Archive for Power Rankings

FanGraphs Power Rankings: 2025 Postseason Edition

After the last four playoff spots were decided during a wild final weekend of the regular season, the postseason is finally upon us. The 12-team field features a number of ballclubs that were playing their best baseball down the stretch in September, plus a few teams that backed into the playoffs in the midst of some worrying slumps. But the slate is wiped clean in October, and anything can happen in the postseason. Here’s a look at the 12 playoff teams and how they stack up against each other.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. Since we’ve reached the postseason, I’ve removed the playoff odds weighting to our raw Elo calculations and presented the teams in the tiers below based on our odds of them winning the World Series. If you’re curious about how your team finished in the standard regular season power rankings, the full table can be found at the bottom of this article. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 15–21

The final week of the regular season is upon us, and the playoff picture in both leagues is far from settled. It should be a fun week of baseball as everything sorts itself out before the postseason begins.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: September 8–14

All of a sudden the NL Wild Card race looks a lot more exciting, while the playoff picture in the AL had a big shakeup over the weekend. It’s bound to be an exciting final two weeks of the regular season.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Phillies 89-61 1581 1496 100.0% 1620 1
2 Brewers 91-59 1580 1493 100.0% 1619 -1
3 Blue Jays 87-62 1574 1500 100.0% 1614 2
4 Yankees 83-66 1553 1504 99.5% 1595 0
5 Red Sox 82-68 1555 1503 90.6% 1590 -2
6 Mariners 82-68 1550 1499 96.4% 1587 6
7 Cubs 85-64 1534 1506 100.0% 1584 -1
8 Dodgers 84-65 1524 1500 100.0% 1576 0
9 Tigers 85-65 1508 1490 99.5% 1564 -2
10 Padres 82-68 1498 1489 99.8% 1556 -1
11 Astros 81-69 1503 1497 72.8% 1524 -1
12 Rangers 79-71 1556 1502 29.8% 1523 1
13 Guardians 78-71 1535 1497 11.3% 1491 3
14 Mets 77-73 1464 1496 80.6% 1479 -3
15 Diamondbacks 75-75 1512 1496 4.9% 1470 0
16 Athletics 70-80 1518 1504 0.0% 1456 5
17 Giants 75-74 1491 1496 9.2% 1454 3
18 Orioles 69-80 1511 1508 0.0% 1451 -1
19 Reds 74-75 1480 1499 5.0% 1440 -1
20 Royals 75-75 1496 1497 0.2% 1440 -6
21 Marlins 70-80 1478 1505 0.0% 1425 5
22 Pirates 65-85 1472 1506 0.0% 1421 -3
23 Rays 73-76 1471 1500 0.0% 1421 0
24 Braves 66-83 1467 1500 0.0% 1417 0
25 Cardinals 73-77 1464 1500 0.5% 1417 -3
26 Nationals 62-87 1458 1507 0.0% 1410 2
27 Angels 69-81 1451 1501 0.0% 1405 -2
28 White Sox 57-93 1449 1503 0.0% 1403 -1
29 Twins 65-84 1410 1494 0.0% 1373 0
30 Rockies 41-109 1356 1513 0.0% 1331 0

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 25–September 7

The playoff race in the National League looks pretty settled, but the door to capturing a Wild Card spot in the American League looks like it has cracked open a little bit. There are a handful of teams still looking to make a last minute run, though with less than a month left in the season, time is running out for those long shots.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 18–24

If you’re looking for a team to make a surprise run to the playoffs, the final month of the season likely won’t be that exciting; there are just three teams on the fringe of the postseason picture, and none of them have playoff odds higher than 20%. But with 12 teams jockeying for their playoff position and a handful of division races left to be decided, there’s still potential for a good bit of intrigue between now and October.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 4–17

After a week hiatus, these power rankings are back… and nothing much has changed in the playoff picture. The National League is particularly stratified, even if the NL West is a bit closer than it was two weeks ago, and although there are a few more longshots in the American League, the 12-team field looks pretty settled right now.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Brewers 78-45 1644 1489 100.0% 1664 0
2 Blue Jays 73-52 1570 1499 99.5% 1604 0
3 Red Sox 68-57 1562 1501 78.8% 1579 0
4 Dodgers 71-53 1539 1504 99.8% 1576 1
5 Phillies 71-53 1539 1496 99.0% 1576 1
6 Cubs 70-53 1532 1509 97.9% 1569 -2
7 Padres 69-55 1537 1497 97.4% 1568 0
8 Tigers 73-53 1518 1487 99.3% 1561 0
9 Mariners 68-57 1539 1499 92.8% 1560 2
10 Astros 69-55 1527 1497 92.0% 1558 0
11 Yankees 67-57 1518 1504 93.5% 1538 1
12 Reds 65-60 1525 1499 14.3% 1511 3
13 Mets 66-58 1479 1493 85.9% 1496 -4
14 Royals 63-61 1523 1498 12.1% 1493 2
15 Guardians 63-60 1502 1497 14.7% 1484 2
16 Orioles 57-67 1509 1504 0.1% 1460 2
17 Rangers 62-63 1492 1501 11.6% 1457 -3
18 Marlins 59-65 1501 1507 0.3% 1456 -5
19 Angels 60-64 1490 1499 1.1% 1449 0
20 Braves 56-68 1495 1500 0.3% 1448 8
21 Athletics 56-70 1489 1504 0.0% 1442 -1
22 Rays 61-64 1469 1503 3.8% 1432 1
23 Twins 58-66 1464 1496 0.6% 1424 2
24 Diamondbacks 60-65 1456 1490 0.7% 1420 2
25 Cardinals 61-64 1451 1500 2.6% 1418 -3
26 Pirates 52-73 1454 1505 0.0% 1415 -5
27 Giants 60-64 1433 1493 1.8% 1402 -3
28 Nationals 50-74 1435 1509 0.0% 1399 1
29 White Sox 44-80 1414 1505 0.0% 1383 -2
30 Rockies 35-89 1394 1514 0.0% 1367 0

Tier 1 – The Brewers
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Brewers 78-45 1644 1489 100.0% 1664

Well, the Brewers finally lost a game in the month of August. Their 14-game winning streak propelled their lead in the NL Central from one game ahead of the Cubs on July 31 to an eight-game gap, and they have the best record in the majors by six games. They’ve barely felt the impact of Jackson Chourio’s hamstring injury, which he suffered a few weeks ago, because nearly everyone else in their lineup is on fire. Seven of the eight Milwaukee players who have collected at least 50 plate appearances in August are running a 125 wRC+ or higher for the month. The Brew Crew will have an opportunity to truly bury the Cubs in the standings, as those two rivals have a five-game series on the schedule this week, beginning with a doubleheader on Monday at Wrigley Field.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Blue Jays 73-52 1570 1499 99.5% 1604
Red Sox 68-57 1562 1501 78.8% 1579
Dodgers 71-53 1539 1504 99.8% 1576
Phillies 71-53 1539 1496 99.0% 1576

The Blue Jays extended their lead in the AL East to five games by going 4-2 last week against the Cubs and Rangers. They might not be the most complete team in the AL, but as long as their superstars are producing, they look very hard to beat. To wit: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. blasted his sixth home run of the month on Sunday, Bo Bichette has returned to form after his terrible 2024 season, and George Springer was just activated off the IL on Saturday.

It took him a few weeks to acclimate to the big leagues, but beginning with a 3-for-6 showing on June 28, Roman Anthony has slashed .322/.433/.409 (a 158 wRC+) in 40 games. And he’ll be anchoring this lineup for a long time to come, as Boston signed him to a huge extension a few weeks ago. After treading water in the Wild Card race with a 3-3 record last week, the Red Sox have a huge four-game series against the Yankees looming this weekend in the Bronx.

The Dodgers and Padres entered last weekend’s series in Los Angeles on very different trajectories. After suffering a sweep at the hands of the Angels, the Dodgers dropped from first place in the NL West for the first time since late April. Meanwhile, San Diego had been surging, winners of five straight series with a 14-3 record over its previous 17 games. Then, naturally, Los Angeles won all three games to flip the momentum of both teams. The Dodgers once again lead the division, by two games entering this week, but this race is far from over, despite our playoff odds giving the Padres just a 16.1% shot at winning the West. We’ll see how those odds move after the two teams match up for three games in San Diego this weekend in their final meeting of the regular season.

The Phillies extended their lead in the NL East from half a game on August 4 to five games entering Monday, but they are now facing the prolonged absence of Zack Wheeler, who was placed on the IL on Sunday with a blood clot in his shoulder. The returns of both Aaron Nola and Alec Bohm from their respective injuries should soften the blow a bit, and Philadelphia should have the rotation depth to get by without Wheeler in the regular season. However, it’s quite possible the Phillies won’t have their best pitcher back for October. That’s a major concern in what should be a very competitive NL postseason field.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Cubs 70-53 1532 1509 97.9% 1569
Padres 69-55 1537 1497 97.4% 1568
Tigers 73-53 1518 1487 99.3% 1561
Mariners 68-57 1539 1499 92.8% 1560
Astros 69-55 1527 1497 92.0% 1558

Even if the Cubs do well in their huge five-game set against the Brewers this week, it probably won’t be enough to disturb Milwaukee’s chances of winning the division. Instead, a good performance should allow Chicago to regain some of the momentum it has lost. When the Cubs took two out of three games from the Pirates over the weekend, it marked just the third time the North Siders have won a series in the four weeks since July 21, a span of eight series.

It looks like the Tigers have put their July swoon behind them. They couldn’t complete the four-game sweep of the Twins on Sunday, but they’ve now won three straight series and have gone 13-7 over their last 20 games. The Astros will visit Detroit this week in a showdown between two of the best teams in the AL.

The Mariners had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday, but their surge earned them a share of the AL West lead for a very brief moment. From there, though, Seattle faltered again, losing both of its series last week, against the Orioles and the Mets, and slipping to 1 1/2 games behind the Astros in the West. Even so, things are looking up for the Mariners: With Bryce Miller set to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, the M’s will have all five of their top starters active and healthy for the first time this season. Meanwhile, after a frigid three weeks coming out of the All-Star break, Cal Raleigh is on fire once again. Over his last nine games, Big Dumper is slashing .303/.395/.818 with five home runs and a 231 wRC+.

As for the Astros, you can chalk up another injury on their long ledger this season. This time it’s a shoulder injury to Josh Hader, which is expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, though the door is still slightly open for an October return if everything heals well. In better news, Yordan Alvarez is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment this week.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Yankees 67-57 1518 1504 93.5% 1538
Reds 65-60 1525 1499 14.3% 1511
Mets 66-58 1479 1493 85.9% 1496

Since being activated from the IL on August 5, Aaron Judge has posted a very-mortal-though-still-solid .229/.426/.429 slash line (140 wRC+). No matter, the Yankees have gone 7-4 with Judge back in the lineup and have crawled back within a half game of the Red Sox and Mariners for the top Wild Card spot in the AL.

Things got pretty dicy for New York’s National League team, as the Mets slogged through a brutal 2-14 stretch and let the Reds close the gap considerably in the Wild Card standings. New York never let go of that final spot, and its back-to-back wins against the Mariners over the weekend provided a little bit of breathing room, but this is still a much tighter race than anyone in Queens would like. The good news for the Mets is that their two Franciscos in are heating up; Lindor tallied 14 hits and three home runs last week, and Alvarez has posted a .323/.408/.645 slash line (193 wRC+) since being recalled from Triple-A on July 21.

With the Mets stumbling, the Reds looked like they were poised to pull into a playoff position, especially after they won their series against the Phillies heading into last weekend. But Cincinnati ran into the Brewers at exactly the wrong time, losing the first two games before snapping Milwaukee’s 14-game winning streak in extra innings on Sunday. Unfortunately, as soon as the Reds activated Hunter Greene off the IL, Chase Burns switched places with him after suffering a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. For now, manager Terry Francona is hoping for the best-case scenario, that Burns can resume throwing soon and return before the end of August. However, Reds fans shouldn’t get too excited just yet, as the organization will surely be cautious with the 22-year-old’s rehab and almost certainly limit his workload the rest of the way.

Tier 5 – AL Longshots
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Royals 63-61 1523 1498 12.1% 1493
Guardians 63-60 1502 1497 14.7% 1484
Rangers 62-63 1492 1501 11.6% 1457

The three teams in this tier are desperately trying to hang on in the AL Wild Card race. The Guardians fell to 3 1/2 games behind the Yankees for the final playoff spot after getting swept by the Braves at home over the weekend. It was Cleveland’s first series loss since late July. Even with those three losses, the Guards still have the AL’s best record since July 7 (23-12). Meanwhile, the Royals have been nearly as good over that same span (20-13). Following a three-game sweep of White Sox, Kansas City enters this week just a half-game behind Cleveland in the standings.

On the other side of the coin, the Rangers are in the middle of what could be season-crushing skid. On July 27, Texas reached a season-best six games over .500; since then, the team has gone 6-13 and slipped below .500 again. This week probably represents the last gasp of hope for the Rangers to return to the Wild Card race. They travel to Kansas City for four games before hosting the Guardians for a three-game set this weekend.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Orioles 57-67 1509 1504 0.1% 1460
Marlins 59-65 1501 1507 0.3% 1456
Angels 60-64 1490 1499 1.1% 1449
Braves 56-68 1495 1500 0.3% 1448
Athletics 56-70 1489 1504 0.0% 1442
Rays 61-64 1469 1503 3.8% 1432

It was fun while it lasted, but you can probably stick a fork in any hope of a surprise Wild Card run from the Marlins. After sweeping the Yankees three weekends ago to reach .500, they’ve won just four of their last 14 and are now seven games behind the Mets for the final playoff spot. To make matters worse, Kyle Stowers, Miami’s best hitter this season, was just placed on the IL with an oblique strain. At least the Marlins can point to their competitive stretch in July and dream about returning to contention sooner rather than later.

It’s far too little, too late, but the Braves are finally on a roll. They swept the Guardians last weekend and are now 9-2 over their last 11 games. The key to this late-season surge has been the resurgence of Michael Harris II. After making some swing adjustments in early July, he’s slashing .386/.402/.719 (210 wRC+) since the All-Star break. If Atlanta doesn’t have to worry about Harris’ bat moving forward, it gives the organization one less thing to address in what has suddenly become a hugely important offseason.

Not to discount what Harris has done lately, but the two best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season both play for the Athletics. You probably know about the heater that Nick Kurtz is on, but Shea Langeliers has been almost as good over the last month. Both of those guys blasted home runs on Sunday — for Langeliers, it was his major league-leading 14th since the All-Star break. The A’s will need to figure out how to pitch in their temporary home in Sacramento, but their offense certainly looks like it’s for real.

Tier 7 – Worst-Case Scenarios
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Twins 58-66 1464 1496 0.6% 1424
Diamondbacks 60-65 1456 1490 0.7% 1420
Cardinals 61-64 1451 1500 2.6% 1418
Pirates 52-73 1454 1505 0.0% 1415
Giants 60-64 1433 1493 1.8% 1402

The Twins’ expected post-deadline crash hasn’t exactly arrived. Sure, they went 2-5 against the Yankees and Tigers last week, but they are only a game below .500 since they sold nearly every spare part off their roster. The fantastic play of Luke Keaschall is a big reason why they’re still playing like a competitive team; he’s posted a 149 wRC+ since being activated off the IL on August 5. The biggest baseball news in Minnesota last week was the announcement that the Pohlad family will remain principal owners of the team after exploring a sale. The optics of this announcement stink. The Twins just traded away a huge chunk of the roster and dumped Carlos Correa off the payroll. To turn around and say this teardown was “part of the process” looks like an extension of the same penny pinching that led to these past two disappointing seasons. The hope established in 2023, when they won their first playoff series in two decades, feels like a long, long time ago.

Tier 8 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Nationals 50-74 1435 1509 0.0% 1399
White Sox 44-80 1414 1505 0.0% 1383
Rockies 35-89 1394 1514 0.0% 1367

With a pair of series wins over the Cardinals and Diamondbacks last week, the Rockies are now playing ahead of the historically bad pace of the 2024 White Sox. Colorado has to win just seven games before the end of the season to avoid tying Chicago’s record of futility. That certainly feels doable, even if the Rockies have one of the most difficult remaining schedules in baseball.


FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 28–August 3

Have you caught your breath yet from that wild and busy trade deadline? Me neither, but it sure was a blast. And we also now have a better sense of where teams stand heading into the stretch run of the season.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Brewers 67-44 1606 1491 98.1% 1629 1
2 Blue Jays 65-48 1560 1501 95.9% 1589 -1
3 Red Sox 62-51 1576 1499 76.4% 1589 5
4 Cubs 65-46 1555 1510 97.1% 1583 -1
5 Dodgers 65-47 1543 1503 99.5% 1573 1
6 Phillies 63-48 1533 1498 96.6% 1558 -1
7 Padres 62-50 1532 1496 90.0% 1548 7
8 Tigers 65-48 1509 1491 98.2% 1547 2
9 Mets 63-49 1511 1488 93.1% 1537 -5
10 Astros 62-50 1512 1494 85.7% 1537 -3
11 Mariners 60-53 1531 1502 81.2% 1536 0
12 Yankees 60-52 1504 1505 87.0% 1518 0
13 Marlins 55-55 1552 1508 1.5% 1513 2
14 Rangers 58-55 1519 1499 35.4% 1505 -5
15 Reds 58-54 1508 1492 11.7% 1494 -2
16 Royals 56-56 1517 1500 14.2% 1491 1
17 Guardians 56-55 1497 1499 14.8% 1480 -1
18 Orioles 51-61 1501 1502 0.2% 1459 4
19 Angels 54-58 1486 1499 1.5% 1454 0
20 Athletics 49-65 1478 1508 0.0% 1438 3
21 Pirates 48-64 1477 1503 0.0% 1437 5
22 Cardinals 56-57 1463 1501 4.1% 1435 -2
23 Rays 55-58 1462 1505 7.8% 1435 -5
24 Giants 56-56 1456 1495 7.4% 1432 -3
25 Twins 52-59 1459 1494 1.7% 1427 -1
26 Diamondbacks 53-59 1457 1496 0.9% 1424 -1
27 White Sox 42-70 1452 1503 0.0% 1417 2
28 Braves 47-63 1441 1495 0.0% 1409 0
29 Nationals 44-67 1420 1509 0.0% 1391 -2
30 Rockies 30-81 1384 1516 0.0% 1361 0

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: 2025 Trade Deadline Edition

It’s been a few weeks since our last run of the power rankings, and a lot has happened since then. Teams we thought of as contenders are suddenly out of the playoff picture, and the buyers and sellers ahead of this week’s trade deadline are quickly sorting themselves out.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 7–14

Over the last three weeks, we’ve had three different leaders atop these power rankings. The top of the standings have been volatile, as no one really has pulled away from the pack. On the other hand, the bottom half of the rankings have been stable, with a large group of mediocre teams stuck in the awkward zone between competing and retooling.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 30–July 6

A bunch of interesting matchups with playoff implications dot the schedule this week. A hot streak heading into the All-Star break could be all that a fringe contender needs to decide to make a big push at the trade deadline later this month.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Astros 55-35 1602 1496 98.3% 1620 1
2 Blue Jays 52-38 1585 1506 87.8% 1599 8
3 Dodgers 56-35 1579 1499 99.8% 1599 -2
4 Tigers 57-34 1559 1485 99.6% 1585 -1
5 Cubs 54-36 1567 1509 94.8% 1585 1
6 Phillies 53-37 1557 1497 96.0% 1574 -1
7 Rays 49-41 1537 1502 69.1% 1544 -3
8 Brewers 50-40 1539 1486 58.2% 1543 0
9 Mets 52-39 1516 1488 86.8% 1533 3
10 Mariners 48-42 1523 1496 72.9% 1526 3
11 Yankees 49-41 1502 1501 85.8% 1513 -4
12 Cardinals 48-43 1518 1509 31.4% 1508 -3
13 Red Sox 46-45 1520 1499 25.3% 1506 4
14 Padres 48-41 1506 1498 45.1% 1505 0
15 Reds 46-44 1515 1499 13.1% 1497 -4
16 Giants 49-42 1489 1488 47.5% 1490 0
17 Orioles 40-49 1503 1501 3.6% 1473 4
18 Rangers 44-46 1488 1498 18.5% 1471 0
19 Angels 43-46 1488 1498 3.8% 1468 -4
20 Marlins 40-48 1491 1507 0.3% 1462 0
21 Twins 43-47 1480 1497 19.5% 1460 3
22 Pirates 38-53 1486 1513 0.1% 1453 3
23 Diamondbacks 44-46 1472 1495 20.1% 1452 -4
24 Royals 43-48 1472 1498 9.9% 1451 2
25 Braves 39-50 1456 1494 6.6% 1429 -2
26 Guardians 40-48 1439 1508 6.0% 1419 -4
27 Athletics 37-55 1440 1507 0.2% 1414 0
28 Nationals 37-53 1427 1504 0.0% 1403 0
29 White Sox 30-60 1394 1502 0.0% 1374 0
30 Rockies 21-69 1349 1522 0.0% 1336 0

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Astros 55-35 1602 1496 98.3% 1620
Blue Jays 52-38 1585 1506 87.8% 1599
Dodgers 56-35 1579 1499 99.8% 1599

Defying expectations, the Astros continue to put together win after win. Their list of players on the IL is currently longer than that of the Dodgers, but they completed a pretty comprehensive sweep of Los Angeles last weekend. Houston hasn’t lost a series since May 21 and has the best record in baseball by a pretty wide margin in that span. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were handed their first series loss since June 8. They have to be relieved that Max Muncy’s knee injury, which he suffered on Thursday, turned out to be much less serious than it initially looked. On the pitching side, Tyler Glasnow will likely be activated from the IL to start Wednesday’s game, giving the rotation some reinforcements at a critical juncture.

The Blue Jays! A nine-game winning streak has thrust the Jays into first place in the AL East, and they did it by sweeping the Yankees in a huge four-game series in Toronto, which included a joyous victory on Canada Day. The Jays followed that up with a weekend sweep of the Angels and yet another win Monday against the White Sox, extending their division lead to 3 1/2 games. With two more to play against Chicago and then a three-game set against the Athletics over the weekend, Toronto has a favorable schedule lined up before the All-Star break. If the Blue Jays manage to hang onto the AL East lead, they will start the second half of the season in first place for the first time since 2016.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Tigers 57-34 1559 1485 99.6% 1585
Cubs 54-36 1567 1509 94.8% 1585
Phillies 53-37 1557 1497 96.0% 1574

The Tigers swept the Guardians last weekend to extend their record against divisional foes to 18-9. The rest of the AL Central has all sorts of problems right now, but Detroit’s ability to beat up its rivals is a big reason why it leads the division by a whopping 14 games.

The Cubs produced plenty of fireworks during their series win over the Cardinals last weekend; Chicago hit 11 home runs during the three-game set, producing two blowout victories on Friday and Sunday. Michael Busch hit four of them — three alone on Independence Day — and added 13 hits last week. After seeing the Brewers and Cardinals creep closer in the NL Central the last few weeks, the Cubs have jumped back out to a 3 1/2-game lead.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Rays 49-41 1537 1502 69.1% 1544
Brewers 50-40 1539 1486 58.2% 1543
Mets 52-39 1516 1488 86.8% 1533
Mariners 48-42 1523 1496 72.9% 1526

The Rays have now lost three straight series; they dropped two of three at home against the A’s to begin last week, followed by two walk-off losses in their three-game set against the Twins over the weekend. The big culprit has been the bullpen, which was responsible for all four losses last week. Across their last 10 games dating back to June 27, Tampa Bay relievers have a 7.96 ERA, the second-worst mark in the majors during that span. The Rays have a tough slate of games heading into the All-Star break: They lost the first game of their three-game series in Detroit on Monday, and then they finish off the first half with four games in Boston.

After a pretty rough patch to finish the month of June, the Mets got back on track with series wins over the Brewers and Yankees last week. Brandon Nimmo blasted a pair of grand slams and added a solo shot for good measure. New York is also expected to activate Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea from the IL during the final series of the first half, against the Royals in Kansas City, which should alleviate some of the team’s recent pitching issues.

As for Milwaukee, the Brewers finally activated Brandon Woodruff off the IL after multiple setbacks during his rehab this year; he was excellent in his first major league start since 2023, allowing just a single run across six innings against the Marlins while striking out eight. The Brew Crew started off this week with an impressive win over the Dodgers on Monday.

The Mariners held the Pirates scoreless across three games this weekend. It was the first time in franchise history that Seattle has shut out an opponent for an entire series. Over the last two weeks, Mariners starters have a 2.44 ERA, second best in baseball. It took George Kirby a little while to shake off the rust after missing the first eight weeks of the season with a shoulder injury, but he’s allowed just two runs across his last three starts; in seven starts since the beginning of June, he has a 2.68 ERA and a 2.74 FIP. On the offensive side of things, Randy Arozarena blasted six home runs last week, and Cal Raleigh collected his seventh multi-homer game of the season — the most in baseball — on Friday, extending his league-leading home run total to 35. Though Seattle remains 6 1/2 games behind the Astros in the AL West, it is two games up on the Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot. Only a game separates the Mariners and the Yankees, who hold the top Wild Card position; the two teams begin a three-game series in the Bronx on Tuesday.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Yankees 49-41 1502 1501 85.8% 1513
Cardinals 48-43 1518 1509 31.4% 1508
Red Sox 46-45 1520 1499 25.3% 1506
Padres 48-41 1506 1498 45.1% 1505
Reds 46-44 1515 1499 13.1% 1497
Giants 49-42 1489 1488 47.5% 1490

Speaking of the Yankees, they just endured a nightmare of a week. Not only did they get swept in their four-game series with the Blue Jays, who knocked them out of first place, but they also dropped their weekend series against the Mets. If that wasn’t bad enough, Clarke Schmidt suffered a torn UCL and will likely need Tommy John surgery. While the offense that slumped for much of June has started to come around, the bullpen allowed a whopping 28 runs in 24 innings last week. This week’s series against the Mariners suddenly has some pretty major Wild Card implications, and then the first-place Cubs come to town to wrap up the first half.

The Giants and Padres entered play Monday tied for the final NL Wild Card spot, but their situations could change by the time this week is over. Both teams have a pretty difficult stretch of games ahead of the All-Star break, with each of them set to host the Phillies. San Francisco won the first game of its series against Philadelphia on Monday to pull a game ahead in the standings, as San Diego lost the opener of its four-game set against the Diamondbacks. After the Phillies leave town to play the Padres, the Giants will welcome the Dodgers for three games over the weekend. Meanwhile, despite losing both series last week, the Cardinals begin their final homestand of the first half trailing the Giants by just 1 1/2 games, and they have the bottom two teams in the NL East, the Nationals and Braves, on tap this week. Like St. Louis, the Reds also dropped their two series last week and have a fairly soft schedule coming up at home, against the Marlins and Rockies. After Monday’s loss to Miami, Cincinnati is 3 1/2 games behind San Francisco. Even Arizona, which is not in this tier, is within five games of the Giants. There isn’t much separating these five teams, so even if the standings flip some this week, the battle for that last Wild Card spot should last all the way through the summer.

Tier 5 – No Man’s Land (AL Edition)
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Orioles 40-49 1503 1501 3.6% 1473
Rangers 44-46 1488 1498 18.5% 1471
Angels 43-46 1488 1498 3.8% 1468
Twins 43-47 1480 1497 19.5% 1460
Royals 43-48 1472 1498 9.9% 1451
Guardians 40-48 1439 1508 6.0% 1419

Let’s play good news/bad news with a quartet of players from the Rangers and Angels. Good news: Since going 4-for-4 with a home run on May 30, Marcus Semien has posted a 167 wRC+, raising his season line all the way up to 91. Bad news: The Rangers demoted Josh Jung to Triple-A last week after he slumped to a 19 wRC+ in June. Good news: Jo Adell smashed 11 home runs in June and currently has a 129 wRC+ on the season. Bad news: Mike Trout is posting his lowest slugging percentage (.444) since his 2011 cup of coffee. We can caveat the Trout bad news some because his underlying batted ball metrics look pretty good, and despite his relative woes, he’s still running a 120 wRC+. On Monday, the Angels eked out a walk-off victory in the first game of a four-game set against the Rangers.

Regression has come hard for the Guardians. On June 1, they were 31-26 and held the second Wild Card spot, though their run differential was -18. Since then, they have the worst record in the AL, a stretch that included a 10-game losing streak that was finally snapped on Monday. Even after the losing streak, Cleveland’s actual record is three wins ahead of its run differential and four wins ahead of where BaseRuns thinks the team should be. There could be more room to fall this summer.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land (NL Edition)
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Marlins 40-48 1491 1507 0.3% 1462
Pirates 38-53 1486 1513 0.1% 1453
Diamondbacks 44-46 1472 1495 20.1% 1452
Braves 39-50 1456 1494 6.6% 1429

The Pirates are coming off an absolute yo-yo of a week. They did not allow a run in their three-game sweep of the Cardinals, and then they didn’t score a run when they were swept in three games by the Mariners. It was the first time in major league history that a team won three straight shutouts and then lost three straight shutouts. Pittsburgh had actually been playing pretty well ahead of that series in Seattle; the Bucs had scored 30 runs in their sweep of the Mets two weekends ago and scored 13 against the Cardinals. The Pirates finally scored again — three times, in fact — in their series opener against the Royals on Monday, but they allowed Kansas City to score nine runs.

Injuries to the Braves pitching staff have continued to pile up: Last week, Spencer Schwellenbach hit the IL with a fractured elbow. Making matters worse, a few key contributors have been stuck in season-long slumps: Ozzie Albies has been a shell of himself this season, entering Tuesday with a 72 wRC+, and Michael Harris II has been even worse, at 48. If fans want a silver lining, Atlanta activated Jurickson Profar off the restricted list on Wednesday after his 80-game PED suspension, and he hit home runs in his first two games back.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Athletics 37-55 1440 1507 0.2% 1414
Nationals 37-53 1427 1504 0.0% 1403
White Sox 30-60 1394 1502 0.0% 1374
Rockies 21-69 1349 1522 0.0% 1336

On May 31, the Nationals were 28-30 and looked like they could be making a sneaky run for the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve gone 9-23 since then, and after their miserable June and rough start to July, they fired manager Dave Martinez and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo on Sunday night. It’s a massive change for the organization — Rizzo was promoted to GM ahead of the 2009 season, and Martinez had been in his position since 2018, and both navigated the franchise to its only World Series championship in 2019 — and it also throws a bit of chaos into the near future. Washington holds the first overall pick in this year’s draft, exactly one week after the firing, and the trade deadline is less than a month away. That’s a lot for interim general manager Mike DeBartolo to tackle.