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A One-Start Comp for Masahiro Tanaka

The first batter Masahiro Tanaka ever faced in a regular-season game in the majors hit a home run. On Tanaka’s third-ever pitch, Melky Cabrera blasted Tanaka’s signature splitter, and just that quickly was the fairy tale smashed. There would be no season-opening whiff or shutout, and Tanaka might’ve figured the home run would stick with him for the length of his career. And that much is true, in that the game was documented, and Cabrera’s homer is something people will always be able to look up. But no one thinks of Yu Darvish and remembers that his career began with a four-pitch walk of Chone Figgins. No one thinks of Daisuke Matsuzaka and remembers that his career began with a single by David DeJesus. No one thinks of Stephen Strasburg and remembers that his career began with a 2-and-0 line drive by Andrew McCutchen. People will remember Tanaka for however Tanaka performs overall, and, one start in, it seems there’s an awful lot to like.

Which should surprise absolutely no one. Tanaka isn’t just a rookie — he’s a rookie recently given a nine-figure contract. Against the Jays, he threw two-thirds of his pitches for strikes. He kept the ball on the ground, outside of the dinger, and he didn’t issue a single walk while he struck the hitter out eight times. It was, granted, a Jays lineup without Jose Reyes, but it was a Jays lineup with everybody else, and Tanaka needed very little time to settle in and find a dominant groove. And along the way, he happened to pitch a lot like another front-of-the-rotation American League arm.

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A Thing Maybe Worth Noting: Kenley Jansen’s Velocity

If I were to rank the months of the year in terms of difficulty of writing for FanGraphs, February would probably be #1; there’s just nothing going on in the second month of the year. The off-season is over, only the most meaningless parts of spring training are going on, teams aren’t aggressively signing long term contracts yet, and there’s just generally no real news on which to comment. February is the best month for me to take vacation, basically.

But behind February, April might be the second hardest month to write for FanGraphs, because while we have games to watch and data to look at, the overriding reminder of history that is drawing conclusions about anything this early in the season is probably foolish. Last April, Justin Upton was Babe Ruth. Last April, the Texas Rangers looked like the best team in baseball. April games matter in the standings and April performances do have some predictive value, but the samples are so small that we should rarely be willing to believe that a player has made a dramatic transformation from what they were before hand. Realistically, the conclusion of almost every data point we currently have is “That’s interesting; who knows what it actually means?”

But we still have to write about baseball in April, and we have to try and make it as interesting as we can. You don’t want to read five or six pieces a day that tell you to all the numbers right now are useless any more than we want to write them. But most of the numbers right now are useless, so we hunt for stories that are interesting and numbers that might be less useless than the rest. The overarching conclusion is still Beware Small Sample Size, but there are things that are least worth monitoring going forward. They might not continue, but if they do, it’s news. This is one of those things.

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Sunday Notes: Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox, Coping with Fear

Will Smith’s repertoire includes two- and four-seam fastballs, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. How frequently he used each of those pitches changed markedly from 2012 to 2013. Last season he threw 14% more two-seamers and 15.9% fewer four-seamers. He also threw 18.3% more sliders and 5% fewer curveballs. His changeup became mostly an afterthought.

The results were striking. In his first season as a reliever, Smith lowered his ERA from 5.32 to 3.24 and upped his K/9 from 5.92 to 11.61. He did so while pitching for the Kansas City Royals. The 24-year-old southpaw is now with the Milwaukee Brewers, having been dealt in the offseason for Norichika Aoki.

I asked Smith about pitch usage prior to Friday’s game at Fenway Park. I began by inquiring about his scant use of two-seamers in his first two outings. He pointed to small sample size, adding that he‘ll throw more as the season goes along. Fair enough. He also mentioned feel and scouting reports. Again, fair enough.

His comments about last season were similar. Regarding slider and curveball usage, Smith said “That was just what the scouting reports called for and what I felt comfortable with. [The slider] was working for me and it’s hard to go away from something that‘s working. Same thing with my curveball. Some hitters are better curveball hitters than slider hitters, and a lot of the guys I faced were better curveball hitters.”

Knowing he would have faced a higher percentage of same-sided hitters as a reliever than he did as a starter, I asked if lefty-lefty match-ups were a big part of it. He said, “Yes, I would say so.”

Following our conversation, I went back to his stat page. I knew he dominated lefties last year — .157/.204/.353 in 77 plate appearances — but I hadn’t looked at his 2012 numbers. They weren‘t what I expected. In 101 plate appearances, lefties hit him to the tune of .356/.402/.495.

A follow-up seemed in order. After the game — a 6-2 Brewers win in which Smith threw 23 pitches — I dug a little deeper. I first asked about his fastball usage that day, as I couldn’t tell from the press box if he was throwing two- or four-seamers. “I threw more twos today,” he told me. Why? “Mostly scouting reports.“

According to PITCHf/x, Smith threw an equal number of two- and four-seamers on Friday, nine of each. He also threw three curveballs and two sliders.

Last year he utilized his slider nearly 30 percent of the time. Opposing batters hit .093 against it.

Scouting reports or feel? I didn’t press Smith on yesterday’s pitch selection, but I did regarding 2012 and 2013. Given the difference in results, both pitch-specific and overall, was he maybe downplaying feel? Was his slider simply his best pitch?

“It was more feel last year,” admitted Smith. “I didn’t have as much confidence with the slider [in 2012]. It was still kind of a new pitch for me, so I was trying to get used to it.”

His best pitch in 2014? We’re only a week into the season, so it’s too early to tell. But if Smith has the same feel for his slider as a year ago, expect him to be very good out of the Brewers’ bullpen.

——

Expectations are high for Maikel Franco. The 21-year-old third baseman is the top-rated prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies organization. Last year he hit .320/.356/.569, with 31 home runs, between high-A Clearwater and Double-A Reading. He’s beginning this season with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

No one questions Franco’s bat speed or power. Both are plus-plus. There are, however, some concerns about his plate discipline. The free-swinging Dominican walked 30 times last year in 581 plate appearances.

I asked Franco if he’s too aggressive at the plate.

“Sometimes, yeah,” responded Franco. “Sometimes I feel like I’m too aggressive, but when that happens, I say to myself, ‘Just keep it nice and easy, he’ll come to you. Just be ready for everything.’ I’ve been here five years now. Coming to the USA, they said ‘Do it like you do.’ When I go out there, I try to see the ball good, swing, and try to make good contact.”

Franco does make contact. He fanned just 70 times last year. According to Lehigh Valley coach Mickey Morandini, the youngster has made great strides in the plate discipline department, despite his aggressive ways.

“I’ve really seen him grow,” said Morandini, who managed Franco in A ball. ““He wants to swing the bat, but his recognition of breaking balls is much better now. He used to swing at a lot of balls out of the zone, and he‘s learned how to lay off some of those pitches. One thing he does better than anyone I’ve seen in his age group is he’ll swing at a pitch out of the zone, and when he gets that pitch again, he won’t swing at it.”

IronPigs manager Dave Brundage has less experience working with Franco, but likes what he sees.

“What he mostly needs is experience,” said Brundage. “He has great hands, both offensively and defensively. He just needs to shorten things up a little bit and not try to do too much. That’s typical for a young player. They get to big league camp for the first time, like he did this year, and want to show everybody all at once what they can do. They maybe swing a little harder, wanting the ball to farther. But Maikel has the complete package. It’s just a matter of tightening things up, making sure his mechanics are sound and he’s staying within himself.”

In batting practice, Franco’s focus is all about discipline. Once the game starts, he goes back to what comes naturally.

“In the cage, I hit to the opposite field,” explained Franco. “Center field, right field, center field, right field. That’s what I’m thinking about in BP, But when I go out there [in the game], I know I can just throw my hands, so I don‘t think about anything. It’s just see the ball, hit the ball hard.”

——

Will Middlebrooks came up through the Red Sox system with a profile similar to Franco‘s. A power-hitting third baseman, he was the team’s top prospect despite plate discipline issues. To some extent, they’re still there. Middlebrooks has drawn 34 free passes in 675 big-league at bats. He also has 33 home runs and projects to hit many more.

Carlos Gomez is likewise not shy about letting it fly. His power has emerged in recent seasons — he went deep 24 times last year — but the Milwaukee Brewers outfielder has walked only 146 times in 2,737 plate appearances.

I asked Middlebrooks and Gomez how Franco might best be served going forward. Based on their own experiences, should the young Phillies’ prospect begin taking more pitches, or should he stick with what’s gotten him this far?

“I don’t know him, so I can only speak for myself, but I got better by figuring out my swing and figuring out my plan,” said Middlebrooks. “In the minor leagues, I felt like a lot of guys would try to get ahead with heaters, so I’d be up there hacking at heaters right from the first pitch. Instead of looking at one part of the plate, I’d see a heater and whether it was inner third or outer third, I’d hack at it. I hadn’t learned to zone guys up. Now I’ll take that pitch.”

I asked him if it’s easier to be patient if you’re allowed to be yourself at the plate. In other words, is it easier to be disciplined if you aren’t thinking about being disciplined?

“I think that’s true,” said Middlebrooks. “I feel if you’re told to be disciplined, you get passive. I dealt with that some. I was trying to be more disciplined, trying to see more pitches, and ended taking good pitches to hit. I was up there almost predetermined, like “I’m going to take here.’ I think you need to learn your zone and just be yourself.”

Gomez had a similar take.

“It’s hard to tell what he should do, because I don‘t know him,” said Gomez. “But if he’s got power… not everybody is the same. What makes me do better at the plate is when I swing aggressive and hard. I dominate when I swing at a ball I can dominate, not when I chase pitches. But I’m aggressive, so I look for a pitch I can drive out of the ballpark. I tried to be different, but it didn’t work. In the last year and a half, I’ve just been me.

“When I was younger, I wasn’t really told to see more pitches. It was more to hit the ball on the ground and run. When I first came up, they saw me as a speed guy, not a power hitter. Now I’m trying to hit a high line drive to the middle of the field, or a home run. They’re just letting me be myself. I think that‘s what you have to be.”

——

Players aren’t always themselves when they step between the white lines. Over the course of a long season, there are going to be times you‘re nowhere close to 100 percent. The issue isn’t always physical. It can also be mental, and sometimes it‘s not simple.

Mike Nickeas has been through the grind. Currently playing for Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bison, the 31-year-old catcher is in his 11th professional season. Nickeas knows you occasionally have to fight demons in order to survive.

“I’ve seen guys get in the batter’s box and be tight,” said Nickeas. “It’s happened to me as well. You feel anxiety, and that hinders your performance. I’ve played with guys who have had to go on medication because they were mentally crippling themselves. I’ve also seen guys who aren’t as talented, yet they’re the best players on the field because their minds tell them they are. The psyche is really powerful. You can tell yourself anything you want, but if it’s not something you truly believe in your subconscious, it’s not going to do anything for you.

“Fear exists in baseball, and how you deal with it is personal. To each player it’s a different thing. If anyone on this field tells you he’s never experienced fear, whether it’s fear of failure, fear of success, fear of being hurt, he’s lying. And fear drives anxiety. You need to find ways to cope with that.”

——

J.A. Happ had to cope with fear last season. The Blue Jays left-hander was taken from the field on a stretcher after being hit in the head by a line drive in early May. He didn’t return to the mound until August. Following his return, I asked him about the mental demons Nickeas talked about.

“At this level, everybody has the physical tools to be successful, so the mental part of it is everything,” said Happ. “I’ve obviously had ups and downs with that. You’ve had success before, but for whatever reason, doubt creeps in and your confidence level isn’t where it needs to be.

“My experience [of getting by the line drive] was that I was just anxious to get back out there. I wasn’t real concerned about getting hit again. If I’d have thought about that, I think it would have crippled me as far as being able to execute and finish pitches.

“Does fear exist? It’s part of the game, whether it‘s fear of getting hurt or fear of giving up the big hit. Baseball humbles people. As far as throwing a pitch and giving up a big hit, it happens and you have to move on. You realize it’s not the end-all and be-all, but at the time it’s hard to convince yourself of that. Everybody wants to succeed. But in the grand scheme of things, there are more important things in life.”


The Games are Already Mattering

One of my favorite tools we have here is our Playoff Odds page. I used to make frequent use of Cool Standings, and I keep track of hockey playoff odds at Sports Club Stats. I like looking at the playoff odds because they give the clearest sense of where things stand, and in theory, the whole point is getting to October, so why not monitor how likely that is in real time? Of course, we’re not just in it to see the playoffs — if that were the case, most baseball fans would be pissed off all the time, if they’d be fans at all — but getting to the postseason is at the core of most of what we talk about. Why do we care about player analysis? Good players make teams better. Better teams are more likely to go to the playoffs and win the World Series. And so forth.

Eventually, on our Playoff Odds page, you’ll be able to click through and see how the odds have changed over time. That hasn’t rolled out yet, though, nor are people probably even thinking about it in the first week of April. The season is so new we’re all still trying to find our baseball-fan footing, and it feels like the whole thing is in front of us. Most of it is, to be sure, but what’s already happened counts. And it turns out, what’s already happened for a few teams is pretty significant.

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Mark Buehrle’s Perfect Imperfect Game

The fastest pitch Mark Buehrle threw Wednesday was just shy of 84 miles per hour. For Buehrle, in early April, that’s not out of the ordinary, and he’s long been a guy who’s managed to make it work in the low- to mid-80s. What was a little more out of the ordinary was everything else. Armed with his usual stuff, Buehrle struck out 11 of 30 Tampa Bay batters. He was a fastball away from completing a shutout, and Buehrle himself was taken by surprise by what he was able to do.

Only one other time in his extraordinary career has Buehrle’s strikeout total reached double digits. He whiffed a dozen Mariners all the way back in April 2005, in a game that lasted all of 99 minutes. So, this was Buehrle’s second-highest strikeout total ever. Yet he generated just a dozen swings and misses. That’s a high number, but not as high as the strikeouts would suggest. In 28 career starts, Buehrle has missed more than 12 bats. In another 14, he’s missed exactly 12 bats. Buehrle was unusually unhittable without being unusually unhittable, and the reason for that is the very reason for Buehrle’s continued success in the bigs.

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Mike Trout, When It’s All Said And Done

The week leading up to Opening Day 2014 turned out to be quite historic, with the clear two best players in the game locked into long-term contracts guaranteeing them nearly a cool half-billion. Obviously, the prognosis for the respective long-term efficacy of the two deals varies dramatically, with Cabrera’s extension locking up his age 33-40 seasons, compared to Trout’s doing the same to his age 23-28 campaigns. This week, let’s take a step back and put these two greats into some sort of historical perspective, then use that perspective to research their aging curves in order make some educated judgments regarding the Tigers’ and Angels’ investments. Today, let’s look at Mike Trout. Read the rest of this entry »


The Top 50 Prospects for 2014 by Projected WAR

Note: because he (a) assembled the following list by hand and also (b) is a careless idiot, the author neglected some names from the first version of this post. Do not hesitate to raise concerns about the absence of a notable prospect.

What follows is an attempt to identify, using a nearly sound methodology, the rookie-eligible players* who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2014 (regardless of whether they actually receive the opportunity to do so). What it is not is an attempt to replace the work done by prospect analysts who assemble similar lists by means of “knowledge” and “skill.” Unlike their lists, no attempt has been made here to account for future value.

*In this case, defined as any player who’s recorded fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings — which is to say, there’s been no attempt to identify each player’s time spent on the active roster, on account of that’s a super tedious endeavor.

To assemble the list, what I’ve done first is to calculate prorated WAR figures for all players for whom either the Steamer or ZiPS projection systems have produced a forecast. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce approximately a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

All figures published below are averaged 2014 projections produced by Steamer and ZiPS, except in those cases (represented by an asterisk*) where only Steamer has produced a projection. Players eligible for the list either (a) enter their age-26 season or lower in 2014 or, alternatively, (b) were signed as international free agents this offseason.

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FanGraphs Game Odds!

For every game this year we’ll be projecting the odds of each team winning on our live scoreboard. We’ve also added an extra experimental line on live Win Probability graphs that adjusts for the newly calculated game odds.

To calculate these game odds we’re doing the following:

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Stephen Strasburg and Early Season Velocities

With the real Opening Day behind us — sorry Astros and Yankees, you’re just late — we now have real 2014 data from almost every team on the leaderboards. Of course, besides answering trivia questions, we all know that there’s really nothing insightful to be learned from one day’s performance, and we’re not going to find useful information to be analyzed there until the samples get a lot bigger.

But there are some numbers that became useful in very short order. Strikeout rate, for instance, only has to be regressed 50% to the mean at a much lower number of batters faced than most other pitching metrics, and big changes in K% over even a few starts can prove somewhat meaningful. It’s hard to fluke your way into getting a bunch of Major League hitters to swing through your pitches, and if you’re consistently throwing pitches by people, it’s a pretty good sign for the future.

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Miguel Cabrera, When It’s All Said And Done

The week leading up to Opening Day 2014 turned out to be quite historic, with the clear two best players in the game locked into long-term contracts guaranteeing them nearly a cool half-billion. Obviously, the prognosis for the respective long-term efficacy of the two deals varies dramatically, with Cabrera’s extension locking up his age 33-40 seasons, compared to Trout’s doing the same to his age 23-28 campaigns. This week, let’s take a step back and put these two greats into some sort of historical perspective, then use that perspective to research their aging curves in order make some educated judgments regarding the Tigers’ and Angels’ investments. Today, let’s look at Miguel Cabrera. Read the rest of this entry »