Opening Day is upon us! Yesterday, I laid out what the best- and worst-case scenarios looked like for the 12 teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026. Today, we turn our attention to the teams in the league who are forecast for a .500 or better record, the ones we expect to be vying for playoff position all season long.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these Opening Day rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. First up are the full rankings presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams we’re covering today into tiers, with comments on each club. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the pre-spring training run of the power rankings in February.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back, baseball! Opening Day is almost upon us and with it comes new hopes and dreams for each team. The aspirations for the best teams in the league are more lofty than those of the clubs building for the future, but anything can happen over the course of the long regular season. Over the next two days, I’ll lay out what the best- and worst-case scenario might look like for every team in 2026. Today, I’ll cover the teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026, with those forecast for a .500 or better record to follow tomorrow.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these Opening Day rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. First up are the full rankings presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams we’re covering today into tiers, with comments on each club. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the pre-spring training run of the power rankings in February.

…

The Rays are in the middle of a roster reset after missing out on the playoffs in each of the last two years. Fresh off a star performance for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, Junior Caminero looks set to truly establish himself as a superstar. Shane McClanahan is finally healthy, too, even if his stuff has looked a little diminished this spring. With their perpetual — and fairly successful — commitment to wringing every last bit of value out of their roster, it would be foolish to completely count out the Rays this season. Even so, considering the strength of the other four teams in the AL East, as well as the other AL wild card contenders, it feels unlikely that Tampa Bay will return to the postseason in 2026. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers and catchers start reporting to Arizona and Florida this week, which means it’s time to wrap up our pre-spring training power rankings. Last week, we took stock of how the projections viewed the bottom 18 teams in baseball as they head into camp. Today, we’ll shift our focus to the teams projected to finish with a .500 or better record in 2026. These rankings provide a good barometer for which teams took big steps forward with splashy signings and trades this offseason, and which ones have been left in the dust.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these pre-spring training rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections — now powered by both the 2026 Steamer and ZiPS projections — and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. First up are the full rankings presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams we’re covering today into tiers, with comments on each club. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the last offseason run of the power rankings in November. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is in the air. Grainy cellphone footage has started to leak out. The excitement for the World Baseball Classic is peaking. The last time we ran these power rankings, the offseason had just begun and teams were still making plans for how they were going to improve their rosters during the winter. This run of the rankings provides a good barometer for which teams took big steps forward with their splashy signings and big trades, and which ones have been left in the dust. Today I’ll cover the teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026, with those forecast for a .500 or better record to follow on Monday.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these pre-spring training rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections — now powered by both the 2026 Steamer and 2026 ZiPS projections — and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. First up are the rankings for teams 18-30, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the last offseason run of the power rankings in November.

…

It’s been a surprisingly quiet offseason for the Padres. They re-signed Michael King — a near necessity after seeing Dylan Cease depart in free agency and losing Yu Darvish for the season to elbow surgery — and Joe Musgrove should be healthy after missing all of 2025 with his own elbow surgery. But even with those two starters back in the fold, the rotation looks frighteningly shallow. You could probably say that about the entire roster, though. Years of win-now trades have depleted the farm system, and the upper minors look pretty devoid of meaningful depth. Maybe that won’t be a problem if everyone stays healthy, but the grind of the regular season means San Diego will inevitably have to dip into that depth at some point.

If the Rangers were going to squeeze every last ounce from this contention window that brought them a championship back in 2023, they needed to make some pretty dramatic moves this offseason. Trading Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo? Check. Sending a host of prospects to the Nationals for MacKenzie Gore? Check. Will it be enough to challenge the Mariners and Astros for the AL West crown? The projections aren’t convinced. Adding Gore to the starting rotation shifts the weight of expectations off of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker’s shoulders, but the pitching staff still looks weaker than the unit that led the majors in run prevention last year. On the offensive side of things, if you squint, you can see a healthy season from Corey Seager, a big step forward from Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, and bounce-back campaigns from Joc Pederson and Jake Burger all powering an improved lineup. But that’s a lot of things that need to go right for Texas to hit its 90th-percentile win projection.

The Twins are in the midst of a significant transition at the organizational level. Last week, the team announced that it had “mutually agreed to part ways” with the president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey. He had been at the helm since 2016, and combined with the huge teardown last summer, his departure represents a huge shift in direction for the franchise. Most of the moves the Twins have made this offseason have been on the fringes: They signed Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers to short-term deals and have made a handful of small trades to clear space on their 40-man roster. And yet, they still have a strong core of players — including Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton — and a trio of young position players — Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins, and Emmanuel Rodriguez — who could make an impact this year. The projections have them a hair below .500 right now, but it feels like that can swing dramatically depending on if they stick with the guys they have now or decide to continue selling off the talent they have left this summer.

The Reds blasted just 167 home runs last year, 10th fewest in the majors and a surprisingly low total for a team that calls Great American Ballpark home. Reuniting with Eugenio Suárez and his powerful bat should help in that regard. The rest of the lineup still has plenty of question marks. Will Elly De La Cruz bounce back after playing through a quad injury last summer? Can any of Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, or Noelvi Marte emerge as stars? Fortunately, the pitching staff looks like it will continue to be a strength. Led by Hunter Greene, the starting rotation should carry Cincinnati to the fringe of the NL Wild Card race. It worked out for the Reds last year, maybe lightning will strike twice.

The A’s continued to fortify the foundations of their roster by handing out a pair of seven-year contract extensions to Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson this offseason. Along with Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz, those five players are signed or under team control through at least 2029. That means this core will still be with the team for its expected move to Las Vegas in a few years. Adding to the excitement is 19-year-old top prospect Leo De Vries, the prize from last summer’s Mason Miller trade who is developing quickly. Yet, for all that thump on offense, the less that’s said about the pitching staff, the better. That puts the A’s in an awkward position, where their lineup is plenty good enough to contend but their pitchers are lagging far behind. There are some promising young arms coming up through the organization, but they are still a few years away. In the meantime, the hurlers at the major league level will struggle to survive in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.

The Rays snuck their way into three separate three-team deals this offseason, a near perfect encapsulation of their incremental approach to roster building. And with every other team in the AL East looking like a powerhouse, this year seems like a perfect moment for Tampa Bay to reset the roster and start building for its next contention window. Out are Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Shane Baz. In are Gavin Lux — probably a temporary stopgap at second base — and a collection of prospects to restock the farm system. Thankfully, Junior Caminero looks like a star to build around, and the pitching staff looks solid with the hopefully healthy return of Shane McClanahan.

Even if the rest of their offseason was quiet, it has to be seen as a success for the Guardians after they signed José Ramírez to a seven-year contract extension that should keep him in Cleveland through the end of his career. Locking up a future Hall of Famer to a team-friendly deal is something to be celebrated, especially since Ramírez has a pretty good shot at becoming the franchise’s best player of the last 100 years. But if you did want to quibble with the rest of the Guardians’ lack of activity this offseason, you could point to the small payroll savings they negotiated via Ramírez’s deal and the lack of reinvestment in the roster. Maybe those funds will trickle down to the roster in the near future, but the current group is pretty flawed. The Guardians were pretty lucky to win the AL Central last year, and the projections see them as the fourth-best team in that division heading into this season.

The Marlins did well to trade away from a position of strength — their starting rotation — to hopefully acquire an impact bat in Owen Caissie and restock their farm system with a gaggle of prospects. Eury Pérez took a big step forward last year after recovering from Tommy John surgery, and top pitching prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling should get an opportunity to debut this year. These are small steps toward building a contender in Miami, but it feels like there’s some forward momentum here.

Chaim Bloom started tearing down the Cardinals as soon as he was installed as their president of baseball operations this offseason. He found trade partners for Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray, removing the largest contracts on the team’s books, and also dealt Willson Contreras and Brendan Donovan for a bunch of prospects and draft picks. It’s a promising start to the Cardinals’ rebuild, and I’d expect more moves this summer. Meanwhile, top prospect JJ Wetherholt should have an opportunity to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. That should give fans a glimpse of the future while the front office sorts out how to build a contender around him.

You can’t fault the Angels for attempting to raise their ceiling a little bit. They brought in five pitchers this offseason — Grayson Rodriguez, Alek Manoah, Jordan Romano, Kirby Yates, and Drew Pomeranz — who have each been fantastic at some point in the past, but have also dealt with significant injuries that have sapped their effectiveness. It’s a fine gamble to make, with the hope that at least one or two of them will actually make an impact this year. They also re-signed third baseman Yoán Moncada and acquired outfielder Josh Lowe, who will replace Taylor Ward in the outfield after they sent him to Baltimore in the Rodriguez deal. Will it be enough to lift the Halos out of their doldrums? No, probably not, but at least they’re trying something a little different.

New president of baseball operations Paul Toboni got right to work rebuilding the Nationals this winter. He dealt away MacKenzie Gore in the offseason’s biggest trade and made a savvy move to get catcher Harry Ford from the Mariners for lefty reliever Jose A. Ferrer. What these moves indicate is that Washington is about to embark on another rebuilding cycle after the last one petered out under former GM Mike Rizzo. James Wood is young enough, and under team control for long enough, that he should still be considered a big part of the team’s future. The same might not be true for CJ Abrams, though with three years left of control, the Nats shouldn’t be in a hurry to move on from their shortstop.

The White Sox had a pretty interesting offseason. Of course, the biggest headline was the signing of Munetaka Murakami to a two-year deal. It’s a huge risk, but it’s an exciting move that could pay off handsomely if Murakami adjusts to MLB pitching quickly. Chicago also moved on from Luis Robert Jr. and used some of the payroll savings to take Jordan Hicks’s contract off Boston’s hands in order to get an interesting pitching prospect in David Sandlin. With Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel already making an impact in the majors, and Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith close to debuting, the shape of an interesting team is starting to emerge on the South Side.

Unlike some of the other front office hires this offseason, Paul DePodesta has taken a pretty quiet approach to reshaping the roster. The moves he’s made have all been focused on improving the margins of the roster. The Rockies have signed Willi Castro and Michael Lorenzen and traded for Jake McCarthy and Edouard Julien. The four newcomers provide some much-needed depth, but none of them really raises the ceiling of the ball club. I guess we’ll have to wait for this summer to see if there are any impactful trades in the offing.

The hot stove has started to heat up, but it’s still pretty early in the offseason. On Tuesday, I took stock of how the early 2026 projections viewed the bottom 18 teams in baseball as they’re currently constructed. Today, I’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish with a .500 or better record in 2026. This exercise should give us a pretty good idea of which clubs would be ready to compete if the season started today, and which ones still have work to do this offseason.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Right now, our Depth Charts projections are powered entirely by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections will be folded in later in the offseason.

First up are the rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times when I take editorial liberties in grouping teams together — but generally, the order is consistent. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. The rankings for teams 18–30 have been updated with the handful of moves that occurred around baseball since Part I was published. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re currently in the lull between the end of the World Series and the real start of hot stove season. Teams are just about done with the annual housekeeping necessary to prepare their rosters for the winter — the 40-man deadline is later today, while the non-tender deadline is Friday — but Josh Naylor aside, the big free agent moves are still on the horizon. That means it’s the perfect time to take stock of how each team measures up. The rankings below represent each team as it is currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. That should give us a pretty good idea of which clubs would be ready to compete if the season started today, and which ones still have work to do this offseason. Today I’ll cover the teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026, with those forecast for a .500 or better record to follow later this week.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Right now, our Depth Charts projections are powered entirely by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections will be folded in later in the offseason.

First up are the rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times when I take editorial liberties in grouping teams together — but generally, the order is consistent. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

After the last four playoff spots were decided during a wild final weekend of the regular season, the postseason is finally upon us. The 12-team field features a number of ballclubs that were playing their best baseball down the stretch in September, plus a few teams that backed into the playoffs in the midst of some worrying slumps. But the slate is wiped clean in October, and anything can happen in the postseason. Here’s a look at the 12 playoff teams and how they stack up against each other.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. Since we’ve reached the postseason, I’ve removed the playoff odds weighting to our raw Elo calculations and presented the teams in the tiers below based on our odds of them winning the World Series. If you’re curious about how your team finished in the standard regular season power rankings, the full table can be found at the bottom of this article. Read the rest of this entry »

The final week of the regular season is upon us, and the playoff picture in both leagues is far from settled. It should be a fun week of baseball as everything sorts itself out before the postseason begins.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

All of a sudden the NL Wild Card race looks a lot more exciting, while the playoff picture in the AL had a big shakeup over the weekend. It’s bound to be an exciting final two weeks of the regular season.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Read the rest of this entry »

The playoff race in the National League looks pretty settled, but the door to capturing a Wild Card spot in the American League looks like it has cracked open a little bit. There are a handful of teams still looking to make a last minute run, though with less than a month left in the season, time is running out for those long shots.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »