Last Tuesday’s 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post. Over the next few days, we’ll endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. We’ll spend more time discussing players who we think need scouting updates or who we haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report.

The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect our updated opinions, and may be subject to change during the offseason. New to our thinking on this subject and wondering what the FVs mean? Here’s a quick rundown. Note that because we’re talking about close-to-the-majors prospects across this entire exercise, the time and risk component is less present here and these FVs are what we think the players are right now. Read the rest of this entry »

Thad Ward should be of interest to several teams come next month’s Rule 5 draft. Currently no. 15 on our Boston Red Sox prospect rankings with a 40+ FV, the 25-year-old right-hander wasn’t added to the club’s 40-man roster — a decision that left Eric Longenhagen “a tad surprised.” Our lead prospect analyst explained that Ward “looked good in the Arizona Fall League, locating 92-94 mph fastballs while mixing in two above-average breaking balls… [and] looks like a possible bulk relief fit right now.”

Three years ago, Ward looked to be well on his way to securing a spot in Boston’s starting rotation. When he was featured at FanGraphs in October 2019, the 2018 fifth-rounder out of the University of South Florida had recently been honored as the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. According to then-Red Sox pitching analyst Brian Bannister, Ward was in possession of “a Chris Sale slider.”

But fate had its say. The 2020 minor league season was canceled due to the pandemic, and the following year, Ward underwent Tommy John surgery after making just two starts with Double-A Portland. By the time he returned to action this past July, he had essentially missed two-plus seasons. But while taking the mound again didn’t feel akin to jumping back on a bicycle for the righty, he did pitch well. In 51-and-a-third innings spread across four levels, Ward fanned 66 batters and allowed just 40 hits while logging a 2.88 ERA.

Ward discussed his comeback, including how his stuff compares to what it was pre-injury, during his stint in the Arizona Fall League.

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David Laurila: You came back from Tommy John this year. Are you the same pitcher now that you were before going under the knife?

Thad Ward: “In some ways, yes. In some ways, no. I’ve matured a lot in terms of stuff I can’t control. I don’t get as upset over mistakes. That’s not to say my competitive edge has gone away, it’s more that I feel I’m channeling it in a better direction.” Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Tuesday’s 40-man roster deadline led to the usual squall of transaction activity, with teams turning over portions of their rosters in an effort to make room for the incoming crop of young rookies. Often, teams with an overflow of viable big leaguers will try to get back what they can for some of those players via trade, but because we’re talking about guys straddling the line between major league viability and Triple-A, those trades tend not to be big enough to warrant an entire post. Over the next few days, I’ll endeavor to cover and analyze the moves made by each team, division by division. Readers can view this as the start of list season, as the players covered in this miniseries tend to be prospects who will get big league time in the next year. I’ll spend more time discussing players who I think need scouting updates or who I haven’t written about in the past. If you want additional detail on some of the more famous names you find below, pop over to The Board for a more thorough report.

The Future Value grades littered throughout these posts may be different than those on the 2022 in-season prospect lists on The Board to reflect my updated opinions, and may be subject to change during the offseason. New to my thinking on this subject and wondering what the FVs mean? Here’s a quick rundown. Note that because we’re talking about close-to-the-majors prospects across this entire exercise, the time and risk component is less present here and these FVs are what I think the players are right now. Read the rest of this entry »

When he was first featured at FanGraphs in October of last year, Edouard Julien was described as having a unique profile and a potentially bright future. A native of Quebec City whom the Minnesota Twins had taken in the 18th round of the 2019 draft out of Auburn University, the left-handed-hitting second baseman was coming off a season in which he led the minors with 110 walks while logging a .434 OBP. Augmenting his patient approach with promising power, he’d homered 18 times between the two A-ball levels.

An adjustment was nonetheless needed. Julien’s batting average had been a middling .267, and his 144 strikeouts and 28% K-rate were suggestive of a hitter who’d been guilty of taking too many hittable pitches. Eric Longenhagen addressed the issue this past March. Describing the now-23-year-old, our lead prospect analyst wrote: “Patient bordering on passive, Julien’s bat is what will carry him to the big leagues.” Read the rest of this entry »

Addison Barger put up the best numbers of any hitter in the Toronto Blue Jays system this season, and he did so with a hitting style that was initially influenced by Ichiro Suzuki.

“I’m naturally a right-handed hitter, and actually switch-hit throughout high school,” explained Barger, who now hits exclusively from the left side. “At the time I started hitting left-handed, around 10 years old, I was obsessed with Japanese players and the Japanese style of hitting. A big leg kick was part of that, and it’s something I mimicked. It just stuck with me.”

That’s not to suggest the 22-year-old infielder profiles similarly to the Japanese icon and erstwhile Seattle Mariner that he grew up watching in Bellevue, Washington. That aforementioned big leg kick is one point of difference; while more pronounced during his NPB days and at times early in his MLB career, Ichiro’s was never as high as the one Barger currently employs. And Barger is no Ichiro-like slasher. The future Hall of Famer had a swing designed to slash line drives into the opposite-field gap. Barger’s M.O. is now the inverse. Indeed, as evidenced by the 26 home runs he hit across three levels, Barger is a basher. Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Lawlar’s fifth stop in what was essentially his first professional season ended prematurely on Friday. Playing for the Arizona Fall League’s Salt River Rafters, the 20-year-old shortstop suffered a fractured left scapula after being plunked by a pitch. The injury — the second to put him out of action since he was taken with the sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft — will leave him on the shelf for a reported six to eight weeks. Fourteen months ago, he tore a labrum in the same shoulder after just a pair of games with the Arizona Diamondbacks’ rookie-league entry.

The progress he’s made in the interim is a testament to his talent. Advancing from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A Amarillo, with two stops in-between, Lawlar slashed .303/.401/.509 with a 138 wRC+ and 16 home runs in 459 plate appearances this season. A self-described “pure hitter who likes to just be athletic in the box,” the Dallas-area native is currently No. 42 in our Top 100 Prospects rankings.

Veronica Gajownik knows him well. An outfield and hitting coach in the Diamondbacks system, the former Team USA infielder worked with Lawlar in Amarillo this year, and more recently in the AFL.

“He wants to get better,” said Gajownik, who is on Salt River’s coaching staff. “He has a very open mind, and the determination to do what it takes to get to the big leagues. The effort level is great to see from someone his age.” Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve made an end-of-season update to the top 100 prospects list, which you can now see on The Board. With the season is over, these rankings are frozen in the “2022 Updated” section of The Board, and aside from me pulling off some stray rookie graduates from this season, there will be no more changes until prospect lists start rolling out this offseason. As always, an arbitrary endpoint to the “top 100” list doesn’t make sense — the tier of players who are about as good as the 100th best prospect in baseball extends beyond that — so this is an ordinal ranking of the top 109 prospects in baseball at this time. This group will likely expand to close to 120 players throughout our offseason evaluations.

What might change now that the minor league season is over? We still have five weeks of Arizona Fall League, the tail end of instructs, and all of winter ball in Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. Plus, whatever info and scout/industry opinions are on their way to my ears and brain are on a bit of a lag, which is especially relevant for the prospects who were in the DSL this year and at instructs in Florida.

This update was made with a focus on upper-level players, ones who are on the precipice of the big leagues and could conceivably play a role in 2023. I used a light touch on the Top 100 guys who are in the Fall League (you can see which prospects are playing there over on the Seasonal tab of The Board) since I’ll be evaluating that group in person over the next several weeks, and that includes players who had good seasons (like Jordan Lawlar) and guys who had rough ones (like Luis Matos). The Fall League is stacked, and I hope to see you out there. Read the rest of this entry »

Bo Naylor made his MLB debut with the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday, and if all goes according to plan, he’ll be a mainstay in their lineup as soon as next year. His tool box and present performance are equally eye-catching. The 22-year-old Mississauga, Ontario native logged a 140 wRC+ between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus, and a pair of counting stats were even more notable. Displaying unique athleticism for a backstop, Naylor swatted 21 home runs and swiped 20 bases in 24 attempts.

His emergence as Cleveland’s catcher of the future came on the heels of a confounding 2021 campaign. Returning to action following a minor-league season lost to COVID, the 2018 first-round pick struggled to the tune of a .612 OPS in Akron last year. A flaw in his left-handed stroke was the primary reason for concern. As Eric Longenhagen wrote last spring, Naylor’s swing “can really only cut through the heart of the zone.”

This past Sunday, I asked the younger brother of Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor if he felt that our lead prospect analyst’s assessment was valid. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »