“It seems that the long arc of time has finally bent to my whims,” said the man, sundering the veil of silence in which he had cloistered himself. The luxurious, sovereign growth around his mouth stirred and parted once more as its owner granted himself a fleeting moment of almost rapturous satisfaction. “Those worthy of my ambitions have finally revealed themselves, and now I am compelled to do naught but grind the ambitions of my enemies into pale dust,” he intoned to the unadorned darkness, steepling his fingers in sacerdotal triumph.

At least, that’s what happened in the disordered mind of Dan Szymborski, curious for months where Lucas Giolito would end up in 2026. Since the end of the offseason, with Giolito unsigned, he’s been a source of speculation as the grand Plan B whenever a pitcher has been lost to injury, almost as if he were lying in wait. The rumors finally materialized into fact on Wednesday, as the San Diego Padres signed him to a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2027 season.

If Giolito had been waiting for a perfect fit, the team with which he’d make the biggest impact, he was correct to join the Padres. In fact, given the rumors that had popped up, I had already started writing a slightly different piece before reality quite rudely interfered; in it, I used ZiPS to estimate his effect on the playoff probabilities for each team in baseball. And the Padres just happened to rank number one in ZiPS-projected Giolito impact, with their playoff probability shifting from 55% to 65% upon his acquisition, ahead of the Cubs (+8.1%), Athletics (+7.9%), Astros (+6.9%), and Braves (+6.4%), in terms of the size of the bump.

San Diego’s rotation has been quite solid in 2026, with a 3.53 ERA in the early going, and 2.4 WAR, placing it eighth in baseball. But there were dangers that the front office could not ignore. While there’s a lot more reason to be optimistic about Randy Vásquez now that his changeup and curveball appear to have evolved into whiff machines, Nick Pivetta’s injury was still extremely unwelcome news given the team’s rather thin depth. At the moment, it looks like Pivetta’s flexor strain will not require season-ending surgery, but he isn’t going to be back anytime soon.

Pivetta’s injury left the Padres to fight with the Dodgers for the NL West title with an almost non-existent margin for error in their rotation. Before his injury, they were already banking on Walker Buehler, a big enough risk that he signed with them on a minor league deal, and Germán Márquez, who hasn’t been both healthy and good since 2021. Griffin Canning is coming back from a significant Achilles injury and hasn’t pitched since June, and there’s no firm timetable yet for Joe Musgrove’s return from the Tommy John surgery he had 18 months ago. Yu Darvish is certainly not going to be back in 2026, or possibly ever. Keeping up with the Dodgers isn’t an easy task, so there are only so many wins you can concede while you wait and hope for some good injury news on one of these fronts.

The simple truth about Giolito is that he’s clearly no longer the pitcher he was when he got Cy Young votes each year from 2019 through 2021. If he were, he probably would have signed a contract north of $150 million during the offseason, instead of waiting to be a reinforcement for a contender in need. Even so, last year represented a successful comeback season for him, as he missed 2024 with internal brace surgery to repair his UCL. Giolito previously had full Tommy John surgery immediately after being drafted in the first round by the Nationals in 2012, those elbow questions being responsible for his falling to the 16th pick.

It’s true that last season was a successful return for Giolito, but there are some important caveats to that statement. His 3.41 ERA in 26 starts was certainly solid, but dark things lurked in his peripheral numbers. His FIP was a more middling 4.17, and his 7.5 K/9 represented a 20% drop-off from his 2022-2023 numbers and a third off his peak. Statcast’s xERA was especially negative, giving him a 5.01 for 2025, and though the ZiPS version was kinder, the zERA of 4.55 was hardly top-free-agent material. The goal here isn’t to add an ace — though I can’t imagine San Diego would object if he channeled his best years — but to get an arm capable of throwing some dependably league-average innings. And I think the Padres have a good chance of getting that.

The mutual option has real value to the Padres. If Giolito performs well, he would be a natural fit for their rotation next season should Michael King exercise his an opt-out. (The exact values of Giolito’s option are not yet public.) It’s hard to gauge this kind of thing in a projection, but it’s at least nice that signing Giolito also removes him as an option should the Dodgers or another contender, such as the Cubs, find themselves in dire straits, rotation-wise.

Does signing Giolito drastically change the story of the 2026 San Diego Padres? Probably not, but he’s a supporting character, and if the Padres are able to topple the Big Blue Empire on their seventh try and take the NL West crown, he will likely play a role in writing that happy ending.

This is Ryan Blake’s first piece as a contributor for FanGraphs. He is a former newspaper reporter in the Inland Northwest and a current writer for Lookout Landing, where his work on the batter’s eye at T-Mobile Park was nominated for a 2026 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award.

A bottom-ranked pitching staff got a little deeper this weekend.

Zack Littell and the Nationals have agreed on a one-year contract, as several outlets reported Sunday. The price tag is currently unknown, though the deal includes a mutual option for 2027. Littell, 30, ranked next-to-last on our Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. As it happens, he is also next-to-last to sign (only Lucas Giolito remains available).

Littell threw a career high 186.2 innings in 2025 across 32 starts for the Rays and Reds. Only 10 pitchers threw more innings last year. His 3.81 ERA was above average among qualified starters, and his 4.2% walk rate was the best in the majors. On the other hand, his 4.88 FIP, 17.1% strikeout rate, and 1.74 HR/9 each ranked in the bottom five. It was a mix of strengths and weaknesses that, taken together, made him the 88th-most valuable starting pitcher by WAR — useful depth for most organizations. Read the rest of this entry »

After 14 seasons in the majors, Starling Marte has signed with the Royals on a one-year contract for $2 million. The 37-year-old Marte brings a proven bat to an outfield that should look at least a little bit different than it has in recent years. Between one-year deals for Marte and Lane Thomas and trades for Isaac Collins and Kameron Misner, Kansas City has now added more than an entire outfield to its roster, even though the team has two returning incumbents in Kyle Isbel and Jac Caglianone.

Marte’s career is maybe too easy to overlook; after being a core member of three Pirates playoff teams during his first three full seasons, both he and his team faded into obscurity until he was traded three times between the start of 2020 and the end of July 2021. Then, for the past four years, he was a role player on a star-studded Mets roster. For that reason, let’s make sure we appreciate just how great he’s been. He has a career wRC+ of 115, 361 stolen bases, and 35.9 WAR to his name. He’s had eight different seasons of at least 3.0 WAR and earned a couple of Gold Gloves, a couple of All-Star nods, and even an MVP vote. You might be surprised to learn that JAWS ranks him 46th among left fielders. He’s not in Hall of Fame territory, but he’s a lot closer than you might think. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger in late January, they more or less committed to running back the same outfield they used in 2025. And why not? Even with limited contributions from their reserves, the primary trio of Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Aaron Judge combined to produce a major league-high 16.6 WAR. But with secondary roles still up for grabs, New York added outfielder Randal Grichuk to its options last week, signing the 34-year-old veteran to a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation to spring training.

The signing of Grichuk isn’t exactly out of left field, so to speak. While the Yankees do have 23-year-old switch-hitter Jasson Domínguez — who spent all of last season with the Yankees and made 93 starts in left but was reduced to a bench role by September — and 24-year-old prospect Spencer Jones on their 40-man roster, both have minor league options remaining (two for the former, three for the latter). If the primary trio is healthy, and if primary designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is able to answer the bell often enough (yes, that’s a load-bearing if), the Yankees would prefer that their youngsters continue to develop by playing regularly, if not in the Bronx than at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.

“I would concede it’s in his best interest to be getting everyday reps,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said in mid-February regarding Domínguez, who placed 16th on our Top 100 Prospects List last spring as a 55-FV prospect despite having been moved from center field to left, then hit a modest .257/.331/.388, (103 wRC+) in 429 plate appearances. While the Yankees tolerated worse from left fielder Alex Verdugo in 2024, when Domínguez was coming off Tommy John surgery on his right (throwing) elbow, between his league-average offense and his struggles in left field (-7 DRS, -9 FRV in 793 innings), he was an afterthought in September. He made just four starts and totaled 20 plate appearances in the final month of the regular season, before getting just one postseason plate appearance. (He made the most of it, lacing a leadoff double into the right-center gap in the bottom of the ninth inning of an elimination game with the Yankees down four runs.) Domínguez’s 0.6 WAR — which matched Verdugo’s 2024 output in about 200 fewer plate appearances — indicates he still has enough to work on to justify another stint in the minors. Read the rest of this entry »

You can never have enough starting pitching. Certainly the Toronto Blue Jays can’t. They’ve signed right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer to an incentive-heavy one-year contract with a $3 million base salary.

This is technically his third go-around in Canada; he made 20 starts for the Jays last year (17 in the regular season and three more in the playoffs) before hitting free agency. Scherzer, who is 291 years old, also served as a hussar in the army of the Marquis de Montcalm during the Seven Years’ War. Read the rest of this entry »

Spring training is underway and rosters are getting filled up. We’re now down to the part of the offseason where veterans whose recent performances have left them unable to find a guaranteed spot sign minor league deals with non-roster invites. Today we’ll break down the signings of Rhys Hoskins with the Guardians, Michael Conforto with the Cubs, and Thairo Estrada with the Orioles. All three have seen their production drop off over the past two years, but all three have a viable path toward sticking on the roster or even landing a starting spot.

We’ll start in Cleveland, where Hoskins will receive $1.5 million if he makes the roster. This move makes plenty of sense, but it’s important to note that the Guardians aren’t as desperate for a player like him as they would have been in years past. From 2021 to 2023, the only team with fewer than their 454 home runs was the Pirates (441). Cleveland’s 82 wRC+ against left-handed pitching was also the second-worst mark in baseball over that period. Back then, adding a big right-handed slugger who strikes out and hits homers would have been just what the doctor ordered. However, the Guardians are in a different spot right now. Over the past two years, they’ve ranked right around the middle of the league in home runs overall and in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. This is still a good fit, but Hoskins is no longer the slam dunk he would have been a couple years ago. Read the rest of this entry »

I try to be humble and open-minded as an analyst; there’s so much we don’t or can’t know at the time a player signs with a team. And the future? She is as capricious as she is mean-spirited. Nothing is guaranteed.

So I look at the Padres’ busy Presidents’ Day weekend — in which they signed Nick Castellanos, Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, and Ty France — and think to myself: I don’t know for a fact that A.J. Preller doesn’t have a bunch of European polymaths in the basement of Petco Park developing a time machine. That might sound farfetched, but “stick a bunch of smart guys under a stadium and see what happens” is literally how we got the world’s first working nuclear reactor. If Preller turns out to be the General Leslie Groves of time travel, he’ll have earned his contract extension and then some.

If Preller can retrieve previous versions of these players from the ethers of subspace, we’ll look back on this weekend (or forward, considering we have the ability to move through time in this hypothetical) as a definitive one in the 2026 NL West race.

Assuming no paradigm-shifting technology is to come, this seems OK. Read the rest of this entry »

After a long, quiet offseason, Zac Gallen is back where he started. In November, he turned down a qualifying offer, a one-year deal from the Diamondbacks worth $22.025 million. On Friday, Gallen and the Diamondbacks agreed to terms on a new contract. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before – it’s for one year and $22.025 million (with deferrals that drop the net present value to $18.75 million). Arizona’s ace is once again at the top of the rotation in the desert.

Gallen was my no. 19 free agent this winter, and I’ll just reproduce the first line of my write-up here: “After looking at Gallen’s résumé for about an hour, I came to an obvious conclusion: I’m glad I’m not a major league GM.” He had a severe case of pumpkinization in 2025. He missed fewer bats, drew fewer chases, walked more batters and struck out fewer, gave up louder contact, didn’t keep the ball on the ground, and lost a bit of velocity. It was the worst season of his career by a large margin; his 4.83 ERA might have been a caricature of his performance, but all of his advanced run prevention estimators surged to career-worst marks, too.

As a platform year, it left something to be desired. But I still think Gallen was right to turn down his QO and survey the landscape. After that didn’t work out, however, he made the obvious choice: Run it back in the same place and try again. Given that he put up a 3.20 ERA (3.22 FIP, 3.47 xFIP) from 2022 through 2024, worth a whopping 12.2 WAR (14.9 rWAR), betting on at least a little bit of bounce-back before a second trip to free agency surely felt very appealing. Read the rest of this entry »

While winning three World Series with the Dodgers, Max Muncy and Enrique Hernández have both made their marks in October, with the former setting the franchise record for postseason home runs (16) and the latter doing so for games played (92). Both will remain in Dodger Blue for awhile longer, with a chance to increase those totals — and chase a third consecutive championship. On Thursday, a day ahead of their pitchers and catchers reporting to Camelback Ranch, the Dodgers announced that Muncy has agreed to an extension for 2027, and that Hernández, a free agent, will again return to the fold. A day earlier, Los Angeles announced that it had re-signed righty Evan Phillips, who missed last year’s postseason run due to Tommy John surgery and was non-tendered in November. Amid the ensuing roster crunch, the Dodgers designated catcher Ben Rortvedt for assignment for the second time this winter, and traded previously DFA’d lefty Anthony Banda to the Twins for international bonus money.

That’s a lot to pick through, creating ripples up and down the roster. We’ll start with Muncy, who with the retirement of Clayton Kershaw is now the longest-tenured Dodger, having joined the team in 2018. The 35-year-old slugger was already signed for 2026, because in November the Dodgers picked up the $10 million option on his previous two-year, $24 million extension. His new contract — his fourth extension in the past six years, all of them so team-friendly that he’s never had a base salary above $13.5 million — guarantees him another $10 million, with $7 million for his 2027 salary and another $3 million as a buyout for a $10 million club option for ’28.

Those are bargain prices given the production and track record of Muncy, who has evolved from a cast-off by the A’s into a two-time All-Star and a pillar of the Dodgers lineup. While he was limited to 100 games in 2025 due to a bone bruise in his left knee — suffered on July 2, moments before Kershaw notched his 3,000th career strikeout — and then an oblique strain in mid-August, he hit .243/.376/.470 with 19 home runs in 388 plate appearances. Both his 137 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR were his highest since his All-Star 2021 campaign, but hardly out of character. Limited to 73 games in 2024 due to an oblique strain and a displaced rib, he hit .232/.358/.494 (133 wRC+) with 15 homers and 2.3 WAR in just 293 plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Montgomery helped the Rangers win their first World Series in 2023, but since then, things haven’t gone so well for him. First, he had a rough trip through free agency, then pitched poorly after signing a one-year deal with Arizona, left Scott Boras’ agency, publicly blasted Boras, got blasted by Diamondbacks managing partner Ken Kendrick… and underwent his second Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of the 2025 season. While rehabbing, he was even traded to the Brewers in a salary dump. After all that drama, now he’s a Ranger again.

On Wednesday morning, the day after Rangers pitchers and catchers reported to the team’s spring training facility in Surprise, Arizona, the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant reported that the 33-year-old lefty will join Texas on a one-year deal with a $1.25 million base salary and as-yet-unreported incentives. Montgomery had his surgery last April 1, so he won’t be ready until sometime in midseason, but the hope is that he can help the Rangers down the stretch.

With camps opening this week, Montgomery isn’t the only free agent who’s found a new home. On Tuesday, fellow starter Aaron Civale signed a one-year contract with the A’s, while Montgomery’s former Rangers batterymate Jonah Heim inked a one-year deal with the Braves. I’ll round all of these up below. Read the rest of this entry »