FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 28–August 3

Have you caught your breath yet from that wild and busy trade deadline? Me neither, but it sure was a blast. And we also now have a better sense of where teams stand heading into the stretch run of the season.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning.

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Let’s get the bad news out of the way first: The Brewers placed both Jackson Chourio and Jacob Misiorowski on the IL last week. It sounds like Misiorowski’s tibia contusion isn’t as serious as Chourio’s strained hamstring, but it’s a really inopportune time for Milwaukee to lose two of its most exciting and important players. Now, the good news: In a battle for the top of the NL Central, the Brewers won two of three against the Cubs last week and then swept the Nationals over the weekend for good measure. They’re three games ahead of Chicago now and boast the best record in baseball. The Brewers were oddly passive at the trade deadline, acquiring only a pair of injured pitchers from the Diamondbacks — reliever Shelby Miller, who is recovering from a strained forearm but could be back within the next week or so, and lefty starter Jordan Montgomery, who is out for the year after having Tommy John surgery in April — and bench outfielder Brandon Lockridge from the Padres in exchange for lefty starter Nestor Cortes. That seems hardly sufficient on the surface, but the Brewers have surprised before with supposedly lean rosters.

It was a rough week for the Blue Jays. They lost both of their series last week and were outscored 38-19 in a four-game set against the Orioles. They were one of the few teams who traded for starting pitching help, bringing in Shane Bieber for the stretch run. Unfortunately, he’s still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, and Toronto could really use the pitching help now.

The Red Sox had a baffling approach to the trade deadline. They were connected to nearly every big name player on the market, but beyond showing up all over the We Tried Tracker, they came away with just two uninspiring pitchers: Dustin May and Steven Matz. No matter. Rather than let the frustrating trade market derail their momentum, the Sox went out and swept the Astros over the weekend and then beat the Royals on Monday night to extend their winning streak to six. Boston has now leapfrogged the Yankees in the AL Wild Card standings and has a 21-7 record since the beginning of July, the best record in the AL and tied with the Brewers for the best in the majors during that span.

The Cubs didn’t get their headlining pitching upgrade at the deadline, instead settling for a few smaller deals to improve their depth (and now Michael Soroka is headed to the IL with a shoulder injury after his first start with Chicago). With both Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad close to returning from their respective injuries, perhaps the Cubs were counting on some internal reinforcements this month. Likewise, the Dodgers were fairly quiet at the trade deadline, but fortunately for them, two key players just returned from the IL; Blake Snell was activated last week and looked sharp in his first start since April, and Max Muncy returned from his knee injury on Monday. However, as if to somewhat offset the impact of Muncy’s return, the Dodgers placed Tommy Edman on the IL with an ankle sprain.

Perhaps inspired by their sweep of the Mets earlier in the week, the Padres made a flurry of moves on deadline day, headlined by their acquisition of Mason Miller. (Then again, A.J. Preller is always inspired to make trades.) With some of the other NL Wild Card hopefuls faltering recently, San Diego was never really in any danger of falling out of the playoff picture, but these midseason reinforcements solidify the roster ahead of the stretch run. As for the Mets, they tumbled down the standings with just one win in six games last week and suffered through an extra-innings loss on Monday, negating nearly all the progress they had made with their seven-game winning streak a few weeks ago. Still, in a seller’s market for relief pitchers, they were one of the most aggressive buyers, hoping that with so many high-leverage bullpen arms, they’ll be able to shorten games enough to win despite a starting rotation that’s been baseball’s third worst by WAR (2.1) since the start of June.

The Astros made a splash by bringing Carlos Correa back to Houston last week. This version of Correa isn’t the same as the guy who led Houston to a championship in 2017 and five straight ALCS appearances, but his presence will certainly help its injury-plagued lineup. Of course, immediately after making this huge trade, the Astros were swept in Boston over the weekend. Their lead over the Mariners in the AL West is down to three games.

Speaking of the Mariners, no AL team improved its ZiPS playoff odds more at the trade deadline than they did. Eugenio Suárez brought the good vibes — and his potent bat — back to Seattle, and the team responded with a huge series win over the Rangers. Julio Rodríguez hit his 100th career home run on Sunday and became the first player in major league history to begin his career with four straight 20/20 seasons. The Mariners have a bit of a lull in their schedule ahead; they won’t face another AL contender until they travel to Houston in late September, and they have just four series against teams with a record over .500 between now and then.

It was a weekend in Miami to forget for the Yankees. They added David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and Jake Bird on Thursday to improve their bullpen, and as fate would have it, those three relievers allowed nine runs to score in Friday’s ugly 13-12 walk-off loss to the Marlins. The Fish went on to sweep New York in three games. The Yanks did activate reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil off the IL on Sunday, leading to the release of Marcus Stroman. That means they’re placing a lot of faith in Gil and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler to get them to the postseason, but once (if) they’re in the playoffs, the deep bullpen should be able to cover for a thin starting rotation. The Yankees once again faltered on Monday, losing the first game of a huge series against the Rangers in walk-off fashion, with Devin Williams blowing the save in the ninth and Bird giving up the decisive three-run blast to Josh Jung in the 10th. Remarkably, on Tuesday morning, the Yankees announced that they had optioned Bird to Triple-A after Monday’s debacle. In three appearances with his new club, he allowed seven runs (six earned) in two innings.

It’s hard to figure out what to make of the Rangers right now; they were one of the hottest teams coming out of the All-Star break, winning eight of nine to start the second half, but they went 2-5 last week and have fallen to 1 1/2 games behind the Mariners in the AL Wild Card race. Texas’ pitching is still dominant, bolstered by the addition of Merrill Kelly and a host of solid relievers, but the lineup has been so inconsistent. The Rangers tied for the second-most runs scored in July, though their wRC+ ranked 11th. Still, with such a strong run-prevention unit in place, it feels like they’ll be in the mix for that final Wild Card spot through the end of the season.

With their sweep of the Yankees last weekend, the Marlins clawed their way back to .500. They have the second-best record in baseball since June 20 and the only series they’ve lost in that time was to the Brewers, the only team with a better record during this stretch. Perhaps inspired by this hot streak, Miami opted to hold onto Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera instead of dealing them away at the trade deadline. At 6 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card race, they’re a pretty extreme longshot — our Playoff Odds give them just a 1.6% chance to reach the postseason — but they’re doing their best to make the Padres (and maybe even the Mets and Phillies) nervous. If nothing else, this surprising surge may have convinced the front office that this group is closer to its next contention window than initially expected, thus giving the Marlins reason not to trade any of their controllable starters.

Just a few days ahead of the trade deadline, the Guardians were dealt a pretty serious blow when Emmanuel Clase was placed on administrative leave pending an investigation into irregular betting activity. Before then, it was unclear if they were looking to sell at the deadline, but the loss of Clase seems to have forced their hand, as it both removed him from their bullpen and prevented them from dealing him to a contender. Despite all that drama, Cleveland won four of six last week, climbed back over .500, and pulled to just 2 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card standings.

The Guardians aren’t the only AL Central team hanging around on the fringe of the Wild Card race: The Royals won their weekend series against the Blue Jays with a walk-off, extra-innings win on Sunday. Kansas City is now 17-11 since the beginning of July and quietly made a handful of smart additions at the trade deadline. Just last season, the Royals were one of two AL Central teams that came out of nowhere to claim a Wild Card spot with an excellent second half; they are hoping to do the same this year.

Bless the Angels for believing they could sneak into the AL playoff picture with a strong second half. At least this round of buying wasn’t as dramatic as their last-ditch attempt to compete in 2023 during Shohei Ohtani’s final months on the roster. Of course, as soon as they shored up their bullpen with a small trade on Wednesday, they went out and lost their weekend series against the White Sox to drop to five games back in the Wild Card race.

The A’s made the surprising decision to trade away closer Mason Miller, but they came away from that deal with Leo De Vries, the best prospect moved at the deadline. A team in their position doesn’t need a top relief arm, but an 18-year-old phenom could be a franchise pillar for years to come. What’s more interesting is that the A’s are actually playing some excellent baseball right now. Before losing two in a row to the Diamondbacks last weekend, they had won seven of eight, including a four-game sweep of the Astros in Houston and a series win over the Mariners. Leading the way is slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who may have surpassed his teammate and All-Star Game starting shortstop Jacob Wilson as the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. Unfortunately, Wilson was placed on the IL last week with a fractured left forearm.

Since June 13, the day they tied the Dodgers in the standings atop the NL West, the Giants have gone 15-28, the second-worst record in baseball in that span. It’s safe to say their acquisition of Rafael Devers hasn’t paid off this season. Still, with a bunch of games against division rivals remaining on the schedule, San Francisco is in a good position to play spoiler during the final two months of the season.

Things really went sideways in Minnesota this year. Between all the injuries and significant steps back from Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, it was pretty clear this was a lost season after just a month of play. The 13-game winning streak to start the month of May gave the Twins a false sense of hope, but their records in June and July were even worse than their rough start in April. The result was one of the most dramatic trade deadline sell-offs we’ve seen in recent history. Minnesota did well to target nearly ready prospects and post-hype sleepers in its trades last week, which makes this more of a reset than a full-blown teardown, especially because the organization held onto Joe Ryan, but you have to wonder how much the potential sale of the franchise motivated all these moves.

In third baseman Eugenio Suárez and first baseman Josh Naylor, the Diamondbacks had the two best rental bats on the market, and despite plenty of rumors seemingly driving up the price on Suárez, they wound up with some pretty lackluster prospects — none graded above a 45 FV — in return. Their path back to competitiveness is a little more complicated than the two other teams in this tier; Zac Gallen is a free agent at the end of the season and the timing of Corbin Burnes’ Tommy John surgery likely means he’ll miss most of next year, too. Pitching is going to be a huge need for them this offseason.

You can breathe a sigh of relief. The White Sox won their 42nd game on Saturday, surpassing their win total from last year. Shockingly, they’ve scored the fourth-most runs in baseball since the All-Star break and Luis Robert Jr. has compiled a .355/.423/.516 slash line (a 161 wRC+) since being activated off the IL on July 8. That doesn’t excuse Chicago’s refusal to trade him at the deadline, but it does mean the lineup should continue to benefit from his presence through the end of the season.

The Rockies have also played a bit better during the second half. They’ve won three straight home series and enjoyed an absolutely bonkers come-from-behind, walk-off victory against the Pirates, 17-16, on Friday. More importantly, these recent home wins have pushed Colorado’s winning percentage ahead of the historically bad pace the White Sox set last year.