On a recent podcast episode, Eric Longenhangen and I discussed the premise for this article, which is another way of asking which organizations are healthiest in the short-to-medium term. The factor that goes furthest towards answering that question is present on-field talent, although salary, controlled years, the presence of impact minor leaguers on the horizon, and front-office quality are all relevant — as is payroll ceiling, which serves as a proxy for margin for error. With the World Series starting tonight, it seemed like the right time to look ahead at the favorites for the five World Series beyond this one.

I’ve experimented with some objective ways of measuring organizational health. I think it’s ultimately possible to produce an algorithm that would do a solid job, ranking teams objectively in a number of key categories. It would also require considerable time. Eager to arrive at some kind of answer, I’ve settled for subjective assessment for this version of the post, but I intend to work on something more systematic in the winter.

Here are the criteria I’ve considered to produce these rankings: short-term MLB talent, long-term MLB talent/upper-minors prospects, lower-minors prospects/trade capital, payroll ceiling, MLB coaching/front office, and amateur signings (draft and international). You could quibble and combine or separate a few of those groupings, or argue some of these can’t be quantified properly. You may be right, but we’ll keep tweaking things until they are.

I had originally intended to limit this list to five teams for purposes of symmetry, but the top tier looked like seven teams to me, and the sources by whom I ran this list agreed. In the same way that the I approached the Trade Value Rankings from the point of view of a medium-payroll, medium-term-focused team, I’ve undertook this exercise by asking which team would be most attractive to a prospect GM if his or her only interest is to win the most World Series possible (and not have low state income tax, run a childhood team, or live in a cool city) over the next five seasons.

Without further explanation, here are the organizations most likely to win the 2019-23 World Series.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

The top-three teams on this list all have some reasonable claim to the top spot, but I ultimately went with the Dodgers, as they have a little more certainty in terms of on-field personnel than the Yankees possess, while both clubs feature similar built-in financial advantages. (Houston lags behind on the second count.)

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When we created the FanGraphs Power Rankings this year, we didn’t know how they would play out. At the outset, there was scorn over the Indians’ ranking. As the season wore on, that changed to scorn about the Rockies’ ranking. By the end of the season though, things seemed to work out pretty well. Eight of the top nine teams — with the Red Sox being the one exception — reached the postseason. That in and of itself is not a justification for the Rankings mind you, but it seemed to show that we were on the right track.

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The inaugural edition of the FanGraphs Power Rankings was a bit of a labor of love for me. So, I thought it fitting that we take a look back at how they all played out in graphical view to put the finishing touches on the season.

Let’s start with the timeline of the Rankings for all 30 teams:

Click to embiggen.

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Welcome to the 23rd and final edition of the 2011 FanGraphs Power Rankings! As Dean Pritchard would say, it’s been quite a journey. We’re going to close out the season in three parts — one today, two after the postseason. First, your final end of the regular season Power Rankings, with some end of season awards sprinkled in (note — awards are totally made up by me and may or may not be prestigious (read — are not at all prestigious)). One quick note on the Rankings this week — in the final three games of the season, 20 teams moved up or down, including the Rangers, who vaulted over the Yankees and Red Sox with an incredible finishing kick.

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Over the past two weeks, baseball fans have really pricked their ears up, as Wild Card battles that were seemingly in the bag suddenly became heated battles. As we enter the season’s final three days, both Wild Card leaders maintain slim one-game leads. What’s most interesting from a Power Rankings perspective is that if the Rankings hold as they are today, and the Red Sox and Cardinals come away with the two playoff berths, the eight teams in the playoffs will be the teams that rank one through eight in the Rankings. It’s not completely out of the question. While the Orioles have played hard down the stretch, they are still the Orioles, and anyone would rather play them than half of the Yankees’ lineup. In the National League, the Cards get to play the Astros, who suffered one of the worst defeats in their team’s history yesterday, while the Braves have to deal with the Phillies. The Phillies will throw a bullpen game on Wednesday, but before that, Atlanta has to deal with Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. That would be a tough test at any time, but could be especially so at the moment, as Atlanta’s .296 wOBA ranks 26th in the game this month.

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The end of the season has been exciting times here in Power Rankings-land. This past week, five teams jumped two or more spots in the standings, with San Francisco’s jump from 17th to 13th the biggest. As a result, 14 teams slid backwards, the most of any week all season. Heading into the final two weeks of the season, the real pennant races may lack drama — outside of the Red Sox potential collapse that is — but there is some real juice in the Rankings’ races. Six sets of teams are separated by .002 or less — Tigers and Cardinals, Angels and Rays, Braves and White Sox, Rockies and Marlins, Indians and Padres and Pirates and Astros. We often hear that baseball is a game of inches, and the fact that these teams are grouped so closely both up and down the rankings really illustrates that point.

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If you listened to people like David Ortiz or the “Curly-Haired Boyfriend,” you would think that the Red Sox season was mere seconds from hitting the iceberg. But that is hardly the case. Despite their pitching woes — the Red Sox rotation has compiled a 6.43 ERA in the past 30 days, the next-to-worst mark in the game — the Red Sox aren’t in any real danger of missing the playoffs. The Red Sox’s TOTAL% didn’t drop at all last week, and is higher than it was a month ago. Nearly everyone on their offense is performing well right now, and the one player who isn’t — Dustin Pedroia — won’t be cold for long. In addition, the Sox still have seven games left with their whipping boys, the Baltimore Orioles. A story of the big, bad Red Sox choking would whip the mainstream media into a frenzy the likes of which we rarely see, but in a month devoid of easy storylines, the “Boston’s rapid demise” story will almost certainly amount to little more than media wishcasting.

(As always click here to check out the methodology behind the Power Rankings.)

1. New York Yankees: Last week – 1, WAR% – .676 (1), FAN% – .580 (2), TOTAL% – .665
I can’t be sure given the dearth of news on the subject, but I think the Yankees finally promoted Jesus Montero. Is that right? Can someone double check that for me?

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Last week, I mentioned I was working on a theory, but didn’t have the time to flesh it out. This week, I present to you conclusive proof that the introductions I write for the Power Rankings have cooling properties. I haven’t written about specific teams every week in the intro, but when I have, the results have been jarring:
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I was Hurricane Irene’d yesterday, which killed any chance I had to write up the cool intro I had planned. On the plus side, it gives me another week to test my theory. What is it? Well, you’ll just have to check back next week to find out.

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Last week’s Power Rankings stagnation did not hold, as there was movement up and down the Rankings this week. The two biggest movers, in terms of percentage points, were the two New York teams — with the Yankees moving up and the Mets moving down. For the better part of the first 16 weeks of the Rankings, the Mets slotted in a comfortable 100 points below the Yankees, but with this past week’s separation, the gap between the two teams is now 153. Still, while the Mets have endured second-rate status in New York for the better part of the past decade, they haven’t fared all that poorly in Sandy Alderson’s first year in charge. While the pitching and defense have left much to be desired, the Metropolitans wRC+ of 104 has been sixth-best in the game. Still, Alderson will face some tough decisions this offseason, as he must both resign Jose Reyes and find some quality pitching, and may not have the budget for both. One possible solution could be trading one of their corner guys for pitching, but those types of deals are becoming harder and harder to pull off. Either way, with the trial against the Mets owners not set to begin until March 5th, there is a decent chance that Alderson will have the entire hot stove season to focus on making the Mets better on the field. If he can continue to make things better, it might not be long before the playoffs return to Flushing.

(As always click here to check out the methodology behind the Power Rankings.)
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