Archive for Power Rankings

FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 23–29

As the calendar turns to July, the AL is a bit of a mess. The six teams that currently hold playoff berths are the only ones with winning records. The opposite is true in the NL, where there are nine teams over .500. That landscape should make for a very interesting trade deadline.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Dodgers 53-32 1591 1500 99.8% 1607 0
2 Astros 50-34 1585 1497 96.5% 1601 2
3 Tigers 53-32 1559 1488 99.0% 1582 0
4 Rays 47-37 1563 1506 79.0% 1572 2
5 Phillies 49-35 1546 1496 89.8% 1559 -3
6 Cubs 49-35 1545 1510 83.6% 1558 -1
7 Yankees 48-35 1536 1498 95.9% 1553 0
8 Brewers 47-37 1545 1485 57.3% 1547 0
9 Cardinals 47-38 1548 1508 48.7% 1547 3
10 Blue Jays 45-38 1539 1506 63.3% 1543 0
11 Reds 44-40 1530 1498 16.5% 1516 4
12 Mets 48-37 1499 1485 77.4% 1512 -3
13 Mariners 43-40 1505 1498 61.3% 1503 3
14 Padres 45-38 1503 1497 42.3% 1502 0
15 Angels 41-42 1499 1496 6.6% 1486 4
16 Giants 45-39 1482 1490 41.8% 1481 -5
17 Red Sox 41-44 1493 1500 14.7% 1475 -4
18 Rangers 41-43 1487 1498 20.0% 1473 2
19 Diamondbacks 41-42 1482 1497 18.1% 1464 -1
20 Marlins 37-45 1490 1507 0.2% 1463 6
21 Orioles 36-47 1489 1502 3.5% 1462 3
22 Guardians 40-42 1472 1505 21.9% 1461 -5
23 Braves 38-45 1484 1494 24.3% 1458 -1
24 Twins 40-44 1475 1495 26.3% 1458 -1
25 Pirates 35-50 1482 1512 0.1% 1452 0
26 Royals 39-45 1459 1498 11.8% 1441 -5
27 Athletics 34-52 1431 1506 0.3% 1408 0
28 Nationals 35-49 1429 1502 0.0% 1407 0
29 White Sox 28-56 1401 1504 0.0% 1382 0
30 Rockies 19-65 1348 1524 0.0% 1335 0

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Dodgers 53-32 1591 1500 99.8% 1607
Astros 50-34 1585 1497 96.5% 1601

After wrapping up a 5-1 week with a series win over the Royals, the Dodgers have now won 15 of their last 20 games. That little swoon they toiled through toward the end of May is firmly in the rearview mirror. No one in the lineup is hotter than Max Muncy, who finished June with a .333/.459/.654 slash line, seven home runs and a 205 wRC+. The real turning point for Muncy came on April 30, when he started wearing glasses. Since then, he has a 178 wRC+ across 51 games, after posting a woeful wRC+ of 58 through his first 28 games of the season.

The Astros also went 5-1 last week, though they did it against two of NL’s top teams, the Phillies and the Cubs. Since Yordan Alvarez injured his hand on May 2, Houston has the best record in baseball, 34-19, and has built a huge 6 1/2-game lead in the AL West. The Astros can thank three guys for carrying the load for the offense while Alvarez has been sidelined: Jeremy Peña (162 wRC+ since May 2), Isaac Paredes (151), and Cam Smith (145). As for Alvarez, he’s ramping up his rehab and will begin to face live pitching this week.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Tigers 53-32 1559 1488 99.0% 1582
Rays 47-37 1563 1506 79.0% 1572

The Tigers won their weekend series against the Twins with two emphatic wins on Saturday and Sunday. In their 10-5 victory on Saturday, Riley Greene and Zach McKinstry were the standouts, each collecting a home run and three hits. Tarik Skubal took center stage on Sunday, firing seven shutout innings with 13 punchouts while allowing just two baserunners.

The Rays had a wild weekend in Baltimore; they were on the wrong end of a 22-8 blowout on Friday, turned things around with an 11-3 victory on Saturday, and finally lost the series with a relatively tame 5-1 loss on Sunday. Despite the small setback, Tampa Bay still leads the AL Wild Card race and has closed the gap in the AL East to just 1 1/2 games.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Phillies 49-35 1546 1496 89.8% 1559
Cubs 49-35 1545 1510 83.6% 1558
Yankees 48-35 1536 1498 95.9% 1553
Brewers 47-37 1545 1485 57.3% 1547
Cardinals 47-38 1548 1508 48.7% 1547
Blue Jays 45-38 1539 1506 63.3% 1543

Although the Cubs have led the NL Central for nearly the entire season, a .500 record in June has thrown the door open for the Brewers and Cardinals to make it true three-team race for the division. Chicago was 6 1/2 games ahead as recently as June 17, but that lead has now dwindled to two games. Milwaukee and St. Louis deserve credit for taking advantage of this month-long slump from the Cubs. Before a frustrating extra-innings loss on Sunday, the Brew Crew had won 22 of their previous 30 games, while the Cards are in the midst of an 11-4 stretch.

Last week, the Phillies were swept in Houston despite allowing just five runs during the three-game series because they scored just one of their own. They enjoyed a 13-run outburst in Atlanta on Friday, but then combined for three runs during the final two games of the series. That was enough to take two of three from the Braves thanks to another phenomenal outing from Ranger Suárez on Sunday, who tossed seven innings of one-run ball while striking out eight. He’s allowed a total of 10 runs across his last 10 starts. The good news is Bryce Harper is on track to return from the IL at some point this week when Philadelphia returns home to face the Padres and Reds.

The Yankees earned a much-needed weekend series win over the Athletics to bring their June record to 13-13, a stretch that has seriously loosened their grip on the AL East. After leading by as many as 6 1/2 games during the first week of this month, they enter the final day of June with just a 1 1/2-game cushion over the Rays. New York’s bats have gone cold as the weather has warmed up. Since June 1, the Yankees are running a 103 wRC+, down from their best-in-baseball 128 wRC+ over the first two months of the season. They begin this week with a huge four-game set on the road against the third-place Blue Jays, who are 19-11 over their last 30 games and just three games behind New York in the standings.

Tier 4 – The NL Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Reds 44-40 1530 1498 16.5% 1516
Mets 48-37 1499 1485 77.4% 1512
Padres 45-38 1503 1497 42.3% 1502
Giants 45-39 1482 1490 41.8% 1481

The Mets are in a full tailspin after their nightmarish weekend in Pittsburgh, where they were swept by the putrid Pirates and allowed 30 runs across the three-game set. With a 12-1 drubbing on Sunday, New York has now dropped 13 of its last 16 games. The starting rotation was already down three members when Griffin Canning ruptured his Achilles’ tendon on Thursday. The lone bright spot for the Mets this month has been Juan Soto’s continued resurgence; he blasted three home runs last week to bring his June total up to 11.

Ignore the Reds at your own peril. Chase Burns made his debut last week, striking out eight Yankees and flashing the electric stuff that made him Cincinnati’s top prospect. Then, on Sunday, Elly De La Cruz sparked an exciting ninth-inning comeback to secure a huge series win over the Padres and continue his scorcher of a month; he’s slashing .348/.429/.674 for a 195 wRC+ with one more game to play in June. The Reds are lurking in both the NL Central (five games back) and in the NL Wild Card race (2 1/2 games back), and all that young talent looks like it’s finally driving some success at the big league level.

The Rafael Devers trade hasn’t sparked a turnaround for the Giants offense. Quite the opposite, in fact; they’re 4-8 since acquiring him two weeks ago, and he’s slashing .217/.333/.391 with his new team. Last week was especially brutal, as San Francisco went 1-5 against the Marlins and White Sox to fall to 1 1/2 games out in the NL Wild Card standings. The Giants enter this week with a four-game series against the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

Tier 5 – The AL Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Mariners 43-40 1505 1498 61.3% 1503
Angels 41-42 1499 1496 6.6% 1486
Red Sox 41-44 1493 1500 14.7% 1475
Rangers 41-43 1487 1498 20.0% 1473

The Mariners took two of three from the Rangers in Texas this weekend, with every game going into extra innings — the first time that’s happened in any three-game series since 2015. Seattle hosts the Royals and Pirates this week before closing out the first half on the road against the Yankees and Tigers. Meanwhile, despite boasting the best pitching staff in baseball, the Rangers are fourth in the AL West standings because their lineup has continued to struggle. On the bright side, Corey Seager is showing some signs of life. The Texas shortstop bashed three home runs against the Mariners and has a 163 wRC+ over his last 14 games.

Prior to their 15-run outburst on Saturday, the Red Sox had scored just 2.8 runs per game in the 10 games since trading away Rafael Devers. Neither Roman Anthony (87 wRC+) nor Marcelo Mayer (84 wRC+) has had much success against big league pitching thus far, and the lineup looks particularly punchless without Devers anchoring it. Masataka Yoshida is expected to begin a rehab assignment this week and Alex Bregman ramped up his baseball activities over the weekend, but those reinforcements likely won’t return until after the All-Star break. By then it could be too late for them to make a significant impact on Boston’s plans ahead of the trade deadline.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Diamondbacks 41-42 1482 1497 18.1% 1464
Marlins 37-45 1490 1507 0.2% 1463
Orioles 36-47 1489 1502 3.5% 1462
Guardians 40-42 1472 1505 21.9% 1461
Braves 38-45 1484 1494 24.3% 1458
Twins 40-44 1475 1495 26.3% 1458
Pirates 35-50 1482 1512 0.1% 1452
Royals 39-45 1459 1498 11.8% 1441

The injuries just keep coming for the Diamondbacks, most recently last Monday when they placed Corbin Carroll on the IL with a fractured wrist. They had been managing to stay afloat despite losing Corbin Burnes at the start of the month, but it might be too much to do so while also being without Carroll. The Snakes slipped back below .500 after getting swept by the Marlins last weekend. Eight of Arizona’s final 14 games before the All-Star break come against the Giants and Padres.

The Marlins are riding a seven-game winning streak — their longest since 2022 — into this week after sweeping both the Giants and Diamondbacks and taking their series finale against the Braves to cap the week before. It’s been an up-and-down season for Miami, but the offense has been clicking during this hot streak. Otto Lopez (10-game hitting streak), Agustín Ramírez (11 hits last week), and Kyle Stowers (three home runs during the winning streak) have been the standouts, and they’re getting clutch hits in all the big spots. On Sunday, Lopez hit the go-ahead two-run single in the eighth inning, and Stowers followed up with a three-run double to seal the victory.

With their impressive series win over the Rays last weekend, the Orioles have compiled a 15-11 record in June. That’s much better than their abysmal first two months of the season but not good enough to get them back into the playoff race. To make matters worse, injuries have continued to plague the roster; Adley Rutschman hit the IL for the first time in his career with an oblique injury, and Zach Eflin left his start Saturday after just a single inning. It’s probably time to throw in the towel and start looking forward to 2026 and beyond.

The Royals snapped a six-game losing streak with a win on Saturday — their first win at home since May 31. They are in the midst of a 6-15 stretch that’s dropped them from three games over .500 to six below. The pitching staff is doing its job; Kansas City has allowed more than five runs just four times in the past 21 games and the second-fewest total in the AL during that span. The lineup remains the problem, as the Royals have the fourth-worst offense (83 wRC+) in the majors this season.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Athletics 34-52 1431 1506 0.3% 1408
Nationals 35-49 1429 1502 0.0% 1407
White Sox 28-56 1401 1504 0.0% 1382
Rockies 19-65 1348 1524 0.0% 1335

The White Sox have a 19-24 record at home following their series win over the Giants last weekend. That’s respectable — especially after their historically bad season last year. Unfortunately, they are 9-32 on the road, which is where they’ll be again this week when they travel to play the Dodgers and Rockies. Amazingly enough, the Rockies have won fewer home games than the White Sox have won on the road. It’ll be a battle between the two worst ballclubs in baseball in the launching pad of Coors Field. Sounds fun!


FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 16–22

As we approach the midpoint of the season, the playoff races in both leagues are as muddy as ever. With July just around the corner and the trade deadline looming, the teams on the fringes of the postseason picture need to figure out if they’re truly contenders or if they need to start looking toward the future.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 9–15

It was an exciting weekend of baseball, with nine series ending in a sweep, but that was all overshadowed by the unexpected trade of Rafael Devers on Sunday night.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 2–8

As June gets underway, the American League playoff picture is as muddy as ever — 12 teams are within 4 1/2 games of a playoff berth right now. Meanwhile, in the National League, there’s a pretty clear line between the haves and the have-nots, but even if the playoff picture isn’t as crowded, the races should provide plenty of drama this summer.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Tigers 43-24 1574 1489 96.2% 1588 0
2 Mets 42-24 1568 1480 93.0% 1581 3
3 Yankees 39-25 1568 1500 97.7% 1577 -1
4 Cubs 40-25 1567 1507 87.1% 1576 0
5 Dodgers 39-27 1568 1509 98.0% 1572 -2
6 Astros 36-29 1546 1500 76.4% 1549 2
7 Rays 35-30 1547 1505 47.1% 1544 6
8 Cardinals 36-29 1544 1510 43.0% 1542 -1
9 Blue Jays 35-30 1544 1510 52.7% 1541 3
10 Giants 38-28 1534 1499 60.4% 1538 6
11 Twins 35-30 1530 1487 58.6% 1527 -1
12 Padres 37-27 1520 1490 53.0% 1526 3
13 Phillies 37-28 1520 1489 76.9% 1524 -7
14 Brewers 35-31 1523 1489 27.9% 1516 0
15 Guardians 34-30 1515 1506 40.0% 1513 -4
16 Royals 34-32 1501 1492 34.0% 1495 1
17 Mariners 33-31 1494 1496 54.8% 1491 -8
18 Reds 33-33 1497 1490 7.2% 1485 5
19 Red Sox 32-35 1487 1493 18.7% 1473 3
20 Diamondbacks 31-34 1485 1508 25.6% 1470 1
21 Rangers 31-35 1479 1506 18.0% 1467 -2
22 Angels 30-34 1478 1498 2.2% 1466 2
23 Nationals 30-35 1479 1509 1.3% 1463 -3
24 Pirates 26-40 1469 1511 0.5% 1448 3
25 Braves 27-37 1461 1498 26.0% 1442 -7
26 Orioles 26-38 1458 1492 3.0% 1440 -1
27 Athletics 26-41 1417 1503 0.6% 1401 1
28 Marlins 24-39 1411 1509 0.0% 1397 -2
29 White Sox 22-44 1398 1500 0.0% 1383 0
30 Rockies 12-53 1320 1528 0.0% 1313 0

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Tigers 43-24 1574 1489 96.2% 1588
Mets 42-24 1568 1480 93.0% 1581
Yankees 39-25 1568 1500 97.7% 1577
Cubs 40-25 1567 1507 87.1% 1576

The Tigers and Cubs battled through a competitive and entertaining series last weekend, with Detroit taking two of the three games. It’s far too early to call this a World Series preview, but it’s certainly a possibility with the way these two teams are playing. The Tigers went 4-3 in their week of games against the two Chicago clubs, and their bullpen blew leads in all three of their losses. For now, this seems like more of a blip than a true concern — the Detroit bullpen ranks sixth in the majors with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.29 WPA, even if the peripherals (3.81 FIP, 3.71 SIERA) aren’t quite as strong — but it’s something to monitor as the season progresses.

The Mets split their NLCS rematch against the Dodgers in Los Angeles last week, with three of the four games being decided by one run, and then went to Colorado and swept the hapless Rockies. Pete Alonso was a one-man wrecking crew; he blasted five home runs and now has 17 on the season. New York has gone 12-3 since falling to three games out of first place with a loss on May 23, and as the Phillies continue to struggle, the Mets begin this week ahead 4 1/2 games in the NL East.

In their first matchup against the Red Sox this season, the Yankees lost two of the three games and allowed 27 runs in the series. Earlier in the week, New York placed closer Luke Weaver on the injured list with a hamstring strain, but the team did get back dynamic infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.. After missing over a month with an oblique injury, Chisholm went 8-for-21 with two home runs and three stolen bases.

Tier 2 – The Dodgers
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Dodgers 39-27 1568 1509 98.0% 1572

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Dodgers. They’re 10-12 over their last 22 games and neither their offense nor their pitching can find much consistency right now. Los Angeles collected 19 total hits in its first two games against the Cardinals last weekend but somehow managed to score just a single run, going 1-for-25 with runners in scoring position. The Dodgers salvaged the series with seven runs on Sunday in a 7-3 win, but their bats are still having a relatively rough go of things since their 18-run outburst against the Yankees the previous Saturday. The concerns about their lineup pale in comparison to the injury woes of their pitching staff, as Tony Gonsolin became the latest pitcher to go down with elbow discomfort. The good news is the Dodgers activated relievers Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates off the IL last weekend and spun an under-the-radar trade for former All-Star closer Alexis Díaz, whom the Reds optioned to Triple-A after a disastrous April. While the Dodgers are letting Díaz work things out in the minors before recalling him, the returns of Kopech and Yates should help to bolster the bullpen; the starting rotation, though, is still spread dangerously thin. Things won’t get any easier for the Dodgers this week, when they face the Padres and Giants for the first time this season. Both teams are just a game behind Los Angeles in the NL West standings.

Tier 3 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Astros 36-29 1546 1500 76.4% 1549
Rays 35-30 1547 1505 47.1% 1544
Cardinals 36-29 1544 1510 43.0% 1542
Blue Jays 35-30 1544 1510 52.7% 1541
Giants 38-28 1534 1499 60.4% 1538

The Astros have gotten hot at exactly the right moment. Their surge has coincided with a Mariners slide; Houston overtook Seattle in the AL West standings in late May and padded the lead last week. The Astros have gone 11-5 over their last 16 games, a stretch that began with taking three of four from Seattle, and are now 2 1/2 games up in the division. Jeremy Peña continues to lead the offense during this hot streak; he collected 10 hits last week and had a 13-game hit streak snapped on Sunday.

The Rays and Blue Jays continued their rise up the standings last week; Tampa Bay swept the Rangers and won two out of three against the Marlins, while Toronto took both of its series against the Phillies and Twins. In 16 games since May 23, Rays third baseman Junior Caminero is slashing .349/.388/.825 with seven home runs and a 242 wRC+. A resurgent George Springer, who smacked a game-winning home run on Saturday, has been the most consistent run producer in the Blue Jays lineup.

The Giants tallied two more walk-off victories last week, bringing their season total to eight. All seven games of their games last week were decided by one run, and they haven’t played a game that was settled by more than three runs since May 23. San Francisco is now 22-11 in home games this season, one of the best home records in baseball. After a 5-2 homestand, the Giants return to the road with a 38-28 overall record, which puts them just a game behind the first-place Dodgers in the NL West.

Tier 4 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Twins 35-30 1530 1487 58.6% 1527
Padres 37-27 1520 1490 53.0% 1526
Phillies 37-28 1520 1489 76.9% 1524
Brewers 35-31 1523 1489 27.9% 1516

The Phillies are phree-phalling right now, with just one win in their last 10 games. That lone win came in their series opener against the Blue Jays last Tuesday, and then over the weekend they were swept by the last-place Pirates. The Philadelphia offense went especially cold, managing to score just one run in four of its last five games. To make matters worse, Bryce Harper was placed on the IL with a wrist injury over the weekend, though it sounds like it might be a minor issue.

Injuries have become an issue for the Twins again, only this time, it’s in their starting rotation. Both Pablo López and Zebby Matthews were placed on the IL last week with shoulder injuries; López is expected to miss at least two months, while it’s unclear as of this writing how long Matthews might be out. Thankfully, Royce Lewis is healthy and snapped an 0-for-28 stretch with a hit on Tuesday, and then notched six more after that.

Tier 5 – High-Variance Hopefuls
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Guardians 34-30 1515 1506 40.0% 1513
Royals 34-32 1501 1492 34.0% 1495
Mariners 33-31 1494 1496 54.8% 1491

The three teams in this tier all feature flawed lineups with no more than one or two superstars who are tasked with putting the rest of the offense on their backs. The Guardians couldn’t handle the Yankees and Astros last week, though José Ramírez continued to rake. He carries a 34-game on-base streak into Monday’s series opener against the Reds, and he has at least one hit in all but two of those games. Overall, he’s slashing .333/.392/.556 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 163 wRC+. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. is catching fire after a so-so month of May; though the Royals went just 3-3 last week, Witt brought his season wRC+ up to 126 after going 9-for-25 with two homers. Kansas City also called up top prospect Jac Caglianone last week to bolster what has been one of the worst offenses in baseball. Seattle had a rough week, getting swept by the Orioles and losing two of three against the Angels, but Cal Raleigh bashed three more home runs, extending his major league-leading total to 26.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Reds 33-33 1497 1490 7.2% 1485
Red Sox 32-35 1487 1493 18.7% 1473
Diamondbacks 31-34 1485 1508 25.6% 1470
Rangers 31-35 1479 1506 18.0% 1467
Angels 30-34 1478 1498 2.2% 1466
Nationals 30-35 1479 1509 1.3% 1463
Braves 27-37 1461 1498 26.0% 1442
Orioles 26-38 1458 1492 3.0% 1440

It was the worst-case scenario for Corbin Burnes and the Diamondbacks. First, the ace left his June 1 start with an elbow injury, and then on Friday, Arizona announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the rest of the season and most likely all of 2026 as well. It’s a deflating blow to a club that’s been struggling to keep up in the extremely competitive NL West. The rotation has had its fair share of troubles this year, and Burnes’ injury is the biggest one yet.

In a wide open AL playoff picture, it’s not too late for the Rangers to get back into the race, especially if their offense starts to click. To that end, after an abysmal start to the season, Marcus Semien is 15-for-29 with three home runs and a 324 wRC+ over his last nine games. Let’s see if his teammates follow his lead and start mashing this week, when Texas visits Minnesota for three games before returning home to face the White Sox over the weekend.

However, it probably is too late for the Orioles to recover from their disappointing first two months, but at least they’re playing much better baseball recently. They lost their weekend series to the Athletics, but before that, they had gone 9-2 over their previous 11 games. They activated Colton Cowser off the IL last Monday and should be getting Jordan Westburg back from his hamstring injury any day now.

It might be time to admit that it’s just not the Braves’ year. They were swept by the Diamondbacks and the Giants last week, and their seven-game losing streak has dropped them to 14 games back in the NL East and 9.5 games back in the NL Wild Card standings. On Thursday, they blew a six-run against Arizona in the top of the ninth inning, and then lost back-to-back walk-offs against San Francisco on Friday and Saturday. More concerning has to be the ongoing struggles of Spencer Strider; he lost his two starts last week, both his ERA and FIP are up over five, and his Stuff+ is down about 20 points from his last healthy season in 2023.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Pirates 26-40 1469 1511 0.5% 1448
Athletics 26-41 1417 1503 0.6% 1401
Marlins 24-39 1411 1509 0.0% 1397
White Sox 22-44 1398 1500 0.0% 1383

The Athletics snapped out of a month-long tailspin with a series win over the Orioles last weekend. The A’s peaked on May 5 when they walked off Seattle and pushed their record to 20-16. After that, they lost 24 of their next 27 games before finally beating the Twins 14-3 on Thursday, exactly one month after the high point of their season. During that 3-24 stretch, they allowed 7.8 runs per game, by far the worst mark in the majors.

Tier 8 – The Rock Bottom
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Rockies 12-53 1320 1528 0.0% 1313

Not only did the Rockies finally win a series last week, they secured a three-game sweep of the Marlins! It was their first series win since September of last year and the first time they had won more than two games in a row this season. That winning streak was quickly snapped, when the Mets swept Colorado at home over the weekend. The Rockies are a truly terrible team, no matter how hard Davy Andrews tries to make them look good, but for the sake of all the loyal fans who somehow still show up to their games, hopefully last week’s series won’t be the only one they win in 2025.


FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 26–June 1

The calendar has flipped to June, and the teams that are fighting for their place in the playoff picture are starting to get serious about addressing the flaws on their rosters.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 19–25

We’re almost through the first two months of the season, and playoff races in both leagues are shaping up to be pretty entertaining this summer. All but three teams in the AL are within three games of a postseason berth, which makes for a very crowded field. The NL is a little more stratified, but there are four Wild Card hopefuls hanging four or five games back in the standings.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 12–18

Thanks to a big upset during MLB’s inaugural Rivalry Weekend, the Dodgers are out of the top spot in these rankings. In their place? The Gritty Tigs.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 5–11

We’re now a quarter of the way through the regular season, and even though the playoff races have largely taken shape, there’s still plenty of time for some of the early disappointments to get things right. Last week, it was the Twins and Cardinals who caught fire with matching eight-game winning streaks.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Dodgers 27-14 1601 1499 97.7% 1603 0
2 Phillies 24-16 1568 1509 81.0% 1568 5
3 Mets 26-15 1562 1493 83.1% 1565 3
4 Tigers 26-15 1551 1482 85.4% 1555 1
5 Cubs 23-18 1548 1541 64.7% 1546 -3
6 Padres 25-14 1541 1488 62.5% 1545 -2
7 Yankees 23-17 1542 1503 88.4% 1542 3
8 Mariners 22-17 1537 1501 73.0% 1536 -5
9 Royals 24-18 1530 1477 52.8% 1531 4
10 Guardians 23-17 1523 1492 38.9% 1524 1
11 Diamondbacks 21-20 1530 1523 46.2% 1524 1
12 Cardinals 22-19 1526 1504 29.5% 1523 9
13 Twins 21-20 1528 1486 50.1% 1523 10
14 Giants 24-17 1520 1497 46.6% 1522 -6
15 Braves 19-21 1530 1499 60.9% 1522 -6
16 Red Sox 22-20 1514 1484 48.7% 1511 2
17 Astros 20-19 1512 1496 50.9% 1508 -3
18 Blue Jays 20-20 1512 1512 34.8% 1507 1
19 Rangers 20-21 1506 1518 38.3% 1500 -3
20 Athletics 21-20 1490 1487 15.9% 1488 -5
21 Rays 18-22 1489 1511 14.3% 1482 -4
22 Brewers 20-21 1486 1486 18.6% 1482 0
23 Reds 20-22 1471 1487 7.7% 1466 -3
24 Orioles 15-24 1457 1500 7.8% 1448 0
25 Nationals 17-24 1443 1508 0.3% 1435 0
26 Angels 16-23 1436 1492 0.8% 1430 0
27 Pirates 14-27 1431 1504 1.1% 1421 1
28 Marlins 15-24 1423 1516 0.1% 1416 -1
29 White Sox 12-29 1365 1490 0.0% 1358 0
30 Rockies 7-33 1328 1520 0.0% 1324 0

Tier 1 – The Dodgers
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Dodgers 27-14 1601 1499 97.7% 1603

The Dodgers split a big four-game series against the Diamondbacks last weekend, and Friday night’s game was an especially wild affair. There were four lead changes, and Los Angeles won after scoring six runs in the ninth inning, a rally that was capped off by a go-ahead three-run bomb from Shohei Ohtani, his fourth home run of the week. Freddie Freeman also hit four homers last week and collected 10 other hits. The Dodgers’ roster was depleted even further when Teoscar Hernández and Evan Phillips hit the IL on Tuesday — they now have 15 players on the IL — but they’ve continued to prove they have enough talent to maintain their spot as the top team in baseball.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Phillies 24-16 1568 1509 81.0% 1568
Mets 26-15 1562 1493 83.1% 1565

The Mets took two out of three games in both of their series last week, but the Phillies did them one better, going 5-1 on their roadtrip through Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Suddenly, the NL East looks very tight at the top. New York is still in first place, but its hold on the division is now just 1.5 games, down from five as recently as April 26. The good news for the Mets is that, even as that gap has narrowed, Juan Soto’s bat has woken up; he blasted three home runs last week, the same amount he hit in all of April, and he’s up to five dingers since the calendar flipped to May. The Mets have a big subway series against the Yankees lined up for this weekend as they try to cling to their division lead. Meanwhile, the Phillies return home to host the surging Cardinals before the Pirates come to Philly for an intrastate rivalry series over the weekend.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Tigers 26-15 1551 1482 85.4% 1555
Cubs 23-18 1548 1541 64.7% 1546
Padres 25-14 1541 1488 62.5% 1545
Yankees 23-17 1542 1503 88.4% 1542
Mariners 22-17 1537 1501 73.0% 1536
Royals 24-18 1530 1477 52.8% 1531

So far, the Cubs have faced the toughest schedule in the majors by a pretty significant margin, which makes their 23-18 record all the more impressive. Thankfully, they won’t face another opponent with a record over .500 until early June, as their series against the Marlins, White Sox, Reds, and Rockies will take them through the rest of the month. Chicago was already without Justin Steele and Javier Assad when Shota Imanaga landed on the IL with a hamstring strain early last week. In response, the team called up its top pitching prospect, Cade Horton, to make his major league debut over the weekend, using him as the bulk guy in Saturday’s 6-5 win over the Mets. The easier schedule should alleviate some of the pressure on the patchwork rotation, though the Cubs will definitely want to find some reinforcements before the dog days of summer set in.

The Yankees snapped the Padres’ six-game winning streak on Tuesday, though San Diego got back on track with two wins against the Rockies over the weekend, including a 21-0 drubbing on Saturday. As for New York, the offense carried the team through two series wins last week. Aaron Judge went hitless in two games early in the week but got his bat going again against the A’s in Sacramento. He blasted two home runs on Saturday and collected four hits on Sunday, pushing his batting average back over .400. He enters Monday’s series opener in Seattle slashing .409/.494/.779 with 14 home runs, a 254 wRC+ and 3.8 WAR.

Speaking of the Mariners, their streak of nine consecutive series wins was snapped over weekend when they were swept at home by the Blue Jays. They’re still leading the AL West, but they have two difficult series ahead of them this week: the aforementioned matchup with the Yankees, followed up a three-game set in San Diego.

Over in the AL Central, the Tigers continue to hold onto the best record in the AL, but they dropped their weekend series to the Rangers. The Royals entered their weekend series against the Red Sox on a seven-game winning streak with five straight series wins before Boston’s pitching slowed them down. Kansas City lost on Saturday and Sunday and was held to just one run in each game.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Guardians 23-17 1523 1492 38.9% 1524
Diamondbacks 21-20 1530 1523 46.2% 1524
Cardinals 22-19 1526 1504 29.5% 1523
Twins 21-20 1528 1486 50.1% 1523
Giants 24-17 1520 1497 46.6% 1522
Braves 19-21 1530 1499 60.9% 1522

The Cardinals and Twins are the hottest teams in baseball right now, with each club carrying eight-game winning streaks into the new week after struggling over the first month of the season. Ten days ago, St. Louis was six games out of first place and five games under .500; now the club is just a game behind the Cubs in the NL Central. Pitching has led the way for the Cardinals during their ascent, as they allowed a total of seven runs last week. Matthew Liberatore’s long-awaited breakout is the big story; he outpitched Paul Skenes in a seven-inning gem on Tuesday, giving up one run while striking out eight.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, Royce Lewis and Willi Castro were both activated off the IL last week, giving the roster a much needed boost. Likewise, it’s the pitching that’s driving their success; the Twins held opponents to two or fewer runs in their first five games last week before Sunday’s 7-6 walk-off win over the Giants. The offense still hasn’t really clicked, but their excellent run prevention has allowed them to post a +19 run differential despite sitting just a game over .500. Unlike the Cardinals, though, the Twins are still in fourth place and five games out of first because the AL Central — featuring the Tigers, who have the best record in the AL, as well as the Royals and Guardians — is one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.

Tier 5 – The Muddy Middle
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Red Sox 22-20 1514 1484 48.7% 1511
Astros 20-19 1512 1496 50.9% 1508
Blue Jays 20-20 1512 1512 34.8% 1507
Rangers 20-21 1506 1518 38.3% 1500
Athletics 21-20 1490 1487 15.9% 1488
Rays 18-22 1489 1511 14.3% 1482

In the wake of Triston Casas’s season-ending knee injury, the Red Sox unnecessarily walked into another ugly spat with their franchise cornerstone last week, when chief baseball officer Craig Breslow asked Rafael Devers if he would be open to playing first base. It’s not an outrageous ask from a baseball perspective, but the problem is the lack of clear communication, both public and private, between Boston’s front office and its most important player. Thankfully, none of this has affected Devers at the plate; he collected 10 hits last week, including two home runs, and his season wRC+ is now up to 146.

The Astros placed Yordan Alvarez on the IL early last week with some inflammation in his hand. Then, on Saturday, Jose Altuve exited the game early with hamstring tightness. Neither injury is considered serious, but it’s just another hurdle Houston has to overcome this year. The Astros are virtually tied with the Athletics in the AL West standings, two games behind the Mariners and a game ahead of the Rangers. Both Texas teams went 3-3 last week, while the A’s dropped both their series against the Mariners and Yankees.

Tier 6 – Adrift in the NL Central
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Brewers 20-21 1486 1486 18.6% 1482
Reds 20-22 1471 1487 7.7% 1466

The Cardinals’ hot streak has pushed the Brewers and Reds down a notch in the NL Central standings. Jackson Chourio is clearly talented, but his hyper-aggressive approach this season has led to inconsistent results. He’s supposed to be leading Milwaukee’s offense, but no one is really hitting right now. The pitching has been good considering all the injuries the staff has had to overcome — Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Civale are both nearing their returns — but a team that can’t score runs consistently won’t go anywhere.

For Cincinnati, a rash of injuries has derailed any success the team might have enjoyed earlier in the season. Hunter Greene, Noelvi Marte, and Jake Fraley all hit the IL last week, though thankfully Austin Hays returned from his own injury on Friday. After the Reds had scored just 10 runs across their previous six games, they erupted for 13 runs against the Astros on Saturday. Of course, they were shut out a day later; their offensive woes won’t be solved that easily.

Tier 7 – No Man’s Land
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Orioles 15-24 1457 1500 7.8% 1448
Nationals 17-24 1443 1508 0.3% 1435
Angels 16-23 1436 1492 0.8% 1430

After getting swept by the Twins, the Orioles bounced back with a series win against the Angels last weekend. If you’re looking for signs of hope, Zach Eflin was activated off the IL on Sunday and looked pretty good in a five-inning outing. On the offensive side of things, Jackson Holliday is showing some signs of life; he’s collected a pair of home runs and nine hits this month.

Tier 8 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Pirates 14-27 1431 1504 1.1% 1421
Marlins 15-24 1423 1516 0.1% 1416
White Sox 12-29 1365 1490 0.0% 1358
Rockies 7-33 1328 1520 0.0% 1324

Both the Pirates and Rockies fired their managers last week, though neither Derek Shelton nor Bud Black were to blame for the struggles of their respective teams. Instead, the two managers are just the latest scapegoats for two beleaguered franchises going nowhere. At least Pittsburgh has some excellent pitching to witness every few days, with some more exciting prospects on the way. The situation in Colorado is much more bleak. The Rockies allowed a whopping 66 runs last week. On Thursday, they lost both games of a doubleheader by a combined score of 21-3, and somehow things got worse from there — they needed only one game on Saturday against the Padres to surrender 21 more runs. Final score: 21-0. Ouch.


FanGraphs Power Rankings: April 28–May 4

The calendar has flipped over to May, and a handful of teams have jumped out ahead in the standings. Behind them sit a huge mass of mediocre ballclubs all jostling for position but struggling to stand out in one way or another.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Dodgers 23-11 1610 1500 98.4% 1610 0
2 Cubs 21-14 1565 1541 76.3% 1564 1
3 Mariners 20-13 1559 1501 80.1% 1560 4
4 Padres 22-11 1556 1500 59.3% 1559 6
5 Tigers 22-13 1553 1494 84.2% 1556 -1
6 Mets 22-13 1549 1485 79.1% 1551 -4
7 Phillies 19-15 1544 1508 70.0% 1541 2
8 Giants 22-13 1535 1489 54.9% 1537 -3
9 Braves 15-18 1535 1508 64.6% 1528 -1
10 Yankees 19-15 1528 1499 80.6% 1527 -4
11 Guardians 20-14 1525 1489 41.0% 1526 5
12 Diamondbacks 18-16 1530 1512 51.4% 1526 -1
13 Royals 19-16 1523 1488 41.9% 1522 5
14 Astros 17-16 1515 1498 54.8% 1512 -1
15 Athletics 19-16 1499 1477 22.2% 1499 7
16 Rangers 17-18 1502 1517 39.6% 1498 -4
17 Rays 16-18 1501 1510 23.9% 1496 -2
18 Red Sox 18-18 1496 1477 50.3% 1493 -4
19 Blue Jays 16-18 1496 1515 31.2% 1492 0
20 Reds 18-17 1486 1479 11.7% 1484 -3
21 Cardinals 16-19 1489 1515 13.1% 1483 2
22 Brewers 17-18 1485 1484 17.6% 1481 -2
23 Twins 15-20 1483 1484 35.5% 1477 -2
24 Orioles 13-20 1471 1506 13.4% 1464 1
25 Nationals 16-19 1466 1506 1.3% 1461 -1
26 Angels 13-20 1433 1496 1.3% 1428 0
27 Marlins 13-20 1432 1522 0.2% 1427 0
28 Pirates 12-23 1434 1501 2.1% 1426 0
29 White Sox 10-24 1369 1490 0.0% 1365 0
30 Rockies 6-28 1332 1515 0.0% 1328 0

Tier 1 – The Dodgers
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Dodgers 23-11 1610 1500 98.4% 1610

The Dodgers had their seven-game win streak snapped on Sunday night, but that surge gave them the best record in baseball and a half-game lead over the Padres in the NL West. However, for as well as they’ve played this season, the Dodgers still have their issues, especially on the injury front. Last week began with Tyler Glasnow landing on the IL with shoulder inflammation — he was shut down from throwing for 10-14 days, and the Dodgers are expected to be cautious with him as he works his way back — and then Tommy Edman followed him a few days later after he hurt his right ankle on a slide. It’s the same ankle that Edman sprained last year while he was recovering from offseason wrist surgery and delayed his season debut until August; he did not sprain it this time around, and the Dodgers expect him to return as soon as he’s eligible to come off the IL on Saturday. The lineup hardly skipped a beat without the surprisingly powerful switch-hitter; Los Angeles put up double-digit runs in three games last week.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Cubs 21-14 1565 1541 76.3% 1564
Mariners 20-13 1559 1501 80.1% 1560
Padres 22-11 1556 1500 59.3% 1559
Tigers 22-13 1553 1494 84.2% 1556
Mets 22-13 1549 1485 79.1% 1551

The Cubs won both of their series against the Pirates and Brewers last week, beating up on some division rivals and pushing their lead in the NL Central to three games, the largest in baseball. They could be facing some more injury trouble as Shota Imanaga exited his start on Sunday with a hamstring injury. Not to be outdone, the Padres completed a perfect week with five straight wins. That streak got San Diego back on track after a pretty poor end to April. On the flip side, the Mets lost both of their series last week.

The Mariners’ ascent has continued despite some choppy seas. Not only did they lose Logan Gilbert to a minor forearm injury, but Luke Raley and Dylan Moore joined him on the IL last week, sapping the lineup of two key contributors. No matter, because Jorge Polanco is doing his best Aaron Judge impression, Cal Raleigh is leading the league in home runs, and role player Leo Rivas is enjoying some surprising success (182 wRC+ in 15 games). More importantly, key setup man Matt Brash was just activated off the IL over the weekend after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and George Kirby made his first rehab start as he works his way back from a spring shoulder injury.

Javier Báez lives! The erstwhile shortstop made the transition from the infield to center field a few weeks ago and has suddenly thrived in the new role. He’s collected hits in every game he’s started at his new position. Last week, he clubbed home runs in three straight games and his resurgence is a big reason why the Tigers have maintained the best record in the AL.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Phillies 19-15 1544 1508 70.0% 1541
Giants 22-13 1535 1489 54.9% 1537

The Phillies could use some bullpen help. On Tuesday, Orion Kerkering blew a save against the Nationals when he allowed four runs in the top of the ninth inning, though his offense picked him up with two runs in the home half to walk it off. Philadelphia wasn’t so lucky on Sunday. This time it was José Alvarado who gave up four runs — one in the ninth and three in the 10th — leading to an ugly extra-innings loss to the Diamondbacks. By league- and park-adjusted ERA, the Phillies have the sixth-worst relief corps in baseball right now. Even so, despite the bullpen woes, they’ve won six of their last eight games and enter this week just 2.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East standings.

The Giants are no longer in first place, though they’ve mostly kept pace with the surging Dodgers and Padres. San Francisco enters this week as the third-place team in the NL West, but the club is just 1.5 games out of first. That early-season success isn’t much of a mirage, either. The Giants’ actual record is just a game better than their Pythagorean record and two games better than their BaseRuns record. Meanwhile, it seems shortstop Willy Adames is finally heating up. Last week, he slashed .348/.483/.826 with three home runs and a 251 wRC+ in 29 plate appearances.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Braves 15-18 1535 1508 64.6% 1528
Yankees 19-15 1528 1499 80.6% 1527
Guardians 20-14 1525 1489 41.0% 1526
Diamondbacks 18-16 1530 1512 51.4% 1526
Royals 19-16 1523 1488 41.9% 1522
Astros 17-16 1515 1498 54.8% 1512

Last week was a bit of a mixed bag for the two NL teams in this tier, as both the Braves and Diamondbacks went 3-3 and maintained their places on the fringe of the playoff picture. Arizona salvaged its weekend series with a wild Sunday win over the Phillies to go along with a series win over the Mets. All eyes are on ace Corbin Burnes, who is skipping his start this week due to a sore shoulder. Atlanta, meanwhile, escaped Colorado with a series victory but lost two of three against the Dodgers over the weekend.

Aaron Judge can’t do it all. He extended his hitting streak to 14 games on Sunday — and on the season he has a ludicrous .423/.510/.777 slash line with 11 home runs, a 261 wRC+ and 3.4 WAR — but the Yankees lost both of their series last week to the Orioles and Rays. Luckily for New York, though, no one else in the AL East was able to take advantage of the hiccup; despite going 2-4 last week, the Yankees enter Monday’s series opener against the Padres with the same two-game lead that they held a week ago.

The Royals blasted seven home runs in their victory over the Orioles on Sunday; they had hit 18 total as a team heading into that contest. Following the barrage, they are now tied with the Pirates for the second-fewest homers in baseball. However, that lack of power hasn’t held them back over the last two weeks. Kansas City has won four straight series and is 11-2 during this stretch.

Tier 5 – The Muddy Middle
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Athletics 19-16 1499 1477 22.2% 1499
Rangers 17-18 1502 1517 39.6% 1498
Rays 16-18 1501 1510 23.9% 1496
Red Sox 18-18 1496 1477 50.3% 1493
Blue Jays 16-18 1496 1515 31.2% 1492

The Rangers fired offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker on Sunday, the second domino to fall after they demoted key offseason acquisition Jake Burger on Friday. Texas has lost five straight series and scored more than four runs just three times in its last 16 games, a truly miserable stretch. Meanwhile, the Athletics have become road warriors after going 5-2 on their latest trip — which included a huge series win over the Rangers — and pushing their record to 13-7 away from Sacramento. We’ll see if they can keep up their winning ways when they return home this week for series against the Mariners and Yankees.

The Blue Jays and Orioles each moved one game closer to the Yankees during New York’s skid last week, but the Red Sox and Rays failed to gain any ground after matching the AL East leader’s 2-4 record. Boston has to be a little worried about its mounting injury woes; as soon as the team welcomed back Lucas Giolito, it placed Walker Buehler on the IL with a shoulder injury. The bigger blow came on Friday, when first baseman Triston Casas ruptured his patellar tendon; he’s out for the season after undergoing surgery on Sunday.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Reds 18-17 1486 1479 11.7% 1484
Cardinals 16-19 1489 1515 13.1% 1483
Brewers 17-18 1485 1484 17.6% 1481
Twins 15-20 1483 1484 35.5% 1477
Orioles 13-20 1471 1506 13.4% 1464
Nationals 16-19 1466 1506 1.3% 1461

The one saving grace for the Orioles last was the collective poor play from the rest of the AL East. They started the year with 48% odds to make the playoffs; they’re at 13.4% right now and time is growing shorter for them to turn things around. Baltimore’s series win over the Yankees at the beginning of last week could have been that turning point, but the O’s followed it up with a series loss to the Royals.

The Nationals have been on a quiet run of good play over the last few weeks. Despite going 3-3 last week, they’re 9-7 over their last 16 games. At the forefront are two guys they acquired in the big Juan Soto trade a few years ago. James Wood has pushed his wRC+ up to 157 after collecting eight hits last week, and MacKenzie Gore’s strikeout rate is now up to 36.4% on the season after striking out nine in another solid start on Sunday.

Tier 7 – Laying the Foundation
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Angels 13-20 1433 1496 1.3% 1428
Marlins 13-20 1432 1522 0.2% 1427
Pirates 12-23 1434 1501 2.1% 1426

After starting the season with a promising 9-5 record, the Angels have won just four of their last 19 games. To make matters worse, Mike Trout landed on the IL with a bone bruise in his left knee. Prior to hurting his knee, Trout had been showing some good power — his nine home runs are tied for fourth in the AL — but his overall batting line (a 97 wRC+) left a lot to be desired.

Tier 8 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
White Sox 10-24 1369 1490 0.0% 1365
Rockies 6-28 1332 1515 0.0% 1328

A rain-shortened win over the Astros on Sunday gave the White Sox a rare series victory and their fifth win in their last 10 games. Amazingly enough, their run differential is just a single run worse than that of the Guardians, who are 10 games up on them in the standings. This little “hot” streak has pushed the South Siders ahead of their historically inept pace from last year, though they’re still tracking to lose well over 100 games this season.


FanGraphs Power Rankings: April 21–27

The unpredictable nature of the early season has reared it’s head. You might have been able to guess that the Mets would have the best record in baseball after a month, but I doubt many would have foreseen the Tigers holding the AL’s best record entering the final week of April.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Dodgers 18-10 1595 1503 96.5% 1593 0
2 Mets 19-9 1567 1482 84.8% 1568 0
3 Cubs 17-12 1563 1555 65.4% 1561 2
4 Tigers 18-10 1556 1499 80.6% 1558 7
5 Giants 19-10 1551 1507 59.4% 1552 5
6 Yankees 17-11 1551 1503 83.8% 1551 -2
7 Mariners 16-12 1545 1505 72.8% 1544 2
8 Braves 12-15 1543 1517 68.2% 1537 4
9 Phillies 15-13 1535 1512 62.5% 1532 -3
10 Padres 17-11 1524 1503 41.1% 1525 -7
11 Diamondbacks 15-13 1526 1502 58.8% 1523 -4
12 Rangers 15-13 1523 1517 52.5% 1522 -4
13 Astros 14-13 1524 1508 53.0% 1521 1
14 Red Sox 16-14 1515 1476 59.5% 1513 2
15 Rays 14-14 1513 1508 31.5% 1510 6
16 Guardians 15-12 1504 1487 31.8% 1504 1
17 Reds 15-13 1498 1482 17.8% 1497 1
18 Royals 14-15 1496 1488 29.7% 1493 4
19 Blue Jays 13-15 1493 1515 29.8% 1490 -6
20 Brewers 14-15 1489 1490 26.0% 1485 -5
21 Twins 12-16 1487 1479 40.3% 1483 4
22 Athletics 14-14 1477 1476 16.3% 1476 2
23 Cardinals 12-16 1474 1513 12.0% 1470 0
24 Nationals 13-15 1463 1501 1.7% 1460 4
25 Orioles 10-17 1463 1501 15.2% 1458 -6
26 Angels 12-15 1449 1483 3.3% 1447 -6
27 Marlins 12-15 1449 1516 1.0% 1446 -1
28 Pirates 11-18 1450 1491 4.9% 1445 -1
29 White Sox 7-21 1350 1486 0.0% 1347 1
30 Rockies 4-23 1327 1509 0.0% 1324 -1

Tier 1 – The Dodgers
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Dodgers 18-10 1595 1503 96.5% 1593

Tyler Glasnow made an early exit from his start on Sunday after experiencing some shoulder discomfort. That leaves the Dodgers with three healthy starters and a lot of questions about how they’re going to fill out their rotation. Tony Gonsolin is on track to be activated from the IL to make his season debut this week, but it’s still troubling how quickly Los Angeles burned through its pitching depth.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Mets 19-9 1567 1482 84.8% 1568
Cubs 17-12 1563 1555 65.4% 1561
Tigers 18-10 1556 1499 80.6% 1558

The Mets completed a perfect seven-game homestand last week that culminated on Wednesday with a walk-off victory to seal a sweep over the Phillies. Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez were activated off the IL on Friday, and the young catcher blasted his first home run of the season in Saturday’s 2-0 win. New York currently owns the best record in baseball, but the team had some trouble handling the Nationals over the weekend, coughing up two late leads on Friday and Sunday.

The growth of Pete Crow-Armstrong at the plate to go along with his elite defense and baserunning has been a huge difference maker for the Cubs. He nearly singlehandedly won a two-game set against the Dodgers last week, collecting six hits, two home runs, and two stolen bases. His evolution is one of many reasons why the Cubs have the best offense in baseball through the first month of the season.

The Tigers won their third straight series with a sweep of the Orioles as the exclamation point over the weekend. They’re currently the best team in the American League thanks to a pitching staff that’s allowed the fewest runs in the league. Unlike last year’s surprising playoff club, Detroit’s starting rotation has been a strength, posting the second lowest park- and league-adjusted ERA in baseball. Tarik Skubal has obviously been the headliner, but the Tigers have gotten strong contributions from all five starters this season.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Giants 19-10 1551 1507 59.4% 1552
Yankees 17-11 1551 1503 83.8% 1551
Mariners 16-12 1545 1505 72.8% 1544
Braves 12-15 1543 1517 68.2% 1537
Phillies 15-13 1535 1512 62.5% 1532

The Yankees salvaged what had been a rough week with a doubleheader sweep of the Blue Jays on Sunday. With those two victories, they maintained their two-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL East. Aaron Judge has been hitting at an all-time-great pace, even as he has only two home runs over the last two weeks. He enters this week with a .406/.500/.717 slash line, eight home runs, a 247 wRC+, and 2.7 WAR. Unlike some recent seasons, Judge is far from the only offensive force in the lineup; Cody Bellinger is the only Yankee with at least 50 plate appearance and a wRC+ below 100. That high-powered offense has covered up some bullpen woes. Devin Williams has had a rough start to his Yankees tenure; another blown save on Friday shot his ERA up to 11.25, and he’s been removed from the closer role until he can get things back on track.

The Mariners may have dodged a bullet on Friday, when Logan Gilbert was removed from his start after pitching just three innings. He was diagnosed with a Grade 1 flexor strain rather than anything more serious. As it is, he’ll join George Kirby on the IL, and suddenly Seattle’s stellar starting rotation looks a lot thinner than it has in a long time. Thankfully, the bats have stepped up. With a 126 wRC+, the Mariners currently boast the second-best offense in baseball, and Cal Raleigh and his major league-leading 10 home runs are a big reason why.

Don’t look now, but the Braves have won three straight series and seven of their last nine games, putting them just three games under .500. It’s been quite a turnaround from their 0-7 start, though they’re not out of the woods yet. After making just one start this season, Spencer Strider returned to the IL last week with a hamstring strain. It should be about a month before Atlanta welcomes back both the ace and Ronald Acuña Jr., who is ramping up but has yet to begin a rehab assignment.

The Phillies snapped a five-game losing streak with a win on Saturday over the Cubs and backed it up with an extra-innings victory on Sunday night. There’s considerable daylight between them and the Mets atop the NL East — four games is the largest division lead in baseball — though it’s far too early to panic in Philadelphia. Encouragingly, Aaron Nola spun a seven-inning gem in his start on Sunday to snap out of his early-season funk.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Padres 17-11 1524 1503 41.1% 1525
Diamondbacks 15-13 1526 1502 58.8% 1523
Rangers 15-13 1523 1517 52.5% 1522
Astros 14-13 1524 1508 53.0% 1521
Red Sox 16-14 1515 1476 59.5% 1513

The Rangers dropped their third straight series over the weekend in ugly fashion, losing Sunday’s rubber match with the Giants when Heliot Ramos led off the ninth and hit a walk-off dribbler back to the pitcher, courtesy of two throwing errors. It was their third walk-off loss of the week. Their vaunted offense has scored the fewest runs per game in the majors this season. The scorching starts of Wyatt Langford (215 wRC+) and Josh Smith (148) have been offset by the woes of Jake Burger (46 wRC+), Marcus Semien (25), and Joc Pederson (13). Making matters worse, Corey Seager (133 wRC+) landed on the IL last week with a right hamstring strain, though he’s not expected to miss much more time than the minimum 10 days.

Tier 5 – The Muddy Middle
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Rays 14-14 1513 1508 31.5% 1510
Guardians 15-12 1504 1487 31.8% 1504
Reds 15-13 1498 1482 17.8% 1497
Royals 14-15 1496 1488 29.7% 1493
Blue Jays 13-15 1493 1515 29.8% 1490
Brewers 14-15 1489 1490 26.0% 1485

The Rays bounced back nicely last week, winning a series in Arizona before sweeping the Padres in San Diego. Both of their victories against the Diamondbacks came in extra innings, and the pitching staff held the Friars to just three runs in three games. Maybe getting out of Tampa was exactly what they needed to give them a spark — that and Chandler Simpson running wild in center field and on the basepaths.

The Reds swept the Rockies over the weekend and now have a modest four-game winning streak going. The pitching has continued to impress and Elly De La Cruz is starting to heat up; he’s riding an 11-game hit streak. More importantly, he’s getting support from elsewhere in the lineup. Noelvi Marte collected 10 hits last week, including two home runs, and with a 221 wRC+ in 12 games (54 plate appearances), Austin Hays has provided a jolt to the offense since making his season debut on April 15.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Twins 12-16 1487 1479 40.3% 1483
Athletics 14-14 1477 1476 16.3% 1476
Cardinals 12-16 1474 1513 12.0% 1470
Nationals 13-15 1463 1501 1.7% 1460
Orioles 10-17 1463 1501 15.2% 1458

The Orioles’ struggles have continued unabated. It’s not just their starting rotation, either. There was some hope that the offense would be able to carry the load until Zach Eflin or Grayson Rodriguez returned. Unfortunately, the lineup scored just 10 runs in six games last week, and key contributors like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Jordan Westburg have gone cold. Cedric Mullins is essentially carrying the offense by himself. Baltimore has a critical three-game series against the Yankees this week, and it could be a bellwether for how the rest of this season is going to go.

Tier 7 – Laying the Foundation
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Angels 12-15 1449 1483 3.3% 1447
Marlins 12-15 1449 1516 1.0% 1446
Pirates 11-18 1450 1491 4.9% 1445

The Marlins called up Agustín Ramírez on Monday and he promptly clubbed nine hits, three home runs, and four doubles during his first week in the big leagues. Miami’s offense as a whole hasn’t been all that bad, just a bit below league average. Rather, it’s the pitching that has let the team down. Max Meyer’s breakout has been great to see, but the rest of the starting rotation has been a mess, and the bullpen has been one of the worst units in baseball.

Tier 8 – Hope Deferred
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
White Sox 7-21 1350 1486 0.0% 1347
Rockies 4-23 1327 1509 0.0% 1324

It’s probably too early to think about the Rockies “besting” the historically bad season the White Sox endured last year, but it’s the end of April and Colorado has won just four games. Things have been so bad that even when something exciting happens — like Jordan Beck’s five home runs in the span of two days last week — the team still finds a way to lose.