, the prospect “merely” of Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, and J.D. Martinez — that is, the top names of the 2017-18 offseason — isn’t as striking. Had things unfolded differently, however, this offseason would have facilitated a free-agent bonanza of its own.

The Dodgers and Yankees appear motivated to avoid the competitive-balance tax right now, but would they be doing so if Mike Trout were available? How about Jose Altuve or Paul Goldschmidt? This isn’t some fantasyland where every player is a free agent. If Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Trout hadn’t signed team-friendly contract extensions, all three would be free agents right now. They aren’t the only ones, either.

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Eric Hosmer has waited some time for a market to come together for his services. Part of the reason for the delay is that large-market clubs like the Dodgers and Yankees are not in need of a first baseman and are trying to remain below the luxury-tax threshold. Part of it is that teams are learning to better wait out free agents. (By Jan. 3 of last winter, nine of FanGraphs’ top-10 free agents had signed. This year? Three.) Hosmer’s agent Scott Boras famously said that there should be no concern for a free agent if he’s “the steak,” making the analogy to the main course of a fine dinner. There is some debate, however, as to whether Hosmer is a steak or a lesser cut.

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Outfielder Cam Perkins was claimed off waivers by the Seattle Mariners about a month ago now. As deals go, it wasn’t particularly notable for anyone but the parties immediately involved. Originally selected by Philadelphia in the sixth round of the 2012 draft, Perkins has exhibited signs of promise during his ascent through the minors, demonstrating a capacity for contact that’s uncommon for players who also possess his game power. Perkins has also complemented that offensive profile with sufficient athleticism to play if not necessarily to thrive in center field. He’s an interesting player. Flawed, but interesting.

That said, the Phillies’ 40-man roster was full en route to the Winter Meetings. If the club had any designs on selecting a player in the Rule 5 draft — or creating flexibility for any other reason — it was necessary to part ways with at least one player. Whatever Perkins’ virtues, Philadelphia also possesses a number of interesting other outfielders. Interesting and, presumably, less flawed.

So now the Mariners have him — and could very well have some use for him in 2018. As for how useful Perkins could be to Seattle, there are a few ways to estimate that. The prorated Steamer projections, for example, call for him to produce 0.3 WAR for every 600 plate appearances currently. Chris Mitchell’s KATOH system, meanwhile, forecasts 2.2 WAR over Perkins’ six team-controlled years — or, roughly 0.4 wins per annum. Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, reached by way of talking across the room, gives Perkins a 40 Future Value grade, or roughly equivalent to one win per season at his peak.

Those are all valid methods for estimating possible value. What I propose to do here is provide another one. Perhaps less useful but not entirely without worth.

Major-league clubs have pretty sophisticated means by which to estimate talent. As such, they’re unlikely ever to waive a player who could serve some real use to their club. At the same time, because of those sophisticated evaluation methods, prospective “claiming” teams are unlikely to allocate a spot on their 40-man roster to a player incapable of serving some minimal use to their club. A player, then, who’s been both placed on and then claimed off waivers hypothetically occupies a somewhat narrow band of value. The very fact that a player has been waived and claimed ought, theoretically, to reveal how the league is evaluating him.

Assuming that line of reason has some merit, let’s attempt to calculate (roughly) what that value is. A reasonably careful examination of the data reveals that 107 different players have changed hands by way of waivers over the last three offseasons (where “offseason” is defined as November 1 to March 30th). What sort of value did those players provide in the season following their waiver claim?

There are a few ways to answer the question. First, let’s just look at the best players by this criteria. Here are the top-10 seasons produced by a player waived and claimed during the last three offseason.

Selected off waivers by Cincinnati just before the start of the 2017 campaign, Scooter Gennett proceeded to produce a career season for the Reds, hitting 27 home runs (including four in a single game) and recording more than two wins for his new club. He enters the 2018 season as Cincinnati’s starting second baseman.

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In 2017, I once again had the pleasure of interviewing hundreds of people within baseball. Many of their words were shared via the FanGraphs Q&A series, while others came courtesy of my Sunday Notes column. Continuing what has become an annual tradition, here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations.

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“Jerry (Dipoto) is extremely professional about returning calls and texts, open to ideas, and not afraid to make moves, particularly in terms of trading prospects. It’s amazing how many conversations get shot down almost immediately, but Jerry will listen and engage.” — John Coppolella, Braves GM, January 2017

“I think you’d be surprised. There are a lot of hitters in the big leagues right now that can’t hit a good fastball. Because of their status, everybody thinks they can crush a fastball, so pitchers are reluctant to throw it to them. They don’t have to be.” — Jim Leyland, former manager, January 2017

“You end up with a really ugly, flat slider. It’s basically a nothing fastball that doesn’t do anything except go about 400 feet. To the hitter, it’s a cookie. As a pitcher, you don’t want to serve up cookies.” — Larry Andersen, Phillies broadcaster, January 2017

“Bobby (Valentine) left him in. Sojo gets a hit, and we lose. They win and the World Series is over. The first thing Bobby says to me is, ‘Hey, don’t forget now; you’ve got to cover my ass.’” — Dave Wallace, former pitching coach, January 2017 Read the rest of this entry »

Today, the Rockies agreed to sign Wade Davis to a three year, $52 million contract, capping an off-season of bullpen spending that also saw them give $27 million each to Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw. The Rockies’ plan couldn’t be more obvious, as they are loading up on relievers in the hopes of bullpenning their way through October. With their trio of free agent relievers pushing Adam Ottavino, Chris Rusin, and Mike Dunn to earlier-game situations, the Rockies now have one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. If they were able to roll out that group in the postseason, they could be dangerous.

The problem remains getting to October, however. We projected the Rockies for 79 wins before they signed Davis, so adding him will move the forecast up to 80 wins, most likely. And if you think that’s just Steamer being overly negative, it’s not just us.

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The Colorado Rockies have been rumored for a month-plus to be on the verge of signing a free-agent closer who used to pitch for the Kansas City Royals. Today, they did just that — but it’s not the reliever you might have thought. Instead of re-signing Greg Holland, they opted to add Wade Davis to the fold. Jeff Passan reports:

On its own, there’s a lot to consider here — and that’s without even accounting for the terms of the deal and what those terms mean for the Rockies. Once again, Passan:

This can really only go one of two ways. The first possible outcome — and the one that’s more probable — is that it blows up in Colorado’s face, becoming a cautionary tale like the Mike Hampton–Denny Neagle signing spree of Dec. 2000. The second is that the Rockies are on to something here. Yes, they may have just assembled the most expensive bullpen in history — certainly it will be one of the most expensive — but they have the opportunity to ride with that for this year at least because of all the minimum-contract pitchers they have.

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Dick Enberg died on Thursday, at the age 82, in La Jolla, California. His roots were in Michigan. Born in Mount Clemens, Enberg lived on a farm in Amada and attended college in Mount Pleasant. He went on to cultivate an inimitable broadcast style and become known to sports fans everywhere.

To say that Enberg reached the pinnacle of the profession would be an understatement. He called some of the biggest games in college basketball history, several Super Bowls, and more than two dozen Wimbledons. As the voice of the California Angels, and later the San Diego Padres, he was behind the microphone for nine no-hitters. Two years ago, the Baseball Hall of Fame honored him with the Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasting excellence.

Enberg was reportedly as good of a person as he was a broadcaster and based on my brief interactions with him that’s certainly true. When I first met Enberg, we spoke of our shared Finnish heritage and small town Michigan upbringings. He couldn’t have been more congenial. I recall walking away impressed that a legend could be so humble.

It is by no means hyperbolic to call Enberg a legend. Here is what two of the best broadcasters in the business had to say when I asked them about his passing.

Len Kasper, Chicago Cubs: “I was very saddened to see the news. Dick was one of the first big time national sportscasters I remember hearing as a kid. I took a special interest in his work because he went to Central Michigan University, just a few miles from where I grew up. I was fortunate to get to know him a little bit when he joined the Padres TV booth and we had several great conversations. The word iconic gets thrown around lazily in our business, but if Dick Enberg wasn’t an iconic broadcaster, I don’t know who was. I will throw out one other thing. His tennis work was totally underrated. I watched a ton of it in the ‘80s and ‘90s and he was the #1 voice of THAT sport too! He did everything! Versatile, knowledgeable, understated, he had everything you’d want in a national broadcaster.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Diamondbacks want to build a stronger bullpen, but they say they don’t have much money to spend. As such, instead of talking to Wade Davis or Greg Holland, the club added Brad Boxberger. And now, the club has also added 33-year-old Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hirano, the terms set at two years and $6 million. That’s a little steeper than the two years and $4 million given by the Rangers to Chris Martin, who’s also coming over from Japan. Martin is younger and has been better more recently, but Hirano is more decorated.

Having spent his whole career with the Orix Buffaloes, Hirano has 156 saves to his name. He converted to relief full-time in 2010, and he became a closer full-time in 2013. It’s possible he could close for Arizona. It’s possible Boxberger could close. It’s possible Archie Bradley could close. Maybe all of them will close! I don’t know how it’ll work out, and the Diamondbacks themselves probably don’t know how it’ll work out, but Hirano will get important innings regardless. What does the righty have to offer? It just so happens he faced Nolan Arenado in the most recent WBC. Hirano threw three pitches and got a strikeout. The at-bat opened with a slider:

Then there was a splitter:

Then there was a fastball:

That’s Hirano. Get-me-over breaking ball, mid-80s splitter, low-90s fastball. The slider, he doesn’t throw very much. The splitter is his signature. Or, if you prefer, forkball. I’m not going to pretend to be able to tell them apart. Effectively, there’s no difference. Last year, in Japan, Hirano threw the highest rate of splitters out of all pitchers. We’re talking a little more than two-fifths of his pitches.

Hirano has dominance in his history. Even last year, he had a sub-3 ERA, which followed a year with a sub-2 ERA. But Hirano might’ve been at his best in 2013. You can’t look at his numbers without noticing the following:

Hirano’s strikeout rate has plummeted, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. It’s not what any front office would want to see. On the more encouraging side, though, Hirano hasn’t lost any zip. There exists pitch-tracking data in Japan for the past four years, and Hirano’s fastball and splitter have maintained basically the same velocities. He’s throwing the same pitches he used to. So he could get back to his old level of performance. And there exists a belief he could benefit from the American baseball.

Koji Uehara would be an easy comparison here, and his strikeout rate got better after coming to the States. Masahiro Tanaka and Hisashi Iwakuma also generated strikeout-rate upticks. And I might as well note that, while Seung Hwan Oh doesn’t lean on a splitter, he had a fantastic rookie season in the majors. His last year in Japan, Oh had a K-BB% of 17%. His first year in the majors, it was 27%. Now, Oh also had a much rougher sophomore campaign, but when he signed with the Cardinals, he, too, looked like he could be declining. Instead, he was initially terrific. The Diamondbacks are making a modest bet on Hirano’s stuff staying the same, and his splitter playing up.

Uehara has had an outstanding major-league career, throwing fastballs and splitters with a little less zip. He also, however, appears to command the ball better than Hirano does. Edward Mujica would be a lesser potential outcome. Even he had his uses. Hirano doesn’t seem to be at his peak, and the Diamondbacks won’t look for him to be their savior. But if Hirano likes the ball, there’s a chance he could be a major first-half surprise. The fastball/splitter combination has been proven to work, provided they’re thrown right. Hirano hasn’t lost his arm strength.

Over the course of a few days during the winter meetings, it seemed like all that was happening was that free-agent relievers were signing multiyear contracts. And not just multiyear contracts — reasonably expensive multiyear contracts. Both Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw got three years. An incomplete selection of the relievers who got two: Brandon Morrow, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak, Steve Cishek, and Pat Neshek. These are all good pitchers. They deserve what they’ve gotten. But people are still relatively unaccustomed to seeing non-closers get $8 million a year. This is the bullpen age, indeed.

As the run on relievers was taking place, a common refrain was that teams were looking to sign the next Brandon Morrow, or the next Anthony Swarzak. Not that Morrow or Swarzak didn’t still get their money, but neither was considered valuable a year ago. They popped up, almost out of nowhere, and they became deadly weapons. So, teams figure, why wouldn’t there be other pop-up relievers? Why spend so much on a guy if you think you can find the next bullpen breakthrough?

Every team is looking for the next pop-up. It’s not easy to spot success before success. The Rangers think they have someone in Chris Martin, and I wrote about him, but he’s been terrific in Japan. It’s a different sort of gamble. Wily Peralta and Yovani Gallardo have signed with the Royals and Brewers, respectively, but they might still start. I don’t know if they’re necessarily considered the same kind of pop-up targets. This all leads me to Tom Koehler. I wanted to find a pitcher who’s been identified as a potential next Swarzak or Morrow. The Dodgers signed Koehler for $2 million, and if he hits all his incentives as a reliever, the salary tops out at $2.95 million. He’s under control for 2019, and the Dodgers see him in the bullpen.

Koehler, this past season, was bad. He had an ERA of almost 7. The bulk of his career has been spent as a starter, and there’s a perfectly good chance his 2018 goes off the rails. And yet the Dodgers think they might see something, something that could handle high-leverage situations. What is it the Dodgers are thinking? I’d like to give it my best guess.

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The Indians have their Carlos Santana replacement.

On Thursday evening, Cleveland agreed to a two-year, $16 million deal with air-ball revolution poster boy Yonder Alonso. The contract includes an option for a third season.

There were a number of potential first-base fits for Cleveland in a deep class that included other left-handed options like Matt Adams (who reached a one-year, $4 million deal with Nationals), Mitch Moreland (two years, $13 million with Red Sox) Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison. Eric Hosmer’s ask, and perhaps inconsistency, likely pushed him out of consideration for the club.

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