Archive for Featured

FanGraphs Membership

Today, we’re excited to introduce FanGraphs Membership. What is FanGraphs Membership? Quite simply, it is a voluntary way for you to help support all the baseball content we produce each and every day. If you’ve been looking for an opportunity to help contribute to the long-term growth of the site, this is your chance to do just that, and partner with us to help continue to provide data and content that helps us all understand the game of baseball a little bit better.

FanGraphs Membership is not a paywall; we are not creating a separate section of the site that will only be available to members. In fact, we’re actually taking the content that was previously available to FanGraphs+ subscribers and making it available to everyone. We want every person who visits the site to feel that they are getting the most out of their experience, and believe that, with a broad base of support from the fantastic community here, we can continue to provide that information without restricting access to anyone.

With the introduction of FanGraphs Membership, all the content produced on FanGraphs will now be accessible for free, without logging in, or being a FanGraphs Member. If you are not a FanGraphs Member, we will occasionally ask if you’d like to join in supporting the site, but it will always be your decision to make. Think of FanGraphs Membership as something akin to the model used by NPR.

Now you may be asking yourself, why is FanGraphs doing this?

Read the rest of this entry »


The Best Transactions of the 2016 Offseason

While the offseason isn’t quite over yet, we’ve reached a point at which most of the major transactions have probably already been made. Sure, we might see Jonathan Lucroy moved in a deal over the next few weeks, but outside of some unforeseen blockbuster, it’s mostly going to be minor moves from here on out. So, with the heavy lifting behind us, it’s time to take a look back at the 10 moves that I most liked this winter.

Overall, I’ve tried to balance the value added by acquiring a player — not just his own performance, but his impact on the team’s chances of reaching and advancing in the postseason — with the price paid to make the move. In some cases, teams on this list made themselves worse in the short-term, but the potential long-term benefit suggests that it was a worthwhile sacrifice. Other teams are here for making shrewd additions that improved their chances in 2016, and one of these moves even manages to potentially improve the franchise in both the present and future; you’ll find that rare big win at the very top the list.

Of course, these are all just based on my perceptions at this point in time, and several of these moves won’t look so hot as time goes on. Last year, I really liked the Chase Headley deal for the Yankees and put the Red Sox’ acquisition of Wade Miley one spot ahead of the Blue Jays’ pickup of Josh Donaldson, so, you know, don’t take this as gospel. But based on how I look at these moves right now, without the benefit of hindsight, there are the 10 moves I’ve liked the most this offseason.

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Lindor, Lucroy, Japan, Twins, Shaving Cream, more

A lot of buzz preceded Francisco Lindor’s mid-June call-up last summer. Much of it revolved around the when, with some suggesting the Indians’ top prospect was being unnecessarily held back. He was certainly ready once he arrived in Cleveland. Lindor hit .313/.353/.482 over 99 games and finished second in American League rookie-of-the-year voting behind Carlos Correa.

The young shortstop’s Super Two status is presumed to have played a role in the timing, but that’s less cut-and-dried than you might imagine. The Super Two cutoff date changes from year to year and is based on percentages that weren’t yet determined when Lindor debuted. In short, the small-market Indians were certainly cognizant of future arbitration hearings, but they didn’t have a date circled on the calendar.

According to Carter Hawkins, the decision was based more on readiness than on economics. Side-stepping specific questions on service time, the Cleveland farm director share the club’s thought-process earlier this week.

“In some ways, the timing of Francisco’s call-up was a little bit easier than other prospect call-ups we’ve experienced over the last few years,” Hawkins told me. “The reason being that, collectively, we felt so strongly about Francisco’s future as a cornerstone of the organization that we were able to eliminate a lot of the other variables and focus purely on what was best for Francisco from a baseball standpoint.

“There wasn’t a specific benchmark we were looking for, but over the course of the first few months in Columbus, Francisco really took his game to the next level — refining his approach, both offensively and defensively. When he really heated up in early June, it was that foundation that gave us the confidence that our team goals in Cleveland, and our development goals for Francisco, were both best served with Frankie in an Indians uniform.”

———

In a recent article on 2015 first-round draft pick Christin Stewart, I noted that the Tigers, unlike the vast majority of teams, didn’t hold an instructional league this past fall. The Cardinals did, although with a wrinkle. Unlike in past seasons, they didn’t invite any of the players they drafted in June.

The decision was a curious one. It is common practice for organizations — St. Louis being no exception — to be largely hands-off during a draftee’s initials months of pro ball. If mechanical tweaks are in order, they are typically addressed during instructional league.

There is a grain of logic to what the Cardinals did. First-year players often start their high school and college seasons as early as February, so by the time the minor league schedule is completed, they’re burned out. Rather than extending the longest baseball year of their young lives, the Cardinals gave these players a chance to exhale. Whether this remains the approach going forward, or if it ends up being a one-year experiment, remains to be seen.

———

Japan has been in the baseball pages of late. Jonny Gomes announced that he’ll be playing for the Rakuten Golden Eagles next year. Matt Murton, who spent six seasons with the Hanshin Tigers, inked a contract with the Cubs. Hideki Okajima, who has been pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars, is returning stateside to compete for a job out of the Orioles bullpen. Off the field, Hideo Nomo was hired to an advisory role within player development for the Padres.

As mentioned in this space last weekend, Anthony Seratelli is retiring after concluding his career with the Seibu Lions. One of Seratelli’s Seibu teammates was a 5-foot-6 dynamo with an intriguing future.

Tomoya Mori, who turned 20 years old in August, hit .287/.357/.468 with 33 doubles and 17 home runs last year. A left-handed-hitting catcher who also plays the outfield, Mori was the youngest position player on the Lions’ roster.

“He’s very good,” assessed Seratelli. “He’s a little guy, but a very powerful little guy. He takes these nasty hacks, and when he connects the ball goes a long way. They play the game differently over there — their swings are a little different — but while he has a Japanese style, he produces an enormous amount of power for someone his size.”

Does Mori have the potential to play MLB some day?

“He’s young, so he has plenty of time to develop to where he could become a big league player,” said Seratelli. “He’d have to come over here to experience how the game is played, though.”

———

Jonathan Lucroy is reportedly on the trading block. If Brewers do deal the veteran backstop, they’ll be unloading more than a good pitch-framer with a decent bat. They’ll also be losing a nice guy. At least that’s the opinion of Milwaukee minor leaguer Stephen Peterson.

“He rehabbed in Wisconsin when I was there in 2012, and again this past year in Brevard County,” said Peterson. “He’s one of the nicest guys I’ve been around. And not just him being a catcher and me being a pitcher, and getting to talk about pitching. He was great with everybody. He’s one of the most open, and genuine, guys I’ve met in the game.”

———

As crack Cincinnati Enquirer Reds beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans pointed out yesterday, Jay Bruce was Baseball America’s top overall prospect heading into the 2008 season. Bruce has gone on to hit over 200 home runs, but he’s nonetheless fallen short of expectations. His last two seasons have been especially disappointing.

Rumors that the Orioles have interest in trading for Bruce may or may not have legs. If they do, and assuming they have prospects the rebuilding Reds covet — a big if — the upside is certainly there. Bruce won’t turn 30 until April 2017, and a change of scenery might result in a resurgence. If I’m Baltimore, I’m kicking the tires pretty hard.

———

Dave “King Kong” Kingman hit three home runs in a game five times. Two of those contests, each of which came with the Cubs, were especially memorable.

On May 14, 1978, Kingman’s second home run of the game was a two-run shot that evened the score in the top of the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium. His third came with two on and two out in the 15th, giving the Cubs a 10-7 win.

On May 17, 1979, Kingman hit three home runs for the Cubs in a loss to the Phillies. The final score was 23-22, in 10 innings. One of them was among the longest home runs ever hit at Wrigley Field.

———

Regular readers of this column will recall that Rockies pitching prospect Kyle Freeland was profiled here a month ago. Not included in that writeup were the southpaw’s thoughts on feel and focus. The 2014 first-round pick is big on both.

“I’m definitely aware of where my finger pressure is,” said Freeland. “That’s the case with with all of my pitches. It matters to how a pitch will break.”

“Fastball, I’m definitely throwing to where my catcher is set up. With my changeup, we mostly go back corner of the plate and I let the changeup work, instead of trying to hit a perfect location with it. Slider and curveball, it will depend on the count and the hitter as to whether I’m throwing directly to the glove or to a certain spot.

“You make pitching complicated when you start letting the game speed up on you. The simpler you keep it, the easier things are going to be for you. Just focus on putting the ball where it needs to be, and on throwing quality pitches.”

——

Jake Reed was nearly un-hittable in 2014. Drafted by the Twins out of the University of Oregon that summer, the starter-turned-closer put up a 0.29 ERA over 20 appearances at the A-ball level. Featuring a fastball that reportedly touched 97 mph, he had more than twice as many strikeouts as baserunners allowed.

Last year he encountered tougher sledding. In 35 appearances for Double-A Chattanooga, the righty had a 6.32 ERA and a .340 BABiP-against. The latter was partly attributable to jam shots and bloops, but a far bigger problem was the two-strike breaking pitches he left up in the zone. Those were struck with authority.

“I kind of developed a habit of failure,” admitted Reed. “I wasn’t able to put guys away, so when I got ahead in the count, instead of ‘I’m going to finish him off with this pitch,’ I was telling myself, ‘Don’t hang this.’ You need to have conviction with every pitch, and for awhile I didn’t have that.” Read the rest of this entry »


$500 Million For Bryce Harper Might Still Be a Bargain

Bryce Harper won’t be a free agent for three more years, but that hasn’t stopped people from writing about his next contract. Over the last few months, David Schoenfeld and Jeff Passan have discussed his eventual price tag recently, and Harper himself vaguely addressed the topic in a radio interview yesterday:

Harper was asked during an interview with 106.7 The Fan’s Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier whether he has thought about the possible magnitude of his next contract.

“I was talking to an executive this offseason,” Paulsen said. “At one point in time they said you could be the first $400 million player. Do you ever think about your future and what’s possible, in terms of you could break records for the money you make at one point in time?”

“Yeah, I mean I don’t really think about that stuff. I just try to play the years out and do everything I can to help my team win,” Harper said. “But don’t sell me short. That’s what you’re doing right now to me, so don’t do that.”

The idea that $400 million is selling Harper might seem ridiculous, but he’s right; as long as he continues to perform near expectations, the winning bid should be substantially higher than that.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Yankees: The Most Underrated Team in Baseball

In my regular Wednesday chat this week, this question popped up:

Screen Shot 2016-02-11 at 11.18.27 AM

Interestingly, a few days before, I’d been thinking about the narrative of the Yankees heading into 2016, and how so much of it is being driven by their lack of free agent spending this winter. It’s almost historically unprecedented for the Yankees to sit out an entire free agent class, but this winter, the team decided to make their upgrades through the trade market instead, and thus have not signed a single player to a major league contract this off-season. With the Red Sox stocking up for another run, the Blue Jays likely to still be a force, and the Rays and Orioles doing enough to keep themselves around .500, the Yankees are in the unusual position of being something of an afterthought in the AL East.

Thus, we get questions like this one from Christian, asking for some hope that his team might contend in 2016. Well, fear not, Christian; not only do I think there are reasons to think the Yankees are legitimate contenders, I think they might actually be the most underrated team in baseball heading into the season.

Read the rest of this entry »


Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: Detroit Tigers

Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Indians, Orioles, Reds, Red Sox, Rockies, White Sox.

To say the Tigers have had a “type” is an understatement. They have consistently brought in hard-throwing pitchers with either command or secondary-pitch questions, and most of them have ended up as relievers by the time they make it to the big leagues. As Kiley pointed out in last year’s rankings, it’s hard to fault the Tigers’ process, as they continue to develop enough talent to reinforce their big league team via trades, and Mike Ilitch has had no problem spending money to fill in the gaps with free agents.

When 2015 didn’t go according to plan, they were able to replenish their stock by trading from the underachieving parent club. And to their credit, they have started to target a more diverse group of players in the draft and internationally. There is still a lack of impact talent in this group, but a lot of depth and interesting prospects that will contribute to a winning club.

I would draw attention to the rankings that differ from other lists, but honestly, most of the grades are so similar you could shuffle them around and we would be saying the same thing. For just a few from the top end, I buy into Christin Stewart‘s power potential despite him being a recent draftee who didn’t used to have much pop. I would bet I also have more faith in Mike Gerber’s steady skill set than most. Otherwise, some guys are lower, some are higher… I can’t argue with anyone who disagrees on these guys because there aren’t big differences between a lot of them, especially on the pitching side.

Read the rest of this entry »


White Sox Buy Low on Mat Latos and His Baggage

Well, that didn’t take long. Yesterday, I addressed the White Sox desperate need to bolster their rotation to be taken seriously as a contender, and suggested Yovani Gallardo as a sensible addition. The White Sox apparently agreed with me on the first count and rendered the second moot by agreeing to terms with Mat Latos just hours after the post went up.

The deal went down for one year and $3 million, a figure that jumps out as being essentially nothing in today’s free agency landscape. Especially so, when you consider what Latos was expected to receive:

Cheapeast Contracts Relative to Crowdsourced Predictions
Player CS_Yrs CS_$ CS_AAV Tru_Yrs Tru_$ Tru_AAV Yrs_DIF $_DIF AAV_DIF
Yoenis Cespedes 6 132 22 3 75 25 –3 -57 3
Howie Kendrick 4 52 13 2 20 10 -2 -32 -3
Hisashi Iwakuma 3 42 14 1 12 12 -2 -30 -2
Mat Latos 2 22 11 1 3 3 -1 -19 -8
Alex Gordon 5 90 18 4 72 18 -1 -18 0

Looking just at guaranteed dollars, it’s the fourth-cheapest contract of the offseason, relative to the crowd’s guess. The crowd expected Latos would earn $22 million this offseason, and what he actually got was $3 million.

Look beyond that, and Latos’ deal stands out even more. We all know about the funky Cespedes contract, and even though he got $57 million fewer guaranteed than expected, that’s largely offset by him actually getting a higher AAV. Iwakuma’s price tag dropped after failing a physical. Gordon got an equal AAV, just one fewer year. In terms of just AAV, Latos is the bargain of the offseason, so far, according to this one-track methodology. His AAV is $8 million less than the crowd predicted; no other free agent has had a gap larger than $4 million.

How did this gap come to be? Did the crowd wildly overestimate Latos’ value? Did the White Sox get a total steal?

Read the rest of this entry »


2016 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Tampa Bay center fielder Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t merely recorded more wins than every other 31st-round selection from the 2010 draft, but he appears also to have recorded more wins than all but six players — including (and, it would seem, limited to) Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Matt Harvey, Manny Machado, Chris Sale, and Andrelton Simmons — from that same draft class. What else he’s done is to distinguish himself as the prohibitive star of your 2016 Rays. Taken out of Parkland College in Champaign, Illinois, Kiermaier has now produced a 9.5 WAR in fewer than two full seasons’ worth of plate appearances. His projection for the 2016 campaign (521 PA, 4.2 zWAR) calls for roughly a repeat of the same.

After Kiermaier, the 2016 iteration of the club appears to be an exercise in uninspiring competence. Desmond Jennings is roughly average. Logan Forsythe and Brad Miller are roughly average. Whoever’s platooning in right field is likely to provide a roughly average platoon. The club’s weaknesses are at designated hitter and first base. Neither Logan Morrison (445 PA, 0.0 zWAR) nor James Loney (498 PA, 0.0 zWAR) appear well-equipped to benefit the team at either position.

Read the rest of this entry »


2016 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Only three batters last year recorded both 300-plus plate appearances and also a .300 isolated-power figure: Chris Davis (670 PA, .300 ISO), Bryce Harper (654 PA, .319 ISO), and Giancarlo Stanton (318 PA, .341 ISO). That’s merely one of the many possible ways to state an obvious thing — namely, that the Marlins’ right fielder is among the most impressive power hitters in the league. What else that set of criteria reveals, however, is that Stanton was limited by injury. Because if the plate-appearance threshold were raised to 319, his name would disappear.

In his five years as a regular, Stanton has averaged 512 plate appearances per season. Not the worst case scenario, certainly, but not ideal — and the results have been fantastic, regardless. If his projection (499 PA, 4.9 zWAR) seems a bit light relative to his prodigious talents, however, it’s the result of a somewhat modest plate-appearance forecast.

Examining Miami’s field players as a whole, one finds a group well equipped to produce wins at an average rate in 2016, with Dee Gordon (606 PA, 2.6 zWAR), Martin Prado (578 PA, 2.6 zWAR), and Christian Yelich (596 PA, 3.2 zWAR) all complementing Stanton. First base, meanwhile, appears to be the most immediate area of concern: even in a platoon, Justin Bour (501 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and Chris Johnson (443 PA, 0.2 zWAR) might exhibit some difficulty in separating themselves from replacement level.

Read the rest of this entry »


Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Other clubs: Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Indians, Orioles, Reds, Red Sox, White Sox.

The Rockies’ system is a long list of potential major league contributors, topped by nearly a full team of 50+ overall grade prospects. They haven’t had the best luck developing young pitchers, but Jeff Hoffman and Jon Gray give them a chance at building a cost-effective pitching staff in the near future as they try to retool, while a stable of younger hurlers may arrive in three to four years. I don’t see any huge surprises on this list for people, though having Brendan Rodgers number one may be debatable. Gray gets bumped down a bit for command concerns, though obviously his upside is apparent. Catcher Dom Nunez and starting pitcher Peter Lambert may be higher on this list than you will hear elsewhere, and Carlos Estevez‘ relief potential bumps him into the 50-grade territory for me.

Read the rest of this entry »