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An Early Look at wOBA Differential

The season is still only three weeks old, and basically anything can happen over the course of 20 baseball games. The Brewers aren’t the best team in baseball, the D’Backs aren’t the worst, and Jesse Chavez isn’t going to win the Cy Young Award. But, at the same time, the most recent data is also the most informative data, and there are some numbers that can have meaning quicker than others. While you shouldn’t care too much about a team’s Win-Loss record on April 21st, we can boil down early season team performance into numbers that a bit more heavily represented by skill rather than randomness.

One of my favorite ways to look at team performance is wOBA differential. It’s basically the same concept as run differential, but strips away the heavy factor that sequencing can have on runs scored and runs allowed. The order of events matters in the outcome of past results, but holds little predictive value, and by looking at non-sequenced results, we can get a better idea of how a team has performed than if we also introduce the timing of those events into the mix.

wOBA differential isn’t perfect, of course; it doesn’t include baserunning, for one, and teams can move the needle a little bit by how often their baserunners advance, but that portion of the game is fairly small relative to everything else. By and large, wOBA differential gives you a pretty good idea of how teams have played thus far. So, let’s get to the numbers.

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Game Log Feature: Totals!

The game log section on the player pages will now give you an extra line of data that displays the totals for the dates you selected.

leaderboard_totals

For instance, if you wanted to see all of Mike Trout’s games since September 1st, 2013, you’d see he’s had a wRC+ of 172 over that same time period.

This feature is available for the minor league game logs too.


Sunday Notes: Blue Jays, Orioles, Mets, SABR BioProject

Mitch Nay is one of the top prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, the 20-year-old third baseman combines raw power and an advanced approach. His grandfather deserves a lot of the credit.

Nay grew up learning the game from Lou Klimchock. A journeyman infielder who spent parts of 12 seasons in the big leagues, Klimchock played for five teams and counts multiple Hall of Famers among his former teammates. He’s passed along much of what he knows to his grandson.

“He’s been a big influence on me,” said Nay, who is playing with the low-A Lansing Lugnuts. “He’s helped with instructional stuff, like hitting and throwing. He’s pretty much been my teacher since a young age.

“My grandpa is also the president of the Arizona Major League alumni, so I’ve been able to hang out with a lot of big names – historical figures in baseball – like Brooks Robinson and Bob Feller. I’ve been around the game my whole life, which makes being in pro ball almost second-nature.”

Nay is already older than his grandfather was when he debuted with the Kansas City Athletics at the end of the 1958 season.

“He played his first game at age 18,” explained Nay. “Last year when Jurickson Profar came up and hit a lead-off home run they were talking about the youngest guys ever to do that. My grandpa was on the list.”

Can he imagine what it would be like to play in the big leagues at such a young age?

“There’s so much I need to learn before that time comes,” admitted Nay. “It would definitely be a challenge, but my grandpa has talked to me about what it’s like. He’s told me to visualize it, to think of myself in some of these guys’ shoes. He says stuff like, ‘Imagine yourself getting on a plane in the middle of the night, going to a new city and waking up there to play a game.’”

Surprisingly, Klimchock practiced visualization in the 1960s. Less surprising is that his grandson does so now.

“When he played, he used to be on deck visualizing himself hitting a line drive over the shortstop’s head,” said Nay. “He says your mind doesn’t know the difference from what your body does. I do that sometimes too. If I’m facing a sinkerballer, I’ll visualize him getting it up and me hitting it in the gap.”

Nay describes his hitting approach as looking for a pitch that’s middle to middle-away, focusing on the right-center field gap, and having a good two-strike approach. You can probably guess where that comes from.

“My grandfather’s approach was pretty simple,” said Nay. “It was basically to stay up the middle and have a good two-strike approach. Growing up, he’d always talk to me about the importance of not giving away at bats. Don’t strike out; put the ball in play. I’ve come to realize you can sometimes hit the ball farther with two strikes, because your approach is better. You can still have power with two strikes.”

Klimchock has taught his grandson more than approach. He’s taught him about the past.

“He’s talked about facing pitchers like Don Drysdale,” said Nay “He’s told me about guys he played with, like Roger Maris and Hank Aaron. I’ve learned a lot about baseball history from him. He even played for a few teams that don’t exist anymore.”

——

Here is a description of the home run Klimchock hit as an 18-year-old, excerpted with permission from the SABR BioProject. It was written by Chuck Johnson.

“When he stepped to the plate as the leadoff hitter for the Kansas City Athletics on the final day of the 1958 season, 18-year-old second baseman Lou Klimchock was looking for his first major-league hit, not to make modern major-league history. Playing in just his second major-league game, Klimchock achieved both. On the mound that day for the homestanding Chicago White Sox was 19-year-old Stover McIlwain. A tall, lanky right-hander, McIlwain was also making his second major-league appearance, and, as fate would have it, his last. Klimchock picked out a McIlwain offering he liked and drove the pitch into the Comiskey Park right-field stands for his first major-league hit and home run. It was the first time in modern major-league history that a teenager had homered off a teenager.”

For those of you unfamiliar with the Baseball Biography Project, it is an invaluable and rapidly-growing resource. The Society for American Baseball Research [SABR] champions the game’s rich history, and the BioProject committee, headed by Mark Armour, is an ambitious part of those efforts. A primary goal is to publish a full-life biography of every major league player in history. Klimchock’s is one of 2,770 that have been completed as of this date.

According to Armour, it took close to six years to reach 1,000 bios, and another 3.5 years to get to 2,000. At its current pace the third 1,000 will take just over two years. The committee is currently producing 400-450 biographies annually, which is roughly twice the rate that new major league players are debuting. If you’re interested in becoming involved, please contact  bioassign@sabr.org.

——

Harry Chiti is still awaiting his biography. It needs to be written. A catcher for four teams from 1950-1962, Chiti broke into the big leagues with the Cubs as a 17-year-old bonus baby. His biggest claim to fame is that he was the first player ever traded for himself.

His son, Dom Chiti, was a minor league pitcher for six seasons before becoming a coach, scout and special assistant. He now serves as the Orioles bullpen coach. I asked Dom about his late father.

“My father was a huge influence on my baseball life,” said Dom. “I was probably more advanced mentally because of him. I learned to change speeds at an earlier age than most guys. He would talk about the game inside the game, like the cat-and-mouse that happens between pitchers and hitters.

“He’d relate stories about players and how to pitch to them. Ted Williams was one. He said Ted Williams used to walk to home plate and say ‘If you can throw three balls on the outside corner you can have my strikeout, but don’t miss.’ He also told me how he’d be going to catch a ball – it was right there – and Ted would take it right out of his glove. His bat speed was that ridiculous.”

In April 1962, the fledgling New York Mets acquired Chiti from the Indians. Two months later he was sent back to Cleveland.

“When he got traded for himself it was actually a cash deal,” said Dom. “I don’t know how many people know this, but the money went to pay for the Chief Wahoo that went up in right field at the old ballpark. That’s what the money was used for. My dad wasn’t so much traded for himself as he was traded for a sign.”

——

Many players excelled in multiple sports before settling on baseball. Orioles outfielder David Lough played two in college and could have played a third. His primary youth sport is the one he gave up first.

“I loved soccer,” said Lough, who came of age in Akron, Ohio. “I played my whole life. It was my No. 1 go-to sport in high school, and I received a lot of D-I offers, but I kind of grew out of it. I never grew out of baseball. I’ve loved being on the diamond from the time I was a little kid playing tee ball. I knew in college it was what I wanted to keep playing.”

Football replaced soccer as Lough’s second sport, despite him having played it only one year in high school.

“My senior year, I grew a real liking for football,” said the speedy 5-foot-10, 175-pound fly-chaser. “I ended up going to college to play both football and baseball. I went to Mercyhurst, a Division-II school in Erie PA, and was a receiver and kick returner. We were in the [Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference] when I played, with schools like Grand Valley State. It was good quality football.

“I started putting it together my junior year — I had a couple of touchdowns – but my first few years of college football were a real growing period. In high school, I’d go to the huddle and our quarterback would tell me what to run. I didn’t know the plays. I would go from football practice to soccer practice, and would have soccer games on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. On Friday I’d have a football game. I was a busy guy and missed a ton of practice time, mostly because of soccer.”

——

Tommy Hunter excelled in a less-traditional sport. The Indianapolis native was a two-time judo champion.

“I was young when I did judo, only 10-12 years old,” said Hunter “I didn’t have any special moves, or anything like that, but I was pretty good. I won the Junior Olympics in judo. It’s basically a national tournament, so while it’s not something you’d call prestigious, it was pretty big for me.”

The Orioles closer is 6-foot-3, 260 pounds. I asked how big he was as a preteen judo champion.

“I wasn’t big when I was 12,” said Hunter. “I wasn’t big until I was a sophomore in high school. I was a normal kid. I wasn’t abnormal.”

My response was, “Unlike now?”

“You think I’m abnormal?” answered the affable-but-large hurler. “Wow. That’s pretty [bleeped] up. But that’s alright. You’re entitled to your opinion. I think I’m pretty [bleeping] normal.”

His home state of Indiana is a hoops hotbed. What about basketball?

“I played in high school, but I wasn’t very good,” said Hunter, who wryly added “I was a white kid and played the token minutes. I kept the GPA up for the team.”

——

Matt Bowman will elevate the GPA on most teams he plays for. The New York Mets pitching prospect majored in economics at Princeton University. Pro ball hasn’t been a steep learning curve for the 2012 draft pick. Last year he went 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA between low-A Savannah and high-A St. Lucie. This season he’s allowed just one run in 12 innings at Double-A Binghamton.

Bowman has a future in a big league front office when his playing days are over. The 22-year-old right-hander’s senior thesis had general manager written all over it.

“It looked into how much a win is worth in free agency,” said Bowman. “I looked into projected wins and what a team thinks they’re paying for a win as opposed to what they end up paying for a win. Why is there a discrepancy between the two? I looked at players and evaluated them basically as stocks paying off dividends in the form of WAR. What is their variance season to season, and based on that, what value do they hold?”

I asked him if any other players in the Mets’ organization speak the same saber-economic language.

“Jeff Reynolds, who is in St. Lucie right now, graduated from Harvard,” said Bowman. “I spoke to him a little bit about it. There are certainly players who like to play GM and will talk about who’d they’d want to acquire in free agency, but I think the numbers aspect might make me a little unique.”

Bowman’s approach to his own stats is more mainstream.

“When it comes to my personal experience, I’m the complete opposite,” admitted Bowman. “As a starter, I think the most important stat is innings pitched. It’s the old-school opinion that starting pitchers should be workhorses and eat up a lot of innings. I’m aware if certain other stats are good or bad, like my strikeouts-to-walks ratio, but I mostly try to avoid them. Getting caught up in stats can lead to complacency, or getting a little too involved if things are going poorly.”

Bowman had eye-popping numbers in this last start. Pitching against New Hampshire, he allowed four hits over seven scoreless innings with one walk and 11 strikeouts. Preparation played a big role in his overpowering outing.

“I got to scout them in the stands a few days before,” explained Bowman. “I talked to Kevin Plawecki, my catcher, and we came up with a game plan. I basically told him what I wanted to do with each hitter and asked him to remember it. Once I’m on the mound, I don’t like thinking about that. Whatever he put down, I threw. My fastball and slider were working and I sprinkled in my other pitches as well.”

The Princeton product keeps notes on batters he faces, but not on himself.

“I feel that breaking down your personal performance too much can be detrimental,” opined Bowman. “There’s a feel to pitching and the simplest numbers are the most important. How deep did you go into the game and did you put up a zero? If you’re trying to do more than that, I think you’re trying to be a pitcher you’re not.”


The Rise of the Offensive Catcher

You probably are well aware that offensive levels in baseball have collapsed over the last few years. We’re well past the “Year of the Pitcher” and are now at a point where run scoring is as scarce as it was back in the 1970s. It seems like no one can hit anymore, or at least, no more than one or two guys per team anyway. For various reasons, the recent trends in baseball have almost all gone in favor of the pitchers.

But not quite all. There is one place in baseball where offense is actually trending upwards, and that trend is behind the plate.

Last March, Mark Smith wrote about the improved offensive levels of catchers in recent years, but with another year of data and our new by-position split leaderboards, I think it’s worth pointing this out again. Especially because, for the first few weeks of 2014 at least, the trend seems to only be accelerating.

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Why Would A Pitcher Pitch Against The Shift?

On April 10 in an outing against the Toronto Blue Jays, Dallas Keuchel was pitching Jose Bautista outside in the fourth inning.

That much isn’t really surprising, because since September of 2009, Bautista has done the bulk of his damage by pulling the ball. What was curious to me, however, was that Keuchel was pitching Bautista well outside despite the fact that the Astros defense was employing a heavy shift. It seemed counterintuitive, since I had assumed – though I hadn’t previously given it much thought – that a pitcher would be best served by pitching into a shift and giving the batter something he’s more likely to pull.

As it turns out, Keuchel was probably using the proper approach.
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Masahiro Tanaka’s Non-Secret Weapon

Two things, both from Wednesday. Before the first game of a Yankees/Cubs doubleheader, the YES Network broadcast was profiling scheduled starter Masahiro Tanaka. They, of course, had very positive things to say, and at one point, Al Leiter remarked, “what I like is that he’s attacking the zone.” No nibbling, with that guy. Aggressive, polished rookie.

Later, Wednesday night, I got an email from Dave Cameron, asking if hitters should just stand there with their bats on their shoulders, since Tanaka doesn’t throw strikes. Why not force him to come into the zone? Is he even able to come into the zone often enough?

Two analyses by two analysts of one pitcher on one day, arriving at basically opposite conclusions. Leiter said Tanaka attacks the zone. Dave said Tanaka doesn’t attack the zone. What’s going on here? It’s time to gush some more about Masahiro Tanaka.

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The A’s Low-Risk, Reasonably High-Reward Rotation

There are a couple of very broad ways for pitchers to keep the opposition off of the scoreboard. One is to impose your will, maximizing K’s and minimizing BB’s – in most cases, pitchers excelling in those areas possess obvious, in-your-face tools and skills that are very easy to see. The other way is much more subtle – to manage contact, optimizing the batted-ball mix allowed and minimizing the authority with which the ball is impacted. Sometimes, pitchers more skilled in this area fly beneath the radar a bit compared to their more dominant counterparts. If you can accomplish both, however, you’ve got something. Based on the very early returns of the 2014 season, the Oakland A’s might have something. Read the rest of this entry »


The Strike Zone is (Still) Getting More Consistent

Not long ago, I pointed out a couple hilarious game strike zones called by Sean Barber and Clint Fagan. Both umpires called balls on pitches well within the usual zone, and both umpires called strikes on pitches somewhere around the shins. They were awful displays of umpire judgment, but after that, Barber called a much better zone in his next game, and far more importantly, both Barber and Fagan are Triple-A umpires and not regular major-league umpires. The regulars are better than the prospects, just like we see with the players.

And about those regulars — I’ve pointed out in the past that they seemed to be calling more consistent strike zones. One of the neat things about a post like that is that it can be updated, and now that we’ve got a few hundred games finished in 2014, I come bearing some further encouraging news.

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Matt Adams Cares Not For Your Shift

The shift! It’s the hot new thing, even if it’s not necessarily a new thing. (There’s evidence Ted Williams had to deal with it decades ago.) Some teams use it a lot, and some not so much, but it’s impossible to argue that it hasn’t had an increasing impact on the game over the last few years. It may not be the only reason that major leaguers have a .212 BABIP and .230 wOBA on ground balls so far this year as opposed to .222 and .239, respectively, in 2007 (and decreasing steadily since), but it’s certainly a part of it. We are all but certain to see more shifts across the sport in 2014 than we ever have before. “Hit ’em where they ain’t,” Wee Willie Keeler was purported to have said over a century ago, and it’s good advice. The only problem is, where they are — or ain’t — is changing.

What’s interesting, then, is not so much about which teams employ the shift, but how batters react to it. Thanks to the work of Jeff Zimmerman at The Hardball Times earlier this year, we’re able to get a look at how certain batters hit in 2013 with the shift both on and off, and the results were often more extreme than expected. (Ryan Howard’s .533 BABIP without the shift as compared to .312 with it stand out immediately.) It stands to reason that if you were one of the hitters on the list with a large split between being shifted and not, you should expect to see it even more this season.

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The Potentially Historic Comeback of Michael Pineda

The big righthander reared back and fired one last time, and Dodger catcher John Roseboro popped it up to shortstop Luis Aparicio to cap a 6-0, four-hit complete-game shutout, giving the Orioles a 2-0 lead in the 1966 World Series that they would go on to sweep. It was an eclectic Series game to be sure – it marked Sandy Koufax‘ last major league appearance, and was marked – you might say defaced – by an amazing six Dodger errors, including an incredible three by center fielder Willie Davis. Perhaps most notable, however, was the identity of the pitcher who tossed the shutout.

At age 20, Jim Palmer had now truly arrived, following up a 15-win regular season with this heroic effort. The future could not appear brighter for a kid who, unbeknownst to anyone at the time, would pitch all of 49 major league innings over the next two seasons due to a serious shoulder injury. Why is any of this relevant? Because this is as close as anything in baseball history to a successful precedent for the comeback currently being attempted by the Yankees’ Michael Pineda. Read the rest of this entry »