Baseball is in the air. Grainy cellphone footage has started to leak out. The excitement for the World Baseball Classic is peaking. The last time we ran these power rankings, the offseason had just begun and teams were still making plans for how they were going to improve their rosters during the winter. This run of the rankings provides a good barometer for which teams took big steps forward with their splashy signings and big trades, and which ones have been left in the dust. Today I’ll cover the teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026, with those forecast for a .500 or better record to follow on Monday.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these pre-spring training rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections — now powered by both the 2026 Steamer and 2026 ZiPS projections — and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. First up are the rankings for teams 18-30, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the last offseason run of the power rankings in November.

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It’s been a surprisingly quiet offseason for the Padres. They re-signed Michael King — a near necessity after seeing Dylan Cease depart in free agency and losing Yu Darvish for the season to elbow surgery — and Joe Musgrove should be healthy after missing all of 2025 with his own elbow surgery. But even with those two starters back in the fold, the rotation looks frighteningly shallow. You could probably say that about the entire roster, though. Years of win-now trades have depleted the farm system, and the upper minors look pretty devoid of meaningful depth. Maybe that won’t be a problem if everyone stays healthy, but the grind of the regular season means San Diego will inevitably have to dip into that depth at some point.

If the Rangers were going to squeeze every last ounce from this contention window that brought them a championship back in 2023, they needed to make some pretty dramatic moves this offseason. Trading Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo? Check. Sending a host of prospects to the Nationals for MacKenzie Gore? Check. Will it be enough to challenge the Mariners and Astros for the AL West crown? The projections aren’t convinced. Adding Gore to the starting rotation shifts the weight of expectations off of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker’s shoulders, but the pitching staff still looks weaker than the unit that led the majors in run prevention last year. On the offensive side of things, if you squint, you can see a healthy season from Corey Seager, a big step forward from Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, and bounce-back campaigns from Joc Pederson and Jake Burger all powering an improved lineup. But that’s a lot of things that need to go right for Texas to hit its 90th-percentile win projection.

The Twins are in the midst of a significant transition at the organizational level. Last week, the team announced that it had “mutually agreed to part ways” with the president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey. He had been at the helm since 2016, and combined with the huge teardown last summer, his departure represents a huge shift in direction for the franchise. Most of the moves the Twins have made this offseason have been on the fringes: They signed Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers to short-term deals and have made a handful of small trades to clear space on their 40-man roster. And yet, they still have a strong core of players — including Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton — and a trio of young position players — Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins, and Emmanuel Rodriguez — who could make an impact this year. The projections have them a hair below .500 right now, but it feels like that can swing dramatically depending on if they stick with the guys they have now or decide to continue selling off the talent they have left this summer.

The Reds blasted just 167 home runs last year, 10th fewest in the majors and a surprisingly low total for a team that calls Great American Ballpark home. Reuniting with Eugenio Suárez and his powerful bat should help in that regard. The rest of the lineup still has plenty of question marks. Will Elly De La Cruz bounce back after playing through a quad injury last summer? Can any of Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, or Noelvi Marte emerge as stars? Fortunately, the pitching staff looks like it will continue to be a strength. Led by Hunter Greene, the starting rotation should carry Cincinnati to the fringe of the NL Wild Card race. It worked out for the Reds last year, maybe lightning will strike twice.

The A’s continued to fortify the foundations of their roster by handing out a pair of seven-year contract extensions to Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson this offseason. Along with Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz, those five players are signed or under team control through at least 2029. That means this core will still be with the team for its expected move to Las Vegas in a few years. Adding to the excitement is 19-year-old top prospect Leo De Vries, the prize from last summer’s Mason Miller trade who is developing quickly. Yet, for all that thump on offense, the less that’s said about the pitching staff, the better. That puts the A’s in an awkward position, where their lineup is plenty good enough to contend but their pitchers are lagging far behind. There are some promising young arms coming up through the organization, but they are still a few years away. In the meantime, the hurlers at the major league level will struggle to survive in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.

The Rays snuck their way into three separate three-team deals this offseason, a near perfect encapsulation of their incremental approach to roster building. And with every other team in the AL East looking like a powerhouse, this year seems like a perfect moment for Tampa Bay to reset the roster and start building for its next contention window. Out are Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Shane Baz. In are Gavin Lux — probably a temporary stopgap at second base — and a collection of prospects to restock the farm system. Thankfully, Junior Caminero looks like a star to build around, and the pitching staff looks solid with the hopefully healthy return of Shane McClanahan.

Even if the rest of their offseason was quiet, it has to be seen as a success for the Guardians after they signed José Ramírez to a seven-year contract extension that should keep him in Cleveland through the end of his career. Locking up a future Hall of Famer to a team-friendly deal is something to be celebrated, especially since Ramírez has a pretty good shot at becoming the franchise’s best player of the last 100 years. But if you did want to quibble with the rest of the Guardians’ lack of activity this offseason, you could point to the small payroll savings they negotiated via Ramírez’s deal and the lack of reinvestment in the roster. Maybe those funds will trickle down to the roster in the near future, but the current group is pretty flawed. The Guardians were pretty lucky to win the AL Central last year, and the projections see them as the fourth-best team in that division heading into this season.

The Marlins did well to trade away from a position of strength — their starting rotation — to hopefully acquire an impact bat in Owen Caissie and restock their farm system with a gaggle of prospects. Eury Pérez took a big step forward last year after recovering from Tommy John surgery, and top pitching prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling should get an opportunity to debut this year. These are small steps toward building a contender in Miami, but it feels like there’s some forward momentum here.

Chaim Bloom started tearing down the Cardinals as soon as he was installed as their president of baseball operations this offseason. He found trade partners for Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray, removing the largest contracts on the team’s books, and also dealt Willson Contreras and Brendan Donovan for a bunch of prospects and draft picks. It’s a promising start to the Cardinals’ rebuild, and I’d expect more moves this summer. Meanwhile, top prospect JJ Wetherholt should have an opportunity to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. That should give fans a glimpse of the future while the front office sorts out how to build a contender around him.

You can’t fault the Angels for attempting to raise their ceiling a little bit. They brought in five pitchers this offseason — Grayson Rodriguez, Alek Manoah, Jordan Romano, Kirby Yates, and Drew Pomeranz — who have each been fantastic at some point in the past, but have also dealt with significant injuries that have sapped their effectiveness. It’s a fine gamble to make, with the hope that at least one or two of them will actually make an impact this year. They also re-signed third baseman Yoán Moncada and acquired outfielder Josh Lowe, who will replace Taylor Ward in the outfield after they sent him to Baltimore in the Rodriguez deal. Will it be enough to lift the Halos out of their doldrums? No, probably not, but at least they’re trying something a little different.

New president of baseball operations Paul Toboni got right to work rebuilding the Nationals this winter. He dealt away MacKenzie Gore in the offseason’s biggest trade and made a savvy move to get catcher Harry Ford from the Mariners for lefty reliever Jose A. Ferrer. What these moves indicate is that Washington is about to embark on another rebuilding cycle after the last one petered out under former GM Mike Rizzo. James Wood is young enough, and under team control for long enough, that he should still be considered a big part of the team’s future. The same might not be true for CJ Abrams, though with three years left of control, the Nats shouldn’t be in a hurry to move on from their shortstop.

The White Sox had a pretty interesting offseason. Of course, the biggest headline was the signing of Munetaka Murakami to a two-year deal. It’s a huge risk, but it’s an exciting move that could pay off handsomely if Murakami adjusts to MLB pitching quickly. Chicago also moved on from Luis Robert Jr. and used some of the payroll savings to take Jordan Hicks’s contract off Boston’s hands in order to get an interesting pitching prospect in David Sandlin. With Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel already making an impact in the majors, and Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith close to debuting, the shape of an interesting team is starting to emerge on the South Side.

Unlike some of the other front office hires this offseason, Paul DePodesta has taken a pretty quiet approach to reshaping the roster. The moves he’s made have all been focused on improving the margins of the roster. The Rockies have signed Willi Castro and Michael Lorenzen and traded for Jake McCarthy and Edouard Julien. The four newcomers provide some much-needed depth, but none of them really raises the ceiling of the ball club. I guess we’ll have to wait for this summer to see if there are any impactful trades in the offing.

The hot stove has started to heat up, but it’s still pretty early in the offseason. On Tuesday, I took stock of how the early 2026 projections viewed the bottom 18 teams in baseball as they’re currently constructed. Today, I’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish with a .500 or better record in 2026. This exercise should give us a pretty good idea of which clubs would be ready to compete if the season started today, and which ones still have work to do this offseason.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Right now, our Depth Charts projections are powered entirely by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections will be folded in later in the offseason.

First up are the rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times when I take editorial liberties in grouping teams together — but generally, the order is consistent. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. The rankings for teams 18–30 have been updated with the handful of moves that occurred around baseball since Part I was published. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re currently in the lull between the end of the World Series and the real start of hot stove season. Teams are just about done with the annual housekeeping necessary to prepare their rosters for the winter — the 40-man deadline is later today, while the non-tender deadline is Friday — but Josh Naylor aside, the big free agent moves are still on the horizon. That means it’s the perfect time to take stock of how each team measures up. The rankings below represent each team as it is currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. That should give us a pretty good idea of which clubs would be ready to compete if the season started today, and which ones still have work to do this offseason. Today I’ll cover the teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026, with those forecast for a .500 or better record to follow later this week.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Right now, our Depth Charts projections are powered entirely by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections will be folded in later in the offseason.

First up are the rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times when I take editorial liberties in grouping teams together — but generally, the order is consistent. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

After the last four playoff spots were decided during a wild final weekend of the regular season, the postseason is finally upon us. The 12-team field features a number of ballclubs that were playing their best baseball down the stretch in September, plus a few teams that backed into the playoffs in the midst of some worrying slumps. But the slate is wiped clean in October, and anything can happen in the postseason. Here’s a look at the 12 playoff teams and how they stack up against each other.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. Since we’ve reached the postseason, I’ve removed the playoff odds weighting to our raw Elo calculations and presented the teams in the tiers below based on our odds of them winning the World Series. If you’re curious about how your team finished in the standard regular season power rankings, the full table can be found at the bottom of this article. Read the rest of this entry »

The final week of the regular season is upon us, and the playoff picture in both leagues is far from settled. It should be a fun week of baseball as everything sorts itself out before the postseason begins.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

All of a sudden the NL Wild Card race looks a lot more exciting, while the playoff picture in the AL had a big shakeup over the weekend. It’s bound to be an exciting final two weeks of the regular season.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Read the rest of this entry »

The playoff race in the National League looks pretty settled, but the door to capturing a Wild Card spot in the American League looks like it has cracked open a little bit. There are a handful of teams still looking to make a last minute run, though with less than a month left in the season, time is running out for those long shots.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re looking for a team to make a surprise run to the playoffs, the final month of the season likely won’t be that exciting; there are just three teams on the fringe of the postseason picture, and none of them have playoff odds higher than 20%. But with 12 teams jockeying for their playoff position and a handful of division races left to be decided, there’s still potential for a good bit of intrigue between now and October.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

After a week hiatus, these power rankings are back… and nothing much has changed in the playoff picture. The National League is particularly stratified, even if the NL West is a bit closer than it was two weeks ago, and although there are a few more longshots in the American League, the 12-team field looks pretty settled right now.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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Well, the Brewers finally lost a game in the month of August. Their 14-game winning streak propelled their lead in the NL Central from one game ahead of the Cubs on July 31 to an eight-game gap, and they have the best record in the majors by six games. They’ve barely felt the impact of Jackson Chourio’s hamstring injury, which he suffered a few weeks ago, because nearly everyone else in their lineup is on fire. Seven of the eight Milwaukee players who have collected at least 50 plate appearances in August are running a 125 wRC+ or higher for the month. The Brew Crew will have an opportunity to truly bury the Cubs in the standings, as those two rivals have a five-game series on the schedule this week, beginning with a doubleheader on Monday at Wrigley Field.

The Blue Jays extended their lead in the AL East to five games by going 4-2 last week against the Cubs and Rangers. They might not be the most complete team in the AL, but as long as their superstars are producing, they look very hard to beat. To wit: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. blasted his sixth home run of the month on Sunday, Bo Bichette has returned to form after his terrible 2024 season, and George Springer was just activated off the IL on Saturday.

It took him a few weeks to acclimate to the big leagues, but beginning with a 3-for-6 showing on June 28, Roman Anthony has slashed .322/.433/.409 (a 158 wRC+) in 40 games. And he’ll be anchoring this lineup for a long time to come, as Boston signed him to a huge extension a few weeks ago. After treading water in the Wild Card race with a 3-3 record last week, the Red Sox have a huge four-game series against the Yankees looming this weekend in the Bronx.

The Dodgers and Padres entered last weekend’s series in Los Angeles on very different trajectories. After suffering a sweep at the hands of the Angels, the Dodgers dropped from first place in the NL West for the first time since late April. Meanwhile, San Diego had been surging, winners of five straight series with a 14-3 record over its previous 17 games. Then, naturally, Los Angeles won all three games to flip the momentum of both teams. The Dodgers once again lead the division, by two games entering this week, but this race is far from over, despite our playoff odds giving the Padres just a 16.1% shot at winning the West. We’ll see how those odds move after the two teams match up for three games in San Diego this weekend in their final meeting of the regular season.

The Phillies extended their lead in the NL East from half a game on August 4 to five games entering Monday, but they are now facing the prolonged absence of Zack Wheeler, who was placed on the IL on Sunday with a blood clot in his shoulder. The returns of both Aaron Nola and Alec Bohm from their respective injuries should soften the blow a bit, and Philadelphia should have the rotation depth to get by without Wheeler in the regular season. However, it’s quite possible the Phillies won’t have their best pitcher back for October. That’s a major concern in what should be a very competitive NL postseason field.

Even if the Cubs do well in their huge five-game set against the Brewers this week, it probably won’t be enough to disturb Milwaukee’s chances of winning the division. Instead, a good performance should allow Chicago to regain some of the momentum it has lost. When the Cubs took two out of three games from the Pirates over the weekend, it marked just the third time the North Siders have won a series in the four weeks since July 21, a span of eight series.

It looks like the Tigers have put their July swoon behind them. They couldn’t complete the four-game sweep of the Twins on Sunday, but they’ve now won three straight series and have gone 13-7 over their last 20 games. The Astros will visit Detroit this week in a showdown between two of the best teams in the AL.

The Mariners had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday, but their surge earned them a share of the AL West lead for a very brief moment. From there, though, Seattle faltered again, losing both of its series last week, against the Orioles and the Mets, and slipping to 1 1/2 games behind the Astros in the West. Even so, things are looking up for the Mariners: With Bryce Miller set to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, the M’s will have all five of their top starters active and healthy for the first time this season. Meanwhile, after a frigid three weeks coming out of the All-Star break, Cal Raleigh is on fire once again. Over his last nine games, Big Dumper is slashing .303/.395/.818 with five home runs and a 231 wRC+.

As for the Astros, you can chalk up another injury on their long ledger this season. This time it’s a shoulder injury to Josh Hader, which is expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, though the door is still slightly open for an October return if everything heals well. In better news, Yordan Alvarez is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment this week.

Since being activated from the IL on August 5, Aaron Judge has posted a very-mortal-though-still-solid .229/.426/.429 slash line (140 wRC+). No matter, the Yankees have gone 7-4 with Judge back in the lineup and have crawled back within a half game of the Red Sox and Mariners for the top Wild Card spot in the AL.

Things got pretty dicy for New York’s National League team, as the Mets slogged through a brutal 2-14 stretch and let the Reds close the gap considerably in the Wild Card standings. New York never let go of that final spot, and its back-to-back wins against the Mariners over the weekend provided a little bit of breathing room, but this is still a much tighter race than anyone in Queens would like. The good news for the Mets is that their two Franciscos in are heating up; Lindor tallied 14 hits and three home runs last week, and Alvarez has posted a .323/.408/.645 slash line (193 wRC+) since being recalled from Triple-A on July 21.

With the Mets stumbling, the Reds looked like they were poised to pull into a playoff position, especially after they won their series against the Phillies heading into last weekend. But Cincinnati ran into the Brewers at exactly the wrong time, losing the first two games before snapping Milwaukee’s 14-game winning streak in extra innings on Sunday. Unfortunately, as soon as the Reds activated Hunter Greene off the IL, Chase Burns switched places with him after suffering a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. For now, manager Terry Francona is hoping for the best-case scenario, that Burns can resume throwing soon and return before the end of August. However, Reds fans shouldn’t get too excited just yet, as the organization will surely be cautious with the 22-year-old’s rehab and almost certainly limit his workload the rest of the way.

The three teams in this tier are desperately trying to hang on in the AL Wild Card race. The Guardians fell to 3 1/2 games behind the Yankees for the final playoff spot after getting swept by the Braves at home over the weekend. It was Cleveland’s first series loss since late July. Even with those three losses, the Guards still have the AL’s best record since July 7 (23-12). Meanwhile, the Royals have been nearly as good over that same span (20-13). Following a three-game sweep of White Sox, Kansas City enters this week just a half-game behind Cleveland in the standings.

On the other side of the coin, the Rangers are in the middle of what could be season-crushing skid. On July 27, Texas reached a season-best six games over .500; since then, the team has gone 6-13 and slipped below .500 again. This week probably represents the last gasp of hope for the Rangers to return to the Wild Card race. They travel to Kansas City for four games before hosting the Guardians for a three-game set this weekend.

It was fun while it lasted, but you can probably stick a fork in any hope of a surprise Wild Card run from the Marlins. After sweeping the Yankees three weekends ago to reach .500, they’ve won just four of their last 14 and are now seven games behind the Mets for the final playoff spot. To make matters worse, Kyle Stowers, Miami’s best hitter this season, was just placed on the IL with an oblique strain. At least the Marlins can point to their competitive stretch in July and dream about returning to contention sooner rather than later.

It’s far too little, too late, but the Braves are finally on a roll. They swept the Guardians last weekend and are now 9-2 over their last 11 games. The key to this late-season surge has been the resurgence of Michael Harris II. After making some swing adjustments in early July, he’s slashing .386/.402/.719 (210 wRC+) since the All-Star break. If Atlanta doesn’t have to worry about Harris’ bat moving forward, it gives the organization one less thing to address in what has suddenly become a hugely important offseason.

Not to discount what Harris has done lately, but the two best hitters in baseball during the second half of the season both play for the Athletics. You probably know about the heater that Nick Kurtz is on, but Shea Langeliers has been almost as good over the last month. Both of those guys blasted home runs on Sunday — for Langeliers, it was his major league-leading 14th since the All-Star break. The A’s will need to figure out how to pitch in their temporary home in Sacramento, but their offense certainly looks like it’s for real.

The Twins’ expected post-deadline crash hasn’t exactly arrived. Sure, they went 2-5 against the Yankees and Tigers last week, but they are only a game below .500 since they sold nearly every spare part off their roster. The fantastic play of Luke Keaschall is a big reason why they’re still playing like a competitive team; he’s posted a 149 wRC+ since being activated off the IL on August 5. The biggest baseball news in Minnesota last week was the announcement that the Pohlad family will remain principal owners of the team after exploring a sale. The optics of this announcement stink. The Twins just traded away a huge chunk of the roster and dumped Carlos Correa off the payroll. To turn around and say this teardown was “part of the process” looks like an extension of the same penny pinching that led to these past two disappointing seasons. The hope established in 2023, when they won their first playoff series in two decades, feels like a long, long time ago.

With a pair of series wins over the Cardinals and Diamondbacks last week, the Rockies are now playing ahead of the historically bad pace of the 2024 White Sox. Colorado has to win just seven games before the end of the season to avoid tying Chicago’s record of futility. That certainly feels doable, even if the Rockies have one of the most difficult remaining schedules in baseball.

Have you caught your breath yet from that wild and busy trade deadline? Me neither, but it sure was a blast. And we also now have a better sense of where teams stand heading into the stretch run of the season.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning.

Read the rest of this entry »