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Major League Baseball’s attempts to narrow the gap between franchises has resulted in an incentive system. While other leagues have salary caps and floors, Major League Baseball has instituted a system of luxury taxes (to bring down the highest payrolls) and revenue sharing (to bring up the lowest ones). As I noted in a piece for ESPN The Magazine this spring, the system has been pretty effective too, as we are currently experiencing an age of parity unlike any time in MLB history.

However, incentives don’t work in every situation. You can carrot-and-stick your way to success on a broad level while still having some individuals fall through the cracks. Overall, I think MLB’s financial system is mostly as effective at promoting competitive balance as a hard salary cap would be, but that doesn’t mean that the system doesn’t have some flaws. And, with the Ricky Nolasco trade, the Miami Marlins are shining a bright light on the system’s flaws once again.

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Using veteran right-hander Ricky Nolasco as bait, the Miami Marlins have successfully hooked three hard-throwing arms. The Fish have acquired Angel Sanchez, Josh Wall and Steve Ames, while the two clubs also exchanged international signing dollars, and you can read more about the big league portion of the deal by checking out Jeff Sullivan’s offering from the weekend.

This deal can be best categorized as quantity over quality, in terms of the prospects heading to the state of Florida. Although all three young, right-handed hurlers can hit the low-to-mid 90s with their fastballs, their ceilings are tempered by command issues and lack of consistent secondary stuff. Despite having a weaker minor league system in terms of depth, none of the three arms appeared on my pre-season Top 15 prospects list for the Dodgers. The prospects have never appeared on any FanGraphs top prospects lists over the past four seasons, although Sanchez was highlighted as a potential sleeper on my pre-2012 Dodgers Top 15 prospects compilation.

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After a hiatus, the FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch is back and I want to thank everyone who asked about its whereabouts and expressed an interest in seeing it return. Your wish is my command…

Josh Phegley, C, Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox dumped light-hitting backup catcher Hector Gimenez on Thursday. In his place, the organization promoted rookie backstop Josh Phegley — the 38th overall selection from the 2009 amateur draft. The Indiana University alum reached Double-A in his first full pro season but his meteoric rise was interrupted by a serious medical condition, which threaten to end his playing career and affect his way of life. For more on that, check out this piece by MLB.com’s Scott Merkin from 2010. Luckily for Phegley, he’s back and — although it took some time for him to get back into playing shape — finally realizing the potential that caused me to rank him as the organization’s eighth-best prospect as recently as pre-2011.

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From 1983-1988, Pat Tabler was a good hitter on some not-so-good Cleveland Indians teams. Bouncing between the outfield and the infield corners, he hit .294/.356/.408. Overall, “Tabby” was a career .282 hitter in 12 big-league seasons. He currently serves as a TV analyst for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Tabler reminisced about his time in Cleveland — including notable brawls and off-the-wall teammates — on a recent visit to Fenway Park.

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Tabler on bench-clearing brawls: “In 1986, we were playing the A’s, who we always had hard-fought games with. Pat Corrales was our manager and he thought Dave Stewart was throwing at one of our guys. He was barking at him and Stew said, ‘Come on out here.’ Corrales did. They met at the first base line and went after each other. Both of them had belts in karate. Corrales went to dropkick, and missed, and Stew smoked him. It was on after that. It was a good fight.

“Another time, against the Royals, Jamie Quirk hit a home run against us. Next time up, Sammy Stewart hit him with a pitch and broke his hand. The following night, with Ken Schrom pitching, Willie Wilson hit a fly ball to center. Read the rest of this entry »

Homer Bailey threw a no-hitter last night, putting him in the same group as a lot of other people. It was actually his second no-hitter, putting him in a much smaller group of guys who have done it twice. This post is not really about Homer Bailey’s no-hitter — I’m working on one of those too, but it’s a little more research intensive — but about the fact that Homer Bailey shouldn’t have needed to throw another no-hitter to get some attention. Because, even before last night, Homer Bailey was pitching like an ace.

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Well friends, we are now approaching that time of year where a significant drop in a pitcher’s velocity passes the 50% threshold in terms of signaling that they will finish the year down at least one full mph.

The table above breaks out the percent of pitchers who experience at least a 1 mph drop in their four-seam fastball velocity in a month relative to that same month a year ago and who also went on to finish the season down a full 1 mph. It also shows the relative risk — meaning, the increased likelihood that a pitcher will experience a true velocity loss at season’s end when compared to those pitchers that didn’t lose 1 mph in that month.

For example, pitchers that lost velocity in May finished the season down a full 1 mph 47% of the time, compared to just 6% that didn’t lose 1 mph in May — an increased likelihood of 7.8.

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And the trade season is officially here. We have our first significant trade of the year on July 2nd, and the timing of this move is not a coincidence.

First, the details, per Keith Law.

Orioles acquire Scott Feldman and Tony Clevenger from the Cubs for Jake Arrietta, Pedro Strop, and int'l bonus slots.

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) July 2, 2013

For the record, he meant Steve Clevenger, but he’s a throw-in in this deal, and it’s not like Baltimore is acquiring him to unseat Matt Wieters or anything. This deal is basically Feldman for two pitchers and, in a first for MLB, pool allocation money that will allow the Cubs to be more aggressive in international free agency. We’ll get to that part of the trade in a second. First, let’s start with what the Orioles are getting in Scott Feldman.

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Imagine, for a second, that Major League Baseball had an automated strike zone, and there weren’t any bugs in the system. Imagine that the zone were specifically defined, changing consistently for each hitter, such that there couldn’t ever be any dispute. The zone would be perfect, and any given pitch would be either a definite strike or a definite ball. What you have imagined doesn’t exist. Instead, we have human brains doing everything, and sometimes human brains fall for magic tricks and infomercials. Umpires make mistakes, and because of that, any pitch could conceivably be called either way. There’s always some probability, however small, that a bad pitch might be called a strike, or that a good pitch might be called a ball. This is the way it is, and for now the rate of mistakes is low enough that we haven’t had a bloody revolt.

Because there are mistakes, there is a spectrum of mistakes, with some being the most understandable and some being the most wrong. The most wrong strike-zone call would be a call with the greatest difference between the actual call and what the call should’ve been. Imagine a fastball down the middle. If it’s taken, and called a ball, that would be a big mistake on the umpire’s part. With all this in mind, the month of June is over, so I thought we’d take a look at the month’s most wrong ball call. In part out of curiosity; in part to see what we can learn. Get ready for a little Edwin Jackson.

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In less than two weeks the best prospects from the United States will square off against the top young players from around the world at the MLB Futures Game on the all-star weekend. We’ve already taken a look at the offensive side of each exhibition team and you can read that here.

As mentioned in the previous piece, the biggest name missing from the Futures Game rotations is Jameson Taillon of the Pirates. Other absentee names that I would pay to see include Robert Stephenson of the Reds, and Aaron Sanchez of the Blue Jays. The two most surprising additions were Taylor Jordan of the Nationals (who was recently promoted to the Majors) and Chen-Chang Lee of the Indians.

Without further ado, let’s have a look at the arms that earned roster spots for this year’s Futures Game.

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In the past I’ve written on a handful of occasions about how sometimes I like to just get lost playing with Barry Bonds‘ statistics. It’s not that I didn’t appreciate Bonds’ performances at the time — it’s that I think it can take years to appreciate what he did fully. One could make it his life’s pursuit to arrive at a true understanding and appreciation of Bonds’ statistical record. There were good players, and there were great players, and then there was Barry Bonds, who occupied his own level. Sure, maybe he only got up there with the help of a biochemical jetpack, but lots of people were using the machinery and couldn’t get far off the ground. If you just want to look at numbers, Bonds’ are the best to look at, because they’re straight-up absurd.

Given what Bonds accomplished, then, one has to be careful not to be too casual about drawing comparisons. There is no more flattering offensive comp, so few will ever exceed the threshold of acceptability. But Chris Davis is, if nothing else, giving it his best try. What follows is a comparison between Davis and Bonds, and the frightening thing is I don’t think it’s a stretch. This isn’t a thing one notes lightly.

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