Archive for Prospects

Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Over the past six weeks, prospects from across the league have participated in spring training activity in Arizona and Florida. Some got into big league games, or participated in the Spring Breakout showcase; others have played in minor league games on the backfields for most of the last month. This spring activity has been enough to move the prospect needle for a handful of players. With the last minor league camps set to break today and extended spring training on the horizon, I’ve touched up my Top 100 list from the offseason to reflect relevant changes that players have made, as well as changes to my own thinking about them.

As you read, there are a couple of things to keep in mind, especially if you’re new to FanGraphs prospect stuff. First, the “Top 100” title is arbitrary SEO nonsense; I rank players as deep as I have them graded as 50 FV prospects or better, and as of this update, that’s 114 guys. Second, remember that Future Value is a value grade. The tools and ultimate potential upside of a player matter a lot, as does the length and consistency of a player’s performance track record and their proximity to the majors. There are players who have talent upside better than their FV grade, but if they’re risky for whatever reason, or if they’re in the low minors, I want to reflect that risk/time element in their grade.

Finally, remember that an actualized “50” is an average everyday player at a given position. Not “average” in the sense that I’m averaging every big leaguer who played that position to create a performance baseline. Rather, “average” here means that the player would fall toward the middle of the pack when we’re talking about the top 30-ish players at their position across a multi-year window. That’s a high bar. Really excellent, tenured players tend to occupy their spot on a big league roster for long periods of time. It’s hard for prospects to crack into that All-Star-caliber group, and even harder to sustain some measure of production for six-plus years of team control. Forty- and 45-grade players are good big leaguers, too, and there are many more of them across the pro baseball talent distribution than there are 50s. Read the rest of this entry »


Weekend MLB Draft Notes: 3/24/2025

Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Another weekend of college baseball is in the books. We saw some interesting midweek upsets, including the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers losing to East Tennessee State. No. 4 Georgia swept no. 13 Florida, Virginia Tech’s head coach John Szefc recorded his 600th win, and UNC Wilmington freshman Cam Bagwell threw a seven-inning perfect game in a run-ruled 12-0 win over Campbell.

Today’s draft notes start off with three draft-eligible sophomores, followed by two smaller-school prospects. It’s more likely than not that these sophomores will choose to stay in college for another year to boost their stock, though it’s still worth following their progress throughout the spring.

Zane Adams, RHP, Alabama
Weekend Line: 6.1 IP, 6 SO, 1 BB, 5.71 ERA

Zane Adams came out on top in his duel this weekend with Tennessee’s Liam Doyle, going 6 1/3 innings while allowing four runs, as Alabama won its Thursday game 6-5. This wasn’t a flash in the pan, as Adams has been one of the better pitchers in the SEC this year, logging a 3.56 ERA in his six starts.

From a stuff perspective, Adams is pretty generic. His fastball sits 88-92 mph, touching 96 with some run, and is thrown from a steep angle. He goes to his curveball and changeup fairly equally at about 15% of the time each. His curveball averages 77 mph, with a 1-7 shape that has plenty of depth. The changeup is a tad harder, more in the 78-81 range, with some late fade that plays well against righties. He also mixes in a cutter in the mid-80s. No one pitch stands out, but he has above-average command of his pitches and they perform better than expected.

Mechanically, it’s a low-effort delivery that he repeats well and gives him the ability to throw strikes. He throws from a high three-quarters arm slot that presents a steep plane on all of his pitches. His front leg cuts off all of his momentum when it lands, and if he cleans this up, he’ll likely add more velocity than what he’d naturally gain from maturing physically. Overall, he projects as a low-volatility back-end starter who has some lower hanging fruit that a team like the Yankees or Dodgers could optimize well.

Antonio Jimenez, SS, Central Florida
Weekend Line: 10 AB, .400 BA, 1 3B, 2 SO, 1 BB

Antonio Jimenez is off to a hot start this year for the Knights, slashing .307/.424/.493 in 92 plate appearances across 22 games. This is coming after a freshman season at Miami where he played in 45 games but hit only .182 with 36 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances. He followed up that stint with a mediocre appearance on the Cape that had a lot of whiffs as well. So far, Jimenez appears to have righted the ship, and in the process he’s anchored this UCF team to a strong start to the season.

Most college shortstops are favorites to move off the position as a professional, but Jimenez is a favorite to stay. This is in large part due to his double-plus arm, which lets him throw out hitters on grounders while going well to his backhand. Arm aside, he shows above-average range and decent actions at shortstop, which put together make for a decent shortstop defender. At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, he’s more physical and a bit stiffer than your average shortstop, which adds risk, but the team that drafts him will likely give him a long runway before moving him off the position. With his arm strength, he could easily slide over to third or play right field to add more positional versatility.

His offensive profile is murkier. At Miami, he chased and whiffed around 30% of the time, which is not particularly good, though he was a freshman. He switch-hit, but didn’t really look comfortable on the left side and whiffed a ton, so he’s dropped that portion of his game and is now just a righty hitter. The results are more promising this year with whiff and chase rates in the lower 20s. Part of this could come from just focusing on being a righty hitter, part of it could be just maturity and playing somewhat weaker competition. Jimenez doesn’t really have problems with velocity; the bigger issue has been offspeed pitches. That trend hasn’t shifted, but he’s gotten better overall at making contact. Aside from the whiff rate, Jimenez shows above average power and is able to lift the ball enough to make use of it. It’s an exciting profile, and I could see a team taking him early Day Two and signing him if his improved whiff rate holds.

Cam Tilly, RHP, Auburn
Weekend Line: 1.0 IP, 3 SO, 0 BB, 0.00 ERA

Cam Tilly had draft interest coming out of high school, but after he set his price higher than what teams were comfortable paying, he ended up going to Auburn instead. Since then, he has been a mainstay in the bullpen. As a freshman, Tilly logged 24 1/3 innings with a 6.31 ERA and 27 strikeouts, a fairly standard stat line for a freshman who gets SEC playing time. This season, he’s remained in a bullpen role where he has pitched 15 1/3 innings with a 4.11 ERA and a 20.3% K-BB%.

Tilly is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, with a changeup as his third pitch. His fastball sits in the 91-93 mph range with arm-side run, a tick higher than where he was sitting as a high schooler. Tilly’s slider is his best pitch, with a two-plane shape and more horizontal and vertical movement than the average slider while still having bite to it. He spins it up to 3,000 rpm. For his changeup, Tilly utilizes a splitter, which sits in the 84-86 range and features short, hard break.

His command of his pitches is erratic at this point, but his straightforward delivery and clean arm action should lend to better command as he ages. Tilly is high-waisted with a sturdy lower half, and at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds, there isn’t much projection left. There’s room to add another tick of velocity, but further gains will come more in the command and splitter-refinement area. He has the stuff to be drafted, but because he has another year of eligibility, it seems unlikely that a team would draft him with the expectation that he’d sign unless he begins to start more this season. My guess is that Tilly chooses to stay an extra year at Auburn to show that he can be a starter and sign for more money upon getting drafted in 2026.

Ryan Wideman, OF, Western Kentucky
Weekend Line: 11 AB, .273 BA, 1 HR, 4 SO, 2 BB, 2 SB

Western Kentucky is off to a strong start to the season, in large part because of Ryan Wideman. A JUCO transfer from Georgia Highlands College, he is hitting .465/.513/.832 with six home runs, nine walks, and 18 strikeouts in 115 plate appearances over 24 games.

At the plate, Wideman has shown himself to be an effective hitter despite some quirks. He’s loose in the box, and alternates between a big leg kick and a small toe tap from a wide base. He flashes plus bat speed with a top-hand-dominant swing that is long, but to this point hasn’t affected his ability to make contact. His whiff rates are average, which is impressive given his extremely aggressive 45% chase rate. This isn’t an early-season aberration; it’s a figure in line with what he posted at Georgia Highlands. Chasing that much against mid-major competition is concerning, and it’s not feasible for him to have this approach and keep his whiff rate down against pro pitching. From a power perspective, he currently boasts average power, but considering he’s a lean 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, he’s likely to add more pop as he fills out.

Defensively, Wideman has the makings of an above-average center fielder (plus runner, solid arm), but both his route quality and feel for the position are below average right now. He’s taller than most center fielders, and eventually he projects to grow off of the position, but it’s worth it for a pro team to keep him in center for as long as possible because the raw traits to play center field are there.

Overall, the chase rate might end up being a “No” for some teams, but his projectable frame, twitchiness and bat speed are appealing. Late Day Two is probably the ceiling for where he gets picked, and it’s more likely that he goes in the Round 11-13 range.

Riley Kelly, RHP, UC Irvine
Weekend Line: 5.1 IP, 6 SO, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA

It’s incredibly rare for a California prep prospect to be unknown given the vast scouting resources allocated to the state, but that’s exactly what happened to Riley Kelly, who popped up in the spring of 2022. Heading into his senior year of high school, with his velocity sitting 84-87 mph, he decided to stop playing football and concentrate on baseball. From there, he increased his velocity to the 88-92 range and paired it with a 3,000-rpm curveball. He got his first college scholarship offer later in the fall, and by the end of his high school career, his starts had numerous professional scouts in attendance. The Diamondbacks selected him in the 20th round of the 2022 Draft, but he decided to go to UC Irvine.

Kelly was limited to just three innings as a freshman due to injury, and then logged 17 innings last season as a redshirt freshman. He started the 2025 campaign in the bullpen, but he’s since made two starts, one in each of the past two weekends. He has a 3.13 ERA with 23 strikeouts and 11 walks in 23 innings pitched.

Discussion of his arsenal starts with his curveball, which he can really spin. The pitch sits in the low 80s, with plenty of depth and hard bite to it. It gets whiffs but needs some refining; Kelly doesn’t have a ton of feel for landing it in the zone, and hitters have been able to lay off it effectively. Kelly’s primary pitch is his fastball, which is now sitting 92 mph and topping out at 95. It’s vertically oriented with a bit of cut; it doesn’t get as many whiffs because he throws it from a steeper angle. His changeup is a work in progress, but it has some nice fade every once in a while.

His control has been hit or miss. He struggled with walks early in the season, but he’s settled in over his last few outings. At 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds, there isn’t much projection here physically, and while he is a late bloomer from a skills standpoint, I don’t think that changes his projection. Ultimately, Kelly projects to be a single-inning reliever, the role in which he can use his breaking ball most effectively.


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/21/25

11:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, starting early because I have much to do and there are already lots of questions in the queue.

12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: My work slate: James Fegan and I are working to wrap up to Blue Jays list, which will run early next week when Meg has the bandwidth to do something other than just PPRs. After that I’ll be solo’ing the Orioles list. I’ve been on a backfield or two every day this week to lay track for the lists that will follow Baltimore: CLE, LAD, CHW, CIN, MIL…

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m writing my PPR (relievers) and my chunk of a Bold Prediction post, both of which will also run next week.

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I might cut short chat at like 45 min today because I’m going to start my day at either Camelback Ranch or in Maryvale and then wrap it in Maryvale for the night big league game, and I’ve gotta write betwixt and between those.

12:02
Birds: Zach Fruit has had two pretty impressive spring outings, the second against a lineup of BOS regulars. Stuff+ grades strong from public models. Can he stick as a starter?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Fruit’s stuff is way up (one of a couple Orioles for whom that is true) and he’s been sitting like 97. Looks reliever-y to me, but it’s great that his stuff is up this much.

Read the rest of this entry »


Weekend MLB Draft Notes: 3/17/2025

Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The SEC opened conference play this past weekend and there were a bunch of great matchups. The most surprising result was Tennessee’s sweep of Florida, as both teams entered the series ranked in the top 10. At this point, the Volunteers look like the best team in college baseball. Outside of the SEC, Stanford’s Japanese phenom Rintaro Sasaki hit his first career home run on Saturday, and we saw a four-homer day from Northwestern’s Trent Liolios.

Sticking to the theme of last week, these notes are on draft-eligible players who are not currently listed on The Board, as it’s still too early to rank them, but who nonetheless should hear their names called this July. Read the rest of this entry »


Pittsburgh Pirates Top 38 Prospects

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Detroit Tigers Top 39 Prospects

Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Weekend MLB Draft Notes: 3/10/2025

Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We’re a month into the college season, and while it’s too early to make definitive statements about players, enough time has passed for a few to begin setting themselves apart from their peers. As we head into conference play, I wanted to highlight a few guys who weren’t listed on The Board when we launched our initial rankings during Prospect Week, but who have stood out in the early going. One has been added to The Board, while the others might find their way there before Day One rolls around.

Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Weekend Line: 5.2 IP, 13 K, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA vs. St. Bonaventure

Liam Doyle stormed onto the scene to start the year and is looking like one of the top pitching prospects in the entire class. He’s had a nomadic career so far, spending his freshman year at Coastal Carolina before transferring Ole Miss as a sophomore. Now the Friday night guy at Tennessee, he’s made four starts, posting a 0.44 ERA with a 61.8% K-BB%, highest amongst qualified D-I pitchers.

What makes Doyle special is his fastball, which sits in the mid-90s, tops out at 99 mph, and boasts a unique movement profile. He routinely gets over 20 inches of vertical break on it to go with 13 inches of horizontal break, and he generates a shallow approach angle that helps it play up even more. For a variety of reasons, college pitch metrics tend to overstate the amount of movement a pitch will have once a player gets into affiliated ball, but it’s one of the best fastballs in college baseball. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/7/25

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Hello hello, hope everyone had a good week and is enjoying Spring ball (I know I am). I’m here to talk prospects, as always, and whatever else you so desire.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: There are questions in the chat that can be answered via other parts of the site, and I want folks to know I’ll be point that stuff out not to be a dick but to help you understand how to better use FanGraphs and its many tools (prospect writer included). Thanks as always for stopping by. Lemme plug some stuff and then get to your questions…

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: First, the Braves list went live this morning.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Second, I went to see Roki on Tuesday

Read the rest of this entry »


Atlanta Braves Top 40 Prospects

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Atlanta Braves. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Somebody Stop Me From Abusing the College Stats Leaderboard

Brian Hayes/Statesman Journal/USA Today Network

When David Appelman announced on Monday that we were adding college stats to our player pages and leaderboards, more than one person reached out to congratulate me personally. I had nothing to do with the conception or implementation of this blessed happening, but it is true: FanGraphs having college stats could not be more up my alley.

I wanted to play around with the new leaderboard, but this early in the season, there’s little to be gleaned. No pitcher has made more than four starts; no team has played more than 14 games. And most of the action we’ve seen so far has been nonconference throat-clearing, mismatches between blue bloods and mid-majors. The numbers will tell, but not for another few weeks.

So I decided to go back to the roots of the sabermetrics movement. Our college leaderboards might not have all the latest fancy Statcast stuff, but we’ve got FIP and K% and all sorts of things you wouldn’t take for granted if you’ve ever had to calculate a pitcher’s WHIP by hand on the back of a box score in a MAC press box. When we got all that stuff in the pro game, what did we do with it?

That’s right, relitigate award voting. Read the rest of this entry »