The hot corner got a little hotter in the Valley of the Sun last Friday, as the Diamondbacks topped off a busy holiday season with the acquisition of a new third baseman. Evan Longoria is heading to Arizona on a one-year, $4 million contract with an additional $1 million in incentives. He figures to play most of his games at third base, with opportunities to DH as well.
These two sides are a good fit for several reasons, chief among them that Longoria simply wanted to play in Arizona. Heading into the offseason, he stated that he would only consider offers from the Giants, Rays or Diamondbacks (in other words, places he already had homes). It’s likely he lost some leverage by showing his hand so early — $4 million is a tad low for a player who posted 3.0 WAR over the last two seasons — but it’s hard to imagine Longoria is losing any sleep. He gets to play close to home (one of them, anyway) for a team that will give him a real opportunity to prolong his career. The D-backs aren’t true contenders, but if Longoria plays well enough, he’ll find himself in a new uniform by the trade deadline anyway. Read the rest of this entry »
Jean Segura is headed south; the two-time All-Star infielder, late of the Phillies, inked a two-year deal with the Marlins in the days after Christmas. Segura, who will turn 33 two weeks before Opening Day, hit .277/.336/.387 last year and .281/.337/.418 over four seasons in Philadelphia, where he played mostly second base. His contract will pay $6.5 million in 2023 and $8.5 million in ’24, with a $10 million club option for ’25 that comes with a $2 million buyout. That comes to some $17 million in guaranteed money, on what will probably be the last big free-agent contract of Segura’s career.
This is the sixth big league stop Segura has made after being part of four multi-player trades, the first of which came just three days after he made his big league debut. For those of you who view Guy Remembering as a holy sacrament, here is a partial list of players who have either been traded for or with Segura in the past 10 seasons: Zack Greinke, Isan Díaz, Aaron Hill, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Ketel Marte, J.P. Crawford, and Carlos Santana. Consider how numerous and how significant those players’ other trades have been (Díaz for Christian Yelich, Greinke for most of the 2014–15 Royals, just to name two), and we could get quite a bit of editorial mileage out of Jean Segura’s Web of Trades.
Long, successful baseball careers usually have a predictable shape to them. A young, highly-regarded prospect gets his first cup of coffee, then becomes a full-time starter over the next few years, possibly ascending to star level. Then he slowly ages and declines, riding off into the sunset in his late 30s. Some choose not to follow that trend. Jamie Moyer pitched twice as many innings in his 40s as he did in his 20s, finally retiring at the absurd age of 49. In 1965, a 59-year-old Satchel Paige returned to the majors for one more game, and despite his signing being a largely ceremonial move, he still tossed three scoreless innings.
Then there’s Rich Hill. First drafted out of high school in a different millennium, Hill debuted with the Cubs in 2005 at age 25. Over the next decade, he bounced around the league, often struggling with elbow injuries and poor command. At the end of 2014, Hill was a 34-year-old who had played for six different teams, only completing 100 frames in a season once. After opting out of a minor league deal with the Nationals in the middle of the 2015 season, Hill ran out of offers with affiliated clubs. He signed with the independent Long Island Ducks and laid waste to his Atlantic League competition… for two starts. Hill was then tendered a big league contract with his hometown team, the Red Sox, had four excellent starts to close out the season, and has held down a big league roster spot ever since. Hill will begin the upcoming spring training by celebrating his 43rd birthday, making him the oldest major league player since the then 45-year-old Ichiro Suzuki last suited up in 2019. The Pirates will be his 12th team, making him one of just six players to appear for a dozen or more clubs.
When a slightly younger Hill signed with the Red Sox (for the seventh time in his career), Ben Clemens used the prophetic projection system RiPS (Rich is Pitching Superlatively) to forecast a 4.15 ERA and 1.7 WAR for his 2022 season. Hill’s actual numbers? A 4.27 ERA (but a 4.13 SIERA), and 1.8 WAR. Not bad, RiPS. But it gets even better. Ben wrote, “If he pitches to this line, he’ll earn $8 million next year and be well worth it for Boston.” In 2023, the Pirates will be paying Hill (checks notes) $8 million on the dot. Can we get some RiPS projected standings for the season? They might even turn out to be more accurate than the baseball Reddit’s marble race simulations. Read the rest of this entry »
In the days before Christmas, the Chicago Cubs filled out their starting rotation by bringing back a familiar face: Drew Smyly. This past season was one to forget for the Cubs, but Smyly was one of the bright spots. After confusing hitters with a breaking ball-heavy attack, Smyly earned an equally confusing contract structure: $8 million in 2023, $8.5 million in ’24, with an opt-out after this year and a $10 million mutual option for 2025, which comes with a $2.5 million buyout. That brings the total guarantee to two years, $19 million.
Once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Smyly spent most of his late 20s and early 30s bouncing aimlessly from team to team. But in 2022, he found stability in Chicago, and rewarded the Cubs with his best full season since 2014: 22 starts, 106 1/3 innings, and a 3.47 ERA. While his ERA would seem to flatter his underlying numbers, Smyly still posted a respectable FIP (4.23) and xERA (4.17). Compared to comparable free agents (Mike Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard, Matthew Boyd), Smyly’s getting an extra guaranteed year, but at a slightly lower AAV. If you want a starting pitcher who’s likely to throw 100 innings or more, with a reasonable chance of better-than-replacement-level rate stats, two years and $19 million is about what you should expect to pay.
That’s not too bad for a back-end starter, which is all Chicago will need him to be. The Cubs have already added Jameson Taillon to a rotation that includes Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele, who was quietly impressive in his first full season as a big league starter. Kyle Hendricks is also on course to return from a shoulder injury, which means Smyly is basically just there to make up the numbers. Let’s put it this way: If Smyly ends up having to be anything more than Chicago’s fourth-best starter, this is going to be a lost season anyway, and for reasons that have nothing to do with the 33-year-old lefty. Read the rest of this entry »
When I was assigned to write about Nathan Eovaldi’s eventual free agent signing — this prior to the Winter Meetings — my best guess was that he’d be returning to his baseball home for each of the last four-plus seasons. Boston had been a good fit for the 32-year-old right-hander, and the Chaim Bloom-run club needed him more than he needed them. Given the uncertainty of their rotation — not to mention increasing pressure to spend like a contender, not a small-market pretender — the Red Sox bringing back Eovaldi would have made all the sense in the world.
That didn’t happen. Last week, the Texas Rangers, a team that actually has been spending like a contender, inked the no. 15 player on our Top 50 free agent rankings to a two-year, $34 million contract. It was their third ambitious signing of the winter. Earlier in the offseason, Chris Young and Co. jumpstarted the starting rotation by signing Jacob deGrom to a five-year, $185 million deal and Andrew Heaney to a two-year, $25 million pact. The cumulative $244 million expenditure was based on need. Lacking front-of-the-rotation quality, Texas finished fourth from the bottom among American League clubs in starting pitcher WAR last year.
The trio of newcomers join a rotation that includes Jon Gray and Martín Pérez (back with the club after accepting Texas’ qualifying offer), with Dane Dunning, Jake Odorizzi (acquired in trade from the Braves in November), and Glenn Otto serving as solid backup options. Thanks to the additions, this is one of the deepest — and potentially among the most productive — starting staffs in either league. Read the rest of this entry »
Hey, they had the money. After the sensational done-not-done saga that ended with Carlos Correa signing with the New York Mets, the Giants spent the rest of the week signing two of the top remaining free agents on the market. They added Michael Conforto on a two-year, $36 million deal that includes an opt out after the first year, then signed Taylor Rogers to a three-year, $33 million deal after that.
I ranked Rogers 19th among this winter’s crop of free agents, so let’s start with him. To me, he’s one of the best handful of relievers in the game. I think this was a great pickup for the Giants — and would have been a great pickup for any team in baseball given the contract he got. Rogers spent the first six years of his major league career with the Twins and was reliably excellent, accruing a cumulative 3.15 ERA and 3.01 FIP. That earned him a spot on AJ Preller’s must-trade-for list; the Padres acquired him last offseason to head a closer-by-committee situation in San Diego.
He split time between the Padres and Twins last year – he was traded in the Josh Hader deal at the deadline – and had his worst season as a pro. He posted a 4.76 ERA, easily his worst mark and in a year where league-wide offense declined markedly. It looks to me mostly like bad luck, though; he still posted a 3.31 FIP, but largely got BABIP’ed (.327) and sequenced (63.5 LOB%, compared to a league average mark of 72.6%) to death. He struck out more than 30% of opposing batters while walking just under 7%, and gave up home runs at roughly the same clip he always had. The biggest cause for concern, in my eyes, is that he gave up a raft of hard contact in Milwaukee, but given that he only threw 23 innings there, I’d put it in the too-small-of-a-sample-to-matter bucket. Read the rest of this entry »
This holiday season, everybody wants a new catcher. Between free agency and the trade market, over a third of the league’s teams have added to their catcher mix this offseason, with most of those moves coming in the last few weeks. Catchers are finding new homes so fast that yesterday, my colleague Leo Morgenstern covered the Mets signing Omar Narváez and dealing James McCann to Baltimore, and Austin Hedges inking a one-year deal with Pittsburgh – and then two more backstops signed that afternoon. In Cincinnati, the Reds announced an agreement with Curt Casali (as well as first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers), designating Mike Moustakas for assignment in the process. And elsewhere in the NL Central, former Red and Tiger Tucker Barnhart got set to continue his tour of the teams closest to his home city of Indianapolis, joining the Chicago Cubs on a two-year, $6.5 million contract with a player option after the coming season. The two-time Gold Glover will pair with Yan Gomes to form a catching platoon after the Cubs lost three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to the rival Cardinals in free agency.
Barnhart did well to secure himself a two-year guarantee with the player option – of the eight free agent catchers who have signed major league deals this offseason, Contreras (five years), Christian Vázquez (three), Narváez (two), and Barnhart have earned multi-year commitments. Those other three are much more significant adds, as is reflected in their significantly higher total contract values. But Barnhart may have had extra motivation to lock down a second year – with a couple of months over eight years of service, he heads into this contract within reach of the 10-year service threshold that the Players Association calls the “holy grail for players.” Of course, while the money is guaranteed, the service time isn’t, but if Barnhart can remain healthy and productive enough to reach 10 years of service, his MLB pension will fully vest and he will notch a coveted milestone. The option adds another layer of player friendliness – if Barnhart bounces back from a down year in 2022, he’ll have a shot to test free agency again next winter, when, to be fair, the catcher market may once again be busy. Read the rest of this entry »
On Thursday, the Reds broke the silence hanging over their quiet offseason with three notable moves. The club inked both former Rookie of the Year Wil Myers and veteran backstop Curt Casali to one-year deals with mutual options. The former is guaranteed $7.5 million; the latter will take home at least $3.25 million. To make room for Casali, the Reds DFA’d Mike Moustakas, who was heading into the last season of a four-year, $64 million contract he signed prior to 2020.
After blowing it up when their previous rebuild resulted in merely a Wild Card contender, Cincinnati’s current reconstruction period is entering just its second season; at best, the team has an outside shot at the playoffs. That said, these moves don’t strike me as pure roster-filler or eye-toward-July transactions. Instead, they make real sense as supplements to a young team, potentially aiding in the development of up-and-comers in concrete ways. Read the rest of this entry »
There have been a lot of transactions this past week. There’s been a lot of drama, too, involving a top free agent, a medical issue, and boatloads of cash. The long weekend is just around the corner. It’s been an exhausting year, and we’d all like to get on with our lives. Between relaxing on the sofa and reading up on Drew Rucinski, deciding on which is the more appealing option doesn’t seem like a difficult task.
Which, fine, I understand. My livelihood isn’t affected by page views, so we’re cool here. But Rucinski isn’t just some random starter the Athletics chose as their annual innings-eater. When he last appeared in a major league game, he was a lackluster middle reliever for the Marlins. Since then, he’s undergone quite the transformation. Four years later, there’s an argument to be made that he was the best starting pitcher during his time in Korea. That’s a testament to how much he’s improved, in terms of stuff, command, and durability. Read the rest of this entry »
The Mets are changing the game. They’re spending too much, too fast. $800 million in a single offseason! Give us back our agreed-upon salary structure! (So to speak: “There’s no collusion. But … there was a reason nobody for years ever went past $300 million. You still have partners, and there’s a system,” an unnamed team official told Evan Drellich of The Athletic. Which is the kind of thing you say when there’s actually no collusion.)
Everyone’s freaking out about the Mets’ signing of Carlos Correa, news of which broke in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, hours after the Giants postponed their own official Correa rollout. Snatching the top remaining free agent away from a competitive rival in the middle of the night is a flashy move, as is signing a $300 million shortstop to play third base so as not to displace Francisco Lindor, the Mets’ incumbent $300 million shortstop.
The Mets’ projected 2023 payroll is currently at $376 million, not including tax penalties. At least for now, because the Mets’ 2023 projected payroll has been scrolling up all offseason like the scoreboard at the Jerry Lewis telethon. But here I feel compelled to borrow an observation from Tom Verducci: Before Correa, the Mets’ biggest free agent signings were mostly in service of either retaining or replacing outgoing free agents. Correa was the first real upgrade to a team that won 101 games in 2022.
Even then, the contract was not out of line with his market. He’ll make less money per year than Trea Turner or Manny Machado, and far less than Lindor. His AAV is only about $800,000 more per year than what Xander Bogaerts got from San Diego. Correa will make less money per year, over fewer years, than he stood to make had the Giants not reneged on their original 13-year, $350 million pact.
Less than 24 hours after they purloined Correa, the Mets signed another infielder at an hour when respectable people are trying to get another round in before last call instead of closing lucrative business deals. This time, it was Danny Mendick, inked to a one-year, $1 million deal.
Danny Mendick. A million bucks. One million of George Washington’s dollars. One million American simoleons.
I first became aware of Mendick many years ago while listening to an episode of FanGraphs Audio in which Carson Cistulli tried to say his last name and burst into laughter. But Mendick has evolved into a useful big leaguer. His career was probably hampered at the start because everyone saw a short White Sox second baseman and assumed he was Nick Madrigal. But after Madrigal got traded, we learned that Mendick can hold his own defensively at any infield position, and last season he hit .289/.343/.443 in 106 plate appearances.
There’s almost certainly quite a bit of batted-ball luck that went into Mendick’s 125 wRC+ in 2022. Surely the White Sox agree, otherwise they wouldn’t have non-tendered him. Let’s say he regresses all the way to his true talent wRC+, call it somewhere around 80. That’s still a perfectly acceptable backup infielder for $1 million. Of the 90 Opening Day starting second base, third base, and shortstop positions in the majors, I’m all but certain at least one will be occupied by a worse player than Mendick.
Here’s the thing: Mendick isn’t going to be the Mets’ utility infielder. He’s going to be the starting second baseman for the Triple-A Western New York Garbage Plates. (Which is what they should be called, instead of the Syracuse Mets.)
While Mendick is a serviceable, even slightly-north-of-replacement-level utility infielder, the Mets currently have that position covered. Many times over. Do you know how many people would have to be traded or incapacitated in order for Mendick to see meaningful playing time? Because I do. At least four: Eduardo Escobar, Luis Guillorme, Brett Baty, and at least one of New York’s All-Star infield starters (Correa, Lindor, and Jeff McNeil).
Escobar is the incumbent starting third baseman, and he would’ve remained so had Correa not become available. He’ll be making $9.5 million in 2023, after a season in which he posted a 106 wRC+ and 2.3 WAR. If he’s actually going to start the season as the utility infielder, he’s got to be the best utility infielder since Gil McDougald. Guillorme is what an elite utility infielder would look like on a normal team, someone who can back up the trickier defensive positions while also putting up excellent on-base numbers against right-handed pitching (.367 OBP, 118 wRC+).
Baty was the Mets’ third baseman of the future until the instant Giants owner Charles Johnson came over all Wayne Huizenga and San Francisco backed out of the Correa deal. If he’s not traded, he’s as exciting a backup third baseman as you’ll ever find. And even beyond Mendick, there’s more depth: non-roster invitee José Peraza, Jonathan Araúz, and Mark Vientos all saw big league action last year. (Though Vientos is more of a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency third baseman.) Top shortstop prospect Ronny Mauricio might not be ready now, but he might be before the season is over.
I have a recurring nightmare in which I’m back in high school and, despite having washed out of Little League as a preteen, I’m called upon to play third base in a high-stakes varsity baseball game. (To all the “You never played the game” guys: I did play the game, and I was terrible at it so I quit.) Every year, some version of this nightmare plays out on a major league field: A team with injury problems is forced to start an infielder who, upon encountering Double-A breaking stuff for the first time, started wondering if he’d have been better off going to law school.
That won’t happen to the Mets, because they can pay and have paid a premium for Danny Mendick, who has a remaining minor league option and can therefore be stashed in Triple-A until the Mets have need of him.
The normal cost for such a player is a split contract with a non-roster spring training invite. The major league minimum is $720,000 this year; such players would make at least $117,400 a year while in the minors, usually a little more if the team really wants them. But if the Mets can spend lots of money to make big, splashy improvements, they can also spend a comparative rounding error to fortify their organization further down the pecking order.
I’d argue that the Mets, by dint of their immense financial reserves, are the last team that needs to make these marginal improvements. That a team that’s committed to running bottom-third payrolls would get the most bang for its buck in the long-term by spending on minor league depth, facilities improvements, minor league salaries, coaches, and so on.
But there are 29 owners whose entire position in society is defined by having money. To spend or share it any more than necessary is to imperil their entire conception of self. Cohen is rich enough to know something his brothers in the cartel don’t: Money isn’t real to a man who’s worth tens of billions. Why are the Mets doing this? Because they can.
Correa is the splashier deal, the more expensive, and will ultimately be the more impactful. But by going out of their way to lock Mendick down, the Mets have truly shown their contempt for the other owners’ hysterical cries of poverty. They will not be outbid, anywhere on the depth chart.
